FAB sells USD 1 bn AT1 bond + Property market nearing its peak in Dubai

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Adnoc eyes USD 150 bn in capex until 2030 + Lunate to invest USD 1 bn in MGX?

Good morning, lovely people. We have a very macro-heavy issue for you this morning, as ICAEW upgrades the UAE’s growth forecast for next year and Knight Frank and JLL both give their take on the UAE’s booming property markets — and the figures are all pointing to the same thing: Price growth is finally stabilizing in Dubai, and the five-year boom looks to be nearing its peak.

ALSO- Trading in Dubai opened nearly three hours late yesterday due to connectivity issues, with the opening session starting at 12:45pm, the Dubai Financial Market confirmed in a statement. The exchange kept its closing time unchanged despite the delayed start.

WEATHER- Dubai is in for a high of 30°C today and a low of 20°C, while Abu Dhabi is expected to see a 31°C high and a 21°C low.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Adnoc plans USD 150 bn capex through 2030: Adnoc’s board has signed off on a five-year spending plan holding capital expenditure at USD 150 bn, as the company pushes ahead with capacity growth at home and expands its international footprint, according to a statement.

XRG doubles in size as global expansion accelerates: Adnoc said its international investment arm, XRG — created about a year ago — has lifted its enterprise value to USD 151 bn from USD 80 bn. The unit now holds stakes in listed Adnoc companies worth more than USD 100 bn and is targeting a top-five global position in gas and petrochemicals while supplying energy to meet AI-era demand, Bloomberg reports.

Upstream growth remains the priority: Adnoc has set up a dedicated operating company for the Hail and Ghasha offshore concession and raised the project’s target to 1.8 bcf/d by 2030, up from 1.5 bcf/d. Oil capacity is on track to rise to 5 mn b/d from 4.85 mn b/d currently.

The caveat? With the UAE’s OPEC+ quota at just over 3.4 mn b/d for December, further increases will leave more spare capacity idle in the near term.

#2- Abu Dhabi-based asset manager Lunate is in discussions to invest USD 1 bn in the state’s AI firm MGX, Bloomberg quotes sources familiar with the matter as saying. The state AI giant is looking to raise USD 25 bn in funding to boost its AI investments. Meanwhile, the alternative investor is reportedly targeting a bigger haul for its 2026 fund launches, well above the USD 17 bn it raised for its flagship funds in 2024, Bloomberg reported in another story. It deployed USD 13.5 bn so far and sealed over 100 transactions, pushing its assets to around USD 115 bn.

MGX has a busy pipeline ahead: Its upcoming commitments include contributing to the initial USD 100 bn phase of the Stargate AI infrastructure fund, pledging USD 30-50 bn of initial investments in data centers in France, and backing GIP’s USD 30 bn AI infrastructure fund. It also recently fully acquired Texas-based Aligned Data Centers alongside BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners for USD 40 bn and invested in OpenAI as part of its latest secondary share sale.

#3- Oracle deploys MENA’s first Blackwell-powered supercluster in Abu Dhabi: American cloud infrastructure firm Oracle has launched an Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) supercluster with more than 4k of Nvidia’s latest Blackwell-architecture GPUs in its Abu Dhabi cloud region, according to a press release. The deployment, which Oracle says is the first of its kind in the MENA region, gives government entities and regulated sectors access to high-density AI compute while keeping data in-country.

A closer look: The supercluster is designed to support sovereign AI workloads across smart government, energy, finance, healthcare, aviation, logistics, and telecoms. Oracle says the buildout will enable in-region training, inference, and R&D at scale.

ICYMI- The US recently gave the greenlight to the export of several USD bns worth of Nvidia chips to the UAE, and later to state AI firm G42 on the condition of “rigorous security and reporting requirements.” Oracle is also involved in the 5 GW UAE-US AI Campus, the first deployment of the USD 500 bn US Stargate initiative.

#4- Adia, GIC wrap up their Vantage investment: A wholly owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) and an affiliate of Singaporean wealth fund GIC finalized their participation as lead investors in the USD 1.6 bn equity investment in data center developer Vantage Data Centers, according to a press release.

Where will the money go? A portion of the capital was used to finalize the acquisition of a 300+ MW hyperscale campus in Johor, Malaysia, from Mubadala-backed data center developer Yondr Group. The transaction expands Vantage’s regional platform to 1GW of operational and planned IT capacity across Australia, Malaysia, Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.

REMEMBER- Both Adia and GIC are existing backers of Vantage, alongside alternative asset manager DigitalBridge Group. Adia acquired a 40% in DigitalBridge’s subsidiary Landmark Dividend back in April 2024.

#5- Mubadala, Uber seek regulatory greenlight on Getir Food sale: Uber has agreed on key elements of a possible acquisition of Mubadala’s controlling stake in Turkish delivery firm Getir’s food-delivery arm, and has jointly filed for clearance with the Turkish Competition Authority, Reuters reports, citing two people familiar with the matter.

We knew this was coming: Earlier this month, Mubadala was in preliminary talks with Uber to possibly take over the Turkish firm. At the time, reports cited the value of the potential acquisition at as much as USD 1 bn. The sale would come following the recent sale of Getir Arac to Tiktak and parallel talks to offload the remaining stake in Getir’s finance unit. The Abu Dhabi fund took control of Getir’s assets earlier this year after the company’s pandemic-era surge and subsequent collapse in demand forced a restructuring and shutdown of its international operations, and led to a power struggle between Mubadala and Getir’s founders.

