Central Bank of the UAE leaves interest rates unchanged

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: CBUAE keeps rates unchanged following Fed’s move

Good morning, friends. We’re nearly at the end of what felt like a long week — and we have a nice, brisk (albeit macro-heavy) issue to get you through the final push. We have a new growth estimate for the UAE’s GDP this year from Fitch’s BMI, while the Central Bank of the UAE said GDP grew 4% last year. Plus: We have fresh data on the number of projects awarded last year (falling 9.5%) and on Dubai’s real estate boom in 2024.

BUT FIRST- The Central Bank of the UAE kept interest rates unchanged in line with the US Federal Reserve’s move in its meeting yesterday, according to a statement (pdf). The base rate applicable to the overnight deposit facility was held at 4.4%, while the interest rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity from the CBUAE was kept at 50 bps above the base rate for all standing credit facilities. We have more on the Fed’s decision in Planet Finance, below.

ALSO- The UAE dominated this year’s ranking of Mena’s 50 Best Restaurants, securing 22 spots. Dubai received the most spots of any city on the list with 19 entries, led by Orfali Bros Bistro once again at the number one spot, Trèsind Studio as runner up, and Kinoya coming in third. Abu Dhabi had three entries on the list, with Marmellata Bakery at #29, LPM at #38, and Niri at #50. You can check out the full ranking here to see if your favorite made the list.

☁️WEATHER- Possibly rainy day ahead: The National Center of Meteorology forecasts (pdf) partly cloudy conditions, with a chance of light rainfall in northern and eastern areas. Temperatures today will hit 24°C in Dubai, with an overnight low of 19°C, and 22°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to an overnight low of 19°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Dubai’s RTA launches tender to develop e-bikes’ battery charging and swapping stations: Investors can now enroll in a tender launched by Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) for the construction of battery charging and swapping stations for electric bikes operating in the delivery sector, the authority said in a statement. The move aims to incentivize delivery companies to add more e-bikes to their fleets. Dubai currently has over 40k e-bikes in operation.

ICYMI- Both Flyby and Enoc partnered with Drive Terra last month to set up battery-swapping stations for e-bikes and e-scooters.

#2- Some 62 hotels (16.7k rooms) are currently under construction in the UAE, Khaleej Times reports, citing data from US-based real estate analytics company CoStar. Meanwhile, 38 hotels (9k rooms) are in the planning phase, with an additional seven hotels (1.3k rooms) in final planning, CoStar said. In 2024, the country added 25 new hotels with 4.9k rooms.

IN CONTEXT- The rise in hospitality developments comes as the country aims to raise the tourism sector's contribution to the GDP to AED 450 bn and attract 40 mn guests to its hotels under the National Tourism Strategy 2031.

#3- Mubadala-owned Spanish oil player Moeve is moving ahead with its flagship green hydrogen project, after Spain opted not to extend an energy windfall tax that had stalled investments, CEO Maarten Wetselaar told Reuters. The company, formerly known as Cepsa, plans to invest up to EUR 8 bn in low-carbon energy, with its first 400 MW hydrogen plant in Huelva set for completion by 2027 and a 2 GW target for 2030. Wetselaar called the tax decision a “responsible” move that will encourage industry investment.

Moeve likes Europe for investment: “We continue to see the south of Spain as the best place in Europe to make green hydrogen,” Wetselaar added, citing strong demand from Europe as it moves away from Russian energy imports. The region has a broader target to produce 10 mn metric tons of renewable hydrogen by 2030.

DATA POINT-

The GCC’s total trade volume is projected to reach USD 2.3 tn by 2033, growing at an average annual rate of 5.5%, Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates, according to a press release. Meanwhile, the bloc’s non-oil trade is expected to expand at 3.5% annually, backed by strong economic diversification efforts, the US consulting firm added.

China + Japan main forces behind GCC trade growth: BCG pegs China as the biggest trading partner at an estimated USD 88 bn, a 5.7% CAGR, right above Japan at an estimated USD 46 bn (9.4% CAGR). The GCC is also well-positioned to capitalize on the rising influence of the Global South as trade between developing nations is projected to grow by USD 673 bn by 2033, the group said.

