GDP grows 4.2% in 1H 2025. Plus: Almasar Education gains on Tadawul debut

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: November was a bad month for stocks + You’ll pay more at the pump this month

Good morning, lovely people, and welcome to the final month of the year. We hope you enjoyed the long weekend, whether you spent it at home with your family or overseas.

We have a busy issue for you to kickstart this short workweek, with plenty of macro updates, fresh tax law amendments, and a healthy dose of capital markets news, as per usual.

The Economy Ministry rang in the National Day with GDP growth figures for 1H 2025, showing 4.2% growth across the UAE during the period, driven mostly by a booming non-oil sector. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi’s inflation rose to its highest since 2023 in October, and the Finance Ministry introduced a fresh batch of tax procedures law amendments.

ALSO- Amanat’s education arm Almasar Education rang the bell on Tadawul, gaining 18.4%, while BlueFive Capital submitted a non-binding offer to acquire a stake in Saudi-listed Gulf General Cooperative Ins. Without further ado, let’s dive in.

?WEATHER- Some fog ahead? The National Center of Meteorology expects foggy conditions throughout this morning, as the mercury peaks at 29°C in Dubai and 28°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to a low of 20°C in the former and 19°C in the capital.

DATA POINT-

UAE equities closed out November down, reversing gains made in October amid a sharp pullback across GCC markets, which saw equities across the bloc fall the most in three years, according to a Kamco Invest report (pdf). This came amid broader pressure on emerging market indices amid fears of an AI bubble, and as oil prices staged a decline, the report noted.

The MSCI GCC index fell 6.9% during the month, its biggest drop in more than three years. Only Muscat ended the month up (1.7%), with total trading turnover across Gulf exchanges sliding 35% m-o-m to USD 45.3 bn, down from USD 69.5 bn in October, according to calculations by CNBC Arabia (watch: runtime 3.03).

ADX’s benchmark index lost USD 33 bn in market cap (-3.5%) during the month, with most of the sectors registering losses, led by real estate (-8.8%), telecoms (-7.5%), and financials (-2.2%). Phoenix Group and Presight were among the biggest drags.

Meanwhile, DFM registered the second biggest dip among GCC markets, down 3.7%, with financials also dragging the index (-5.9%) and real estate (-3.8%) registering a slump.

Tadawul’s TASI was the biggest drag, shedding USD 178 bn in market cap (-9%) in a single month as the index reeled from pressure on heavyweights — including an USD 88 bn drop in Aramco’s valuation. Kuwait also posted its worst monthly performance in 18 months.

Abu Dhabi captured 16% of regional liquidity, while Dubai accounted for 8%, well below the 51% of Saudi Arabia. Still, the Gulf-wide contraction wiped roughly USD 250 bn in market value in November, taking the region’s combined market cap down to about USD 3.89 tn, a 6% m-o-m drop.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- UAE joins US-led AI supply chain push: The UAE will be among several countries attending a meeting hosted by the US at the White House on 12 December to discuss boosting critical mineral and semiconductor supply chains, Bloomberg reports, citing US economic affairs state undersecretary Jacob Helberg.

On the agenda: The US is looking to secure agreements in sectors like advanced semiconductor manufacturing, critical minerals, AI infrastructure, energy, and logistics. Other countries attending include Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the UK, Israel, and Australia — all of whom either possess critical mineral resources or hosting big semiconductor firms.

The summit comes as the US looks to reduce allied nations’ reliance on China in these key areas, especially in AI, Helberg said. The initiative builds on similar efforts from previous administrations to counter Chinese dominance in the sector — with limited success given that over 90% of rare earth resources are located in China.

So far in US-UAE cooperation: The US recently gave the green light to export 35k Nvidia chips to state AI giant G42, after a broader ruling allowed the UAE to use USD bns worth of Nvidia chips in US-linked data infrastructure. The move comes alongside Emirati plans to invest in US AI infrastructure, as well as partnerships between G42 and US tech giants, including Nvidia, to develop a 5 GW UAE-US AI campus in Abu Dhabi — the first deployment under the US’ wider USD 500 bn Stargate initiative.

#2- Mubadala Energy signed a heads of agreement with PLN Energi Primer Indonesia to supply gas from its Andaman Sea fields, laying the groundwork to channel output toward the archipelago’s North Sumatra and Aceh, Wam reports. The agreement covers potential deliveries from the Tangkulo field, which holds an estimated 2 tcf of gas in place.