DATA POINT-

Gross bank assets rose to AED 5.2 tn at the end of September, up 2.2% m-o-m, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s latest monetary and banking developments report (pdf). Gross credit increased 2.5% to AED 2.5 tn, supported by a AED 43.9 bn increase in domestic credit and AED 17.6 bn in foreign credit. Within domestic credit, lending grew across all segments: the government sector (+0.4%), government-related entities (+7.2%), the private sector (+1.5%), and non-banking financial institutions (+9.1%).

Total bank deposits rose 1.8% m-o-m to AED 3.1 tn, driven by a 0.7% increase in resident deposits to AED 2.9 tn and a 14.5% jump in non-resident deposits to AED 294.6 bn. Among resident deposits, private sector deposits grew 0.7% and non-banking financial institutions rose 13.8%, while government sector deposits fell 0.5% and deposits from government-related entities slipped 0.1%.

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HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- A Dubai Chambers of Commerce delegation is in Malaysia and Cambodia until Friday, 28 November to explore investment and potential partnerships for Dubai companies, state news agency Wam reports. The mission includes meetings with government bodies, major companies, and one-on-one business sessions to build long-term trade and investment ties. Delegates will study local investment environments and prospects to potentially expand to those markets to support export and re-export growth.

#2- The Big 5 Global Exhibition is on its second day and runs until Thursday at Dubai World Trade Center. The four-day event convenes construction leaders and policymakers in the urban development ecosystem. Over 2.8k industry suppliers will be at the event, which will focus on advanced technologies and collaboration on infrastructure innovation.

#3- LiveableCities X is also taking place until Thursday at Dubai World Trade Center. The event brings together international city planners, policymakers, and urban planners to discuss the latest technologies and solutions for sustainable and smart urban environments.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1- Dubai Silicon Oasis will host the Doers Summit tomorrow and on Thursday at Dubai Digital Park, bringing together founders, operators, investors, and technology players for panels, workshops, and startup showcases focused on scaling companies and building digital products. The agenda will focus on AI, fintech, engineering, and venture building, with hands-on sessions for early-stage founders.

#2- Date with Tech runs from Wednesday to Thursday in Dubai’s Madinat Jumeirah. The event — a new summit covering AI, digital assets, cybersecurity, immersive tech, and smart infrastructure — spotlights the region’s fast-growing tech sector, from a projected USD 166 bn AI market by 2030 to rising data-center and digital-transformation investment, and serves as a platform for next-gen technology partnerships.

#3- The DFSA-HKMA Joint Climate Finance Conference is happening tomorrow at the DIFC Conference Center. Co-hosted by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the event brings together regulators, global investors, and financial institutions to explore sustainable finance solutions and deepen bilateral collaboration. Key topics include scaling climate finance through tokenization and technology.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

US markets started the week in a sea of green, buoyed by increased odds of a December rate cut that took investors’ minds off AI bubble fears. The Nasdaq rose 2.69% — its best day since May — on strong Alphabet and Nvidia gains, while the Dow was up 0.44% yesterday and the S&P 500 inched up 1.55%. (Reuters | CNBC)

Not everyone is bullish: The “Big Short” investor Michael Burry used the first post in his newly launched paid-subscription newsletter Cassandra Unchained to warn that AI’s inflated valuations could be leading to a dot-com-like bubble down the road. Burry has reportedly placed a USD 1.1 bn wager against AI’s poster children Nvidia and Palantir.

What he said: "The five public horsemen of today's AI boom — Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon and Oracle — are joined by several adolescent startups in promising nearly USD 3 tn in spending on AI infrastructure over the next 3 years. [...] And once again there is a Cisco at the center of it all, with the picks and shovels for all and the expansive vision to go with it. Its name is Nvidia.” (Reuters | CNBC | Bloomberg)

ALSO- US domestic politics are taking center stage: Headlines are dominated by a federal judge‘s dismissal of indictments against former FBI director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James, the latest judicial rebuke for the Trump administration’s attempts to resort to the criminal justice system to target opponents. (CNN | Washington Post | NY Times | Associated Press)

ALSO WORTH READING THIS MORNING-

Another escalation against Venezuela saw the US formally designate President Nicolás Maduro and close allies as members of a foreign terrorist organization. (Reuters)
CNN unpacks why the crypto market is crashing.

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FAB sells USD 1 bn AT1 bond, with the largest orderbook ever for an AT1 transaction in the UAE

First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) issued a USD 1 bn perpetual Additional Tier 1 bond with a six-year non-call period, according to a disclosure to the bourse (pdf). FAB said the funds would strengthen its capital position and support its long-term growth strategy.

SOUND SMART- AT1 bonds are a common way for banks to raise core tier-one capital without diluting shareholders by issuing new equity. Additional tier one certificates are a type of subordinated debt, meaning they rank below other types of bank debt in the event of liquidation. This makes them riskier than senior debt, but still gives them priority over equity holders. AT1 certificates are “perpetual,” having no fixed maturity date. They pay interest similarly to bonds, but can often be converted into equity under certain conditions, which is why they are often referred to as CoCos, short for “contingent convertibles,” in the industry.

