FAB, BMI optimistic on UAE’s growth this year

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Dubai-based Bybit faces largest hack in the crypto sector yet + Emirates eyes more China flights in mid-2025

Good morning, wonderful people. It’s officially the final workweek before Ramadan, so savor your morning coffees before you bid them farewell for the month.

The news cycle has slowed down over the weekend, with only a handful of stories worth your attention: The UAE is set to disburse a USD 1.5 bn loan to Kenya this week; crypto exchange Bybit faced the biggest theft in the sector yet, with USD 1.5 bn in losses; and Abu Dhabi and Shanghai inked cooperation agreements. Plus: We have some analysis for you on the macro front, with economic growth forecasts from First Abu Dhabi Bank and Fitch’s BMI, and forecasts for Dubai’s real estate sector from Deloitte.

☁️WEATHER- Expect a mostly cloudy day today with a chance of light rainfall in some areas, according to our favorite weather app and the National Center of Meteorology’s forecast (pdf). Temperatures in Dubai are hitting 30°C during the day with an overnight low of 21°C, while Abu Dhabi is expected to see highs of 23°C and an overnight low of 20°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Crypto exchange Bybit faces biggest hack and theft for the crypto industry yet: Dubai-based cryptocurrency exchange Bybit confirmed a theft of over USD 1.5 bn in tokens following a sophisticated cyberattack, with CEO Ben Zhou calling it the “worst hack in financial history” in an X post. Hackers gained control of an ETH cold wallet, transferring over 400k ETH to an unknown address, Zhou said separately. Bybit detected the unauthorized activity during a routine transfer, linking the breach to a potential vulnerability in the Safe.global platform.

Despite the attack, withdrawals remain active, and all other wallets are secure, Zhou later confirmed, emphasizing that Bybit, valued at over USD 20 bn, has “more than enough assets” to cover the loss, with client funds fully backed 1:1 and a bridge loan available if needed. The exchange borrowed ETH to ensure smooth withdrawals and is working with blockchain forensic experts and authorities to track the stolen funds. Bybit has also implemented measures to block hackers from offloading the stolen ETH on legitimate marketplaces.

The crypto exchange is one of the world’s largest, processing more than USD 36 bn in average daily trades, with some USD 16.2 bn in assets before the hack, Bloomberg reports, citing CoinMarketCap data. This puts the stolen ETH at roughly 9% of its total assets.

#2- Emirates eyes new China flights in mid-2025: Emirates will begin daily flights to Shenzhen, China, in mid-2025 using Boeing 777 aircraft, followed by Hangzhou a few weeks later, Bloomberg reports. The airline aims to expand its network to over 140 destinations, with proposed routes to Chengdu, Kinshasa, Brazzaville, Da Nang, Helsinki, and Siem Reap under consideration. The carrier may also operate some routes using fifth freedom rights within Asia ( without starting or ending in the UAE).

REMEMBER- The UAE and China agreed to boost flights last year beyond the current 56 flights per week ceiling. Emirates, which currently operates its maximum of 35 weekly flights to China, is among the biggest beneficiaries of the agreement, with the airline saying it plans to increase flights to the country by 40% on the back of rising demand.

#3- Abu Dhabi Airports completed a comprehensive rehabilitation of Sir Bani Yas Airport, enhancing infrastructure, safety, and sustainability to support growing tourism in Al Dhafra, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. The upgrades include runway and taxiway reconstruction, a revamped lighting system, and new weather observation technology for improved operational efficiency and safety. The airport can now accommodate Code 4E aircraft, which includes Boeing 747-400, Boeing 777, and Airbus A330/340.

#4- Brics on track to dominate global economy within 15 years, Russia says: Russia predicts that the Brics bloc’s GDP will surpass 50% of global economic output within the next 10-15 years, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Wam reports. Speaking to Russia-24, Novak stated that Brics currently accounts for 35% of global GDP and continues to grow annually.

This projection underscores Brics’ increasing influence, especially after its 2024 expansion, which saw Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE join alongside Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The bloc’s combined economic output already exceeds that of the G7.

#5- GCC countries are eyeing USD 188 bn in tourism revenues in 2030, Secretary General of the GCC Jassim Al Badawi told Qatari newspaper Alsharq. The target comes amid economic diversification efforts in the oil economies. Some 68.1 mn tourists visited the countries in 2023, Al Badawi said, bringing in USD 110.4 bn in revenues. More tourism projects are in the pipeline through the Gulf Tourism Strategy (2023-2030), he added.