IN CONTEXT- Mubadala reported a gas discovery at its Tangkulo-1 exploration well in South Andaman in May 2024 and is targeting a final investment decision in June 2026, with a development plan slated for 4Q this year and first gas expected in 4Q 2028. This marks the company’s second deepwater find in South Andaman, following a discovery at the Layaran-1 well in December in 2023. The company inked an agreement with Indonesia’s Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) last year to explore power generation from the South Andaman blocks to address Indonesia’s energy demand and for infrastructure development, and agreed to provide 200 mn standard cubic feet per day (mcf/d) of gas to Indonesian state fertilizer producer Pupuk Indonesia in May.

#3- Top Ships eyes USD 200 mn Dubai portfolio: Greece-based international tanker operator Top Ships is weighing a move into Dubai real estate, signing a letter of intent to potentially acquire a portfolio worth more than USD 200 mn from a company affiliated with CEO Evangelos Pistiolis, according to a press release. The firm said Dubai’s property market is “one of the world’s most attractive.”

The option terms: Top Ships will receive an exclusive right to buy all or part of the portfolio — which includes residential assets — at a 10% reduction to fair market value, based on two independent valuations. The company will make an advance payment of USD 23.5 mn before 31 December 2025, credited against the purchase price if it proceeds or otherwise refunded. A 90-day option window, which will begin once this payment is made, will include due diligence procedures.

#4- Abu Dhabi has approved a AED 4 bn housing benefits package, targeting 3.3k citizens, according to Abu Dhabi Media Office. The package — its third this year — includes AED 2.3 bn in housing loans for 1.8k citizens; AED 1.5 bn in housing grants and ready-built homes; loan-repayment exemptions for limited-income senior citizens, retirees, and families of the deceased; and housing-loan reductions totaling AED 208 mn.

Total disbursements now stand at AED 15.4 bn for 2025, benefiting 10.7k citizens. The tally includes AED 11.8 bn in housing loans for 7.8k beneficiaries and AED 3.1 bn in residential land and ready-home grants for 2.4k people. Repayment exemptions and reductions under the Emirati Family Growth program total AED 514.8 mn for 478 citizens.

#5- Abu Dhabi’s Department of Energy rolled out a long-term Integrated Water Sector Strategy, laying out the emirate's plans to secure and diversify water resources, preserve groundwater, and shore up supply reliability, according to Abu Dhabi Media Office. The roadmap outlines targets to cut total water production costs, reduce network losses by 40% by 2035, and lift demand efficiency by 32% by 2030. The plan also focuses on tightening consumption, upgrading networks, and deploying AI to improve operational performance.

Five core programs anchor the strategy: Expanding and diversifying agriculture water sources; overhauling networks in 28 agricultural areas; boosting residential and agricultural consumption efficiency; installing monitoring and control systems across distribution networks; and rolling out loss-reduction, smart-infrastructure, and consumption-management initiatives. The department will phase these projects over a 10-year period.

Abu Dhabi is also targeting a more balanced mix of water sources through ramped-up rainwater harvesting — with a goal of capturing 100 mcm a year — and wider use of recycled water. Infrastructure upgrades will be managed through the AD.WE platform, where AI tools will support system optimization.

PSAs-

#1- You’ll be paying more at the pump next month: The Fuel Price Committee has set December’s fuel prices, with all categories edging up from November’s rates, according to a post on X.

The breakdown per liter:

Super 98 will cost AED 2.70, up from AED 2.63 (+2.7%);
Special 95 is AED 2.58, up from AED 2.51 (+2.8%);
E-Plus 91 is AED 2.51, up from AED 2.44 (+2.9%);
Diesel will be AED 2.85, up from AED 2.67 (+6.7%).

#2- Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) has launched two digital initiatives to facilitate business launch procedures for contractors, consultants, and investors, according to a press release. The Sun Power initiative provides an entirely digital process to connect solar photovoltaic systems to Dewa’s electricity grid under the Shams Dubai program, while Easy Connect unifies electricity and water service requests under a single digital platform.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Vice President and Chairman of the Presidential Court Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan is leading a delegation to the GCC Summit in Bahrain today, state news agency Wam reports. The summit typically aims to boost economic cooperation across the bloc and advance initiatives and projects such as the GCC Railway and the GCC Common market.

#2- Sotheby’s inaugural Abu Dhabi Collectors’ Week kicked off yesterday and runs until Friday, 5 November at the St Regis Saadiyat Island Resort in Abu Dhabi. In partnership with ADIO, the flagship event features auctions, exhibitions, masterclasses, and panel discussions across luxury sectors including high jewelry, rare watches, collector cars, fine art, and real estate.