The bond was priced at 5.875%, well below the initial guidance of 6.375-6.5%, marking the lowest yield for a CEEMEA conventional USD AT1 transaction since May 2021. Closing this issuance at this rate “in a period of market softness and elevated regional supply demonstrates the strength of FAB’s credit and the depth of investor confidence in the bank,” said FAB Group Treasurer Felix Green.

Investor demand was huge, with orders topping USD 3.3 bn, more than three times the size of the offer, and marking the largest orderbook on record for a UAE bank issuing an AT1 bond, and the largest for a GCC AT1 issuance this year. The book was global, covering Europe, MENA, the US, and Asia-Pacific.

Market reax: The lender’s stock declined 1.5% to AED 15.8 at yesterday’s close.

REMEMBER- AT1 issuance hit a new high of USD 8.45 bn in 2025, up from a total of USD 5.6 bn last year, Fitch said recently, adding that the momentum will likely continue due to favorable pricing and the benefit they have on bank’s coffers. Emirates NBD, Rakbank, and Sharjah Islamic Bank are among those who issued AT1 notes this year.

ADVISORS- Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Barclays, Emirates NBD Capital, Standard Chartered Bank, and FAB are joint lead managers and bookrunners on the transaction, Zawya reported earlier.

ICAEW sees UAE’s GDP growing at 5.6% in 2026

The ICAEW sees the UAE’s economy driving the GCC’s GDP growth in 2026, with our GDP being forecast to accelerate from 4.9% this year to 5.6% in 2026, according to ICAEW’s latest Economic Update Quarterly report prepared by Oxford Economics. This will mainly be driven by a robust non-oil sector, especially in areas like tourism, trade and financial services, combined with a pickup in oil output as Opec+ expected in 2H 2026.

“Despite some moderation in 1H, we expect non-oil GDP to expand by 4.7% this year and cool slightly to a 4.3% expansion in 2026, supported by sustained trade activity, robust consumption, rapid population growth and continued policy-driven diversification,” the report reads. The UAE’s GDP grew 3.9% in 1Q 2025.

Its forecast for this year represents a downward revision by 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast, but the report did not mention the reason behind the downgrade.

How the forecast compares: ICAEW readings match the CBUAE’s 2025 forecast of 4.9%, though its forecast for next year is more optimistic than CBUAE’s expectation of 5.3% growth. BMI, however, agrees that the UAE’s growth could come in at 5.6% next year, but expects 5.2% growth in 2025, while it penciled in a higher 5.5% growth for the non-oil sector for next year. Meanwhile, the IMF and World Bank estimate 4.8% growth in 2025 and 5% growth in 2026

Our oil output is expected to accelerate to 3.41 mn bpd in December and remain at this level until 2H of 2026. It is anticipated to edge up to an average of 4 mn bpd in 2027 thanks to efforts to expand oil production on the back of Adnoc’s push to boost capacity.

Other factors driving growth: Anticipated growth in 2026 for the UAE is largely fueled by Dubai's exceptional 1H growth, driven by robust trade and tourism, alongside a slate of comprehensive economic agreements helping boost non-oil trade.

ICAEW sees inflation averaging 1.9% in 2025 before reaching 2.5% in 2026, slightly higher than the CBUAE’s forecast of 1.8% in 2026, and lower than the IMF and the World Bank’s 2% forecast. While ICAEW sees a drop in energy prices limiting a rise in prices, pressure persists from elevated housing costs, which are expected to linger until more supply becomes available in the coming years.

The GCC at large: The ICAEW revised down its GCC’s GDP growth for 2026 to 4.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast for the year. It maintains its outlook for 4.1% growth this year. The downward revision is attributed to OPEC+ group’s decision to halt oil pump for the 1Q in 2026 before resuming normal rates of production during 2H in 2026 and throughout 2027.

Vacancy tightens across office + retail space in 3Q in Dubai, Abu dhabi -JLL

New supply remains limited across the UAE’s office and retail markets, pushing both demand and rents up in 3Q 2025, according to JLL. The good news for tenants? The cycle may be hitting its peak soon.

On the residential front, prices continue to climb across the board, though rents are beginning to stabilize in Dubai.

THE OFFICE MARKET-

Vacancy continues to shrink in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, according to JLL’s 3Q O ffice Market Dynamics report (pdf). Abu Dhabi citywide vacancy stood at 1.5%, down from 4.1% in 3Q 2024, with prime and Grade A space extremely tight, with the former at 0.1% vacancy and the latter at 1%. Dubai’s overall vacancy fell to 7.1%, down from 9.7% in the same quarter last year, with prime availability at just 0.3% and Grade A at 3.4%.

Landlords are capitalizing on the imbalance, with prime rents in Abu Dhabi prime surging 31.3% y-o-y to almost AED 3k per sqm, while Grade A rents rose 3.9% y-o-y and Grade B rents increased by 10% y-o-y. In Dubai, prime offices reached AED 359 per sq ft, up 16.8%. Grade A spaces’ rents were up 22.5% and Grade B rents rose 18.6% y-o-y.

Rental contract registrations dropped 16% y-o-y in Dubai and 5.6% in Abu Dhabi, with the capital also seeing a 4% decline in new contracts and a sharper 9.4% drop in renewals. Meanwhile, Dubai registered 4.4% growth in renewals but a 23.4% fall in new contracts. The downturns stem from supply constraints rather than weak demand, JLL noted. Regional companies are driving more leasing inquiries than multinational firms.