Background: UAE tourism revenues and tourist numbers have also been on the rise, with The World Travel & Tourism Council reporting that the UAE received 29.2 mn international tourists in 2024 — a 15.5% increase from 2023.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Dubai Integrated Economic Zones Authority’s (Diez) net income increased 35.5% y-o-y in 2024, with revenue up 18.4% y-o-y, according to a Dubai Media Office statement. The number of registered companies in Diez’s economic zones — which include Dubai Airport Freezone, Dubai Silicon Oasis, and Dubai CommerCity — grew 9% y-o-y, while the workforce across these zones expanded by 21%, bringing the total number of employees to over 84k.

#2- Dubai accounted for USD 207 bn (54%) of the GCC’s USD 383 bn real estate transactions in 2024, according to Sakan’s residential real estate market report (pdf). The emirate saw a 20% annual increase in transaction value, while Abu Dhabi saw an increase of 11%, Sharjah saw an increase of 47% and Ras Al Khaimah saw a whopping 117% increase.

By the numbers: Apartment rents in UAE neighborhoods ranged from 1.5k to 2.5k monthly, among the GCC’s highest, with Dubai rents rising by double digits and prompting a rental index to regulate prices. Dubai apartment prices rose 19.5% y-o-y, while villa rents increased 18%; Abu Dhabi saw a 10% rise in villa rents, and Sharjah transactions surged 47%, led by Emirati, Indian, and Arab buyers.

Dubai tops GCC in USD 10 mn+ home sales: Dubai reported 388 residential transactions above USD 10 mn in the year to 3Q 2024, the highest in the GCC. Branded residences, totaling 121 completed or planned units, represented 12.6% of the emirate’s 1H 2024 transaction value.

PSAs-

#1- Public sector employees will work reduced hours during Ramadan, the Federal Authority for Government Human Resources (FAHR) announced on X. Working hours will be from 9am to 2:30pm Mondays to Thursdays and from 9am to 12pm on Fridays. Flexible and remote work arrangements will continue, with up to 70% of the workforce allowed to work remotely on Fridays.

#2- Litigants in Abu Dhabi can now pay legal fees in zero-interest installments, after the Abu Dhabi Judicial Department (ADJD) became the first judicial authority in the region to introduce the service, Khaleej Times reports. The initiative covers all litigation-related costs, including court and public prosecution fees, alternative dispute resolution costs, expert and notary fees, and ADJD service subscriptions. It aims to eliminate financial barriers to litigation to ensure that cost constraints do not hinder individuals or businesses from accessing the courts.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- TheCleanTech Innovators Exhibition’s second cycle kicks off today at the Sustainability and Innovation Center of Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) and ends on Wednesday, as part of UAE Innovates 2025, which started at the beginning of the month. The event will showcase the latest technologies in green hydrogen, sustainability, digital transformation, AI, solar power, and energy storage.

#2- A Dubai government delegation begins its four-day visit to Shenzhen, China today, organized by the emirate’s executive office and Dubai Chambers, state news agency Wam reports. The group will meet public and private sector leaders and tour institutions specializing in technology, innovation, digital economy, urban planning, and sustainability.

The agenda includes meetings with officials from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to boost financial cooperation; a meeting with Shenzhen Capital Group to strengthen SME ties; one with Tencent to explore digital transformation cooperation; and another with Huawei to discuss smart government solutions and BYD. It will also aim to attract Chinese multinationals and unicorns to Dubai.

#3- Connecting Hydrogen MENA kicked off today and will wrap up on Wednesday at Madinat Jumeirah Conference Center in Dubai. The event features more than 50 sessions and 200 speakers, set to discuss clean hydrogen and ammonia. It includes networking activities and a MENA hydrogen exhibition showcasing technologies.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Investopia 2025will kick off on Wednesday and will wrap up on Thursday at the St. Regis Saadiyat in Abu Dhabi. The event features over 100 speakers, including government officials, investors, entrepreneurs, economists, and major investment funds from 20 countries. It will host 2k participants and representatives from global financial and economic institutions.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Germany’s critical elections are in the spotlight this morning: Center-right Christian Democrats came on top after snapping up 29% of the vote, with leader Friedrich Merz promising “independence” from an indifferent United States.

