Debt maturities for UAE corporates by 2030 sit at USD 136.2 bn

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Axis International files arbitration claim against Guinea over revoked mining permit

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It’s the penultimate day of 2025, and the Out of Office replies are growing in volume as the entire world (or so it seems) takes off for some end-of-year R&R.

The news cycle is sputtering towards the 2025 finish line with a handful of stories to keep us all busy this morning. UAE corporates are heading looking at some USD 136.2 bn-worth of debt that is set to mature by the end of the decade, with local banks bearing the brunt of that debt pile. Meanwhile, the Sharjah government has set its budget for the upcoming year and the Bank of Palestine is setting up shop in Abu Dhabi.

PSA — EnterpriseAM is off this coming Thursday and Friday for New Year’s. We’ll be back in your inboxes at our customary time on Monday, 5 January.

A who’s who of the “capital of capital”: The Financial Times is out with a piece detailing the history of Abu Dhabi’s growth story, from the beginning of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan’s rule in the 1960s through to the present day — and how it became the “capital of capital.” The story lays out the key figures and institutions that contributed to and now manage the emirate’s wealth story. Go read: ‘Capital of capital’: how Abu Dhabi rose as a sovereign wealth power.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

DISPUTES — UAE miner fires back in Guinea: Axis International launched a USD 28.9 bn arbitration claim against Guinea after the government revoked its bauxite mining permit, Financial Times reports. The case has been filed at the World Bank’s International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes, with Axis calling the move an “illegal revocation” after what it said were ignored settlement attempts.

What triggered it: Guinea’s military government canceled more than 50 mining licenses in May, citing breaches of the mining code as it pushes to extract more value from natural resources under President Mamadi Doumbouya.

Axis fires back with numbers: The UAE-based miner says its Boffa mine, operated since 2020, was Guinea’s second-largest exporter in 2024, shipping 18 mn tons, with a further 800 mn tons in untapped reserves. Axis says the permit was pulled “without notice [...] or discussion,” and alleges authorities seized equipment and froze bank accounts.

Why this matters: The claim adds even more pressure on UAE-linked miners in Guinea. As we previously reported, Emirates Global Aluminium has also been in talks with Guinea’s state miner to secure supply after losing its own bauxite license earlier this year — highlighting the regulatory risk facing operators in the world’s largest bauxite exporter.

Fifa’s best are coming to Dubai: Dubai will host the Fifa Best Awards ceremony next year, state news agency Wam reports, citing an announcement made by Fifa President Gianni Infantino at the World Sports Summit in Dubai. The football federation is also eyeing establishing a Fifa academy in the UAE.

Up and running on NYE in Dubai?

Gratis New Year parking, transit timing updates: Dubai will offer public parking at no cost on Thursday, 1 January, except for multi-story car parks and Al Khail Gate (N-365), Dubai Media Office reports.

Metro lines will run continuously from 5am on Wednesday, 31 December until midnight on Thursday, 1 January, the Roads and Transport Authority said. However, the Burj Khalifa and Dubai Mall metro stations are shutting early at 5pm on Wednesday, according to Time Out Dubai. Tram services will run until 6am on Wednesday until 1am on Friday, 2 January.

On the roads, several key roads will be shut in the afternoon and evening of Wednesday, 31 December, and bus routes including the E100 and E102 will also be suspended.

The big story abroad

It’s only fitting that AI remains squarely in focus in the global business press as 2025 roars to a close.

#1- SoftBank Group is doubling down on the physical backbone of artificial intelligence, agreeing to acquire US-based digital infrastructure investor DigitalBridge Group in a USD 4 bn transaction that expands the Japanese conglomerate’s exposure to data centers, fiber networks, and other AI-critical assets.

Why it matters: The acquisition comes as SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son accelerates his push to position the group as a central player in what he calls “next-generation AI infrastructure.” Investors are racing to secure the computing power, connectivity, and energy capacity underpinning the AI boom.