Supply additions remain modest: Abu Dhabi’s office stock stands at 4.1 mn sqm, with 39k sqm expected to come online in 4Q and a larger 124.6k sqm expansion set for 2027. Dubai’s stock remains around 100.1 mn sq ft, with 355k sq ft expected in 4Q and 1.5 mn sq ft slated for next year, and 1.4 mn sqm in 2027. Secondary locations will continue to see new project launches as developers look beyond central business districts, with Dubai particularly seeing an emerging trend of residential developers expanding into the commercial sector on strong demand.

Rents could start cooling soon, JLL says, as tenants push back against further increases. Still, the landlord-favorable environment is expected to persist in the short to medium term, with strong occupier demand and limited inventory giving property owners leverage in lease negotiations.

THE RETAIL MARKET-

Vacancy is falling at a similar pace on the retail front: Abu Dhabi citywide retail vacancy dropped to 9% in 3Q, down 5% y-o-y, while Dubai’s fell to 6.8%, a 2.2% annual decline, according to JLL’s 3Q Retail Market Dynamics report (pdf). Occupiers are increasingly securing space in well-positioned centers, driving competition for high-footfall locations.

Leasing activity was mixed, with Abu Dhabi’s total retail contract volumes falling 11.1% y-o-y, new leases down 6.8%, and renewals declining 14.7%. In Dubai, renewals rose 3.5% y-o-y, supporting an overall 2.1% increase in registrations.

Rents are also climbing, though at a softer pace than commercial: Rental values for prime super-regional malls in Abu Dhabi grew 3.4% y-o-y to AED 5.5k per sqm, while other mall types rose 5.9%. In Dubai, prime super-regional malls saw rents jump 13.5% to AED 836 per sq ft, with super-regional centers up 9.7% and regional centers up 12.8%. Landlords are using the strong demand to increase rates, particularly in top-performing centers.

Supply expansion remains modest with Abu Dhabi adding 27k sqm in retail space in 3Q, bringing total stock to 3 mn sqm, with another 11k sqm expected by year-end. Over 2026 and 2027, 98.4k sqm of stock is set to come online, mainly in regional and community malls. Dubai’s stock held steady at 55.9 mn sq ft, with 415.4k sq ft due in 4Q and 2.2 mn sq ft anticipated in 2026, mostly super-regional and regional malls.

Evolving retail trends: Convenience and supermarket formats are shifting to smaller, more cost-efficient stores that allow rapid deployment across neighbourhoods. Other segments like electronics and fashion may also shift towards smaller, more compact models.

THE RESIDENTIAL MARKET-

On the residential side, both Abu Dhabi and Dubai recorded strong sales and price growth in 3Q 2025, according to JLL’s 3Q UAE Living Market Dynamics report (pdf). Abu Dhabi’s sales volumes rose 76.2% y-o-y, driven by a 113% jump in off-plan transactions, which make up 76.1% of total. Dubai’s sales grew 16.5% y-o-y, with off-plan sales up 24.8% and accounting for 75.4% of activity, while secondary sales fell 3.3% on a yearly basis.

Prices continue to climb: Abu Dhabi villa prices rose 14.7% to AED 16.9k per sqm, while apartments saw prices increase by 7.8% to AED 19.1 per sqm, and townhouses saw a 6.7% uptick. Dubai villas reached AED 2.3k per sq ft, up 14.9% y-o-y, and apartments reached AED 1.8k per sq ft, up 12.6% y-o-y.

Abu Dhabi rents posted solid gains, with villas up 15.6% y-o-, apartments up 14.8% y-o-y, and townhouses rising 5.7%. Contract registrations were up 11.8% y-o-y, mainly on the back of a 15% uptick in renewals which accounted for 62.4% of the overall share.

Dubai rents were steadier, with apartments up 6.2% y-o-y to AED 123 per sq ft and villas rising 2.9% to AED 105.7 per sq ft. Rents also stabilized on a q-o-q basis. Overall registrations saw a 9.4% increase, with renewals making up 58.7% of the total.

Supply expands: Abu Dhabi added 800 units in 3Q, bringing total stock to 293k. The capital expects to see 6.6k more in 4Q, 12.9k in 2026, and 10.4k in 2027. Dubai delivered 7.1k units, with 12k due in 4Q, though delivery delays are expected; new supply remains apartment-led across both cities.

Dubai’s residential boom enters a cooler phase in 3Q, with slower price growth and rising oversupply risks through 2030

Dubai’s residential market also appears to be nearing its peak: Property price growth in Dubai has slowed to its weakest annual rate since late 2020 in 3Q 2025, Knight Frank said in its latest Residential Market Review (pdf). Average values rose 2.5% q-o-q and 10% y-o-y, down from the 16% pace seen a year earlier, signaling a maturing cycle. Knight Frank also estimates a higher jump in villa prices, with 12% y-o-y growth in prices and 3.6% q-o-q, while apartment prices are estimated to have risen 9.6% y-o-y and 2.3% q-o-q.

