India, UAE agree to double trade, broaden partnership with AI, energy, and investment plans

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: IMF sees MENA growing 3.9% in 2026

Good morning, friends. It’s shaping up to be a busy newsweek, with today’s issue bringing us plenty of diplomacy and M&A news.

The big story of the day is the UAE’s growing economic partnership with India, as President Mohamed bin Zayed’s visit to New Delhi culminated in a slew of agreements spanning AI, energy, trade, and logistics, as the two countries double their trade target to USD 200 bn.

We’re also happy to see a return of M&A as a staple in our issues after a short lull, with another big cross-GCC investment set to take place as Kuwait’s Al Wafir looks to snap up a stake in DFM-listed Unikai Foods; NMDC acquiring a stake in a European firm; and Global South Utilities buying into a local renewables outfit.

WEATHER- More of the same: It’s another day of pleasant weather across the UAE, with temperatures reaching a high of 25°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, before cooling to 16°C in Dubai and 15°C in the capital.

YEMEN — The UAE has categorically denied claims by Yemen’s Salem Al-Khanbashi, the governor of east Yemen’s Hadramawt, that it is running a “secret prison” and harboring weapons at Riyan Airport in Mukalla in a Defense Ministry statement. The ministry dismissed the claims as “deliberate fabrications and misinformation” as well as “misleading allegations” and confirmed that it withdrew all military operations as of early January.

Watch this space

The IMF has revised its 2026 growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to 3.9%, a 0.2 percentage point bump from its projection last October, according to its latest World Economic Outlook. Growth is expected to accelerate further to 4.0% in 2027.

Increased oil output, paired with strong demand and continued reforms, were cited as reasons for the upward revision and current momentum in the Middle East and Central Asia, the report said. It also comes against the backdrop of more steady global growth, with its forecast for the global economy also bumped up by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%.

The forecast makes the IMF among the most bullish on MENA, with BMI forecasting a 3.6% growth clip for the region this year, up from 3% in 2025, while the World Bank penciled in 3.7% growth for the region.

Abu Dhabi-based Lulu Group International is exploring partnerships with Indian e-commerce firms to offer its hypermarket assortment online through their platforms, with a rollout targeted for 1Q 2026, Economic Times reports, citing Chairman and Managing Director MA Yusuff Ali. The move would extend the retailer’s existing omni-channel model in the Gulf to India through third-party platforms rather than a proprietary marketplace.

The partnership-led model is already being used in the region: Lulu sells online through partnerships with Amazon and Talabat in the UAE, HungerStation in Saudi Arabia, and Snoonu in Qatar.

India is a major sourcing base for the Lulu Group, and it plans to expand India’s share of its total imports to 35% within two years from 26-27% (and around INR 110 bn) currently. It also operates malls and hypermarkets in 10 Indian cities, with additional projects planned across several locations.

Background: Lulu had earlier announced plans to invest INR 100 bn in retail, food processing, and logistics in India by 2026.

LOGISTICS — AD Ports Group eyes Nigerian maritime expansion: AD Ports Group signed an MoU with Nigeria’s Marine and Blue Economy Ministry to explore upgrading the country’s port infrastructure and digitizing its maritime operations, according to a statement. The agreement outlines potential cooperation in developing specialized terminals, logistics hubs, and implementing digital trade solutions across Nigeria’s coastline.

Why it matters: This move signals AD Ports' intent to deepen its footprint in West Africa, positioning itself as a primary gateway for the Africa-MENA trade corridor. Keep an eye out for potential long-term concessions, investments, and digital infrastructure agreements.

Background: The move also follows the newly signed trade and economic partnership with Nigeria aimed at accelerating bilateral flows in energy, technology, agriculture, and metals.

Data point

30% — that’s the y-o-y jump in trade volumes on the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange last year, pushing the value of contracts traded to almost USD 47 bn and total volumes above 2 mn lots, according to a press release. Gold futures were the standout driver, with volumes surging 613% y-o-y, as more people flocked to the safe haven trade amid rising volatility.

Happening this week

It’s Davos week: World leaders, bankers, and global business leaders are in Switzerland this week for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, which runs through to Friday. You can go deeper on the meeting’s microsite here.