#3- The Binance Blockchain Week is taking place today and continues until tomorrow at the Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai. The event brings together global stakeholders from blockchain builders and crypto firms to regulators, investors, and Web3 innovators for panel discussions, workshops, and networking aimed at shaping the future of Web3 and digital assets.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Russian President Vladimir Putin met US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow to discuss ways to end the war in Ukraine. Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov described the discussions as “constructive” but said much work remains. The meeting followed US consultations with Ukrainian officials in recent weeks to revise a 28-point peace proposal criticized for favoring Moscow. (Reuters | BBC | Axios | New York Times | CNN | Washington Post)

In Washington, US President Donald Trump said he will announce his nominee for Federal Reserve chair in early 2026, naming White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett as a leading contender to replace Jay Powell when his term ends in May. Trump said the search, which once included about ten candidates, is now “down to one,” though final interviews with senior officials will continue in the coming weeks. The president reiterated his criticism of Powell for not cutting interest rates fast enough. (Financial Times | Reuters | Bloomberg)

Meanwhile in crypto markets, BTC climbed back above the USD 90k mark, rebounding after a steep selloff, Bloomberg reports. The recovery came after the Securities and Exchange Commission signaled plans for an “innovation exemption” for digital asset firms and Vanguard announced it would allow trading of crypto-focused ETFs and mutual funds on its platform. Despite the recovery, sentiment remains fragile with traders staying cautious ahead of next week’s Fed rate decision.

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OIL WATCH-

Opec+ stays the course on supply cuts in 1Q 2026: Opec+ agreed to keep oil output quotas unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 in its meeting earlier this week, according to a statement. The decision keeps 3.24 mn bbl/d of production cuts in place, representing some 3% of global demand, and keeps in place an initial plan to hike production in December and keep it steady during the first quarter of the year.

The cartel also approved a mechanism to assess the maximum production capacity for member states, which will be used to set output baselines starting in 2027. An assessment will take place in the first nine months of 2026 to decide the following year’s output quotas, unnamed sources told Reuters.

ICYMI- The eight producers increasing output this year have lifted targets by about 2.9 mn bbl / d between April and December, and the increase in supply was among factors that sent Brent crude’s price down 15% YTD as of Friday’s close to USD 63 / bbl.

“The message from the group was clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly,” head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy Jorge Leon told Reuters.

US-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton will reportedly carry out most of the work for the review, unnamed delegates told Bloomberg, adding that an Indian company will be selected to review quotas for sanctions-afflicted Russia and Venezuela, as well as Iran which objected to baseline calculations. The three countries are reluctant to let foreign companies audit their energy industries, the business information service says.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

UAE economy grows 4.2% in 1H 2025 on the back of non-oil sector strength

The UAE’s real GDP grew 4.2% in 1H 2025, state news agency Wam reports, citing statements from Economy and Tourism Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri. The expansion was driven largely by the non-oil economy, which grew 5.7% in 1H 2025, bringing the share of non-oil activity to a record 77.5% of real GDP.

REMEMBER- The UAE’s GDP grew 3.9%in 1Q 2025, with non-oil GDP growing 5.3%.

The UAE’s tourism sector was one of the top seven destinations in the world in terms of expenditure, as the hospitality sector surged, after hotels welcomed 23.3 mn tourists in the first nine months this year, up 4.9% y-o-y. Hotel revenues inched up 7.2% y-o-y to AED 35.9 bn in the period. Meanwhile, hotel occupancy jumped to 79.2%, marking an increase of 1.8% y-o-y, supported by strong international visitor numbers and growth in domestic tourism, according to Al Marri. The number of occupied rooms was up 3.5% y-o-y to 46.2 mn rooms over this period, with the average daily rate surging 4.2% y-o-y to AED 557.
The big picture: The UAE is targeting a GDP of AED 3 tn by 2031. ICAEW expects the UAE’s economy to drive the GCC’s GDP growth in 2026, with our GDP forecast to accelerate from 4.9% this year to 5.6% in 2026. The CBUAE expects growth to reach 4.9% in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026. BMI is more optimistic, forecasting 5.2% growth in 2025 and 5.6% next year. Meanwhile, the IMF and World Bank estimate 4.8% growth in 2025 and 5% growth in 2026.

The non-oil economy outlook: Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI sees non-oil GDP next year growing at a 5.3% clip this year and a 5.5% clip next year. NBK, on the other hand, is expecting non-oil economy to maintain robust growth of 4.8% this year, before falling slightly to 4.5% next year. Moody's expects the non-oil sector to grow 4-5% between 2025 and 2026, supported by projects such as the Etihad Rail network and the unified Gulf visa launching next year, which should bolster tourism and investment flows.