Villa prices remain 55% above a previous 2014 peak and 124% higher than early 2020, supported by tight supply and strong demand from high-salaried residents. La Mer was the standout, up 54.7% y-o-y, while Emirates Hills, Jumeirah Islands, and Arabian Ranches also logged strong gains. In contrast, supply-heavy districts such as Expo City and Dubai South saw prices cool as an uptick in supply on the back of new completions hit pricing.

Prime apartments remain in demand: Palm Jumeirah led annual price growth for apartments (+31%) on tight supply, followed by Dubai Marina (+15%). Meydan City posted the sharpest quarterly rise (+22% q-o-q) on new completions and investor demand. Supply-heavy areas like Dubai Creek Harbour saw mild corrections as nearly 5.8k units were delivered since 2023, with another 7k scheduled through 2029.

Total sales reached AED 117 bn in the quarter, slightly above 3Q 2024, bringing 9M transactions to more than AED 310 bn — one of Dubai’s highest 9M totals on record. Aggregate transactions volumes for 9M reached AED 401.7 bn. Knight Frank attributes the strength to robust end-user demand, ongoing wealth migration, and deep international inflows.

Off-plan dominates: Off-plan sales represented more than 72% of 3Q transaction value. Emaar (17.6%), Damac (9.6%), and Binghatti (7.4%) captured over one-third of off-plan value. Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), Business Bay, and Dubai Investment Park remained the busiest off-plan markets. Secondary sales have tripled since 2021, reflecting deeper liquidity.

Mortgaged sales accelerate: While cashbuyers still made up 86% of 9M transactions, mortgage activity is rising sharply. Over 23k homes were bought with mortgages in 9M 2025 — more than double 2021 levels — as the 12-month EIBOR eased to 3.9%. JVC, Dubai Marina, and Villanova saw the most mortgage-backed purchases.

Ultra-luxury demand climbs: Dubai remained the world’s busiest USD 10 mn+ market, logging 103 such sales in 3Q, up 24% y-o-y, and 357 in 9M, up 26% y-o-y. Quarterly transaction value reached USD 2 bn, up 54% y-o-y. The priciest transaction was a AED 350 mn mansion in La Mer.

Looking ahead: Knight Frank’s outlook points to much slower gains ahead, with prime prices expected to rise just 3% and mainstream residential values 1% in 2026 as the market stabilizes.

REMEMBER- We’ve been expecting a correction: Knight Frank forecasts 8% full-year growth this year (vs. double-digit in 2024), while Fitch expects a 10-15% correction as early as 2H 2025, and Moody’s expects prices to dip or stabilize over the next 12-18 months. Reports of speculative strain are also rising, with off-plan resales falling to 20% of total resales in July, down from one-third earlier in the year.

Oversupply risks build: Knight Frank warns of a growing supply overhang, with 350k homes registered for delivery between 2026-2030 — nearly 70k annually, almost double Dubai’s historical average of 36k. Even assuming only 70% of projects complete, annual deliveries would average 66k, raising softening risks in high-pipeline areas including JVC, Dubai South, Expo City, and Dubailand.

The property boom has fueled a surge in issuances by property developers: Developers across the UAE have issued more than USD 6 bn in USD bonds and sukuk since 2021 — a twelve-fold increase — as they race to secure land and expand project pipelines during one of the Gulf’s longest real-estate booms, according to Bloomberg data. Newer issuers including Arada, Binghatti, and Omniyat have joined longstanding names such as Emaar, Aldar, and Damac in tapping debt markets.

The surge has created a large repayment schedule, with about USD 8 bn in maturities due by 2030. Analysts warn that a global slowdown, geopolitical shocks, or lower oil prices could weaken sentiment and expose leveraged buyers if developers face delivery delays. “In debt markets, the flood of new real-estate sukuk deals could test market appetite, particularly as investors look to avoid over-exposure to a single sector,” Fady Gendy, fixed-income portfolio manager at Arqaam Capital, told the business news information service, adding that some signs of “investor fatigue” are already appearing, with recent transactions trading below their re-offer price and higher new issue premiums paid.

Private credit fills funding gap: With banks approaching their real-estate exposure limits, private credit is becoming a key funding channel. Omniyat secured a USD 100 mn private credit facility from Nomura earlier this year, and lenders say most current demand for non-bank financing is coming from developers.

IPO interest is also growing: Several developers — including Binghatti, Samana, and Arada — are considering potential IPOs to raise capital and improve governance. Investors say any future market downturn would likely widen valuation gaps between developers based on leverage, delivery track record, and financial resilience.

FSRA requests feedback on major funds framework reforms

ADGM launches consultation paper on changes to funds framework: ADGM'S Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) has published a new consultation paper (pdf), outlining proposed changes to its regulatory framework for funds and fund managers, according to a statement. The consultation proposes introducing new regimes for managers of smaller funds and for managers exclusively targeting institutional investors, as well as for employee investment. The paper is open for feedback until 30 January 2026.

For smaller and institutional funds: ADGM is proposing rolling out a regulated framework for managers of smaller and institutional funds through a sub-threshold fund manager (STFM) regime for fund managers overseeing up to USD 200 mn in committed capital, closed-ended qualified investment funds, and exempt funds. Managers delegating investment discretion or operating as host managers would be excluded. The new framework would not limit the types of assets in which small fund managers can invest, unlike the current venture capital fund manager framework. ADGM is seeking feedback on whether to add a leverage cap of 100% of fund net asset value and a base capital requirement of USD 50k.