The UAE is sending what it says is the fifth biggest delegation at Davos this year, with some 100 officials, ministers, and senior executives from major private companies set to attend, according to state news agency Wam. The delegation will be led by Chairwoman of Dubai Culture and Arts Authority Sheikha Latifa bint Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

Besides a pavilion which is set to host a series of sessions, meetings, and media engagements, several officials will take the stage for panels throughout the week. Chairman of Abu Dhabi’s Health Department Mansoor Al Mansoori will join a panel on healthcare innovation and inefficiencies in the healthcare system tomorrow; after which Sheikha Latifa bint Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum will participate in a session focused on the influence of storytelling in shaping global narratives.

Later on Friday, Damac’s Founder and Chairman Hussain Sajwani takes the stage alongside other regional leaders for a session focused on the “Prosperity Agenda for the Middle East.”

TheSharjah Real Estate Exhibition (also known as Acres) kicks off tomorrow and runs until Saturday at Expo Center Sharjah, bringing together more than 110 developers showcasing residential, commercial, industrial, and land projects from across the UAE. The four-day event is positioned as a transaction-focused forum, giving investors and buyers direct access to new launches, payment plans, and on-site agreement execution.

UMEX Abu Dhabi runs from Tuesday, 20 January to Thursday, 22 January at Adnec Center Abu Dhabi, bringing defense and manufacturers of unmanned and autonomous systems together. The focus spans military and civilian applications — from ISR and autonomous vehicles to logistics, energy, and smart-city use cases.

The Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development (ADDED) arrived in Italy yesterday and is leading an economic delegation until Thursday, 22 January to strengthen bilateral cooperation and economic engagement, Wam reports.

In partnership with ADDED, the Abu Dhabi Investment Office will host the Abu Dhabi Investment Forum in Milan on Thursday, convening Italian business leaders and investors with Abu Dhabi policymakers to strengthen collaboration across key sectors as well as boost Italian investments in the UAE capital.

Let’s refresh: There are already over 680 Italian companies operating in Abu Dhabi across energy, construction, advanced manufacturing, financial services, technology, education, and professional services, increasing by 29% in 2025. The UAE has also planned to invest over USD 40 bn in Italy, entering into over 40 agreements for data centers, AI, space exploration technologies, defense tech, energy, and more.

The big story abroad

It’s a mixed bag in the foreign business press this morning, as Davos, Trump, and the EU’s potential retaliation against the US continue to dominate headlines.

Trump’s “Board of Peace” plans are still causing havoc, as he plans to sign off on its constitution and remit in Davos on Thursday. Invitations to the Board of Peace — which some are criticizing as being Trump’s answer to the UN — have been extended to dozens of countries, including the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, but France has openly declined the invitation and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing back due to the make-up of the Board of Peace for Gaza, which includes Qatar and Turkey.

^^The must-read on the topic: Trump Wants His Peace Board Signed in Davos. Macron Declines

Meanwhile, the chatter around the EU’s potential reaction to the US’ threats over its opposition to his claims over Greenland has extended to markets, with analysts looking at whether European countries might go as far as selling off tns of USD in US bonds and stocks, potentially driving borrowing costs up and equities down, Bloomberg reports. Analysts say this is an unlikely scenario given a lot of these assets are held by private funds, but the fact that Deutsche Bank’s chief global currency strategist is even discussing the “weaponization of capital” signals the current risks to markets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty courtesy of Trump.

Speaking of markets, the New York Stock Exchange’s parent, the Intercontinental Exchange, is launching a 24/7 platform for trading of tokenized assets, Reuters reports.

ALSO MAKING HEADLINES- Italian fashion designer Valentino died yesterday at his home in Rome at 93, leaving behind a storied legacy both on the Red Carpet and across Paris’ haute couture catwalks.

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Market watch

Asian refiners are ditching Murban: Abu Dhabi’s flagship crude has lost its edge as cheaper alternatives gain ground across the Asian slate, Bloomberg reports, citing traders. Murban’s premium over Dubai crude hit USD 2.24 / bbl, more than 2x its end‑2025 level, pushing refiners toward cheaper barrels. Upper Zakum, the UAE’s medium-sour grade, was priced at a mere USD 0.10 premium over Dubai after trading at a markdown for most of the past two weeks.