What more can the GCC do to build trade resilience? BCG urged GCC businesses to diversify supply chain sources, enhance geopolitical capabilities, and expand into high-growth markets like India and China.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Arab Health — which has rebranded to World Health Expo — is on its fourth and final day at the Dubai World Trade Center. The annual healthcare exhibit gathers over 3.8k companies, with the goal of showcasing the latest tech solutions to challenges in the healthcare sector.

#2- Jewelsof Emirates Show is running at Expo Center Sharjah until Sunday. The annual jewelry exhibition features 160 exhibitors and over 500 brands, showcasing diamonds, gold, silver, pearls, and luxury watches from local and international designers. Collections come from countries like UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Italy, Thailand.

#3- The ShipTek International Conference wraps up in Dubai today after kicking off yesterday. The two-day event brings together industry heavyweights—including Hapag-Lloyd MD Carolin Stumm, Adani Ports CEO Nicolai Friis, and others—to talk maritime tech and industry developments.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

AI is on everyone’s minds this morning after Meta and Microsoft reported their earnings for 2024, and as the DeepSeek craze continues.

#1- Meta’s shares rebounded on CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s comments that Meta AI will become the most widely used AI in the industry this year, despite the company giving a disappointing sales forecast that had weighed on the stock earlier. The question now is again whether the company’s AI investments will pay off — especially after Chinese AI startup DeepSeek proved it is possible to create an AI model with a fraction of the cost. (Bloomberg | CNBC)

Speaking of DeepSeek, OpenAI said it has found evidence that the Chinese AI startup used its proprietary models to train its own large-language model, according to the Financial Times. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is looking at ways to further curb chip exports from Nvidia to China, Bloomberg reports.

#2- Microsoft’s shares tumbled 5% in afterhours trading after the tech giant reported slower growth than expected for its cloud business, despite the company beating revenue estimates. (Wall Street Journal | Barron’s)

In other earnings news, Tesla’s shares also rebounded on an optimistic forecast for growth in 2025, despite missing estimates for the fourth quarter of 2024. (Bloomberg | CNN)

OVER IN THE US, the White House revoked its freeze of federal aid due to legal challenges, though the administration still plans to cut spending to programs opposed by Trump. (Reuters)

AND IN SYRIA- The Syrian rebel group that ousted Bashar al Assad named its leader Ahmed Al Sharaa as the country’s new president for a transitional period, after the group dissolved the parliament, the military, and constitution. (Bloomberg | New York Times | AP)

ALSO- Former US Senator Bob Menendez was sentenced to 11 years in prison after being found guilty in a corruption case that saw him act as a foreign agent for Egypt. (FT)

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE-Kuwait Week will take place between 3-4 February in Dubai, featuring investment conferences, panel discussions on economic development, and B2B meetings. Attendees will explore opportunities for collaboration in emerging industries, Wam reports.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Fitch’s BMI revises UAE growth forecast down slightly for 2025, remains optimistic for 2026

Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI has revised its forecast for the UAE’s economy this year to 5.1%, slightly down from 5.2% predicted in October, BMI economists said during a webinar. The oil economy, which accounts for about 25% of GDP, is set to benefit from the gradual unwinding of Opec+’s supply cuts starting April 2025, they explained, adding that oil production is expected to grow at a 4% clip this year, after seeing relatively flat growth in 2024.

“The UAE economy will be the fastest among the GCC economies,” BMI’s MENA Senior Country Risk Analyst Mariette Hanna said. BMI sees oil GDP growing at a 3.1% clip this year, while the non-oil sector is expected to grow further on the back of easing inflationary pressures, especially in the transportation sector, lower borrowing costs, and large infrastructure and construction projects across all emirates.

Ongoing progress in diversification, coupled with high-income population growth, will boost foreign investment in sectors such as real estate, finance and technology, Hanna added.

“Non-oil trade will continue to benefit from the signing of the comprehensive economic partnership agreements,” Hanna said, adding that recent data showed that non-oil trade expanded by 15% y-o-y in value and 6.5% y-o-y in volume in the first nine months of 2024.

BMI expects lower oil prices due to the growth in production to affect oil exports and revenues, which will narrow the UAE’s fiscal surplus from 3.7% of GDP in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025. It also sees the current account surplus narrowing from 8.1% of GDP in 2024 to 7.2% of GDP in 2025.

BMI’s forecast for this year is more optimistic than others’: The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank revised their forecasts for the UAE’s economy this year to 4%. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) penciled in a higher growth estimate of 4.5% in 2025 in December.