For funds targeting institutional investors: ADGM is considering a similar framework for fund managers working with only institutional investors, with proposals including a minimum USD 5 mn subscription requirement. Institutional fund managers (IFM) wouldn’t need to appoint a finance officer or internal audit officer, would have a base capital requirement equal to the higher of USD 50k or 6/52 of AAE, and also secure exemption from professional indemnity cover.

Venture capital fund managers (VCFMs) may be recast as a sub-category within the new STFM framework, retaining venture-specific dispensations while adopting the USD 200 mn manager-level committed capital limit and USD 50k base capital rule. Select investment managers not holding client funds or assets may also be eligible for the exemptions.

Employee investment: The changes propose amending the Conduct of Business Rulebook (COBS) (pdf) to exempt employee investment vehicles from minimum subscription requirements and implement systems to admit only eligible participants.

The paper also proposes limiting foreign fund managers to only overseeing close-ended qualified investment funds, requiring them to appoint a UAE resident as director, as well as ADGM-based fund administrators and corporate services providers, and prohibiting them from delegating investment management.

Other areas for industry input: The FSRA is asking for feedback on several additional points, including on its private credit fund and REIT framework, and the scope of assets investible for green and climate funds.

Indian startup OnFinance readies launch of NeoGPT-GCC for Gulf regulators and banks + Tim Draper-backed startup to bring block-laying construction robots to the UAE market

Bengaluru-based generative AI startup OnFinance AI is moving in on the Middle East’s banking and regulatory sector, founder and CEO Anuj Srivastava told EnterpriseAM MENA <> India in an exclusive interview. The firm will accelerate the rollout of its GCC-specific AI model and explore expansion into markets where agreement sizes are 2x to 3x larger than in India.

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Marquee clients: Founded in 2023, the startup currently serves more than 25 Indian banking, financial services, and ins. institutions, including the BSE, HDFC Securities, Kotak Mutual Fund, Nippon Mutual Fund, and Aditya Birla Capital Digital, among other heavyweight mutual funds.

A GPT for the Gulf region in the works: Central to OnFinance’s Middle East expansion strategy is the NeoGPT-GCC, a fine-tuned large language model trained on regulatory data from over 40 authorities, including the Saudi Central Bank (Sama), the Central Bank of Kuwait, and the Central Bank of the UAE. The model is also trained with data from multi-sector regulators including Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority, the UAE’s Securities and Commodities Authority, and the Financial Services Regulatory Authority in Abu Dhabi.

How does it work? The model parses Arabic circulars, legacy PDFs, and digital and scanned regulatory documents to convert them into “plain English action tables” for compliance and audit teams, said Srivastava. OnFinance claims a translation accuracy rate of 98%. Built on a modular, rules-driven architecture, the system supports local identity formats, sanctions lists, and region-specific workflows across banks, insurers, and capital-markets entities.

Strategic entry: With the NeoGPT GCC already live, a formal market rollout and soft launch of the LLM is slated for late December, Srivastava told us. The firm plans to hire two Gulf-based team members to support on-premise implementations.

OnFinance AI secured USD 4.2 mn in a pre-series A round in September led by Peak XV’s Surge, one of India’s largest VC funds, along with participation from Groww Founders’ Fund, MarsShot VC, Climber Capital, and existing investors Indian Angel Network and Silverneedle Ventures. The money will fund OnFinance’s expansion into the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and US markets to advance its BFSI-focused LLM research.

Funding: OnFinance is also seeking funding from several Gulf-based private offices, including the Seed Group, a company under the private office of UAE’s Saeed bin Ahmed Al Maktoum. The company is also interested in working with consultancy firm Protiviti to approach GCC-based investors.

The company revamped its go-to-market strategy after pitching early proofs-of-concept to First Abu Dhabi Bank and Arab National Bank last year. The plans stalled due to product immaturity at the time, but Srivastava says the platform is now production-ready for the region’s finance industry.

Data sovereignty and security: With GCC institutions insisting on data residency, OnFinance is going ahead with full on-premise deployments rather than going for the cloud. The company says it has built enterprise-grade governance tools including data-lineage tracking, model-drift monitoring, policy-enforcement guardrails, and role-based access. “Banks in the Middle East are extremely bullish on GenAI, but uncompromising on data security,” Srivastava said, noting that GCC firms prefer vetted open-source LLMs over closed-source AI stacks.

OTHER STARTUP NEWS-

US-based robotics startup Buildroid AI is rolling out its block-laying construction humanoid in the UAE after raising USD 2 mn in a pre-seed funding round led by venture capital investor Tim Draper, who has backed Tesla, Robinhood, and Skype, according to a press release (pdf). The firm plans to use the capital to scale its pilot programs, improve the simulation and autonomous functions of its humanoid crew, and push ahead with the commercial deployment of its block-laying machines.

Buildroid AI has already tested its robots on active construction sites in the UAE — including one of Alec Construction’s — and aims to launch its first commercial AI robotics teams with contractors in 2Q 2026.

Why the UAE? Founder Slava Solonitsyn touted the UAE’s appealing compliance landscape and strong demand from contractors for skilled workers, along with a gap in talent supply, in an emailed statement to EnterpriseAM UAE.