Why the change? This comes as Saudi Arabia ramps up medium-sour supply faster than peers, and refiners in Japan, South Korea, and India lean into Arab Medium and Arab Heavy, alongside Upper Zakum and Qatar’s Al Shaheen, traders said.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.

UAE and India plan to double trade to USD 200 bn as they broaden the scope of their partnership

The UAE and India used President Mohamed bin Zayed’s visit to NewDelhi to lock in a wide slate of agreements spanning energy, defense, space, food trade, investment, advanced technology, and people-to-people initiatives, while also raising ambitions on trade and digital cooperation.

Energy: Adnoc locks in long-term LNG supply

Adnoc led the dealmaking, with Adnoc Gas signing a long-term LNG sales and purchase agreement with state-owned Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), according to a statement (pdf). The agreement converts a previously signed heads of agreement into a binding contract.

The terms: Adnoc Gas will supply HCPL with 0.5 mtpa of LNG for 10 years starting in 2028, sourced from its Das Island liquefaction facility. The contract is valued between USD 2.5-3 bn.

Why it matters: The agreement cements India as Adnoc Gas’ largest LNG customer, as New Delhi looks to make gas account for 15% of its energy mix by 2030. Over the past 24 months, Adnoc Gas signed more than USD 20 bn worth of LNG contracts with Indian buyers — including HPCL, Indian Oil Corporation, and Gail — underlining India’s growing weight in its Asia strategy.

The bigger LNG picture: Adnoc Gas says that by 2029 it expects to be operating 15.6 mtpa of LNG capacity, with 3.2 mtpa already contracted to Indian companies.

AND- Energy cooperation is expanding beyond hydrocarbons: The two sides agreed to promote bilateral civil nuclear cooperation, including on large nuclear reactors and small modular reactors, according to a Foreign Ministry statement.

The scope includes cooperation on advanced reactor systems, nuclear power plant operations and maintenance, and nuclear safety, positioning nuclear energy as a longer-term pillar alongside LNG.

Data and digital embassies

The two sides will also collaborate on setting up a supercomputing cluster in India with UAE partnership, as well as explore UAE investment in expanding Indian data-center capacity, Foreign Secretary Vikran Misri said during a special briefing (watch, runtime: 28:06).

Digital embassies are also in the cards to provide “a safe harbor for data [...] of national importance and strategic value,” the foreign secretary said, adding that no regulatory framework for the idea has currently been established. The two sides will look at the feasibility of a digital or data embassy under mutually recognized sovereignty arrangements.

A defense partnership

Beyond energy, the leaders witnessed the exchange of a letter of intent (LoI) on a strategic defense partnership, laying the groundwork for deeper cooperation across defense policy, industry, and security engagement, state news agency Wam reports. The LoI builds on steadily expanding bilateral defense ties.

Space: From cooperation to commercial infrastructure

Space emerged as a concrete growth area. The UAE Space Agency and India’s In-Space signed an LoI to support space industry development and commercial collaboration.

On the agenda: In the briefing, Misri said the initiative could span launch complexes, satellite fabrication facilities, joint missions, training centers, and a space academy, signaling a shift from dialogue toward shared infrastructure and commercialization.

Investment: Dholera special investment region

Dholera for investment: On investment, an LoI was signed between the UAE Investment Ministry and India’s Gujarat Government to cooperate on developing the Dholera Special Investment Region, a smart city development in Gujarat. According to Misri, the proposed package could include an international airport, pilot training, MRO facilities, a greenfield port, rail and energy infrastructure, and a smart urban township, with specific projects to be finalized down the line.

Gujarat’s Gift City is also in play: Separately, the UAE and India agreed to facilitate office and operations setup for UAE companies in Gujarat International Finance Tec-City — also known as Gift City — with First Abu Dhabi Bank and DP World named as early movers, according to Jaiswal’s post. Our friends at Mashreq are also eyeing an expansion there, after Abu Dhabi Investment Authority received regulatory approval to establish a local subsidiary and launch a USD 4-5 bn fund in Gift City in February 2024.