#2- Nvidia has quietly completed a USD 5 bn investment in Intel, throwing another financial lifeline to the once high-flying US chipmaker.

MEANWHILE- It’s another geopolitics-heavy morning with sabre rattling heard from our corner of the world to the Taiwan Strait. Here’s what you need to know:

After a meeting with Netanyahu, Trump has promised to “knock the hell” out of Iran if it rebuilds its missile or nuclear programs. “I’m not concerned about anything that Israel is doing,” he told reporters at a joint presser in Florida.
Trump sidestepped questions about what’s next for Gaza.
Protests continue in Iran, with people taking to the streets in Tehran and other major cities to denounce the high cost of living.

AND- US stocks lagged emerging markets and just about everyone else this year. Here’s the breakdown:

S&P500 — up 17.4% YTD
MSCI All Country World ex-US — up 29%
MSCI Emerging Markets — up 31.8%
EGX30 — Up 40.3%

The S&P lagged China, Japan, Germany, and the UK as even “relatively unloved” markets made a comeback, the Financial Times notes.

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UAE corporates head into heavy refinancing cycle through 2030

UAE corporates face USD 136.2 bn in debt maturities through 2030, accounting for the bulk of the country’s USD 171.8 bn maturity wall over the next five years. Of that total, USD 18.5 bn are due next year, according to Kamco Invest’s GCC Fixed Income Market Update (pdf).

Local banks are set to carry the heaviest load over the period, with USD 80.9 bn-worth of debt maturing, followed by real estate firms with USD 11.2 bn.

Anticipated rate cuts are likely to push borrowers to lock in lower rates for their refinancing needs. Kamco forecasts that GCC central banks will continue to slash rates in line with the US Fed due to pegged currencies, projecting a general 50 bps cut across the region. Specific data for the UAE suggests an expected cut of 57 bps in 2026, which would bring the rate down to 3.08% by December 2026. The UAE base rate was cut by 75 bps in 2025, ending the year at 3.65%. The report notes minimal pressure on currency pegs and expects monetary policies to remain largely stable and supportive of the region’s sizable projects market.

Local issuers tapped the primary debt market for around USD 64.9 bn in 2025, marking a 2.5% y-o-y increase from USD 63.4 bn 2024 — including USD 3.3 bn in perpetual instruments. They were also the region’s most active green debt issuers, raising USD 5.6 bn in green instruments, up 47.4% y-o-y.

Zooming out

The UAE is second only to Saudi Arabia in total maturities. The Kingdom faces USD 174.5 bn in sovereign-led maturities over the next five years, with the government accounting for USD 106.4 bn as it finances deficits spending tied to megaprojects — unlike the UAE, where rollover risk sits largely with corporates.

The GCC faces a USD 508.1 bn maturity through 2030, of which USD 85.4 bn is due next year. Refinancing demand could generate roughly USD 85.4 bn in new issuance in 2026.

Total GCC issuance came in at USD 206.6 bn in 2025 — a year marked by higher corporate participation (USD 128.6 bn) and lower government debt (USD 77.9 bn). While the region’s sukuk issuance faltered, down 19.1% y-o-y to USD 81.4 bn, the bond market hit its highest level on record, up 17.9% to USD 125.2 bn.

Financial services carry the region’s largest sector risk, with USD 210.4 bn due, representing 79.9% of all corporate maturities through 2030. Meanwhile, energy has USD 21.8 bn in maturities (8.3% of corporate total), while utilities and industrials are exposed to USD 19 bn in combined maturities.

Sharjah posts new 2026 budget at AED 44.5 bn

Sharjah gov’t approves record budget for next year: Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi approved the emirate’s 2026 general budget, setting total expenditure at a record high of AED 44.5 bn, up 3% y-o-y, state news agency Wam reports.

New year, new record: The previous budget for 2025 was set at AED 42 bn, marking a 2% increase as well as the emirate’s largest budget to date at the time.