The block-laying humanoid targets a market gap in AI-driven construction, where existing single-task construction robots tend to struggle in complex environments and need human support, limiting productivity and returns, according to the release. The firm plans to integrate its machines with Autonomous Mobile Robots that can transport concrete blocks directly from pallets to the humanoids — automating up to 80% of masonry work. The startup sees the role of construction workers evolving in five to ten years to one that is more supervisory and limited to more nuanced, professional tasks like final-touch operations, Solonitsyn told EnterpriseAM UAE.

More plans in the pipeline: The company plans on expanding its robot applications to robotic operators, vendors, and contractors, employing an ERP simulation-driven planning system to optimize efficiency.

New execs at Dubai Media Council + Mira taps new CEO. Plus: Shuaa Capital taps new CLO

Dubai Crown Prince appoints two new execs to Dubai Media Council: Dubai Crown Prince Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum named Hesham Al Olama (LinkedIn) as CEO of the media development sector and Rashid Al Marri (LinkedIn) as CEO of the media regulation sector at Dubai Media Council, state news agency Wam reports. The appointments have been in effect since 1 November.

Real estate brokerage Mira Real Estate rebranded to Mira International and tapped Aldo De Jager (LinkedIn) as its CEO, according to a press release. The move comes as the brokerage plans to launch 30 new branches across major cities.

The next phase: De Jager will lead the firm’s international expansion as the firm’s co-founder Tamara Getigezheva (LinkedIn) takes on a larger role at Mira Group subsidiary Mira Developments. Mira International will adopt a phased expansion, starting with pilot offices before moving into regional hubs.

Shuaa Capital names new group CLO: DFM-listed investment platform Shuaa Capital tapped Halim Abou Rjaily as the firm’s new group CLO, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). He will take on the role after Roberta Calarese, who took up the role in 2024, (LinkedIn) finishes her term on 21 January 2026.

Switzerland’s Julius Baer to launch advisory outpost in ADGM

FINANCE-

Julius Baer set to join ADGM: Swiss wealth manager Julius Baer secured in-principle approval from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) to launch an advisory office in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), according to a press release. Pending final approval, the new office will deliver wealth management services to ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs), family offices, and entrepreneurs. Amir Iskander will head up the new office, which is expected to open in December.

BACKGROUND- The wealth manager established its first UAE office in Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) over two decades ago and has recently been on a regional hiring spree. The firm tapped former UBS banker Sanjay Advani (LinkedIn) in 2024 to lead its global non-resident Indians business in Dubai.

AVIATION-

Air Arabia rolls out direct Sharjah-London Gatwick service: UAE-based budget carrier Air Arabia will launch a new nonstop service between Sharjah and London Gatwick, set to operate twice daily and begin in March 2026, state news agency Wam reports.

BACKGROUND- The airline has rolled out 12 new routes YTD and is also launching a new budget carrier in Saudi Arabia as part of a consortium.

ENERGY-

#1- Emdad taps Bilfinger for Dubai South aviation fuel pipeline: Emdad Aviation Fuel Storage, a subsidiary of Emirates General Petroleum Co., tapped international industrial services provider Bilfinger to provide engineering, installation, and design services for a new aviation fuel pipeline in Dubai South, according to a press release. The new pipeline will connect Jebel Ali Terminal to Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC).

#2- AD Ports, Masdar team up on offshore wind projects: AD Ports and Mubadala-owned renewables firm Masdar signed a partnership agreement to collaborate on global offshore wind developments, according to a statement. AD Ports will act as a technical and logistics partner on Masdar’s future offshore wind projects, with potential roles spanning substation fabrication, onshore and offshore logistics, subsea services, and maintenance and operations support.

REMEMBER- Masdar is already developing major offshore wind assets in Europe, including the 476 MW Baltic Eagle project in Germany and the 1.4 GW East Anglia Three project in the UK. The new partnership is aimed at supporting similar large-scale deployments.

What will the investment landscape look like next year?

Goldman Sachs Asset Management is out with its investment outlook for 2026(pdf), giving us our first look into next year’s investment landscape and potential market catalysts. The asset manager sees the possibility of easing fiscal cycles, continued significant investment in artificial intelligence, and a rebound in M&A momentum as key trends that could drive portfolio value growth next year.

Setting the scene: Next year is expected to be shaped by central bank actions, trade stability, fiscal deficits, continued geopolitical tensions, credit risks in the banking sector, and high market concentration.

BREAKING DOWN THE TRENDS-

#1- Rate cuts topped the list of trends likely to drive portfolio growth next year. “We believe easing cycles present opportunities across asset classes,” the asset manager said. “Rate cuts could benefit fixed income, including front-end US Treasuries, and investment-grade credit, where the rate component of yields is higher than in the past, meaning total returns benefit from falling rates.”

Closer to home: The Fed moving forward with rate cuts sets the stage for merging markets to slash rates without having to worry about currency weakness.

#2- The asset manager sees capital expenditure spending on AI by US tech giants “remaining durable” next year. The report notes that industry experts have repeatedly underestimated AI capex over the past couple of years. While initial public market excitement around generative AI focused on a limited set of stocks, Goldman Sachs’ asset management arm expects investment potential to expand into other emerging companies.

The fine print: While AI capex is one of the big drivers that can accelerate growth and unlock value within investment portfolios, the report notes that “return on investment visibility” in AI companies is still limited, and that there is a need for a “rigorous analysis of business fundamentals” of these entities.