It’s even more optimistic about 2026, penciling in a higher estimate of 6% GDP growth, with its oil and gas team predicting 10% growth in oil production in the Gulf state next year once Opec+ supply cuts are lifted.

CBUAE says GDP grew 4% last year

The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) said the country’s GDP grew 4% to AED 2 tn in 2024, on the back of strong performances across “all economic sectors,” state news agency Wam reports. Sectors that witnessed notable growth include the financial, banking, and ins. sectors.

The growth estimate matches its original forecast, and exceeds others’ expectations: The CBUAE had maintained its growth outlook for 2024 at 4% in December and September. The cabinet also projected the country’s GDP to have surpassed AED 1.7 tn in 2024. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) also saw the overall GDP growing at 4%, while the World Ban had forecast growth of 3.3%.

The banking and ins. sectors flourished last year: The UAE banking sector grew its total assets by 8.6% y-o-y to reach AED 4.5 tn in November 2024 with the net non-performing loan ratio decreasing to 2.1% in 2024 compared to 2.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, the ins. sector’s gross written premiums rose by 21% y-o-y to AED 64.5 bn in 2024.

The central bank reached “record financial results” in 2024 across “all indicators.” Its total assets are expected to rise by 24.3% y-o-y to reach about AED 896 bn due to the rise in net inflows to the country’s economy.

REMEMBER- The CBUAE expects growth in 2025 to come in at 4.5%, while the IMF projects it to stay at 4%, and the World Bank predicts a slightly higher rate at 4.1%. Other financial institutions are optimistic as well, with Moody’s expecting growth to come in at 4.8% and Emirates NBD seeing it at 5%.

UAE saw projects decline 9.5% last year

The UAE was a major player in the GCC projects market in 2024, securing USD 84.1 bn in awarded contracts, despite a 9.5% y-o-y decline, according to Kamco Invest’s January 2025 GCC Projects Market Update (pdf). The country increased its share of total GCC project awards to 37.3%, up from 26.2% in 2023, driven by key infrastructure and energy investments.

The UAE saw two of the largest project awards in the GCC last year: the U SD 5.6 bn Dubai Metro Blue Line and the USD 5.5 bn Ruwais Low Carbon LNG Terminal. Other major projects included the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s USD 2.4 bn West to East Pipeline and the second phase of Adnoc Offshore’s Umm Shaif Field’s long-term development plan.

Leading the growth: The UAE’s oil sector surged by 179.4% y-o-y to USD 14.2 bn, the highest absolute growth in any sector, despite an overall dip in project awards. Meanwhile, the chemical sector saw the steepest decline in projects, plummeting 81.7% y-o-y to USD 958 mn. The transport sector also saw a 133.5% jump to USD 11.7 bn, while gas projects declined 54.7% y-o-y to USD 8.8 bn

The construction sector remained the largest, accounting for 47.5% of total awarded contracts (USD 40 bn), though slightly down from USD 44.4 bn in 2023.

HOW THE REGION FARED-

Total GCC project awards climbed 9.6% y-o-y to USD 273.2 bn, the report said. Saudi Arabia led at USD 146.8 bn — over half the region’s total — with the Kingdom’s NEOM Trojena Valley Cluster Dam (USD 4.7 bn) among the largest contracts. Kuwait saw the highest percentage growth in awarded contracts, rising 50.7% y-o-y to USD 9.5 bn.

Looking ahead, 2025 is set to be another strong year, with USD 120 bn worth of projects already in the bid evaluation stage, primarily in Saudi Arabia. The total GCC project pipeline stands at USD 1.5 tn, with Saudi Arabia (USD 770.5 bn) and the UAE (USD 322.5 bn) leading the pack with key upcoming projects, including the second phase of the USD 5 bn Taziz Industrial Chemicals Zone II and the USD 3.7 bn National Grid Battery Energy Storage System.

Government-backed infrastructure spending and strong private-sector participation are expected to keep the GCC projects market robust, amid global economic uncertainties.

Diving deeper into Dubai’s property boom in 2024

More data on Dubai’s property boom in 2024: Dubai’s real estate market saw strong investor activity in 2024, with a 47% y-o-y rise in residential transactions, driving capital value growth, according to the Savills Dubai Residential Market report (pdf). Dubai ranked among the top five in the Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index, with property values rising 2.9% in the first half of 2024. Per-square-foot prices increased 3% for apartments and 8% for villas.