The bloc still needs one more coalition partner for majority, as far-right Alternative for Germany came in a close second with 21%, its highest share ever. Investors will be watching closely for government negotiations, hoping for a “debt brake” reform soon that will ease restrictions on fiscal spending and spur growth.

MEANWHILE-

The Trump administration fired 2k USAID employees and put thousands on leave starting yesterday. (NY Times)
Israel has sent tanks into the West Bank for the first time since 2002, saying it will not allow any displaced Palestinians to return. (CNBC)

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FAB, BMI give their two cents on the UAE’s growth prospects in 2025

FAB, BMI optimistic over the UAE’s growth prospects in 2025: First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) penciled in a forecast of 5.6% growth for the UAE, while Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI said it expects growth to come in at 5.1%, FAB and BMI said in separate reports — namely the 2025 Global Investment Outlook report (pdf) and the MENA Monthly Outlook (pdf). FAB estimated growth to come in at 4.5% in 2024, while BMI saw growth coming in at 3.8%.

Driving the growth: “The non-oil sector will strengthen due to easing inflationary pressures especially in the transport section, lower cost of borrowing, and a large pipeline of projects,” BMI said. “Progress on diversification-related reforms along with a growing high-income population will further boost foreign investment, especially in sectors such as real estate, financial and technology,” BMI added.

The bank continues to favor the UAE and Saudi Arabia, but said it also remains optimistic about emerging opportunities in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. For FAB, Dubai represents a "compelling investment opportunity,” complete with booming growth in the hospitality and real estate sectors, placing the emirate on top of the bank’s “preferred allocation” in its larger outlook for the region. Dubai is followed closely by Abu Dhabi, whose diversification potential and expected healthy corporate earnings in 2025 make it primed for positive growth during the year, according to the report.

These predictions are more optimistic than most: FAB and BMI have a more optimistic outlook than that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank — both of which predicted 4% growth for the UAE this year — as well as that of the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), which penciled in a slightly higher growth estimate of 4.5%.

ON THE GCC FRONT-

FAB, BMI see growth doubling across the GCC this year: FAB and BMI both penciled in a prediction of growth in the GCC reaching 4.2% in 2025, up from estimates of 1.8% for FAB and 2.1% for BMI last year.

FAB sees the growth being driven by “rising/stable oil prices and enhanced non-oil economic contributions,” with investments in tech, healthcare, financial services, and other sectors in GCC countries — particularly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia — projected to fuel future GDP growth.

FAB’s outlook for the GCC is also more optimistic than others: Emirates NBD sees headline growth in the GCC accelerating to 3.5% y-o-y this year. Meanwhile, the World Bank penciled in a prediction of 3.4% growth for the bloc this year, and 4.1% growth in 2026.

Investors cannot afford to sleep on the GCC: For the region as a whole, a “strategic focus on economic diversification, infrastructure development and technological advancement positions the region as an emerging investment hub,” according to FAB, adding that equity investors can unlock significant opportunities within the region. “As the GCC continues to evolve, investors will not only need to embrace its complexities, but also recognize the vast potential for growth and long-term rewards,” the report concluded.

Strong relations with Trump could bear (economic) fruit: “Trump holds good relations with Gulf markets' leaders, with Trump-related organizations heavily invested in Gulf markets like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman. This could possibly materialise in economic and political benefits during his tenure,” according to BMI.

UAE to disburse USD 1.5 bn loan to Kenya in single payment this week

The UAE poised to finalize USD 1.5 bn loan to Kenya: The UAE is set to distribute a USD 1.5 bn loan to Kenya in a single payment by the end of the week, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter. The loan marks a shift from earlier plans to stagger the loan in order to comply with the IMF’s USD 1.3 bn cap on commercial borrowing for the fiscal year.

Background: Kenya sought the financing from the UAE last year to reduce reliance on eurobonds, bilateral lenders like China, and multilateral institutions. The loan agreement follows a trade and investment agreement signed between the two countries in January.

Dubai residential prices to stabilize in 2025 -Deloitte

Dubai’s commercial market will continue to boom this year, while residential price growth is set for a potential slowdown, according to Deloitte’s Middle East Real Estate Predictions 2025 report (pdf). The retail and hospitality sectors are also expected to expand, supported by tourism and increased consumer spending.