ALSO - The UAE lured more than 220.2k new companies between January and November this year. National and international trademarks entering the local markets reached 36k by the end of November, jumping 48.2% y-o-y.

Abu Dhabi inflation surges 1.5% in October

Abu Dhabi’s consumer price index soared 1.5% in October, the highest increase since February 2023, following September’s slight 0.2% uptick, according to data (pdf) from the Abu Dhabi Statistics Center. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.7%, after inching up 0.5% in September, separate data (pdf) shows.

Prices of ins. and financial services led annual increases in October, climbing 6.6% and mirroring rises in September. This was followed by a 5% uptick in costs across the household equipment and routine household maintenance segment, while housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels — the largest component in the index — rose 3.2%. Personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods went up 2.6%, while transport prices, the second-largest component, jumped 2.4% — its first increase since June 2024. Restaurants and hotels climbed a notable 2.3%, while tobacco prices (+0.9%), communication (+0.6%), and food and beverage prices (+0.4%) also edged up.

A few sectors are still in deflation territory on a y-o-y basis, including clothing and footwear, which recorded the most significant dip for the fourth consecutive month (-9.2%), and recreation and culture, down 1.5%.

On a monthly basis, recreation and culture recorded the highest increase among all categories, rising 3.5%, followed by a 1.1% increase for both restaurants and hotels and transport. Personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods and household equipment and routine household maintenance both recorded a 0.9% m-o-m increase. Food and beverages saw a slight 0.1% m-o-m rise, while clothing and footwear was the only category in m-o-m deflation.

Abu Dhabi inflation is still much cooler than in Dubai, where annual inflation accelerated to 3.36% in October, up from 2.88% in September.

The bigger picture: Back in September, the Central Bank of the UAE lowered its inflation forecast for the UAE this year by 0.4 percentage points to 1.5%, which it attributed to falling food and transport costs. This is broadly in line with the IMF’s revised inflation forecast of 1.6% in 2025 — a significant downgrade from the fund’s earlier estimate of 2.1%.

Almasar Education gained 18.41% on its Tadawul debut, bucking a bruising year for Saudi IPOs

Amanat Holding’s Riyadh-based education arm Almasar Education gained 18.4% to SAR 23.1 per share on its first day of trading on Tadawul, bucking a wider trend of downbeat main market debuts amid tougher liquidity conditions on the Saudi bourse. The stock traded between a high SAR 23.1 and a low of SAR 18.33, briefly dipping below its final offer price of SAR 19.50, before settling at the top end of that range. Around 21.4 mn shares changed hands across 41k trades worth SAR 450.4 mn.

Usual caps apply: Almasar’s shares can move within a 30% band on debut, with a 10% static limit in place for the first three sessions. From day four onward, volatility is capped at 10% as circuit breakers kick in.

A strong open after a heavily oversubscribed IPO: The K-12 school operator’s strong debut follows a well-covered offering, with the institutional tranche closing 102.9x oversubscribed and the retail portion 1.21x covered. The company floated a 30% stake in a fully secondary offering from its then-sole owner Amanat, raising SAR 599 mn. This places it around mid-table among this year’s Tadawul listings by proceeds, sitting just behind United Carton Industries (SAR 600 mn) and ahead of Entaj (SAR 450 mn).

IN CONTEXT- Almasar’s debut lands in a market that’s been under heavy pressure, with Tadawul’s benchmark index TASI sliding 9.1% in November to about 10.6k points dragging its YTD loss to roughly 12% — its sharpest monthly drop since mid-2022 and steepest YTD slump in a decade. Analysts say the pullback reflected liquidity pressures, capital rotating into IPOs, cautious positioning, and a rapid unwinding of speculative wagers after mixed signals on foreign-ownership caps.

Why it bucked the trend: Almasar came to market with a set of tailwinds few other issuers enjoyed. The school operator had a visible expansion pipeline at a time when defensives held up far better than cyclicals in a liquidity-strained market. Its SAR 599 mn float was also fully secondary, meaning no new supply hit the market, and the size was manageable relative to current liquidity conditions. Together, that may have helped strong demand translate more cleanly into post-listing support and gave Almasar a clearer runway than most recent Tadawul debuts.

What to watch: The company plans to deploy SAR 115 mn in capex in Saudi Arabia to expand its special-needs daycare footprint and open 15 new schools and centers over the next two years, 50-70% of which is already invested. CEO Fadi Habib has also signaled ambitions to scale higher-education offerings in KSA, mirroring the growth trajectory of its domestic portfolio, including Middlesex University Dubai.