Off-plan sales dominated 68% of total transactions, up from 55% in 2023. Zone 6, covering Jumeirah Village Circle, Damac Hills 2, Al Barari, and Dubai Hills Estate, accounted for 51% of transactions. Business Bay, Jumeirah Lakes Towers, and Dubai Marina also recorded high volumes.

The ready market had a slower year, accounting for 32% of transactions, down from 45% in 2023, as affordability constraints and higher interest rates impacted accessibility. Meanwhile, transactions above AED 5 mn made up 8% of the market.

Apartments were still the most popular: Apartments led sales, accounting for 82% of total transactions, with off-plan sales increasing to 68%. High-demand areas included Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay, Dubai Marina, and Meydan One. Villa transactions rose to 18% of the market, with off-plan villa sales increasing to 68% from 45% in 2023. Developers introduced 50k new units, a 25% rise from 2023, while 25k units were completed.

The prime housing segment saw 4.6k transactions priced at above AED 10 mn, marking a 23% y-o-y increase. Luxury villa transactions grew 33%, while high-end apartment transactions rose 5%. Palm Jumeirah, La Mer, and Bluewaters Island commanded the highest per-square-foot rates. Rental rates climbed, with apartments up 16% and villas/townhouses rising 13%. Emerging locations like Al Furjan saw rental spikes of up to 26% due to commercial developments in Dubai South and Expo City.

Looking ahead to 2025, Dubai’s real estate market is expected to maintain growth, driven by investor confidence, off-plan demand, and interest in luxury properties. Market conditions suggest continued opportunities for both end-users and investors as the sector evolves.

ICYMI: Dubai’s real estate sector hit a record AED 761 bn across 226k transactions in 2024, up 36% in volume and 20% in value y-o-y. The sector saw 2.78 mn procedures, a 17% increase, with investments reaching AED 526 bn.

Amea Power to develop a USD 350 mn battery storage project in Egypt

UAE-based Amea Power will develop a USD 350 mn standalone 1.5 GWh battery storage project in Egypt, CTO Mahabir Sharma told The National on Tuesday. The renewables firm inked an initial power purchase agreement with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company, with a binding agreement expected in “one or two weeks.” The project is slated for completion by March 2027.

What we know: The standalone battery energy storage system (Bess) will be split between two locations with 1 GWh installed at Benban, Africa’s largest solar park, and 500 MWh in the Red Sea town of Zafarana, Sharma told the National. Amea is also open to partnering on the Bess project. “Initially, we will be handling it on our own, but we are always looking for a good partner to do the project,” Sharma added.

SOUND SMART- A stand-alone Bess operates independently of any single power plant or specific power generation sources, storing electricity from the grid and discharging when needed. This contrasts with an integrated Bess, which is directly linked to a specific renewable energy source — typically solar or wind farms — storing only the power it generates.

Amea is eyeing potential stake sale: Amea is currently in discussions with a “select group of investors” to sell a stake in the company, Sharma said. He did not disclose the expected size of the transaction, though he said the company is in the due diligence phase, noting that Amea would remain the majority owner.

What about green hydrogen? The company is advancing plans for a 1 GW green hydrogen project announced in 2022 — previously reported to have a capacity of 500 MW — with feasibility studies underway and negotiations ongoing with potential offtakers, primarily in Europe due to lower logistical costs, Sharma explained.

Earnings season heats up

Earnings season is heating up with full-year earnings from Emirates NBD, Commercial Bank of Dubai, Sharjah Islamic Bank, the National Bank of Fujairah, and Al Seer Marine.

EMIRATES NBD-

Dubai’s Emirates NBD reported a net income of AED 23 bn in 2024, marking a 6.9% y-o-y increase compared to 2023, according to the banking group’s financials (pdf). The lender’s total operating income rose by 2.6% y-o-y to AED 44.1 bn during the year.

This annual financial performance was attributed to strong loan growth and a “stable and low-cost funding mix,” according to its earnings release (pdf). Loan growth amounted to 10% last year with a 30% increase in retail lending, while the deposit mix rose by AED 82 bn in 2024, including an AED 48 bn boost in current and savings accounts.

Market reax: The bank’s shares fell 7.5% to reach its lowest level in five years on flat net income growth in 4Q 2024, which came in at AED 4 bn, Reuters reports.

