DIFC evacuated?

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: A Mubadala arbitration W forces a private foundation into insolvency + IEA greenlights opening up the emergency reserves

Good morning, friends. The “business as usual” facade in Dubai is facing its biggest stress test yet.

The glass towers of the DIFC are a lot emptier this morning. After a week of trying to maintain a sense of normalcy, the narrative hit a wall yesterday as major US financial and tech firms — including Goldman Sachs, Citi, and others — reportedly pulled the trigger on evacuation and remote-work protocols following a threat from Iran of plans to target US financial and tech sector presence in the region.

Why it matters: The DIFC is the beating heart of Dubai. When the world’s biggest banks and tech firms pivot to emergency footing, the signal to global markets is louder than any government communiqué.

What’s next: With the Eid break around the corner, we’re looking at a natural cooling-off period for the city’s offices. The real data point won't be who leaves this week, but who actually comes back to the desk after the holiday.

While disruptions continue, some small bright spots are still emerging. Construction on major projects, namely Wynn Resorts in Ras Al Khaimah, is still on track, and it appears not as many Americans are hauling out of the country as was earlier expected.

WEATHER- Expect partly cloudy conditions this morning, along with a high of 28°C and a low of 22°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Watch this space

DISPUTE WATCH — Mubadala’s arbitration W in Europe forces private foundation into insolvency: Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment secured a c.EUR 1 bn arbitration award against Laura Privatstiftung, a private foundation co-founded by René Benko, the former owner of the embattled Austrian real estate group Signa, Bloomberg reports. Last month, the fund secured an initial arbitration award of EUR 700 mn related to the dispute. The new figure likely refers to the final enforceable decision, including accrued interest, fees, and several other claims it had against entities linked to Signa.

The foundation was forced to file for insolvency in Innsbruck due to its inability to meet its obligations to the sovereign wealth fund following the ruling.

Where does that leave Mubadala? Mubadala should be able to recoup some of its dues, but that will ultimately depend on Austria’s insolvency process, which also includes a host of other judicial battles related to Signa’s meltdown in 2023. Signa — which once controlled about USD 29 bn in assets, including London’s Selfridges department store — collapsed into insolvency in 2023 amid rising borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions across the real estate sector.

BACKGROUND- Mubadala has been pursuing the recovery of roughly EUR 900 mn from Signa, Benko, and affiliated trusts, alleging breaches of financing agreements tied to the fund’s lending exposure.

HOSPITALITY — Work on Wynn Al Marjan is back on track: Following a brief pause triggered by the escalating US-Israeli war with Iran — which has caused a whole host of disruptions and forced partial closures of UAE airspace — Wynn Resorts is resuming construction on its USD 5.2 bn Al Marjan Island integrated resort in Ras Al Khaimah, according to a press release. The Las Vegas casino operator is eyeing a 1Q 2027 launch for the resort.

To manage personnel risks, the developer has implemented a flexible work from home policy for employees whose home embassies have issued travel advisories.

ICYMI- The project is a pillar of the UAE’s tourism drive — an industry that is looking ever more uncertain.

HOUSING — Dubai rolls out new shared housing regulation: Vice President and Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum issued a new law regulating shared housing across all residential developments and freezones, according to Dubai Media Office.

The rules: Only property owners or authorized management firms can designate units for shared housing, prohibiting tenants from subleasing. The law requires all arrangements to be registered through a unified digital platform managed by the Dubai Municipality and the Dubai Land Department. The law will be effective 180 days after its formal publication, and there is a one-year grace period for compliance.

Violations: The legislation also introduces a permit system with financial penalties ranging from AED 500 to AED 500k for non-compliance, as well as administrative measures such as utility disconnections or license revocation. Repeated violations within one year carry doubled fines of up to AED 1 mn.

Data point

40k+ — that’s how many Americans have left the Middle East since the Iran war broke out at the end of last month, according to a statement from the US State Department.

The awkward detail? Even with Washington setting aside USD 40 mn for emergency charters, those flights are leaving more empty than full, with average occupancy running below 40% — indicating many Americans are either booking their own way out or deciding the region remains manageable enough to stay put. More than 27k asked for help, but most later turned down the seat when it became available, the US State Department said.