WATCH THIS SPACE- Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi also invited UAE sovereign wealth funds to consider participating in the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund’s second Infrastructure Fund, scheduled for launch sometime this year.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is already a significant backer of the NIIF, investing about USD 1 bn to become a shareholder and institutional investor in the fund in 2017.

Dubai’s inflation accelerates in December on higher transport and food costs

Dubai’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.99% in December 2025, up from 2.73% in November, primarily driven by higher transportation and food costs, according to the latest Dubai Statistics Center data (pdf). This year-end acceleration highlights the sticky nature of Dubai’s primary inflationary engines: housing, logistics, and seasonal demand.

Consumer prices surged 0.7% on a monthly basis, completely reversing November’s brief 0.17% dip, according to the Statistics Center’s monthly inflation report (pdf).

Our take: Dubai’s inflation story at the close of 2025 is one of supply-side pressure meeting festive intensity. This can be seen by the biggest risers last month:

The housing, water, electricity, and gas category — which carries a massive 40.68% weight in the basket — remains the dominant driver, rising 5.1% y-o-y. While this represents a slight cooling from the 7% highs seen earlier in 2025, the segment continues to be the primary engine of domestic cost-of-living adjustments;
Transport costs surged 3.56% y-o-y in December after a brief reprieve in November. The sector recorded a sharp m-o-m jump of 3.10%, largely reflecting the Fuel Pricing Committee’s upward adjustment of petrol and diesel prices at year-end, before lowering them sharply this month;
Food and beverage also ticked up to 1.18% y-o-y in December;
Meanwhile, recreation, sport, and culture saw a massive monthly jump of 8.72%, likely fueled by high demand during the festive season and major international events.

Also rising significantly on a m-o-m basis: food and beverage, which rose to 0.48% from a deflationary dip in November; and transport, which jumped to 3.1%, also from a deflationary dip the previous month.

For the full year, Dubai’s inflation averaged 2.8% — its slowest annual pace since 2021, Emirates NBD said in a research note (pdf).

Heading into the new year, analysts expect price growth to moderate as the housing engine that dominated 2025 begins to cool. “We forecast a slowdown to 2.5% this year, anticipating slower housing inflation and transport inflation that will be deflationary on average,” ENBD says.

Kuwait’s Al Wafir makes a play for Unikai Foods

Kuwait-based Al Wafir Marketing Services submitted a voluntary conditional allcash offer to acquire a controlling stake of up to 51% in Dubai-listed Unikai Foods at AED 6.60 per share, according to a bourse filing (pdf). The offer represents a 7.84% premium to Unikai’s last closing price of AED 6.12. DFM shows the stock last traded on 9 October 2025.

We saw it coming: In August 2025, Unikai raised the cap on GCC ownership in its capital to 100%, up from 49%, signaling that management was mulling the onboarding of a regional investor.

It comes as Unikai’s balance sheet is stretched, with interest-bearing debt hitting AED 90.4 mn as of 9M 2025 (up 58.6% y-o-y), according to its latest earnings release (pdf). That is more than 3x its reported net income.

What now? While Al Wafir doesn't have irrevocable undertakings yet, they’ve cut a specific side agreement with Mohammad Said Al Mulla & Sons (MSA), which holds 11% of Unikai. If the takeover succeeds, MSA has the option (but not the obligation) to buy back into the new holding company.

No short-term returns: In a move rarely seen in standard M&A announcements, the offeror explicitly warned that the acquisition is “unlikely to deliver short- to medium-term returns.” Al Wafir describes the road ahead as “capital-intensive” and “complex.”

Our take

A regional pattern? This transaction bears a lot of resemblance to Al Futtaim’s acquisition of a stake in Saudi Arabia’s Cenomi Retail last year. A heritage family conglomerate (the Al Mullas) faces operational headwinds and brings in a heavy-hitting regional operator (Al Wafir) to fix the house.