Dividends: Emirates NBD proposed a dividend payout of 100 fils, down from 120 fils last year.

Meanwhile, its Emirates Islamic unit delivered a record net income of AED 2.8 bn last year, marking a 32.5% y-o-y increase compared to 2023, according to its financials (pdf). The franchise’s total operating income rose by 13% y-o-y to AED 5.4 bn in the same period. This performance was attributed to a “positive trend in both funded and non-funded income,” according to its earnings release (pdf).

NATIONAL BANK OF FUJAIRAH-

The National Bank of Fujairah (NBF) reported a 17.2% y-o-y increase in net income to AED 850.1 mn in 2024, according to its financial statements (pdf). The boost came from cost management and improved impairment positions as the bank braces for lower interest rates, it said in its earnings release (pdf). The bank also achieved record-breaking operating revenues of AED 2.4 bn, up 6.7% y-o-y.

The breakdown: The lender’s net interest income and income from Islamic financing rose to AED 1.8 bn in the year, up 4.8% y-o-y. Meanwhile, net fees, commission, and other income rose 8.4% y-o-y to AED 452.7 mn.

Dividends: The board suggested a dividend distribution equivalent to 15% of the paid-up capital — the same as 2023.

COMMERCIAL BANK OF DUBAI-

Commercial Bank of Dubai’s (CBD) net income after tax rose 2.6% y-o-y to AED 799 mn in 4Q 2024, according to the lender’s earnings release (pdf). The bank’s total income fell 8.8% y-o-y to AED 1.3 bn during the quarter, while net interest income increased by 0.7% y-o-y to AED 950 mn.

CBD’s bottom line grew 14.3% in 2024: The lender’s net income surged 14.3% y-o-y in 2024 to a record AED 3 bn, “on the back of strong loan growth with higher revenues at outstanding returns and with significantly improved asset quality,” CBD CEO Bernd van Linder said. The bank saw its total income climb 11.2% y-o-y to AED 5.5 bn, supported by higher net interest income of AED 3.8 bn, up 6.4% y-o-y, and improved fee and commission income.

Assets and deposits: The bank’s assets increased 8.7% y-o-y to AED 140.2 bn, while net loans and advances hit AED 93.0 bn, marking a growth of 11.7% y-o-y. Customer deposits also grew 10.5% y-o-y to AED 97.6 bn in 2024.

AL SEER MARINE-

Maritime player Al Seer Marine widened its net losses in 2024 to AED 1.5 bn, compared to a net loss of AED 1 bn in 2023, according to its financials (pdf). The company’s revenue rose by 4% to AED 1.3 bn during the year.

The performance was attributed to the company’s efforts for “diversification across key sectors,” including kicking off operations for new tankers, higher demand for yacht management services, and new maintenance and technical support contracts, according to the company’s earnings release (pdf). Meanwhile, the reported loss was influenced by a decline in the fair value of shares in ADX-listed companies due to market fluctuations.

SHARJAH ISLAMIC BANK-

Sharjah Islamic Bank saw its net income rise 24.5% y-o-y to AED 1 bn in 2024, according to the company's financials (pdf). The lender reported a 10.4% y-o-y increase in its total operating income to AED 2.2 bn.

AWR Automotive taps Tom Fux as new CEO

Tom Fux replaces Michel Ayat as AWR Automotive CEO: Homegrown family business group AW Rostamani appointed Tom Fux (LinkedIn) as the new CEO of its automotive division, succeeding Michel Ayat, who stepped down after 34 years, it said in a press release. Ayat will remain with the group as a board advisor. Fux brings over 25 years of experience across 53 countries, including leadership roles like managing director at Toyota Adria, president of Toyota Germany, and CEO of KINTO Europe.

Alpha Dhabi Holding ups its National Corporation for Tourism and Hotels stake to 73.73%

M&A-

#1- We now know the size of Alpha Dhabi’s stake in NCTH: Alpha Dhabi Holding upped its stake in National Corporation for Tourism and Hotels (NCTH) to 73.73%, according to a regulatory filing (pdf) to the exchange. Both companies are ADX-listed.

ICYMI- NCTH raised its capital to AED 2.2 bn, up from AED 899 mn, through the issuance of 1.3 bn new shares last week, all allocated to Alpha Dhabi Hospitality Holding, a subsidiary of Alpha Dhabi.