ADVISORS- Our friends at EFG Hermes KSA co-managed bookbuilding alongside SNB Capital who is quarterbacking the transaction as financial advisor, bookrunner, and underwriter with Clifford Chance acting as counsel to the issuer. Baker Mackenzie is advising the bookrunner, while PwC is handling financial and tax due diligence. Euromonitor International provided market research, and Deloitte is acting as auditor.

Amanat may not be done listing in Saudi: Almasar’s strong debut could also bolster its parent company’s appetite for a second Saudi listing. The Dubai-based firm was previously reported to have mandated EFG Hermes and First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) to explore an IPO of its healthcare arm — a transaction that could raise around USD 200 mn.

MEANWHILE ON THE HOME FRONT (and beyond)-

Hookah brand Al Fakher’s parent firm Advanced Inhalation Rituals is planning a US listing on Nasdaq in 1H 2026;
Dubai Investments plans to list 25% of Dubai Investments Park ;
Binghatti was the latest to join the UAE real estate IPO frenzy as it tapped banks for a potential IPO, joining Arabian Construction ;
Emirates Global Aluminum could be reviving plans for a potential IPO that could rank among the region’s largest;
ADQ-backed Etihad Airways highly-anticipated IPO was expected to kick off after Eid Al Fitr but could be delayed to 2026 ;
Dubai Holding plans to float two of its property portfolio units;
Abu Dhabi Investment Group is eyeing listings for its financial unit and energy subsidiary this year;
Hospitality group Five Holdings also tapped advisors for a potential listing.

FinMin introduces new amendments to tax procedures law

The Finance Ministry has issued new amendments on the tax procedures law, setting new deadlines for requesting refunds for credit balances and granting the Tax Authority new powers, state news agency Wam reports. The Ministry has also introduced amendments on selected provisions to the UAE VAT law, according to KPMG. Both amendments come into effect at the beginning of 2026. The key changes:

Taxpayers now have a maximum of five years to request a refund for credit balances or to offset tax liabilities with a credit balance, according to Wam. You can still submit a request past the five-year limit if the balance arises late in the period or if after it has elapsed.

A grace period of one year is introduced for taxpayers with an old credit balance, where the five-year claim window has expired before 1 January 2026 or will expire within one year of the same date, to file for tax refund. “This effectively means that businesses with outstanding refund balances now have until 31 December 2026 to claim any refunds for the tax years 2018-2020,” KPMG said in its note.

A new exception allows voluntary disclosures related to refund applications up to two years after the original application was filed, if the authority has not made a decision on it.

As for the VAT law, taxpayers are now no longer required to issue a tax invoice to themselves when importing specific goods or services for their businesses in a bid to simplify administrative procedures, according to KPMG.

A new five-year limit has also been imposed for refund claims on excess recoverable input tax, and if it was not utilized or claimed within this period, the right to the tax expires.

BlueFive plans to take stake in Saudi ins. firm GGI as it eyes consolidation of GCC insurance firms

BlueFive wants in on Saudi ins. player GGI: Abu Dhabi-based private equity firm BlueFive Capital lodged a non-binding offer to invest in Saudi-listed Gulf General Cooperative Ins. (GGI) via a proposed recapitalization, which would include a capital reduction followed by a fresh equity injection, according to a press release (pdf). The transaction remains subject to negotiations for a binding agreement and approvals from the Saudi Ins. Authority, the Capital Market Authority, and GGI’s extraordinary general assembly, the Jeddah-based company said in a bourse disclosure.

The company now wants to consolidate existing licensed ins. players through its newly launched ins-focused platform BlueFive Ins., it said in a separate press release (pdf). The dedicated ins. vehicle, which it plans to expand beyond the GCC into broader Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian markets, targets both shariah-compliant and conventional licensed insurers.

Transaction mechanics: GGI said BlueFive’s proposal requires the insurer to first cut its capital to reduce some 50% of accumulated losses initially then immediately hike it again, with BlueFive taking up all newly issued shares at SAR 10 apiece, as it looks to “clean up the company’s balance sheet.” It would likely take a significant minority stake in the company, CEO Anuj Agarwal told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 12:39).

A formal exclusivity window: The structure suspends existing shareholders’ pre-emptive rights. Both sides have a two-month exclusivity period — starting 24 November — after which the talks lapse unless extended. GGI also flagged a conflict of interest involving board member Saud Al Sulaiman, who holds a minority stake in BlueFive.

ADVISORS- SNB Capital is advising BlueFive, while GIB Capital is advising GGI.