The big story abroad

Making headlines this morning is the US’ plan to release 172 mn barrels of oil from its emergency reserve, as part of a coordinated effort by the International Energy Agency to curb surging energy prices triggered by the Iran war. The Trump administration will start releasing barrels over the coming weeks and over a 120-day period.

^^ We have more on the IEA’s plan to release 400 mn barrels of oil in the news well, above.

ALSO- Several international outlets are taking note of how much the US has spent on its war on Iran — the bill came to an estimated USD 11.3 bn in the first six days of the campaign on the Islamic Republic.

Meanwhile, on Wall Street: Alternative investment firm Cliffwater has placed a 7% cap on redemptions of its flagship private credit fund, after investors tried to withdraw some 14% of shares — one of the largest requests seen in the market. Withdrawals from the fund came amid growing concerns over the quality of loans linked to software companies whose business models are now under threat from advancements in AI tech. Hours after news of the cap came to light, Morgan Stanley followed suit with similar limits.

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Oil watch

IEA opens the emergency taps: In a turnaround, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it is releasing 400 mn barrels of oil from the 32 member states’ strategic reserves. The barrels will be released over a set time period and be allocated according to each country’s needs.

We were expecting things to go differently after the G7 and IEA said they are holding off on releasing oil reserves earlier this week. We suspect that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards recently saying it wouldn’t allow “one liter of oil” to leave the region should US-Israeli strikes continue and Brent briefly hitting USD 120 bbl had something to do with the change of heart.

How much difference will 400 mn make? To put it into perspective, pre-war, around 20 mn barrels passed through the Strait of Hormuz everyday, representing around 25% of maritime oil trade. This means that the barrels should cover around 20 days’ worth of supply.

IN CONTEXT- The 400 mn figure is significantly larger than the 182 mn released by the agency when Russia invaded Ukraine, making it the largest move of its kind.

Iran’s message: “Get ready for oil to be USD 200 per barrel,” a military spokesperson said in comments picked up by Reuters.

Over at Opec+, the group said Saudi Arabia had hiked production in February before the war as part of a contingency plan anticipating that a US strike on Iran could disrupt supplies, Reuters reports, citing the group’s monthly report (pdf). The Kingdom’s production came in at 10.9 mn bbl / d during the month. Opec+ had previously agreed to keep output steady through 1Q of this year before raising production by 206k bbl / d in April.

Oil price rises, despite all efforts: Brent crude surged by as much as 8.2% to USD 99.54 this morning after reports of tanker attacks in Iraqi waters raised fears that we could be looking at supply disruptions that extend beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reports.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

DIFC evacuated?

Several employees in DIFC we spoke to told us their offices were evacuated early yesterday, shortly after a drone fell near Dubai International Airport, and as Iran was reported to be targeting US banks and tech firms with Israeli links. Reports citing Iranian state-linked media suggest these include Google, Microsoft, Oracle, IBM, and Nvidia.

Two employees at different firms — a financial services company and a wealth management firm — said they were told to work remotely until the end of the week, while unconfirmed reports suggest that Standard Chartered and Citi have also evacuated their offices. A memo to employees from Citi reportedly said to work remotely until further notice, while Goldman Sachs was separately quoted by Bloomberg as saying that “the decision to evacuate three of our buildings in the UAE was made out of an abundance of caution.”

Standard Chartered didn’t confirm or deny the news, with its UAE CEO Rola Abu Manneh saying that its “banking services in the UAE continue without interruption … [but the firm has] extended work-from-home for many of our teams as a precautionary step.”

Many in DIFC had just returned to the office this week, after working remotely for the past week. The move for some to evacuate one of the UAE’s two major financial hubs and revert to remote work is a big step backward as the government continues to bang the “we are safe” drum, presenting a calm facade for both businesses and residents alike — even down to the change of the jarring safety alert sound that jolts our phones overnight to a softer chime.

Earlier this week, Dubai Crown Prince Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum met with 300 business leaders at The Majlis in a bid to discuss business continuity and deliver the same message the government has been sending all along: “The UAE is strong [...] and we will emerge stronger.”

Why this matters

Tech and finance firms are arguably the lifeblood of Dubai, with dozens of multinational firms having set up their headquarters in the emirate in recent years. US banks and financial services firms, as well as Big Tech firms like those allegedly mentioned by Iran, have significant operations in the UAE and have pledged bns of investments in the country.