THE RESIDENTIAL MARKET-

In 2024, residential sales prices rose 20% y-o-y, reaching an average of AED 1.6k per sqft by December. Villa prices outpaced apartment prices, with Dubailand, Jumeirah Lakes Towers, and Dubai South recording the highest price increases. Secondary market transactions accounted for 44% of total sales, up from 41% in 2023, reflecting strong demand for existing properties.

How rentals fared: Rents increased 19% y-o-y to AED 110 per sqft, with affordable villa and townhouse communities seeing the sharpest hikes. Rents in Dubailand, Meydan, and International City rose between 39% and 46% y-o-y, while Dubai Creek Harbour recorded the lowest increase at 3%. Overall rental transactions rose 1.3% y-o-y in 2024.

Looking ahead: The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in early 2025, though price and rent growth may slow by year-end as new supply enters the market, Deloitte said. This aligns with Knight Frank’s projection of an 8% price increase in 2025.

THE OFFICE MARKET-

Office rents increased 12% y-o-y in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 40%. DIFC offices averaged AED 284 per sqft, while Downtown Dubai reached AED 316 per sqft. Dubai remained a preferred hub for multinational corporations, supported by government-backed economic initiatives and business-friendly policies, despite growing competition from Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.

Looking ahead:The office market is expected to see further rental increases in 2025, driven by strong demand for Grade A office space in DIFC, Downtown Dubai, and Business Bay, alongside a limited supply pipeline. However, while rents in premium locations are likely to rise, secondary markets may see flat or slower growth as companies seek cost-effective alternatives.

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY-

Retail and hospitality posted strong performance in 2024: Retail sales grew, supported by higher consumer spending, increased mall foot traffic, and strong demand for premium retail spaces. In hospitality, a 9% y-o-y rise in overnight visitors to 18.7 mn pushed hotel occupancy to 78%, with ADR reaching AED 690 per night. New hotel openings, including Marsa Al Arab and Atlantis The Royal, contributed to higher demand.

Outlook: The retail sector is projected to grow 6% between 2025 and 2027, driven by population growth, tourism, and investment in retail infrastructure under the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan. Community-focused retail hubs remain a priority. The hospitality sector is also expected to maintain strong demand in 2025, fueled by major events and rising visitor numbers, alongside new developments and higher ADRs supporting revenue growth.

THE INDUSTRIAL MARKET-

Dubai’s industrial sector saw continued rental growth in 2024, driven by strong demand from manufacturing, e-commerce, and third-party logistics. JAFZA led the market with a 28% y-o-y increase, followed by Dubai South and DIP. Rising trade has further strengthened demand for logistics infrastructure, with high occupancy levels and limited supply supporting rental growth.

Outlook: The industrial and logistics sector is expected to expand in 2025, as manufacturing, e-commerce, and third-party logistics drive warehouse demand. Constrained supply and high occupancy in major hubs are likely to sustain rental growth in the near to mid-term.

Contracts worth AED 25.2 bn signed at Idex and Navdex 2025

Defense exhibits Idex and Navdex 2025 saw 55 contracts worth AED 25.2 bn inked over five days, state news agency Wam reports. This includes 15 new agreements worth AED 1.4 bn secured by the Tawazun Council on the last day. Local agreements on the final day amounted to AED 766.3 mn across 11 partnerships, while international ones reached AED 661.6 mn through four contracts. Meanwhile, state defense firm Edge Group locked in some AED 10.7 bn in sales over the length of Idex, signing 32 international agreements and awarding 16 contracts, according to a press release.

These agreements include contracts for International Golden Group for maintenance and supply of military equipment and vehicles, including three valued at AED 462.1 mn for ammunition supply, renewed licenses, and military equipment purchasing, as well as an AED 429.4 mn contract with the US’ Lockheed Martin for the alignment and integration of new Sidewinder missiles.

Other agreements worth noting:

DEFENSE TECH-

#1- Abu Dhabi-based Key Technologies inked an agreement with Greece’s light detection and ranging technologies developer and manufacturer Raymetrics to develop ASTERIA, a next-generation surveillance system designed to detect unauthorized aerial vehicles and prevent mass drone attacks, state news agency Wam reports. The new system, with an AI base, will offer operational applications such as safeguarding global events like the COP conferences, Olympic Games, and G20 summits. It also supports search and rescue operations, maritime surveillance, wildfire prevention, and the protection of energy and water resources.