The logic: Just as the Alhokairs stepped back to let Al Futtaim stabilize their retail empire, the Al Mulla family appears to be ceding control to modernize Unikai. The vertical integration allows Al Wafir to own the shelf (via Kuwait’s central market), while Unikai owns the product. Al Wafir is effectively buying its own supply chain.

ADVISORS- FAB is acting as financial advisor and lead receiving bank, while Al Tamimi & Company is acting as counsel to Al Wafir.

NMDC acquires 51% of Spain’s Lantania Aguas as it expands to desalination in Europe

Abu Dhabi’s NMDC Group acquired a 51% stake in Spanish water engineering firm Lantania Aguas, marking the listed contractor's entry into the European market as it pivots toward high-growth water and desalination sectors, it said in a press release (pdf). The transaction — executed through subsidiary NMDC Infra — will see the new entity rebranded as Lantania NMDC Water. The size of the transaction wasn't disclosed.

Lantania Aguas is a subsidiary of Spain’s Grupo Lantania. It ranks fourth globally in desalination EPC capacity for 2024-2025 and currently holds a backlog of c.AED 2 bn (EUR 450 mn). The Spanish firm’s portfolio includes major regional projects like the Jubail (600k cbm / d) and Ras Mohaisen (300k cbm / d) desalination plants in Saudi Arabia.

What’s next? Lantania Group will retain 49% of the company, with the current management team remaining in place under a joint structure. We expect the new entity to start bidding for complex water projects across MENA and Southeast Asia, leveraging Lantania’s technical qualifications and NMDC’s massive balance sheet (with the firm boasting a AED 62.3 bn group backlog as of 3Q 2025).

Why it matters

The move builds on NMDC Infra’s broader push to deepen its EPC capabilities beyond marine works. The subsidiary recently set up a 50-50 onshore EPC venture — NMDCCC — targeting onshore work for oil and gas projects in the UAE. The venture will deliver full-lifecycle EPC services and focus on executing NMDC’s backlog and mitigating supply chain risks.

Another day, another Masdar project reaches financial close

Masdar added another project to its streak of financial closes — this time at home — securing financing alongside Engie for the 1.5 GW Khazna solar project, according to a press release. Khazna is a key part of Ewec’s strategy to cover 60% of the emirate’s power demand with renewables by 2035. The Abu Dhabi project is scheduled to come online by 2028 and will power some 160k homes.

Masdar has already reached financial close on several projects this month, including Oman’s USD 300 mn Ibri III solar and battery energy storage project and a USD 225 mn Guzar solar and battery storage project in Uzbekistan. It also secured a contract for difference for the 3 GW Dogger Bank South (DBS) wind farm in the UK.

Financing is locked with seven regional and international lenders, including Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, KfW IPEX, BNP Paribas, HSBC, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, and Emirates Development Bank. The project’s total cost wasn’t disclosed.

Background: Ewec awarded the independent power project to France’s Engie and local shareholder Masdar back in October, signing an energy purchase agreement where Ewec pays only for the net power generated by the plant, while Engie and Masdar are responsible for designing, building, and operating the facility. In November, China’s SEPCO3 signed an engineering, procurement, and construction contract for the project, alongside module supplier Longi and main developer Engie.

Why financial literacy is the next growth engine in emerging markets

As digital banking continues its rapid evolution, the next frontier isn’t just about smarter infrastructure or open ecosystems, it’s about smarter customers. In emerging markets like Pakistan and Egypt, where retail ecosystems are being reshaped by young, mobile-first populations, financial literacy is fast becoming a catalyst for sustainable growth.

At Mashreq, we’ve seen this transformation up close. Technology has progressed from being a digital channel to a teacher, a guide, and an enabler. Whether it's AI-powered budgeting tools, interactive savings platforms, or in-app financial coaching, we’re seeing innovation that translates complex financial concepts into simple, everyday actions.

Take Egypt, where mobile wallets and QR-based payments are helping transition millions from cash to digital with minimal friction. In Pakistan, fintech startups are embedding financial education into everyday transactions, transforming how people think about saving, borrowing, and spending. These cases are all part of a broader movement toward inclusive financial ecosystems.