ICYMI- BlueFive’s been busy expanding its footprint: The firm recently launched an Oman unit, BlueFive Capital Majan, as part of a push to build a presence in Muscat. The move focuses on investment advisory, capital raising, and cross-border partnerships, and targets sectors including infrastructure, logistics, sustainable energy, and financial innovation. The firm also plans to close a USD 1 bn Asia fund in 4Q 2025 and launch a USD 500 mn private equity fund with China’s CICC Capital.

CBUAE’s November T-Sukuk auction was 5x oversubscribed

The Central Bank of the UAE's (CBUAE) AED 1.1 bn T-Sukuk auction in November was 5x oversubscribed, receiving AED 5.5 bn in bids, with participation from eight primary investors, state news agency Wam reports.

The auction included two tranches: The first is set to mature in October 2027, offering a yield of 3.52%, and the second will mature in May 2030 with a yield of 3.63%. The yields represent a spread of 5 basis points above comparable US Treasuries.

November’s auction — the final one this year — builds on successive oversubscribed auctions, including October’s with 4.2x demand, September’s with 4.6x demand, and July’s auction, which saw 5x demand and received AED 4.5 bn in bids. June’s auction drew AED 6.2 bn in bids and was 5.6x oversubscribed, May’s was 6.3x oversubscribed, and April’s AED 6.12 bn auction had a subscription rate of 5.6x.

REMEMBER- The Finance Ministry recently opened up its T-sukuk to retail investors, allowing individuals to directly invest in shariah-compliant, government-backed treasury sukuk through national banks. The initiative aims to boost financial inclusion and widen the investor base for government-backed financial instruments. Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank was named as the first participating bank, and Emirates NBD joined the initiative last month.

GulfNav closes AED 613 mn sukuk to refinance Brooge’s debt

GulfNav moves to clear Brooge’s debt: GulfNav closed an AED 613 mn (USD 167 mn) senior secured three-year sukuk to refinance the USD 144 mn outstanding bonds of its now-wholly-owned subsidiary Brooge Petroleum & Gas Investment (BPGIC), according to a press release (pdf).

The move is part of a broader capital-optimization push following last week’s takeover, with the new facility not only refinancing BPGIC’s legacy debt but also bankrolling a fresh expansion of storage capacity at the Port of Fujairah. No details were provided on pricing, investor participation, or listing venue, suggesting the transaction is unlisted.

ICYMI- GulfNav closed its long-delayed AED 3.2 bn full acquisition of Nasdaq-listed Brooge Energy’s assets last week, giving the DFM-listed shipowner full control of Brooge’s storage and blending facilities in Fujairah — one of the region’s key oil logistics hubs.

ADVISORS- Our friends at HSBC acted as sole arranger and underwriter. A&O Shearman advised HSBC, while Hogan Lovells advised the issuer on structuring, documentation, and closing.

Gulf Navigation’s CEO Ahmad Kilani resigns

Gulf Navigation’s CEO resigns: Shipping and maritime services firm Gulf Navigation’s CEO Ahmad Kilani (LinkedIn) has resigned from his position but will continue carrying out his duties during the transition period, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). While the statement did not disclose the reason for his resignation, Kilani will remain a member of the company’s board of directors. The disclosure did not specify a successor for the role.

Mashreq rolls out Mashreq Neo Pakistan

BANKING-

Mashreq’s digital push in Pakistan now fully live: Our friends at Mashreq launched Mashreq Neo, its digital service offering instant onboarding, no-charge remittances, and app-based money management, in Pakistan, according to a press release.

ICYMI- Mashreq rolled out full commercial operations in Pakistan in September, with plans to roll out Neo and NeoBiz for SMEs, backed by a USD 100 mn investment plan to build out its operations in the country this year.

INVESTMENT-

#1- Dar invests six figures in Austrian proptech Howie: Dar Ventures, the venture capital arm of Dar, invested a EUR six-figure sum in Vienna-based proptech Howie to back the development of an AI platform to manage and analyze data for the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry, according to a press release.

The next steps: The capital injection will support Howie’s efforts to develop an AI platform that streamlines project data consolidation — including drawings and datasets — and analysis for AEC firms. It will also use the funds for expansion as it aims to roll out its services in Europe and the MENA region in 2027. The startup is set to launch a priced funding round in 1Q 2026.

ICYMI- Earlier this year, Dar Ventures invested GBP 5 mn in Pi Labs’ environmental tech fund, targeting AI-driven startups developing technologies for sustainable construction.

#2- India’s Stride Ventures to expand in GCC: India-based venture debt firm Stride Ventur es secured more commitments for its ADGM Fund V, as part of a wider raise that saw it secure about USD 300 mn in institutional commitments toward its three funds in the UAE, India, and the UK, Fariha Ansari Javed, partner, GCC and global capital formation at Stride Ventures, told EnterpriseAM. The funds together have a planned global close of USD 600 mn.