#2- Edge and Brazilian weapons and Brazilian systems developer Siatt — in which Edge has a 50% stake — secured a contract with the Brazilian Navy to supply MANSUP anti-ship missiles for its new Tamandaré-class frigates, Edge said in a press release.

#3- Caracal to procure small-caliber components in Indonesia: Edge’s ammunition producer Caracal Light Ammunition signed an agreement to procure small-caliber ammunition components from Indonesian defense manufacturer PT Pindad, according to a press release.

#4- Edgesigned an MoU with US-based military navigation firm OSI Maritime Systems at Idex to explore cooperation in developing a national integrated bridge system in the Emirates, the company said in a press release. The two will evaluate how OSI’s technology can be used to develop a system to serve both naval defence and civilian customers.

#5- Condor to provide prison tech to Brazil: Edge Group subsidiary Condor, a non-lethal technologies (NLT) and pyrotechnics manufacturer, signed an agreement worth BRL 7 mn (c. AED 4.5 mn) with Brazil’s National Secretariat for Penal Policies (SENAPPEN) as part of a wider BRL 45 mn (c. AED 28.8 mn) agreement to modernize Brazil’s prison security infrastructure, it said in a press release. The agreement includes NLT tech that will be used by other federal entities in the country and training for prisoner officers.

#6- Katim, Edge Group’s data protection subsidiary, will provide telecom company e& UAE with data protection and encrypted communication technologies, it said in a press release. Katim has also partnered with Nokia, Indra, and Codan Communications.

MAINTENANCE-

GAL, Ammroc, and Pannesma to boost aircraft maintenance operations: Global Aerospace Logistics (GAL) and Advanced Military Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul Center (Ammroc) agreed with Saudi defense company Pannesma to collaborate in aircraft maintenance, upgrades, and overhaul services, according to a press release. The partnership aims to provide Saudi entities with access to MRO facilities and create custom aircraft programs to optimize costs and operational readiness.

MARITIME-

#1- ADSB partners with Germany’s Hensoldt: Edge Group’s naval arm Abu Dhabi Ship Building (ADSB) inked an MoU with German sensor solutions provider Hensoldt, Edge said in a press release. The agreement will also allow Hensoldt to provide ADSB’s customers with products such as the Quadome 3D Air and Surface Surveillance radar and the TRS-4D radar, already in use by the German Navy, Head of Group Global Business Development at Hensoldt Russell Gould said.

#2- ADSB and Intermarine to enhance their technical potential: ADSB also teamed up with maritime firm Intermarine to develop their technical capabilities and expand business avenues, according to a press release.

#3- NoatumMaritime, part of AD Ports Group, launched a JV with Arab Shipbuilding & Repair Yard Company (ASRY) to provide marine services in Bahrain, according to a statement by ASRY. The JV will exclusively handle marine operations at ASRY Shipyard, using Noatum’s fleet and expertise, before expanding to external clients.

MANUFACTURING-

Halcon, Edge’s manufacturing systems arm, will develop an advanced cable harness manufacturing facility in Abu Dhabi for Emirates Cable Corporation Interconnect, according to a press release.

Abu Dhabi Executive Council appoints leaders to health department in governance reshuffle

The Abu Dhabi Executive Council approved three senior appointments to leadership roles within the emirate’s health sector, according to official resolutions issued this week, according to the Abu Dhabi Office. The new hires include:

Rashed Obaid Al Suwaidi (LinkedIn), appointed Director General of the Abu Dhabi Public Health Center, a body tasked with safeguarding public health and managing disease prevention strategies;
Khalaf Helal Al Mazrouei (LinkedIn), appointed Director General of Corporate Enablement and Community Services at the Department of Health – Abu Dhabi (DoH);
Bayna Saif Al Awani (LinkedIn), appointed Director General of Healthcare Payers and Finance Affairs at the DoH.

Dubai’s Hatta Hydro plant to begin clean energy exports in April 2025

ENERGY-

The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority will begin exporting clean energy from its Hatta hydroelectric power plant to Dubai in April 2025, CEO Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer said during a site visit, state news agency Wam reports. The AED 1.4 bn project is 96.8% complete, with operational testing underway since last month and a trial run planned for 1Q 2025.

The details: The 250 MW plant, designed with 1.5k MWh of storage and an 80-year life span, will generate electricity using water stored behind the Hatta Dam and a newly built upper dam in the mountains. Operating with a 78.9% turnaround efficiency, the facility uses solar power from the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park to pump water back to the upper dam, enabling on-demand electricity generation within 90 seconds.