But financial literacy doesn’t only benefit individuals, it reshapes the entire retail value chain. Informed customers are more confident spenders, more responsible borrowers, and more loyal users. For large retailers and financial institutions, this opens up new opportunities in embedded finance—from seamless checkout lending to integrated insurance offerings—all built on a foundation of trust and transparency.

It also strengthens operational resilience. Financially educated consumers are more likely to engage with digital channels, explore value-added services, and maintain better credit behaviors. This reduces risk while increasing customer lifetime value, creating a virtuous cycle of growth.

At Mashreq, we believe the future of retail in emerging markets depends on inclusive, tech-enabled transformation. By investing in tools, content, and partnerships that build financial confidence, we’re helping build stronger economies, more resilient households, and a generation of financially empowered citizens.

Mohamed Abdelrazek, Group Head of Technology, Transformation & Information, Mashreq

UAE, Congo ink energy, mining, infrastructure MoUs, GSU buys into 40Capital, and ADIB adopts open finance

UAE adds DR Congo to its Africa trade push

The UAE’s ties with the Democratic Republic of Congo are set to deepen, after the two sides signed 16 MoUs spanning mining, energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and digital transformation, state news agency Wam reports. The agreements were signed during a UAE-DRC Trade and Investment Day in Lualaba province, led by Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi. Specific commercial terms and project details were not disclosed.

The backdrop: UAE-DRC non-oil trade reached USD 2.1 bn in 9M 2025, up 19.2% y-o-y, as the UAE steps up its Africa trade push with an eye on critical minerals and infrastructure-linked supply chains. The DR Congo move follows a string of similar plays, including a newly signed trade and economic partnership with Nigeria aimed at accelerating bilateral flows in energy, technology, agriculture, and metals.

GSU acquires pipeline of hydroelectric assets in Kyrgyzstan

Global South Utilities (GSU) acquired a 51% stake in local renewables outfit 40Capital, handing the Abu Dhabi-based investor control of a pipeline of run-of-the-river hydroelectric assets in Kyrgyzstan, according to state news agency Wam. It is the firm's first foray into hydro technology and consolidates its expansion in CIS countries, coming hot on the heels of its entry into Uzbekistan. The acquisition diversifies its Central Asian power mix beyond standard solar and wind.

Open Finance reaches Islamic banking

Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) has become the first Islamic lender to implement Open Finance under the Central Bank of the UAE’s (CBUAE) Al Tareq initiative, Wam reports. The move places ADIB among early adopters as open finance shifts from pilot projects into live banking infrastructure.

Background: Rolled out by the CBUAE in 2024, the framework allows customers who have consented to the initiative to share bank data and initiate payments via licensed third parties using secure APIs.

The rollout is already gathering pace: Fintechs Lean Technologies and Ziina executed the UAE’s first customer-initiated Open Finance transaction earlier last week, while Commercial Bank of Dubai became the first lender to formally join the ecosystem, followed by First Abu Dhabi Bank. ADIB’s entry brings Islamic banking into the fold, expanding the pool of accounts that can plug into third-party payment, aggregation, and credit services.

Gold, silver hit records as Trump’s Greenland ultimatum rattles markets

Gold and silver hit record highs Monday as US President Donald Trump’s Greenland ultimatum sparked a global flight to safety, fueling equity sell-offs and a weaker USD. With US markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the impact was seen mainly in Europe and Asia.

What moved the market

Investors are pouring into havens as they see a return to the “US-EU trade war,” Fordham Global Foresight’s Tina Fordham told Reuters, after Trump announced 10% tariffs starting February on eight European nations opposing his bid to annex Greenland, to be raised to 25% by June without an agreement. EU officials condemned the move as “blackmail,” with Germany’s finance minister saying Europe’s “limit has been reached,” Bloomberg reports. Europe is planning retaliatory tariffs on EUR 93 bn (USD 108 bn) of US goods, and France may invoke the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument to restrict US access to public contracts and banking.

Beyond trade, the rally is being fueled by renewed concerns over US institutional stability. The Trump administration has renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, and markets are anxiously awaiting a US Supreme Court argument scheduled for Wednesday regarding Trump’s effort to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Simultaneously, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman signaled that a fragile job market might necessitate future interest rate cuts, Reuters reported separately. Markets are currently pricing in at least two 25 bps rate cuts later this year.