BACKGROUND- Microsoft committed over USD 7.9 bn in data centers in the UAE last year, while Oracle and Nvidia are working on the massive 5 GW US-UAE AI data center cluster in Abu Dhabi, which had been set to open this year.

What to watch

With the Eid break coming up next week, we don’t expect a mass return to offices anytime soon. Some are taking up their companies’ “work from abroad” policies, others are leaving in the initial panic-induced exodus, and others are bridging vacations with Eid. As a result, expect the normally packed DIFC and ADGM to remain somewhat bare until after Eid and until the coming weeks show whether there was any truth to Iran’s recent threats.

More attacks at Hormuz

The state of alarm continued last night, with the Defense Ministry dealing with another missile threat. Authorities advised people to stay in a safe place and follow official updates as defense systems worked on interception efforts. Around an hour later, an ‘all-clear’ message confirmed it was safe to resume normal operations.

Along with the disruption to daily life — and most recently to work in financial sectors — the UAEs’ aviation and trade sectors are continuing to be rattled by the war:

Further from home: A drone has hit fuel tanks in Oman’s Salalah Port, where operations at the container and general cargo terminals have been halted, according to the Oman News Agency.

Airspace disruptions continue

Operations at DXB were halted temporarily yesterday morning after a close call with drones. Two drones fell near Dubai International Airport (DXB), injuring four people, though traffic resumed “operating as normal,” according to a statement on X. The airport had also temporarily suspended operations this weekend after falling debris from intercepted missiles disrupted operations.

Over in Abu Dhabi, authorities put out a fire that broke out at the emirate’s old airport after air defense systems carried out a successful interception, according to a post on X.

Hormuz attacks also paint a bleak picture for regional trade

Hopes for a safeguarded return to Hormuz were also crushed following fresh attacks: Three vessels sustained damage yesterday morning off the UAE and Omani coastline from a “suspected but unknown projectile,” the UKMTO said.

Two of the three were hit off the coast of the UAE. The first vessel — Thailand-flagged — was hit some 25 meters northwest of Ras Al Khaimah, while the second was hit around 50 meters northwest of Dubai. Investigations are currently underway to assess the extent of the damage to both ships, but all crew members are safe. The third — a Japanese container ship — was hit some 11 meters north of Oman.

Trade flows haven’t stopped entirely — Iran is still reportedly going ahead with its oil exports to China and India, with “at least nine sanctioned tankers operating in or around the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24hrs,” maritime risk analyst Martin Kelly said on LinkedIn.

Why this matters: These incidents are part of a surge in regional maritime hostilities following US and Israeli strikes on Iran last week. With hundreds of ships now anchored in Hormuz, the disruption to Middle East oil exports has moved from a temporary shock to a structural paralysis. Saudi Aramco has already warned of “catastrophic consequences” for global markets if this issue remains unresolved.

Are there any workarounds?

Adnoc has instructed its onshore partners to collect their Murban crude from the Port of Jebel Dhanna, located inside the Arabian Gulf just behind Hormuz. At least two of the six equity holders of Adnoc’s onshore output were told that their March supply must be picked up from this terminal.

The move comes as some shipowners are increasingly avoiding Fujairah — the UAE's primary export hub outside the Strait of Hormuz — due to reported missile threats. The shipowners now avoiding Fujairah have canceled their shipments — a move that should allow producers to resell and mark up the cargoes. However, Fujairah is one of the few terminals still exporting in the region.

The disruption is spreading beyond oil: Both DP World and AD Ports enacted temporary contingency arrangements to allow customers to reroute import containers from Khorfakkan and Fujairah ports to Dubai’s Jebel Ali via bonded road transit earlier this week.

A forced reversal of strategy? The UAE spent years building infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but now missile threats at Fujairah are forcing volumes back inside the waterway. While this move allows Adnoc to potentially resell canceled cargoes at higher prices, it adds a layer of complexity for equity holders who now must navigate vessels through a high-risk zone to reach Jebel Dhanna.

The move to Jebel Dhanna will be a litmus test for shipowner appetite. We will be looking at whether tankers are actually willing to move past the strait to reach the new pickup point, or if this simply results in further stranded volumes.