The transaction saw Alpha Dhabi transfer four premium hotel assets to NCTH including the St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, luxury collection desert resort Al Wathba, and ultra-luxury Cheval Blanc Randheli in the Maldives along with Cheval Blanc Seychelles, consolidating its hotel business under NCTH. This boosts NCTH’s portfolio to eight hotels with 1.5k keys.

#2- Tadawul-listed Fakeeh Care Group’s subsidiary Fakeeh Health acquired 100% of MediCentres, a Dubai-based primary care clinic network, from Everest Health Investments for an undisclosed sum, according to a press release. Medicenters is now Fakeeh Medicentres.

MediCentres operates clinics in Motor City, Jumeirah Park, Al Furjan and Dubai Silicon Oasis and Dubai Mall. The network of clinics offers comprehensive medical and dental services including pediatrics, physiotherapy, dermatology, among other fields, according to its webpage.

ICYMI- Fakeeh Care took a 21.5% stake to market in June 2024 through an offering of both new and existing shares. The IPO was priced top of the range, giving the family business a market cap of 13.3 bn at listing. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) was a key buyer in the IPO with a cornerstone investment of 1.04 mn shares.

INVESTMENTS-

Dubai welcomes new Sub-Sahara-focused lender: Standard Chartered’s ventures arm SC Ventures and Dutch digital lending platform Yabx signed USD 10 mn shareholder and collaboration agreements to launch Sub-Saharan Africa-focused lender Furaha in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC), SC Ventures said in a statement. The investment saw SC Ventures funnel USD 7 mn into the company, while Yabx contributed USD 3 mn in technology transfer. Uganda was the first market where Furaha started offering its services.

CAPITAL MARKETS-

#1- Dubai-based trading platform Equiti introduced contract for difference (CFD) options for Mena stocks listed on the ADX and DFM, according to a press release. The move will allow investors to speculate on future market prices.

Not the only company to start rolling out CFDs: Cyprus-based broker Scope Markets launched the first CFD products for trading in DFM and ADX indices in October. A month later, UK-based Plus500 launched the Dubai Index CFD to track the performance of key sectors in the emirate’s economy.

#2- DFM-listed BHM Capital Financial Services joined the Bahrain Bourse (BHB) as an external market maker, according to a press release. BHM Capital’s membership at BHB aims to support the financial market’s infrastructure, boost liquidity levels, attract regional and global investors, and integrate BHB with other GCC markets.

REMEMBER- BHM Capital has also been eyeing entering the Egyptian market through a JV, with the company’s CEO saying in June that it is in advanced talks with multiple parties.

HEALTHCARE-

State-owned health-tech firm M42 will support Uzbekistan’s Genome Program under a partnership with the country’s Health Ministry, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. The partnership will see the manufacturing of screening and diagnostics tools locally and regionally to support early detection and prevention initiatives of genetic diseases.

AVIATION-

dnata renews catering agreement for Jordan’s JV: Homegrown air services provider dnata will continue to be in charge of the operations of Jordan Flight Catering Company — a JV between dnata, Jordan’s flag carrier Royal Jordanian, and Eastern Aviation Investments — after renewing its partnership with Royal Jordanian, according to a press release. The pair also renewed a 10-year agreement to provide inflight caterer’s service for the airline.

The agreement came on the same day Royal Jordanian upped its stake in the JV to 51%. Dnata currently owns a 25% stake in Jordan Flight Catering Company.

Fed holds rates steady, keeping tabs on Trump and inflation

The US Federal Reserve unanimously kept interest rates steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, it said in a statement yesterday, as they assess the impact of Trump’s economic policies on inflation and growth. The decision ends the Fed’s cutting spree, which brought rates down a full percentage point last year, including a 50 bps cut in September, followed by 25 bps reductions in November and December.

A predictable outcome: The decision was one of the “most predictable no change” moves in recent years, Bloomberg reports, citing DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach. A Reuters poll of economists echoed the same sentiment earlier this month as better-than-expected data for inflation and the jobs market signalled the economy does not need further stimulus.