A market in flux

Precious metals are having their moment in the sun: Spot gold jumped 1.7% to USD 4.68k an ounce, gold has now risen over 8% this year following a massive 64% gain last year. Spot silver surged 5% to USD 94.4 (up 32% YTD) while platinum (up 1.5%) and palladium (up 1.1%) also posted gains.

Global equities fell as risk appetite waned, with European futures down 1.1%, Japan’s Nikkei down 1%, and US tech in Frankfurt slipping — Alphabet down 2.4%, Nvidia and Microsoft down 2.2%, according to Reuters. Nasdaq 100 futures also dropped 1.25%. The USD weakened on rising political risk, with the EUR inched up 0.26% to USD 1.1628, while Bitcoin fell nearly 3% to USD 92.6k. On the flipside, European defense stocks surged nearly 15% this month on fears about Greenland — after the US seizure of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro.

Looking ahead

Gold and silver rally set to continue: Analysts at Citigroup expect the precious metals rally to extend, forecasting gold to reach USD 5k and silver USD 100 an ounce within three months. JP Morgan strategists highlighted a stronger preference for gold, citing its “cleaner, bullish structural story,” while viewing any silver pullbacks as buying opportunities.

These geopolitical risks could threaten US tech: Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, cautioned that simultaneous pressure on the Fed and Europe could drive investors away from US assets, creating downside risks for already lofty US tech valuations.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It’s a sea of red for Asia-Pacific markets, which are down in early trading as investors remain jittery over US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland, while yields on Japan’s long-dated government bonds are rising. It’s not looking much better over on Wall Street, where futures point to a drop on the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq when markets open later today.

ADX	10,171	+0.5% (YTD: +1.8%)
DFM	6,344	+0.4% (YTD: +4.9%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	5,080	+0.7% (YTD: +3.9%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.6% o/n	3.6% 1 yr
Tadawul	10,917	0.0% (YTD: +4.1%)
EGX30	45,048	+2.5% (YTD: +7.7%)
S&P 500	6.940	-0.1% (YTD: +1.4%)
FTSE 100	10,195	-0.4% (YTD: +2.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,926	-1.7% (YTD: +2.3%)
Brent crude	USD 63.94	-0.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.60	+16.0%
Gold	USD 4,673	+1.7%
BTC	USD 92,633	-0.1% (YTD: +5.8%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.8	0.0% (YTD: +1.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.58	-0.2% (YTD: -0.2%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	18.84	+18.7% (YTD: +26.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.3 bn. The index is up 1.8% YTD.

In the green: E7 Group Warrants (+15.0%), Oman & Emirates Investment Holding Co (+15.0%), and Investcorp Capital (+14.0%).

In the red: Rapco Investment (-5.3%), Fujairah Building Industries (-4.4%), and United Arab Bank (-2.9%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.4% on turnover of AED 581.7 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.7%.

CALENDAR

JANUARY

19-22 January (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development leads a delegation to Italy.

22 January (Thursday): Abu Dhabi Investment Forum (ADIF), Milan, Italy.

20-22 January (Tuesday-Thursday): UMEX and SimTEX, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center (Adnec), Abu Dhabi.

21-24 January (Wednesday-Saturday): Acres Real Estate Exhibition, Expo Center, Sharjah.

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 January - 7 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, International Tennis Center, Zayed Sports City.

FEBRUARY

Signposted to happen sometime this month: Investopia, Lagos, Nigeria.

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit, Dubai.

4 February (Wednesday) Ministerial dialogue for Pax Silica members, Washington, DC.

4-5 February (Wednesday-Thursday): PropTech Connect Middle East, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

4-6 February (Wednesday-Friday): Arab Actuarial Conference, Millennium Plaza Downtown Hotel, Dubai.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 February (Monday-Friday): World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Top Advisors and Investors Summit, Abu Dhabi.

MARCH

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March - 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

MAY

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

JUNE

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Water, Energy and Technology Exhibition (WETEX), Dubai World Trade Center (DWTC), Dubai.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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