#3- It also expects the recovery of dealmaking that was seen this year to continue into next year, referring to the increase in M&A activity in the US and Europe. This uptick is expected to drive a broader revival in private equity activity and boost demand for private credit financing. A rise in M&A activity may also attract more attention to smaller companies, “which form the backbone of activity.”

Other factors that could spur markets: The outlook also highlighted US tax cuts and deregulation, economic security, and global power demand — driven by AI and non-AI data demand — as trends that could drive growth in investment portfolios.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are inching higher this morning, with South Korea’s Kospi leading gains, up 1.1% in early trading. The Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, and Nikkei are trailing behind.

ADX	9,772	-0.2% (YTD: +3.8%)
DFM	5,831	-0.1% (YTD: +13.0%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,620	-0.3% (YTD: +11.0%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.8% o/n	3.6% 1 yr
Tadawul	10,852	-1.4% (YTD: -9.8%)
EGX30	39,725	-1.8% (YTD: +33.6%)
S&P 500	6,705	+1.6% (YTD: +14.0%)
FTSE 100	9,535	-0.1% (YTD: +16.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,529	+0.3% (YTD: +12.9%)
Brent crude	USD 63.37	+1.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.52	-0.8%
Gold	USD 4,168	+0.9%
BTC	USD 88,292	+1.7% (YTD: -5.6%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.77	0.0% (YTD: +8.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	152.18	+0.1% (YTD: +8.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	20.52	-12.4% (YTD: +19.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM fell 0.1% yesterday on turnover of AED 825.4 mn. The index is up 13.0% YTD.

In the green: Dubai Residential REIT (+4.1%), Al Salam Sudan (+3.1%) and Commercial Bank of Dubai (+2.7%).

In the red: National Central Cooling Co (-3.8%), Chimera S&P UAE Shariah ETF- Share class B - Income (-3.2%) and Amlak Finance (-2.4%).

Over on the ADX, the index fell 0.2% on turnover of AED 2.8 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.3%.

UAE-Chile trade, economic agreement takes effect

UAE-Chile CEPA takes effect: The trade and economic partnership agreement (CEPA) between the UAE and Chile entered into effect this week, state news agency Wam reports. The agreement will eliminate tariffs for 99.5% of UAE imports from Chile, paving the way to achieve the countries’ target of doubling non-oil trade to USD 750 mn by 2030, up from USD 270 mn last year. The agreement focuses on bilateral trade and investment in renewable energy, agriculture, logistics, maritime, travel, tourism, infrastructure, and aviation.

DATA POINT- Bilateral non-oil foreign trade reached USD 153 mn in 1H 2025, a 7.1% y-o-y increase. Flows are projected to exceed USD 500 mn within five years.

REMEMBER- The UAE and Chile held negotiations on the trade and economic agreement in April 2024 and signed the pact a few months later in July.

CALENDAR

NOVEMBER

24-27 November (Monday-Thursday): Big 5 Global Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

24-27 November (Monday-Thursday): LiveableCities X, Dubai World Trade Center.

26 November (Wednesday): DFSA-HKMA Joint Climate Finance Conference, Dubai.

26 November (Wednesday): Final allocations for Almasar Education’s IPO on Tadawul.

26-27 November (Wednesday-Thursday): DATE (Digital Acceleration and Transformation Expo), Dubai.

26-27 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Doers Summit, Dubai Digital Park, Dubai Silicon Oasis.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

2-5 December (Tuesday-Friday): Sotheby’s Abu Dhabi Collectors’ Week, Abu Dhabi.

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

3-4 December (Wednesday-Thursday): Binance Blockchain Week, Coca-Cola Arena, Dubai.

7-14 December (Sunday-Sunday): Asian Youth Para Games, APC headquarters, Dubai.

8 December (Monday): DeFi Technologies Insights Global Symposium, Emirates Palace, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): BTC MENA Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Global AI Show, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): The Bridge Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-11 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, ADGM, Al Maryah Island.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

9-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Automechanika Dubai Trade Show, Dubai World Trade Center.

10 December (Wednesday): UAE-Russia Business Forum, Dubai.

12 December (Friday): Emirates NBD to launch an open offer for Mumbai-listed RBL Bank’s public shares.

13-15 December (Saturday-Monday): Mobile Developers Week, Abu Dhabi.

18-23 December (Thursday-Tuesday): Games of the Future, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

26 December (Friday): Tender period for Emirates NBD’s offer for RBL Bank’s public shares ends.

29-30 December (Monday-Tuesday): World Sports Summit, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network;
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organization (WeGO).

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro.

JANUARY 2026

1 January: Client asset regime changes in Dubai International Financial Center take effect.

9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit, UAE.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai Exhibition Center, Dubai.

12-15 January (Monday-Thursday): Dubai International Project Management Forum, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 January - 7 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, International Tennis Center, Zayed Sports City.

FEBRUARY 2026

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-13 February (Monday-Friday): The World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

MARCH 2026

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

30 March - 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, ADNEC Center, Abu Dhabi

APRIL 2026

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai

MAY 2026

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

JUNE 2026

15 June-15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY 2026

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai;
14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai;
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center;
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference;
United Nations Water Conference;
Dubai Future Finance Week;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation ;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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