Bracing for the Trump effect: While holding off on a rate cut for now, the Fed remains flexible as it evaluates the impact of the anticipated tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, the Associated Press reported. Policymakers are wary, recalling that past tariffs slowed growth more than they raised prices. Analysts also warn that widespread tariffs and mass deportations could fuel inflation, which stubbornly remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

Trump is not happy: US President Donald Trump took to social media to lash against the Fed’s presumed failure in stopping “the problem they created with Inflation”. The newly-inaugurated president vowed to take matters into his own hands. “I will do it by unleashing American Energy production, slashing Regulation, rebalancing International Trade, and reigniting American Manufacturing,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social. Trump has been pushing for lower rates for a while now, claiming he should have a say in Fed policy. “I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” he said earlier at Davos.

Fewer cuts this year? Analysts suggest we are in for a slower pace of reductions as the rates hover near the neutral zone, where monetary policy neither stimulates nor restricts growth. Meanwhile, Powell signalled repeatedly in the press conference that the Fed intends to wait for the Trump administration’s policies to be articulated and implemented, before assessing their implications and deciding on the next step. “Chair Powell very clearly indicated that the first phase of rate calibration is behind us. They’re in no hurry to move into the next phase,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, told Bloomberg.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are broadly in the green in early trading this morning, although a handful of them — including Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and China — are closed for the Lunar New Year. Japan’s Nikkei is up around 0.2% so far.

Over on Wall Street, futures indicate the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq will all open in the green despite all three indexes closing down at the end of yesterday’s trading.

ADX	9,569	+0.2% (YTD: +1.6%)
DFM	5,129	-0.9% (YTD: -0.6%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,318	-0.2% (YTD: +3.7%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.2% o/n	4.4% 1 yr
TASI	12,439	+0.2% (YTD: +3.4%)
EGX30	29,892	+0.8% (YTD: +0.5%)
S&P 500	6,039	-0.5% (YTD: +2.7%)
FTSE 100	8,558	+0.3% (YTD: +4.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,231	+0.7% (YTD: +6.8%)
Brent crude	USD 76.58	-1.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.54	+1.8%
Gold	USD 2,796.90	+0.1%
BTC	USD 103,780.80	+3.4% (YTD: +10.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.9% yesterday on turnover of AED 772.0 mn. The index is down 0.6% YTD.

In the green: Emirates Islamic Bank (+14.9%), Dubai Islamic Bank (+2.2%) and Al Salam Bank (+2.1%).

In the red: Emirates NBD (-9.3%), National General Insurance Company (-8.0%) and Al Salam Sudan (-6.6%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.2% on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai fell 0.2%.

UAE, Hungary ink agreements in education, investment, clean energy, and defense

President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during his official visit to the UAE, where the two leaders discussed strengthening bilateral cooperation across the economic, trade, investment, infrastructure, and renewable energy sectors, Wam reports.

The meeting saw the inking of several MoUs and agreements in education, investment, and clean energy development. Talks also focused on fostering sustainable development and advancing shared economic interests.

ALSO- The two countries agreed to boost defense collaboration, courtesy of Edge: UAE state-owned defense conglomerate Edge Group and the Hungarian Defense Ministry signed a letter of intent yesterday to ramp up defense innovation, research, and development, according to a statement. The agreement follows discussions on expanding bilateral cooperation in defense, technology, and innovation, and lays the groundwork for future defense contracts, including the supply of Caracal sniper rifles to the Hungarian Defense Forces. This marks the first time Edge will deliver systems to a NATO member state.

Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum received an official invitation to visit India in April from India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, during their meeting yesterday, Wam reports. The discussions focused on expanding bilateral cooperation across sectors of mutual interest, and leveraging the two countries’ trade and economic partnership to further boost trade and investment between the two countries.

CALENDAR

JANUARY

27-30 January (Monday-Thursday): Arab Health Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

29 January-2 February (Wednesday-Sunday): Jewels of Emirates, Expo Centre Sharjah.

29-30 January (Wednesday-Thursday): Shiptek, JW Marriott Hotel Marina, Dubai.

FEBRUARY

29 January-2 February (Wednesday-Sunday): Jewels of Emirates, Expo Centre Sharjah.

1-6 February (Saturday-Thursday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

1-8 February (Saturday-Saturday): The Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Zayed Sports City's International Tennis Centre.

2-3 February (Sunday-Monday): L’Etape Dubai cycling race, Dubai.

3-4 February (Monday-Tuesday): The UAE-Kuwait Week, Dubai.