The firm will prioritize deployment in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, before looking at other GCC markets, Javed said.

ICYMI- Stride recently closed its first Abu Dhabi fund, ADGM Fund V, with a target of USD 250 mn as well as a further USD 100 mn green shoe option. At the time, the fund had already signed term sheets worth upwards of USD 50 mn and its pipeline for the rest of the year was set to come in at USD 100 mn.

What is driving deployment? “The India-GCC corridor is evolving into a two-way flow of capital and operational scale, marking a shift from unilateral investment to cross-border expansion,” Javed said. Indian companies are entering the UAE and Saudi Arabia to tap into larger-ticket sizes driven by stronger unit economics and policy support. Gulf-based startups “are leveraging India for technology, talent, and cost-efficient scaling,” while adopting India-style playbook.

#3- Adia + IDC back VC fund: Bengaluru-based VC firm Fireside Ventures has raised INR 22.65 bn (USD 250 mn) for its fourth fund from a mix of global and domestic investors including the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Investment Corporation of Dubai, Fidelity International, and US university endowments, Reuters reports.

Background: Founded in 2017, Fireside now manages USD 650 mn across four funds with a portfolio of over 60 consumer brands including Mamaearth, boAt, and the Sleep Company, as per the newswire.

DEBT-

Fitch upgrades Salik to A rating: Fitch Ratings has raised Salik’s issuer default rating from A- to A, maintaining a stable outlook, according to a press release (pdf). Salik’s position as Dubai’s exclusive toll operator, low debt levels, robust liquidity and balance sheet, and close links to the emirate’s expanding economy were cited as reasons for the upgrade. Its concession agreement with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority also gives Salik stable long-term cashflow visibility, Fitch said.

INFRASTRUCTURE-

Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi approved a AED 90 mn project to upgrade a five-kilometer stretch of Sharjah Ring Road near Etihad Rail Station, optimizing traffic flow along Mleiha Road — where traffic has recently doubled — and expanding University City Bridge., The National reports. The plan is in its final design stages, with construction set to wrap up within a year.

REMEMBER- The emirate also announced last week plans to build of an AED 60 mn bridge next to Martyrs' Monument to improve traffic flows from Mleiha Road to Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Road, and from Sheikh Khalifa Street towards Mleiha Road.

SPACE-

UAE, Kuwait sign MoU on space collaboration: Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Center (MBRSC) and the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences have inked an MoU to strengthen cooperation on space projects, state news agency Wam reports. The agreement came during an MBRSC delegation visit to Kuwait.

Under the agreement, the two entities will collaborate on space exploration, remote sensing, applied research, and satellite development, as well as exchange scientific and technical knowledge. The MoU will also support the development of training programs and workshops for researchers, engineers, and students from both countries.

AVIATION-

Ammroc, Egypt’s AOI partner on aircraft manufacturing + defense: The UAE’s Advanced Military Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul Center (Ammroc) inked three MoUs with Egypt’s Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) to improve cooperation across aircraft components, engine manufacturing, and helicopter system maintenance, according to a press release.

The details: Ammroc will collaborate with three AOI entities — the Aircraft Factory, the Engine Factory and Digital Manufacturing Center, and the Helwan Factory for Advanced Industries — to develop production capabilities and enhance systems for fixed-wing aircraft and autonomous aerial systems, manufacture and treat engine parts, and expand MRO services for helicopter platforms. The agreements also aim to establish training and knowledge transfer programs and set up new production lines.

Pundits pencil-in rate cut next week as Fed divisions widen on where the cycle should stop

The see-sawing of expectations for what’s to come at next week’s US Federal Reserve interest rate meeting continues, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut now at 89.2%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 63% a month ago. This would come on the heels of two 25 bps cuts in September and October, with the latest cut bringing the target range down to 3.75-4% as policymakers grappled with weak labor data and murky economic indicators in the wake of the government shutdown.

This also comes as a lack of consensus among Fed officials deepens. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted “strongly differing views” within the rate-setting committee over whether to focus on price stability or maximum employment.

Policymakers are also split about what a neutral rate — the level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy — would be ahead of Fed officials giving their predictions next week, with estimates diverging more than at any point since 2012, Bloomberg reports. Estimations from September put it between 2.6-3.9%, with 19 officials coming up with 11 different predictions.