AED trading pairs live on Bybit

Bybit rolls out AED trading pairs

( Dubai-based crypto exchange Bybit introduced AED-denominated trading pairs, allowing users in the UAE to buy and sell major digital assets directly using AED balances, according to a press release (pdf). The move means users funding their accounts through UAE bank transfers can trade without first converting into another currency.

The platform now supports four AED spot pairs — USDT/AED, BTC/AED, ETH/AED, and SOL/AED. Once AED funds are deposited via local bank transfer, the balance can be used immediately to trade these assets on the exchange. In practice, that means users can move money from a domestic bank account onto an exchange and begin trading without routing funds through multiple currencies or external payment channels.

Debt window dash

Calm lasted just long enough for borrowers to sprint through it. Investment-grade US issuers sold more than USD 65 bn of bonds on Tuesday — the busiest single day on record — as companies rushed to lock in funding while markets briefly steadied on hopes that the Iran war might not widen, the Financial Times reports.

Amazon led the dash: The company launched 11 USD tranches to raise USD 37 bn, upsized from initial guidance after drawing roughly USD 123 bn in orders, while also preparing an inaugural EUR 10 bn eurosale as it leans further into debt to fund AI infrastructure.

The queue behind it was unusually crowded. Nearly 12 blue-chip issuers — including Honeywell Aerospace and the finance arms of Toyota Motor Corporation and Ford Motor Company — piled in at once, pushing issuance past the previous one-day record set when Verizon Communications sold USD 49 bn in 2013.

Why the urgency? Because in this market, windows barely stay open. One fixed-income trader told the FT that issuances have shifted from being planned “week by week to hour by hour” — stability now comes in tradable bursts.

That urgency follows a week when borrowers mostly stayed on the sidelines. Bloomberg reported that all companies preparing to tap the US market on Monday stood down, while parts of Europe’s pipeline also paused as default risks rose amid the regional war and increasing oil prices.

The repricing underneath has been quick: Europe’s iTraxx Crossover moved above 300 bps for the first time since June, and Asian investment-grade credit default swaps also widened — a reminder that investors are charging more again to insure against repayment risk.

And the cushion is thinning fast: The global high-grade credit index has already shed almost all of its 2026 gains after being up 1.6% just over a week ago, leaving issuers to borrow whenever calm returns before oil, yields, or headlines close the window again.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are a sea of red in early trading this morning after Brent crude jumped close to the USD 100 bbl mark on reports of fresh attacks on tankers in Iraqi water, raising fears of a wider supply disruption beyond the Strait of Hormuz. It is shaping up to be an equally volatile day of trading on Wall Street, with futures down.

ADX	9,865	-1.3% (YTD: -1.3%)
DFM	5,726	-2.4% (YTD: -5.3%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,701	-2.7% (YTD: -3.8%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	3.6% 1 yr
TASI	10,942	+0.1% (YTD: +4.3%)
EGX30	47,195	-1.2% (YTD: +12.8%)
S&P 500	6,776	-0.1% (YTD: -1.0%)
FTSE 100	10,354	-0.6% (YTD: +4.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,795	-0.7% (YTD: +0.1%)
Brent crude	USD 98.69	+7.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.26	+1.6%
Gold	USD 5,160	-0.4%
BTC	USD 70,348	+0.6% (YTD: -19.7%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.69	+0.3% (YTD: -1.6%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	152.05	+0.4% (YTD: +0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	24.23	-2.8% (YTD: +62.21%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 1.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.7 bn. The index is down 1.3% YTD.

In the green: Al Dhafra Ins. Co (+14.9%), Aram Group (+9.8%), and Orascom Construction (+2.0%).

In the red: The National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah (-5.0%), Gulf Cement Co. (-5.0%), and Aldar Properties (-4.9%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 2.4% on turnover of AED 1.6 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 2.7%.

CALENDAR

MARCH

19-20 March (Thursday-Friday): Eid Al Fitr, public holiday.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March - 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

31 March-2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

6-9 April (Monday-Thursday): Dubai AI Week, Dubai.

7-8 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai AI Festival, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

29 April (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Annual MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit.
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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Today at a glance

THIS MORNING: A Mubadala arbitration W forces a private foundation into insolvency + IEA greenlights opening up the emergency reserves