3-6 February (Monday-Thursday): Medlab Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

4-6 February (Tuesday-Thursday): AEEDC Dubai 2025, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7 February-29 April (Friday-Tuesday): The Abu Dhabi Festival, Abu Dhabi.

8-20 February (Saturday-Thursday): Dubai Games 2025, Dubai.

10-11 February (Monday-Tuesday) MRO Middle East and Aircraft Interiors Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

10-11 February (Monday-Tuesday): BreakBulk Middle East, the Dubai World Trade Center.

10-12 February (Monday-Wednesday): Japan Kyoto Trade Exhibition, Dubai Word Trade Center.

14 February (Friday): The deadline for the consultation period for the Securities and Commodities Authority's draft regulation on security tokens and commodity tokens.

16 February-1 March (Sunday-Saturday): Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Championships, Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Stadium in Al Garhoud.

16 February (Sunday): The International Defence Conference,The Emirates Palace, Abu Dhabi.

17-21 February (Monday-Friday): International Defence Exhibition (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

17-21 February (Monday-Friday): Naval Defence Exhibition (NAVDEX) in Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

17-22 February (Monday-Saturday): Gulfood, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-21 February (Wednesday-Friday): International Dialogue of Civilizations & Tolerance Conference, Abu Dhabi Energy Centre.

24-25 February (Monday-Tuesday): World Passenger Experience Forum, Dubai.

24-26 February (Monday-Wednesday): Connecting Hydrogen MENA, Dubai.

28-29 February (Friday-Saturday): Investopia 2024, the St. Regis, Abu Dhabi.

28 February-29 March (Friday-Saturday): Ramadan.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1Q 2025:

The first eight fronds of the Palm Jebel Ali will be site-ready, allowing for the commencement of villa infrastructure and civil works.

MARCH

18-19 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

31 March-2 April (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Fitr, national holiday.

APRIL

1 April (Tuesday): New ADGM employment regulations come into effect.

1 April (Tuesday): New personal status law comes into effect.

6-11 April (Sunday-Friday): Geo-Spatial Week, Dubai.

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Investment Summit, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): World Local Production Forum's 3rd edition, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Dubai Woodshow’s 21st Edition, Dubai World Trade Center

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): IPS congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

14-26 April (Monday-Saturday): Solana Economic Zone, Dubai.

15-17 April (Tuesday-Thursday): The Abu Dhabi Global Health Week, Adnec center, Abu Dhabi.

16-18 April (Wednesday-Friday): World Future Energy Summit,Abu Dhabi National Exhibition, Abu Dhabi.

21-25 April (Monday-Friday): The Dubai AI Week, Museum of the Future and Area 2071, Emirates Towers, Dubai.

22-24 April (Tuesday-Thursday): DOMOTEX Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

25 April-11 May (Friday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai World Trade Center.

28 April-1 May (Monday-Thursday): The Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center

28 April-2 May (Monday-Friday): The 64th Annual Conference of the International Federation of Ait Traffic Controllers’ Associations (IFATCA)

Signposted to happen sometime in April:

Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League, Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi

MAY

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Ports Forum, Dubai.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

13-16 May (Tuesday-Friday): International Union for Health Promotion and Education Conference, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Cabsat Middle East and Satellite Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

15 May (Thursday): The Economy Middle East Summit, ADGM, Abu Dhabi.

16-18 May (Friday-Sunday): GISEC, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-22 May (Monday-Thursday): Make it in the Emirates, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

20-22 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East 2025, Dubai World Trade Center.

23-25 May (Friday-Sunday): EuroLeague Final Four, Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi.

26-28 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arab Media Summit, World Trade Center, Dubai.

30 May (Friday): Arafat Day.

31 May-2 June (Saturday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

Signposted to happen sometime in May:

Asean and GCC summit, Malaysia.

JUNE

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Middle East Rail, Dubai World Trade Center.

27 June (Friday): Islamic New Year.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

JULY

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): DigiHealth exhibition, World Trade Center, Dubai.

16-17 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mohammed Bin Rashid Leadership Forum, Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development, Dubai.

OCTOBER

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

17-19 October (Friday-Sunday): The International Real Estate and Investment Show, Abu Dhabi.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)
The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Global Implementation Support Symposium, Abu Dhabi.
Universal Postal Congress 2025, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in the fall of 2025:

2025 Games of the Future, Dubai.
ICOM General Conference 2025, Dubai

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference 2026, UAE
9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit’s fourth edition, UAE

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