The breakdown: Some 35% of total expenditure will go towards capital projects, while salaries and wages will see 30%, according to Wam. Operating expenses are set to receive 25%, the subsidies and aid budget is 12% of the total, and 15% will go to loan repayments and interest — down 1 percentage point from last year.

Once again, the infrastructure sector is getting the largest share of total expenditure at 35%, albeit at a 6 percentage point decrease y-o-y. The economic development sector follows at a close second with 30%, up 3 percentage points, while social development spending stands at 23% (+1 pp). Government administration, security, and safety account for the remaining 12% (+2 pp).

Where will the inflows come from? Sharjah projects a 26% increase in total public revenues in 2026. Operative revenues make up 69% of total income, while capital revenues account for 10%, up 35% y-o-y. Tax revenues are set to rise sharply, doubling compared to 2025 and representing 16% of total revenues, while customs contribute 3%. Oil and gas remain at 2%.

The wider take: In October, the UAE’s cabinet greenlit a record AED 92.4 bn budget for next year, earmarking a 29.2% y-o-y leap in expenditures as revenues are set to hold steady at AED 92.4 bn.

Dubai is building the region’s data-center economy by design, not scale

Dubai is building the region’s data-center economy by design, not brute force, JLL’s Data Center Lead Priyanka Nagpal said on Live, Work & Play in Dubai (watch, runtime: 30:00). Rather than chasing headline MWs, the emirate is prioritizing connectivity, government regulation, and infrastructure that can support cross-border data flows as AI scales and data-localization rules tighten.

Geography is the edge: Dubai’s dense web of submarine cable landing stations linking Europe, Africa, and Asia has turned it into what Nagpal called a “digital bridge,” allowing operators to serve multiple jurisdictions without sacrificing latency, and positioning Dubai as a key driver of regional growth.

PLUS- When AI rewrites the plumbing, Dubai adapts: Power-hungry workloads are pushing higher rack densities and forcing new approaches to cooling and efficiency, widening the field beyond hyperscalers, Nagpal said. Renewables are part of the emirate’s pitch, anchored by the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, now in its seve nth phase.

Background: Dubai’s design-first strategy is already translating into concrete buildout. UAE data-center capacity is forecast to jump 165% by 2028, according to previous Emirates NBD research. Recent moves we’ve covered include:

du + NextGenAI: launching an AI supercluster for sovereign and enterprise workloads;
du: an AED 2 bn hyperscale facility with Microsoft as anchor tenant;
Khazna Data Centers: 200+ MW in the pipeline under a USD 1.3 bn UAE expansion ;
G42: Stargate campus, targeting 200 MW by mid-2026 with US partners and part of a wider 5 GW US-UAE Abu Dhabi data center cluster;
Alibaba Cloud: a second Dubai data center to meet regional demand.

Bank of Palestine to roll out ADGM office with FSRA license

Bank of Palestine secures ADGM approval:

Bank of Palestine expands into Abu Dhabi: Bank of Palestine received in-principle approval from ADGM’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority for a Category 1 banking license, according to a press release. The license will allow the bank to accept deposits and arrange investment agreements from ADGM when it is up and running in 2H 2026, as it seeks to scale its reach to the Palestinian diaspora. The bank tapped Linda Tarazi (LinkedIn) as chief executive of the new ADGM-based entity, and already has a representative office in the UAE through its DIFC office.

AI startups lock in years of runway as investors brace for turbulence

AI startups are stockpiling liquidity. Global AI companies raised a record USD 150 bn in 2025, building multi-year funding cushions to brace against a possible sector downturn as investors grow wary that the boom could falter, the Financial Times reports.

The buffers aren’t evenly spread: A handful of mega-rounds — OpenAI’s USD 41 bn round, Anthropic’s USD 13 bn round, and Meta’s USD 14 bn investment into Scale AI — did most of the work, concentrating firepower among a small group of perceived outperformers, as investors look to tap into more certain ventures.