INFRASTRUCTURE-

The Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) awarded a contract valued at AED 798 mn (c. USD 217 mn) for the development of Al Qudra Street, according to a statement. The project will extend from the intersection with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Road, through Sheikh Zayed bin Hamdan Al Nahyan Street, and to Emirates Road. The scope of the project includes the development of several interchanges, the construction of 2.7k meter long bridges, and an 11.6 km street extension.

Upon completion, Al Qudra Street is expected to accommodate 19.2k vehicles per hour, and serve an estimated population and visitor base of 400k individuals in nearby residential and developmental areas. The expansions are also set to reduce travel time from 9.4 minutes to 2.8 minutes.

F&B-

Jafza + Haldiram’s to build major saffron processing facility: The Jebel Ali Freezone (Jafza) inked an agreement with Indian food giant Haldiram’s to establish one of the largest saffron processing facilities in the GCC, according to a Dubai Media Office statement. The facility, which will be managed by saffron processing specialist Kesar Expert & Packer, is set to begin operations in March 2025. It will initially process 30 metric tonnes of saffron, with plans to scale up to 100 tonnes over five years. The entities also discussed plans to expand Haldiram’s presence in Dubai and explore additional investments in food processing and distribution.

SUSTAINABILTY-

#1- Kezad Group + ETG to build polymers factory: Sustainable manufacturing firm ETG Bio Green Polymer signed a 50-year land lease agreement with Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad Group) to build an AED 150 mn compostable polymers factory in Kezad Al Ma’mourah, according to a press release from Friday. The facility – spanning some 22 sq km – will produce compostable polymer resin as a plastic-free packaging material to help decarbonize the packaging industry. No timeline was disclosed for the project.

Not Kezad’s first: Dubai-based polymer supplier Gulf Biopolymers Industries (GBI) announced plans in 2024 to build the region’s first biodegradable PLA polymer production facility in Kezad. The facility — for which GBI signed a 50-year lease agreement— will span 135k sq meters and is planned to have an annual 30k ton PLA production volume.

#2- Abu Dhabi Mobility partners with Gigatons: Abu Dhabi’s Integrated Transport Center (Abu Dhabi Mobility) inked an agreement with UAE-based decarbonization tech acceleration platform Gigatons to adopt advanced technologies in electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. Initial projects planned for 2025 and 2026 include multi-modal charging stations for cars, trucks, taxis, and electric bicycles, as well as heavy electric vehicle solutions in ports and autonomous vehicle infrastructure. The agreement was signed during UAE Innovates 2025.

REFRESHER- Launched last December by the founders of the UK’s renewables-based EV charging company Gridserve, Gigatons focuses on accelerating the net-zero transition by mobilizing capital, scaling infrastructure, and enhancing transparency and trust.

MARITIME-

Dubai Maritime Authority expands telecom network: The Dubai Maritime Authority announced at the Dubai International Boat Show 2025 a telecommunications network expansion project to enhance connectivity along Dubai’s coastal waters and artificial islands, according to a press release. The initiative, developed in collaboration with three strategic partners, aims to improve maritime communication, support navigation, and enhance emergency response capabilities.

The first phase—testing key maritime routes to assess network coverage—has been completed. The project will install four telecommunications towers across Dubai Islands, The World Islands, Palm Jebel Ali, and Dubai Waterfront. At the boat show, DMA also showcased initiatives including guidance on marine vehicle licensing, vessel registration support, and a simulation room offering virtual maritime experiences.

REAL ESTATE-

Ayat Development launches Ayamore Residence on Dubai Islands: Ayat Development, a subsidiary of Ayat Group, launched its new residential project, Ayamore Residence, on Dubai Islands, with a total investment of AED 300 mn, the company said in a statement. The project is scheduled for completion in 1Q 2027, Emarat Alyoum reports.

All eyes are on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, out this week

Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures index — set to be released this week. The data could reinforce or challenge expectations for a rate cut later this year, the Financial Times writes. While the index is expected to tick up 0.3% m-o-m in January, slightly above December’s 0.2%, the annual rate is forecasted to dip to 2.6% from 2.8%, according to a Reuters poll.

The market is already jittery after January’s hotter-than-expected consumer price index, which saw core inflation rise to 3.3%, surpassing forecasts of 3.1%. The inflation surprise reshaped rate cut expectations, with futures traders now pricing in a quarter-point cut by September, and a 70% chance of another cut before year-end.

