Industry gets hit as scope of war expands further

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: UAE demands assurances and compensation from Iran + Abu Dhabi tightens governance for real estate

Good morning, lovely people. The war has now officially crossed the one-month mark, and there’s no end in sight to the escalation.

Attacks on the UAE continued over the weekend, with industry suffering the brunt of the damage. Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah site saw “significant damage,” and aluminium prices are expected to rise further amid the disruption. We have more on the attacks and what they mean for industry in this morning’s Big Story Today, below.

Once again, UAE officials are reiterating that Iran will need to offer assurances and even offer reparations to compensate for the damages it has caused, as Presidential Adviser Anwar Gargash alluded to in an X post.

And the UAE is lobbying for a multinational “Hormuz Security Force” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and escort shipping, though it’s still not clear if other regional countries will back the effort.

Plus: Gulf banks will likely slash dividends to protect their capital ratios amid the ongoing disruption, with some likely seeing more pressure than others.

WEATHER- Another partly cloudy day: Look for a high of 29°C and a low of 21°C in Abu Dhabi, and 28°C and a low of 21°C in Dubai.

Watch this space

REAL ESTATE — Abu Dhabi tightens real estate governance framework: Abu Dhabi’s Department of Municipalities and Transport is implementing a newly updated regulatory framework, introducing stricter governance over real estate projects’ lifecycle to protect the rights of developers, owners, and investors, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office.

#1- Developers must now submit bank guarantees and approved cost estimates to safeguard investor capital from unregulated use during early-stage construction (or before the 20% project completion threshold).

#2- Compensation ratios and refund timelines will be specified for cancelled off-plan units to resolve contractual breaches.

#3- A unified bylaw for Owners’ Committees will be introduced to enhance community oversight, while a new regulatory framework will also be introduced for the management of jointly owned properties.

IN CONTEXT- Abu Dhabi’s fortification of its landscape comes amid rising investor concerns about developers’ real estate debt in Dubai, triggered by the war’s escalating regional tensions. Dug into distress, the market is seeing spreads blow past the 1k basis point threshold for six USD-denominated property bonds by Binghatti Holding and Omniyat.

BANKING — ADCB secures permit to expand into Kazakhstan: Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) secured a permit from Kazakhstan’s financial market regulation agency to roll out a subsidiary bank in Kazakhstan, pending regulatory approval, according to Kazakhstani state media. While the timeline of the subsidiary’s commercial launch remained undisclosed, the bank plans on offering a range of corporate banking services and developing the country’s Islamic finance window.

The big story abroad

Tehran has signaled that it is ready to confront a land invasion by Washington, as 3.5k US troops arrive in the region. The Pentagon is reportedly prepping for weeks of ground operations in the Islamic Republic, which would likely be limited to targeted raids by special forces and infantry, rather than a full-scale invasion, US officials told The Washington Post.

US President Donald Trump wants to “take the oil in Iran,” and indicated a willingness to seize Iran’s key export hub of Kharg Island, he told the Financial Times. Trump said that his “preference would be to take the oil,” in a similar move to what his administration did in Venezuela.

Pakistan is positioning itself as a broker for talks, signaling its readiness to facilitate peace talks between Washington and Tehran. “Pakistan is very happy that both Iran and the US have expressed their confidence in Pakistan to facilitate their talks,” the country’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said yesterday following discussions with his counterparts from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

Houthi strikes send ripples in the oil market: The entry of Yemen’s Houthis into the fray pushed Brent up more than 3% to USD 116.43 per barrel, putting it on track to hit a record monthly gain. The global benchmark is up around 60% since the beginning of the month.

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Oil watch

The UAE’s primary bunkering hub, Fujairah, has seen a significant surge in crude flows, with loadings averaging 1.9 mn bbl / d between 20 and 24 March — a 57% jump from the 2025 average, Bloomberg reports. The ramp-up comes as Adnoc successfully restored loading capacity in Fujairah — which hosts the Adcop pipeline that is the only alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for the UAE — following Iranian drone strikes earlier this month.

The catch: While crude flows have recovered, refined product exports remain constrained. The strikes damaged critical systems known as matrix manifolds, which manage the flow of oil from storage tanks through the port’s pipeline network to multiple berths. Operators are still working to restore full export capacity across the refined products system.

Dubai crude is losing its status as a pricing benchmark for some refiners, as Asian refiners pivot to alternative benchmarks for US oil imports amid soaring Dubai prices, Reuters reports, citing trading sources. Japanese refiners are starting the pivot with Taiyo Oil booking some 2 mn bbl of US light crude for July prices at USD 19 per bbl above Brent.

The Middle Eastern benchmark jumped to around USD 169.75 per barrel last week, becoming the world’s priciest. The price spike followed S&P Global Platts’ decision to exclude three of five crude grades from its Dubai benchmark, anticipating prolonged shipping disruptions.

Short-lived high: Dubai crude’s premium plunged on Friday to USD 23.81 from last week’s record high of around USD 65, after sellers flooded the market with offers, Reuters reports, citing traders and data. TotalEnergies’ trading arm Totsa was the sole buyer in the Platts window this month, securing nearly 35 mn barrels of Oman and Murban crude.