Those leaders now sit on four to five years of runway, far above historical norms, after locking in capital at peak valuations. Rather than the usual break of several years between funding rounds, AI heavyweights have only been waiting a few months recently before raising more capital — partially as a result of costly operational needs.

The playbook has shifted from scaling fast to staying above water. Investors are pushing founders to raise early and raise big, even at the cost of dilution. “When the market is providing the option, build a fortress balance sheet,” said Lucas Swisher of Coatue.

Liquidity doubles as leverage: Deep war chests let top firms outspend rivals on talent, compute, and infrastructure — and move fast on consolidation if sentiment turns. “It’ll be like an acquisition a week the minute there’s a spook in the public markets,” said Jeremy Kranz of Sentinel Global.

Why this caution makes sense: The AI boom rests on fragile plumbing, from self-reinforcing Big Tech financing loops to off-balance-sheet infrastructure funding that obscures leverage.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are having another mixed morning on the second-to-last trading day of the year. Japan’s Nikkei is slightly in the red in early trading, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is in the green, and the Shanghai Composite is essentially flat. Across the pond, it’s looking decidedly more red, with US futures suggesting the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq will all open lower later today.

ADX	10,061	+0.3% (YTD: +6.8%)
DFM	6,137	+0.1% (YTD: +18.9%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,933	+0.3% (YTD: +18.5%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.7% o/n	3.6% 1 yr
TASI	10,490	+0.7% (YTD: -12.9%)
EGX30	41,732	+0.3% (YTD: +40.3%)
S&P 500	6,906	-0.4% (YTD: +17.4%)
FTSE 100	9,867	0.0% (YTD: +20.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,752	+0.1% (YTD: +17.5%)
Brent crude	USD 61.94	+2.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.95	-0.9%
Gold	USD 4,357	+0.3%
BTC	USD 87,125	-1.3% (YTD: -6.7%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.81	+1.3% (YTD: +9.4%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.73	+0.1% (YTD: +8.4%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	14.20	+4.4% (YTD: -18.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of AED 314.1 mn. The index is up 18.9% YTD.

In the green: Al Salam Sudan (+14.9%), United Foods Company (+5.8%) and Dubai Islamic Ins. and Reins. Co. (+2.9%).

In the red: Watania International Holding (-4.8%), Islamic Arab Ins. Company (-4.0%) and Takaful Emarat (-3.2%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.3% on turnover of AED 2.6 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.3%.

CALENDAR

DECEMBER

29-30 December (Monday-Tuesday): World Sports Summit, Dubai.

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): New Year, public holiday.

1 January: Client asset regime changes in Dubai International Financial Center take effect.

1 January: Amendments to the Tax Procedures Law and the UAE VAT Law come into effect.

9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit, UAE.

11-12 January (Sunday-Monday): IRENA Assembly, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 January (Sunday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 January (Sunday-Thursday): ADSW Dialogues, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 January (Sunday-Thursday): WiSER Forum, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-15 January (Monday-Thursday): Dubai International Project Management Forum, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

12-15 January (Monday-Thursday): SteelFab, Expo Center, Sharjah.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): World Future Energy Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai Exhibition Center, Dubai.

14 January (Wednesday): Global South Utilities Forum, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

15 January (Thursday): Global Climate Finance Center Annual Meeting, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

15 January (Thursday): Green Hydrogen Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

21-24 January (Wednesday-Saturday): Acres Real Estate Exhibition, Expo Center, Sharjah.

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 January - 7 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, International Tennis Center, Zayed Sports City.

FEBRUARY

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit, Dubai.

4-6 February (Wednesday-Friday): Arab Actuarial Conference, Millennium Plaza Downtown Hotel, Dubai.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 February (Monday-Friday): World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Top Advisors and Investors Summit, Abu Dhabi.

MARCH

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March - 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

MAY

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

JUNE

15 June-15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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