The risk: Inflation could prove stickier than expected. “Despite our expectation that inflation will slow solidly over the next couple of months, we feel the risks are skewed to the upside of our forecast over the next year or so — particularly from current and proposed administration policies,” UBS economist Alan Detmeister said.

Policymakers are also signaling caution: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic flagged the complexity of trade, immigration, and regulatory shifts, calling them “crosscurrents” that complicate decision-making. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that inflation could remain high even as economic growth slows, reinforcing concerns that the Fed’s “modestly restrictive” stance on interest rates could stick around longer than markets anticipate.

The real test: The Fed’s inflation target remains at 2%, but the path back to that level is uncertain. While investors are penciling in rate cuts by September, some economists argue the Fed could stay put if price pressures persist. “This is no time for complacency,” Bostic said.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed in early trading this morning — the Shanghai Composite is down 0.2% and the Kospi is down 0.8%, meanwhile the Hang Seng is looking at gains of 0.2%.

ADX	9,618	0.0% (YTD: +2.1%)
DFM	5,359	-0.4% (YTD: +3.9%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,423	-0.4% (YTD: +6.2%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.2% o/n	4.4% 1 yr
TASI	12,388	+0.6% (YTD: +2.9%)
EGX30	31,010	+0.3% (YTD: +4.3%)
S&P 500	6,013	-1.7% (YTD: +2.2%)
FTSE 100	8,659	0.0% (YTD: +6.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,475	+0.3% (YTD: +11.8%)
Brent crude	USD 74.43	-2.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.23	+2.0%
Gold	USD 2,953	-0.1%
BTC	USD 95,660	-1.0% (YTD: +2.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM fell 0.4% on Friday, on turnover of AED 541.4 mn. The index is up 3.9% YTD.

In the green: International Financial Advisors (+10.1%), Union Properties (+9.1%) and Depa Limited (+6.3%).

In the red: National International Holding Company (-6.9%), Al Salam Sudan (-2.9%) and Watania International Holding (-2.8%).

Over on the ADX, the index stayed flat, on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai closed down 0.4%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Burjeel Holding’s management is mulling a share buyback of up to 10% of its share capital, pending the green light from shareholders and the UAE’s Securities and Commodities Authority, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The move will be funded through the Group’s operating cash flow and executed via open-market purchases.

Burjeel is evaluating several options for the repurchased shares, including resale depending on market conditions, allocation to long-term incentive plans, and other capital management strategies.

REMEMBER- The company expects revenue growth this year to come in the mid-teens on the back of the conversion of investments and operational efficiencies, growing its income before tax by a 25% compound annual growth rate over the next four years.

Abu Dhabi boosts cooperation with Shanghai + UAE, Pakistan eye more cooperation

The Abu Dhabi government signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai’s Municipal People’s Government during a visit by an economic delegation to China, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. The agreement covers sectors including business, trade, finance, science, tech, education, culture, health, tourism, and ports. The Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ADCCI) and the Shanghai Federation of Industry and Commerce also partnered to promote bilateral trade and streamline investment processes.

The delegation explored potential collaboration with Chinese companies including ByteDance, consumer electronics firm Xiaomi, investment group Legend Holding, Xiaodong, manufacturing conglomerate BYD, financial services firm CICC, and tech company CATL. Last week, the Abu Dhabi Investment Office (Adio) inked a raft of agreements with Chinese companies to increase bilateral investment cooperation, including with media company Yicai Global.

Bilateral trade between the two countries is expected to hit USD 200 bn by 2030. The number of Chinese companies registered with ADCCI rose by 69.4% in 2024, while UAE investments in China increased by 120%.

UAE, Pakistan discuss trade, investment, and regional stability: Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar in Abu Dhabi to discuss strengthening bilateral ties, according to a ministry statement. The talks focused on expanding cooperation in trade, investment, energy, defense, and cultural exchanges. The two leaders also reviewed regional and global developments, emphasizing the importance of peace, stability, and shared economic growth.

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

7 February-29 April (Friday-Tuesday): The Abu Dhabi Festival, Abu Dhabi.

16 February-1 March (Sunday-Saturday): Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Championships, Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Stadium in Al Garhoud.

20-25 February (Thursday-Tuesday): Subscription period for retail and institutional investors for Alpha Data’s IPO.