There’s always some disagreement over where the neutral rate — also known as r-star — is, especially because it can only be inferred and later judged in the rearview mirror, but this time, the degree of disagreement is more intense — and potentially, more consequential. “It starts to become potentially a binding constraint for some of the more hawkish Fed members,” Stephen Stanley, chief US economist for Santander, said. “It definitely means that each successive cut becomes harder and harder.”

AI + tariffs influencing the outlook: Broader AI adoption could lift productivity and push the neutral rate higher, according to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Investment in AI, along with supportive fiscal and monetary policies, were cited as factors helping the global economy cope with US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, according to an OECD report cited by Bloomberg. Fed Governor Stephen Miran, on the other hand, maintains that US policies like tariffs and tax cuts may be pushing neutral rates lower, supporting the case for more easing.

Looking ahead: A changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve in 2026 could also reshape views on the neutral rate, with incoming policymakers expected to lean toward lower interest rates — adding another layer of uncertainty to the path of future policy.

Speaking of: US President Donald Trump is set to announce the new Fed Chair early next year, he said last week, and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is a top contender. His election would grant Trump a 5-2 majority on the board of the central bank.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the green after Wall Street indices rallied yesterday, with South Korea’s Kospi leading gains with a c.1.1% rise, Japan’s Nikkei climbing more than 0.7%, and China’s CSI 300 adding 0.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the only outlier, dipping 0.7%. Over on Wall Street, futures point to another strong open on the heels of the tech-fueled rally.

ADX	9,747	+0.4% (YTD: +3.5%)
DFM	5,837	+0.4% (YTD: +13.1%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,607	+0.7% (YTD: +10.6%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.8% o/n	3.6% 1 yr
Tadawul	10,536	-0.1% (YTD: -12.5%)
EGX30	40,626	-0.2% (YTD: +36.6%)
S&P 500	6,829	+0.3% (YTD: +16.1%)
FTSE 100	9,702	0.0% (YTD: +18.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,686	+0.3% (YTD: +16.1%)
Brent crude	USD 62.45	0.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.86	+0.3%
Gold	USD 4,250	+0.7%
BTC	USD 91,655	+6.0% (YTD: -2.1%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.75	-1.3% (YTD: +7.7%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.91	-0.3% (YTD: +8.6%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.59	-3.8% (YTD: -4.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.4% on Friday on turnover of AED 603.8 mn. The index is up 13.1% YTD.

In the green: Talabat Holding (+3.6%), Dubai Refreshment Company (+3.2%) and Spinneys 1961 Holding (+2.7%).

In the red: Gulf Navigation Holding (-9.9%), Al Salam Sudan (-4.1%) and Agility The Public Warehousing Company (-3.5%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.4% on turnover of AED 926.9 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.7%.

CALENDAR

DECEMBER

2-5 December (Tuesday-Friday): Sotheby’s Abu Dhabi Collectors’ Week, Abu Dhabi.

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

3-4 December (Wednesday-Thursday): Binance Blockchain Week, Coca-Cola Arena, Dubai.

7-14 December (Sunday-Sunday): Asian Youth Para Games, APC headquarters, Dubai.

8 December (Monday): DeFi Technologies Insights Global Symposium, Emirates Palace, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): BTC MENA Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Global AI Show, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): The Bridge Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-11 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, ADGM, Al Maryah Island.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

9-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Automechanika Dubai Trade Show, Dubai World Trade Center.

10 December (Wednesday): UAE-Russia Business Forum, Dubai.

12 December (Friday): Emirates NBD to launch an open offer for Mumbai-listed RBL Bank’s public shares.

13-15 December (Saturday-Monday): Mobile Developers Week, Abu Dhabi.

18-23 December (Thursday-Tuesday): Games of the Future, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

26 December (Friday): Tender period for Emirates NBD’s offer for RBL Bank’s public shares ends.

29-30 December (Monday-Tuesday): World Sports Summit, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network;
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organization (WeGO).

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro.

JANUARY 2026

1 January: Client asset regime changes in Dubai International Financial Center take effect.

1 January: Amendments to the Tax Procedures Law and the UAE VAT Law come into effect.

9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit, UAE.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai Exhibition Center, Dubai.

12-15 January (Monday-Thursday): Dubai International Project Management Forum, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 January - 7 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, International Tennis Center, Zayed Sports City.

FEBRUARY 2026

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-13 February (Monday-Friday): The World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

MARCH 2026

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates Congress on AI & Visionary leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March - 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL 2026

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai

MAY 2026

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Abu Dhabi Center, Abu Dhabi

JUNE 2026

15 June-15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY 2026

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai;
14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai;
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center;
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference;
United Nations Water Conference;
Dubai Future Finance Week;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation ;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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