Behind the drop: Unipec, Vitol, Shell, and BP offered Dubai crude aggressively before Thursday’s trading window opened, driving prices lower, traders said. The timing and strict increment rules under Platts’ Market on Close methodology limited buyers’ ability to counter.

When the war hits industry

The UAE’s industrial base is now in the line of fire. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) says its Al Taweelah site in Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad) sustained “significant damage” following recent missile and drone attacks, with minor injuries reported. The company is still assessing the extent of the damage. Aluminium Bahrain was also hit over the weekend.

The impact on supply comes into focus quickly. Al Taweelah — one of two smelters the EGA operates in the UAE — produced 1.6 mn tons of cast metal last year, anchoring a key UAE export chain. EGA says it has inventory in transit and overseas, but any prolonged disruption risks feeding through to downstream supply, pricing, and delivery timelines.

“These are two of the biggest regional players, and any hit to their production and supply infrastructure naturally disrupts the flow of metals that several global industries rely on,” dry bulk shipping consultancy Bharat Maritime told EnterpriseAM in a statement.

The disruption is likely to be prolonged, as damage to key facilities means it’ll take a while before production can resume, Bloomberg reports.

What we can expect on the price front: “A significant premium on aluminium prices globally” is likely, even as global heavyweight producers India and China could potentially fill the gap left in the wake of the strikes, the consultancy said.

Foreign investors are also likely to start looking for other industrial hubs with less risk attached, it added.

Currently, around 9% of the world’s total aluminium supply comes from the region. The strikes are likely to put further upward pressure on aluminium prices, which have already risen to their highest levels in four years, with the London Metal Exchange three‑month contract hitting USD 3.5k earlier last week.

It wasn’t just EGA

Multiple fires broke out across Kezad after intercepted debris fell into industrial areas, injuring six people across three incidents before it was contained, Wam reports (here and here).

It was expected: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that his country will “exact heavy price” for Israeli strikes on its infrastructure — signalling retaliation could extend to Gulf industrial assets after attacks on its own steel plants.

Theimplication: The scope of targets of Iranian strikes has widened from energy to heavy industry, raising the stakes for regional supply chains and export continuity that are already struggling under the pressure of the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Defense capability is still in focus

As the barrage on the UAE continues, with air defenses intercepting 16 Iranian ballistic missiles and 42 UAVs yesterday alone, officials are looking to strengthen defense capacity, and diplomacy is playing a big role.

UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy recently, state news agency Wam reports, and Zelenskiy mentioned that Ukraine’s defense system is built to intercept drones and missiles at scale, and that “this [...] is exactly what we are offering to our partners” in an X post.

The model is already taking shape: Kyiv has been locking in long-term defense partnerships with Qatar and Saudi Arabia centered on countering aerial threats, moving beyond procurement into joint production and shared systems.

Yes, but: Iranian officials warned that Kyiv’s provision of drone and defense support could render it a “legitimate target” — a signal that technical cooperation may be pulled directly into the conflict.

Air defense isn’t the only layer being built

The UAE is also pushing for a multinational “Hormuz Security Force” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and escort shipping — signalling it is ready to deploy naval assets as part of a broader coalition, the Financial Times reports, citing people it says are familiar with the plans. Abu Dhabi is also working with Bahrain on a UN Security Council resolution to mandate the force, even as backing remains uneven across Gulf states and Western allies.

REMEMBER- Traffic through the strait — which carries roughly a fifth of global oil and gas — has slowed to a trickle, choking a route that underpins Gulf exports and global energy pricing. Adnoc Gas has already been forced to tweak LNG and liquids output, with volumes at Das Island running at very low levels due to export constraints.

Gulf lenders are proving they can take a punch, but shareholders may feel the bruise -Bloomberg Intelligence

GCC banks — including those in the UAE — possess the capital strength to weather a two-month escalation in the US-Iran conflict, but the cost of that resilience will likely be a massive haircut to 2026 dividend payouts, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report picked up by Asharq Business.

Banks may need to slash dividends by as much as 50% to keep core capital ratios (CET1) safely above the 13% threshold, the agency suggests. This comes as the sector prepares to absorb a 5-15% hit to earnings driven by rising risk costs and a slowdown in credit growth.

The rationale: Halving 2026 dividends could preserve an estimated USD 10 bn in capital across the regional sector. For UAE lenders, this move would provide a critical “safety margin,” adding roughly 50 bps to the industry’s risk-weighted assets to buffer against the volatility of a closed Strait of Hormuz.

Among local players, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank, and Sharjah Islamic Bank were flagged as having relatively tighter capital cushions compared to the top-tier giants. While the UAE banking system remains a global leader in stability, the report suggests that any institution seeing its CET1 ratio slide toward 14% or lower will likely prioritize fortress balance sheets over aggressive investor distributions.

