Good morning, lovely people. The big theme this morning is looking back at 2025 — from IPOs and venture capital trends to real estate sales and prices in Dubai. But the big story of the day is a major regulatory change from the Dubai Financial Services Authority, which has done away with its recognized crypto token list and has shifted responsibility for crypto token “suitability” onto firms. Plus: It removed crypto investment caps for fund managers.
The move allows firms and funds a lot more flexibility to hike (and diversify) crypto exposure, but this comes with a much heftier compliance burden.
Happening today
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week kicked off earlier this week and runs until Thursday, 15 January at the Adnec Center, bringing together global leaders to discuss sustainability action across interconnected systems. Heads of state including Philippines’ Ferdinand Marcos Jr, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, and Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu are among those expected to attend.
The week’s program includes:
- The World Future Energy Summit, which runs from today until Thursday;
- The ADSW Dialogues and Wiser Forum, which kicked off Sunday and run through to Thursday;
- The Global South Utilities Forum, taking place tomorrow;
- The Global Climate Finance Center Annual Meeting and Green Hydrogen Summit, which close the summit on Thursday.
Other conferences coming up this week:
- Industrial trade show SteelFab kicked off yesterday and runs through Thursday at the Expo Center Sharjah;
- The Dubai International Project Management Forum kicked off yesterday and runs through Thursday in Dubai;
- Fespa Middle East begins today and runs until Thursday at the Dubai Exhibition Center.
WEATHER- Near-zero visibility? Be careful while driving this morning — a thick fog is expected in the early hours of the morning across the UAE, according to the National Center of Meteorology. Meanwhile, the mercury is set to peak at 25°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with Dubai seeing an overnight low of 17°C, and the capital seeing a low of 15°C.
Watch this space
PORTS — Somalia’s government said it is annulling all of its contracts for ports, defense, and security with the UAE over what its Council of Ministers said were “actions undermining [its] national security,” Reuters reports, citing a government statement.
DP World has been working on developing the port of Berbera in Somaliland, a breakaway region in Somalia, the independence of which was recently recognized by Israel in a move condemned by the UAE and other countries as attacking Somalia’s sovereignty.
DEBT — Emirates NBD is teeing up an issuance of digitally native notes (DNN), in what would be its first-ever offering of the kind, Zawya reports. The DFM-listed lender tapped banks for an AED-denominated, Reg S three-year fixed-rate note to be issued under its USD 20 bn Medium-Term Note (EMTN) program. This comes a little less than a week after the lender raised USD 1 bn split between blue and green bond tranches that were over 2x oversubscribed.
Sound smart: For investors, a DNN looks and behaves like any other fixed-rate note; for issuers, the advantage lies in faster settlement and more efficient post-trade processing.
ADVISORS- Our friends at Mashreq alongside Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, and Standard Chartered are joint lead managers and bookrunners on the transaction, with Emirates NBD Capital and Standard Chartered acting as joint DNN structurers.
FX — The USD is on track for another weak year in 2026 as political pressure on the Federal Reserve and internal policy splits cloud the greenback’s outlook, according to a recent Emirates NBD research note. For the UAE, whose currency is pegged to the USD, this a tailwind for non-oil exports that offsets the sting of more expensive European imports.
Unlocking liquidity: Regional central banks are expected to mirror a projected 75 bps Fed rate cut in 2026. This easing is anticipated to stimulate domestic demand by freeing up corporate capital for capex and investment that was previously sidelined by high borrowing costs. The region’s solid credit standing is likely to buffer against potential US Treasury volatility, keeping borrowing costs stable and fueling non-oil economic expansion.
BANKING — CI Capital bullish on UAE banks: UAE banks face an “upbeat” mid-term outlook, driven by solid fundamentals and a favorable macro environment, according to a CI Capital report picked up by Zawya.
