Good morning, friends. Happy hump day, and a very merry Christmas Eve. Today’s issue is somewhat of a mixed bag, with the big story being the Central Bank of the UAE’s updates to the country’s GDP forecast for the year and for next year — with a slightly more positive outlook for this year, and a marginally lower one for 2026.
Our friends at Mashreq have also broken the silence across regional debt markets in recent weeks with a USD 2 bn syndicated loan, its first in 11 years.
AND- We sat down with Baker McKenzie Partner Hani Naja to break down how the recent amendments to the Commercial Companies Law could impact investors and businesses in the UAE — and when he sees real change happening to how companies and transactions are governed. Let’s dive in.
PSA
WEATHER- It’s another sunny winter morning (if we can call it that), with a high of 24°C and a low of 16°C in Dubai, while in Abu Dhabi, the mercury rises to 23°C with a low of 15°C.
Watch this space
EVs — Have you been looking to buy a Tesla? It might be a good time if you’ve been one of those people quietly appreciating the videos of cars self-parking in mall garages while you struggle to reverse park. Tesla CEO Elon Musk hinted that the automotive firm’s full self-driving system could launch in the UAE next month in a response to a question on X, days after he was in the UAE meeting UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
The system can control braking, steering, and parking, though it’s not fully autonomous — a driver still has to be behind the steering wheel to supervise.
The good news? You wouldn’t need to buy a new Tesla to get the system installed. The features come from an over-the-air software update that you can subscribe to, so long as your Tesla vehicle has 3.0 hardware or higher.
It comes as the UAE makes headway on its autonomous mobility ambitions, with Abu Dhabi rolling out licensed Level-4 robotaxis on Yas Island and preparing to expand across core districts. Mercedes-Benz and Momenta also plan to supply autonomous S-Class vehicles to Lumo Mobility starting January, while Dubai is piloting autonomous deliveries through Yango and noon.
CRYPTO — Another stablecoin makes it into ADGM’s approved tokens list: The ADGM has recognized Tether’s USDT on Tron — a high-throughput, low-cost blockchain widely used for stablecoin transfers — as an accepted fiat-referenced token, according to a press release. The move clears Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA)-licensed firms to use USDT on Tron in regulated activity.
Zoom out: ADGM has been building out its accepted fiat-referenced token list, including Paxos Lift USD, USDC, USDP, and USDT. The FSRA also rolled out — and is now expanding — a dedicated framework for stablecoins as payment instruments.
ECONOMY — The GCC’s real GDP is projected to expand by 4.4% in 2026, up from a projected 4% projected this year, buoyed by the non-oil sector, which now accounts for nearly 73.2% of the region’s total GDP, according to an Oxford Economics report picked up by Zawya. The figure for this year beat Oxford Economic’s expectations as an increase in oil production gave regional economies a boost, alongside momentum in the non-oil sector.
The region’s diversification strategies — from Saudi Arabia to Qatar and the UAE — are showing signs of maturing, making the regional economy more resistant to fluctuations in global crude prices.
Consumers in the region as well are said to be top performers, supported by lower unemployment rates and low inflation rates. Oxford Economics expects the inflation rate in the region to average 1.7% this year before rising to 2% in 2026.
Data point
USD 12.7 bn — the value of private equity and venture capital investments poured into the Middle East by the end of November, according to a report by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The figure beats the full-year total for 2024 by 46%.
Behind the figure: The Gulf’s economic diversification plans to move away from oil have pooled in ample funds from sovereign wealth funds and international private players alike. The region’s largest recorded investment this year was credited to Abu Dhabi with Emirates Global Aluminium’s USD 1.9 bn sale of its Al Taweelah power and water generation assets to Dubal Holding.
By the sector: The tech, media, and telecommunications sector saw the highest number of transactions, accounting for five of the top 10 transactions, S&P Global said.
It hasn’t been a good year for PE fundraising. Data shows that the aggregate fund size for PE players in the region has fallen to USD 2.9 bn, down from nearly USD 4 bn last year. VC fundraising, however, was up 58.7% by the end of November to USD 2.2 bn.
The big story abroad
It’s a quiet Christmas Eve morning in the global business press and there are few signs that will radically change as the day wears on: Asian stocks are trading sideways on thin volumes and many Western will close early today before taking tomorrow off entirely.
The US economy grew at a brisk 4.3% clip in the third quarter of the year, backed by consumer spending on healthcare and computing. That’s well ahead of the 3.2% pace at which analysts polled by Bloomberg expected the economy to expand. Investment by businesses slowed and exports fell in the same period.
Oil-price watchers, take note: The US has moved special operations forces into the Caribbean, ratcheting up pressure on Venezuela’s government. Washington is already enforcing a blockade of oil tankers moving into and out of the Latin American country.
CLOSER TO HOME- The Libyan Army’s chief of staff died in a plane crash yesterday evening after flying out of Ankara, where he and three other senior military officers were meeting with Turkish officials. The jet carrying the military leaders asked for permission to make an emergency landing shortly before the crash. There’s been no word on the cause of the incident.
Morning must-read
Longtime readers may remember we’ve frequently suggested in the past that women aren’t truly grownups until sometime around age 28 — and that for guys, it’s age 30 or later? That your prefrontal cortex isn’t fully “baked” until your mid-30s? We might have been onto something: New research suggests the brain’s “adolescent” phase runs from about age 9 through 32 — and that your noggin is then pretty stable until age 66, when early aging begins.
Go read: Your brain ages in five distinct stages in the Wall Street Journal or catch abreakdown from Cambridge University, where the research originated, if you’re not a Journal subscriber.
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