Banks are saying they can ride out the shock: Banking executives including Henrik Raber, head of global banking at Standard Chartered in Dubai, report “no real impact to date” and point to strong liquidity across the system, The National reports.

The bigger risk may be indirect — rising oil prices are keeping interest rates higher for longer, raising the odds of loan defaults.

What’s next: The UAE is shifting from a period of record-breaking dividends to a strategic capital preservation phase. If the conflict persists past the 60-day mark, these dividend cuts will transition from a precaution to a necessity. Expect banks to lean on the CBUAE’s proactive support packages — including reserve flexibility and loan deferrals — while potentially tightening credit for non-essential projects to protect liquidity.

REMEMBER- Policy support is already in play: As we’ve previously reported, the Central Bank of the UAE rolled out a resilience package to freeup additional liquidity and support growth.

Credit scoring platform zypl.ai lands new funding round

Dubai-based credit scoring platform zypl.ai secured USD 5.5 mn in a bridge funding round, reaching a USD 80 mn valuation, according to a press release. The round was led by US-based Carbide Ventures, with participation from investors including Shukhrat Ibragimov. The funding will help zypl.ai expand into new markets and deploy its synthetic data solutions for banks.

About the company: Founded in 2021, zypl.ai develops AI-driven synthetic data tools to enhance decision-making in banking and finance. Its zGAN model generates outlier data to enhance predictive accuracy under volatile market conditions, while the no-code platform Lucid allows financial institutions to independently build and implement AI models. The company currently serves over 60 clients across 20 markets.

Dubai Investments appoints permanent finance chief

Dubai Investments named Nishant Shah (LinkedIn) as its permanent CFO, following his service in an acting capacity since last July, according to a disclosure (pdf). Shah has been with the firm since 2019, having played a key role in facilitating M&As and, most recently, being the finance director. Previously, he served as director at KPMG Lower Gulf, advising listed firms, multinationals, and large family businesses.

Gold nears bear market territory

Gold is teetering dangerously close to bear market territory, with prices falling 19% from their January peak as the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint sparks an international energy crisis and triggers more stagflation fears, Bloomberg reports. It’s not just gold — bonds, another typical hedge, have been caught in a rout since the start of the war, while BTC is at roughly half its pre-war peak.

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also slated for the largest outflow in nearly four years following an almost 14-month-long rally, with all inflows of this year already erased, Bloomberg reported elsewhere.

Still, some are buying the dip: Gold prices ticked up 3% higher by market close on Friday after banks and money managers stepped in. Persistently high inflation and fiscal tightening are among key factors that continue to make gold attractive, Fidelity International’s George Efstathopoulos told the business news service.

But other headwinds could keep pressuring prices: Central banks could also start offloading gold holdings to prop up currencies, with Turkey already starting to sell and swap over USD 8 bn worth of gold reserves to the same end. Energy import-dependent countries are among those that have accumulated gold holdings recently, and they might look to sell them off in an environment of sustained high oil prices to shore up funds.

However, for now, a slowdown in accumulating reserves rather than a full-blown selloff is more likely, TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali said. Citigroup’s Max Layton expects gold to be higher within a year following a temporary shakedown.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are down sharply in early trading this morning as the regional war shows no signs of slowing down. Japan’s Nikkei is down over 4.6%, and South Korea’s Kospi is down 3.8%. Over on Wall Street, equity futures are in the red as investors await the March job report out at the end of the week.

ADX	9,597	-0.1% (YTD: -4.0%)
DFM	5,511	-0.1% (YTD: -8.9%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,533	-0.2% (YTD: -7.3%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	3.9% 1 yr
TASI	11,076	-0.1% (YTD: +5.6%)
EGX30	46,404	-1.3% (YTD: +10.9%)
S&P 500	6,369	-1.7% (YTD: -7.0%)
FTSE 100	9,967	-0.1% (YTD: +0.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,506	-1.1% (YTD: -4.9%)
Brent crude	USD 116.55	+3.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.03	+3.3%
Gold	USD 4,524	+2.6%
BTC	USD 65,841	-0.8% (YTD: -24.9%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.56	-2.7% (YTD: -5.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	148.74	-0.4% (YTD: -2.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	31.05	+13.2% (YTD: +107.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.1% on Friday on turnover of AED 683.5 mn. The index is down 4.0% YTD.

In the green: Gulf Medical Projects Company (+7.7%), GFH Financial Group (+6.2%), and United Arab Bank (+4.0%).

In the red: Abu Dhabi National Co. for Building Materials (-4.7%), Orascom Construction (-4.0%), and Rapco Investment (-3.8%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.1% on turnover of AED 706 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.2%.

CALENDAR

MARCH

31 March-2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

APRIL

6-9 April (Monday-Thursday): Dubai AI Week, Dubai.

7-8 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai AI Festival, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

21 April (Tuesday): FAO Regional Conference for the Near East (NERC38), Al Ain.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent;
Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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Industry gets hit as scope of war expands further

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THIS MORNING: UAE demands assurances and compensation from Iran + Abu Dhabi tightens governance for real estate