21-25 February (Friday-Tuesday): Made in Russia Festival & Fair, Yas Bay Waterfront, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi.

24-25 February (Monday-Tuesday): World Passenger Experience Forum, Dubai.

24-26 February (Monday-Wednesday): Connecting Hydrogen MENA, Dubai.

26-27 February (Wednesday-Thursday): Affiliate World Dubai 2025, Dubai World Trade Center.

26 February (Wednesday): Final price announcement for Alpha Data’s IPO.

26-27 February (Wednesday-Thursday): Investopia 2025, the St. Regis, Abu Dhabi.

MARCH

1 March (Saturday): Start of Ramadan.

5 March (Wednesday): Final share allocation for Alpha Data’s IPO.

8 March (Saturday): Future Women Leaders Forum 2025, Taj Exotica, The Palm, Dubai

11 March (Tuesday): Alpha Data shares begin trading.

18-19 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

29 March (Saturday): New traffic regulations and minimum driving age to take effect.

31 March-2 April (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Fitr, national holiday.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1Q 2025:

The first eight fronds of the Palm Jebel Ali will be site-ready, allowing for the commencement of villa infrastructure and civil works.

APRIL

1 April (Tuesday): New ADGM employment regulations come into effect.

1 April (Tuesday): New personal status law comes into effect.

6-11 April (Sunday-Friday): Geo-Spatial Week, Dubai.

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Investment Summit, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): World Local Production Forum's 3rd edition, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

11-13 April (Friday-Sunday): I-Film Festival, Yas Creative Hub, Abu Dhabi.

12-13 April (Saturday-Sunday): Global Justice, Love & Peace Summit, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City Dubai.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Dubai Woodshow’s 21st Edition, Dubai World Trade Center

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): IPS congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

14-26 April (Monday-Saturday): Solana Economic Zone, Dubai.

15-17 April (Tuesday-Thursday): The Abu Dhabi Global Health Week, Adnec center, Abu Dhabi.

16-18 April (Wednesday-Friday): World Future Energy Summit,Abu Dhabi National Exhibition, Abu Dhabi.

21-25 April (Monday-Friday): The Dubai AI Week, Museum of the Future and Area 2071, Emirates Towers, Dubai.

22-24 April (Tuesday-Thursday): DOMOTEX Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

25 April-11 May (Friday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai World Trade Center.

28 April-1 May (Monday-Thursday): The Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center

28 April-2 May (Monday-Friday): The 64th Annual Conference of the International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers’ Associations (IFATCA)

Signposted to happen sometime in April:

Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League, Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi

MAY

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Ports Forum, Dubai.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

13-16 May (Tuesday-Friday): International Union for Health Promotion and Education Conference, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Cabsat Middle East and Satellite Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

15 May (Thursday-Sunday): The Economy Middle East Summit, ADGM, Abu Dhabi.

15-18 May (Thursday-Sunday): The GLA Global Logistics Conference, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

16-18 May (Friday-Sunday): GISEC, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-22 May (Monday-Thursday): Make it in the Emirates, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

20-22 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East 2025, Dubai World Trade Center.

23-25 May (Friday-Sunday): EuroLeague Final Four, Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi.

26-28 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arab Media Summit, World Trade Center, Dubai.

30 May (Friday): Arafat Day.

31 May-2 June (Saturday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

Signposted to happen sometime in May:

Asean and summit, Malaysia.

JUNE

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Middle East Rail, Dubai World Trade Center.

27 June (Friday): Islamic New Year.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

JULY

6-7 July (Sunday-Monday): BRICS Summit, Rio de Janeiro.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): DigiHealth exhibition, World Trade Center, Dubai.

16-17 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mohammed Bin Rashid Leadership Forum, Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development, Dubai.

OCTOBER

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The 8th International Symposium on the System of Radiological Protection, the Ritz-Carlton Abu Dhabi, Grand Canal.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

17-19 October (Friday-Sunday): The International Real Estate and Investment Show, Abu Dhabi.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

15-17 November (Saturday-Monday): Myplant & Garden Middle East Green Expo, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow 2025, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)
The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Global Implementation Support Symposium, Abu Dhabi.
Universal Postal Congress 2025, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in the fall of 2025:

2025 Games of the Future, Dubai.
ICOM General Conference 2025, Dubai

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference 2026, UAE
9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit’s fourth edition, UAE

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime between 2027 and 2029:

The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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