The scorecard: Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank takes the regional top spot for its growth profile, while Emirates NBD replaces First Abu Dhabi Bank due to margin tailwinds from its Turkish operations. Saudi National Bank remains the firm’s “top fundamental pick” in MENA, joined by Al Rajhi Bank, which stands to benefit from the removal of foreign ownership limits on the Tadawul exchange. Saudi Awwal Bank and Kuwait’s NBK also made the top-tier cut.
INVESTMENT — GFH Partners is targeting an increase in its assets under management by at least USD 1 bn over the next 12 months, aiming to reach USD 7.5 bn by year-end, CEO Nael Mustafa told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 4:40). The firm also plans to open three new funds in 1Q, and is set to acquire income-generating assets in Saudi Arabia, as well as launch a new storage facility development in Riyadh.
JOBS — Some 72% of professionals plan to switch jobs in 2026, even as 65% say finding a role has become harder over the past year, according to LinkedIn data cited by Gulf News. That follows a strong hiring run in 2Q (up 4% q-o-q) and 3Q 2025 (up 3% q-o-q) — the fastest pace in the GCC.
Competition is the choke point: An overcrowded candidate pool is now the biggest hurdle for 63% of jobseekers, with the squeeze most acute in tech, finance, marketing, aviation, hospitality, and healthcare.
GO DEEPER: This overcrowding is also starting to show up in pay trends: As we’ve previously reported, Cooper Fitch expects UAE salary growth to cool to 1.6% in 2026, as labor supply outpaces demand, though CEO Trefor Murphy says this won’t derail hiring or the UAE’s pull for global talent.
The hiring process is getting murkier: Some 35% of jobseekers say they receive no response at all after applying — as AI also tightens the funnel. While 81% of professionals say they’re confident using AI at work, 56% don’t understand how it affects their visibility, and 46% aren’t sure how to stand out when algorithms screen applications. On the hiring side, 68% of recruiters aren’t fully grasping how AI is affecting the hiring process.
Pressure cuts both ways: Three in four hiring professionals say it’s harder to find qualified talent, pointing to a widening mismatch between roles on offer and skills in demand — leaving a market that’s active, selective, and increasingly unforgiving on both sides.
The big story abroad
The escalation of US President Donald Trump’s fight against US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell via a criminal probe has drawn pushback from Republican senators as well as former Central Bank governors, as the move threatens to backfire and lead to wider support of the Fed chair. Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican on the Banking Committee, which vets Fed nominees, vowed to oppose any Trump nominees to the Fed until the matter is resolved, while several other senators have spoken out against threats to the Fed’s independence.
Some analysts have also said the move will likely push Powell to stay on the Board of Governors, where his term ends in 2028, in defiance and in order to protect the Fed’s independence.
Meanwhile, former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan wrote a statement denouncing the move, saying:” This is how monetary policy is made in emerging markets with weak institutions, with highly negative consequences for inflation and the functioning of their economies more broadly.”
Even US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Trump on Sunday that the investigation “made a mess” and could be bad for financial markets, Axios reported on Monday, citing two sources.
Markets have so far shrugged off the drama, with Wall Street notching record highs, while yields on US 10-year notes and gold prices surged before steadying slightly, and the USD fell.
^^The must-read on the topic: Trump administration probe of Fed’s Powell sparks pushback
If that wasn’t enough drama for Trump, he has also threatened credit card issuers that charge high interest rates, calling for a 10% cap, and threatened a 25% tariff on countries that “do business” with Iran. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has also said the US is “unafraid to use military force” with Iran, echoing statements made against Greenland earlier last week.
Meanwhile, other business headlines getting attention:
- Paramount Skydance has now sued Warner Bros for more information on Netflix’s takeover bid after Warner Bros’ board rejected its Gulf-backed bid last week. (Reuters)
- Apple will use Google’s Gemini for its revamped Siri in a major vote of confidence for Google in the ongoing AI race. The agreement prompted a 1% rise in Google owner Alphabet, pushing its market cap past the USD 4 tn mark. (Bloomberg)
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