CBUAE revises down its growth forecast for the UAE in 2025 on growing economic uncertainty

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: UAE on track to surpass Saudi Arabia in construction contracts for the first time in years

Good morning, lovely people, and welcome to the final workday of June. We hope you had plenty of time to recharge during the long weekend, because judging by the news cycle this morning, things are already back to business as usual.

We have several big stories here at home, including the Central Bank of the UAE revising its growth forecast for the year downwards amid global economic uncertainty, XRG’s consortium granted due diligence for its Santos takeover, and Mubadala unwinding its private credit partnership with BlackRock.

WEATHER- It’s a mostly cloudy day today, with Dubai set to see a high of 40°C today, and an overnight low of 31°C. Abu Dhabi will see a high of 36°C and an overnight low of 31°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Dubai regulator reportedly searches Magellan Capital’s offices after whistleblower report: The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) searched the offices of hedge fund startup Magellan Capital last month, after a former trader accused senior executive Ahmed Omar of concealing losses and blocking staff from escalating risk concerns, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. DFSA officials examined company laptops and phones and questioned employees onsite, though the regulator declined to comment on whether a formal investigation is underway.

ICYMI- The search came after ex-portfolio manager Britney Lam (LinkedIn) filed complaints with both the DFSA and the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in May. Lam, who left Magellan last October after just five months, alleged regulatory breaches and said she raised concerns in a whistle-blower letter to the board that went unaddressed.

Magellan has denied the allegations, saying it is not FCA-regulated and does not manage external client funds. The firm, which had been preparing to launch with USD 700 mn in proprietary capital backed by a Middle Eastern family office, said it maintains full ownership oversight, third-party audits, and whistleblower policies.

#2- Also under scrutiny…: UK oilfield services firm Wood Group — which is currently the target of a takeover bid by UAE-based Sidara — is under investigation by the FCA over its accounting practices, the company said in a statement. The probe covers activity between January 2023 and November 2024, and follows an earlier independent review into how the firm booked certain contracts and exceptional charges. Wood missed its 2024 results filing deadline in April, and its shares have been suspended from trading since 1 May.

Background: The company has been the subject of an on-again, off-again takeover bid from Dubai-based Sidara for over a year. The bid deadline was recently extended to today to allow time to resolve pre-conditions tied to debt restructuring, liquidity, and the delayed audit. Sidara’s latest allcash offer values Wood at USD 318.4 mn with a USD 450 mn debt package, and has been described by Wood’s board as a “better option” for shareholders — though it marks a sharp drop from earlier proposals that valued the firm at GBP 1.6 bn before financial governance issues surfaced.

#3- The UAE is on track to surpass Saudi Arabia in construction awards for the first time since 2018, with USD 31 bn in contracts awarded so far this year compared to USD 20.6 bn in the kingdom, Bloomberg reports, citing MEED data. The shift reflects strong momentum in the UAE’s infrastructure and real estate sectors, while Saudi Arabia pulls back amid funding pressures, rising costs, and shifting priorities. Contracts for the KSA’s Vision 2030 giga projects have fallen to just USD 4 bn this year, down from USD 24 bn in 2024.

Things could still change: Activity may rebound in 2H as contracts linked to the 2034 FIFA World Cup are rolled out.

#4- Dubai to revamp construction sector evaluation: Dubai Municipality will roll out new performance criteria for contracting companies and engineering consultancies starting 2026, as part of efforts to tighten oversight and raise industry standards, according to a Dubai Media Office statement. The updated evaluation system will assess firms based on financial solvency, Emiratization rates, corporate social responsibility involvement, project delivery timelines, use of advanced technologies, and client feedback.

In context: The move came after the Committee of Registration and Licensing the Practice suspended two engineering consultancy offices for six months over ethical and professional concerns.

#5- ADFD backs UAE-GCC power grid link-up: The Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) signed an AED 752 mn (c. USD 205 mn) financing agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (GCCIA) to expand the GCC power grid’s link with the UAE, state news agency Wam reports. The project includes a 400 KV double-circuit transmission line between the UAE’s Al Silaa substation and Saudi Arabia’s Salwa substation, upgrades to substations in Gonan, Al Silaa, and Salwa, and new protection and control systems, and will see the transmission capacity increase from 1.2 GW to 3 GW.

The goal: The expansion aims to strengthen grid capacity, improve emergency response, and boost cross-border power trade. GCCIA said similar interconnection projects with Kuwait, Oman, and southern Iraq are in the pipeline, representing a combined investment of over USD 1 bn.

We knew this was coming: The ADFD was set to fully finance the expansion, for which the GCC Interconnection Authority is aiming to award contracts by mid-year as part of a rush to complete the projects by 2027. The authority had already received 8-10 bids for the expansion with the UAE and Oman.

Refresher: The Gulf Electricity Interconnection Project stretches over around 913 km from Kuwait to Oman and plans to connect all six gulf countries.

#6- Shipping b’naire John Fredriksen has shuttered his London business base and relocated operations to the UAE, saying the UK “has gone to hell” amid mounting dissatisfaction with the economy and tax policy, The Standard reports. Seatankers Management closed its headquarters on Sloane Square, and the Norwegian-born oil tanker mogul — worth an estimated GBP 13.7 bn according to the Sunday Times Rich List — is among a wave of wealthy residents leaving the UK following the Labor party’s dismantling of the non-dom tax regime in April.

DATA POINT-

The UAE’s travel and tourism sector contributed AED 257.3 bn to the national GDP in 2024, representing 13% of the economy, Wam reports, citing data from the World Travel and Tourism Council. The figure marks a 26% increase from 2019 pre-pandemic levels.

International visitor spending was over AED 217.3 bn, up 30.4% from 2019, while domestic tourism expenditure grew 41% from the same year to AED 57.6 bn. Key source markets included India (14%), the UK (8%), Russia (8%), China (5%), and Saudi Arabia (5%).

The breakdown: The sector generated USD 8.6 bn in tax revenue, or 5.4% of government income. WTTC projects international tourism spending will grow by 5.2% this year to reach AED 228.5 bn, whilst domestic spending is set for a 4.3% uptick to AED 60 bn.

PSA-

#1- Sharjah launches instant commercial license: The Sharjah Economic Development Department (SEDD) has rolled out a new service allowing investors to obtain a commercial license within one working day, without requiring a lease contract or memorandum of association in the first year, Wam reports. The license covers office-based activities that don’t require external approvals and permits for up to three employees. Standard licensing requirements must be fulfilled starting in the second year.

#2- Emirates will maintain its suspension of flights to and from Tehran until at least Saturday, 5 July at the earliest, according to a statement. The decision comes despite a ceasefire ending the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel. Most UAE carriers have resumed normal operations following the recent tensions.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel’s attack on Iran’s Evin Prison killed dozens: Israel’s attack on Tehran’s Evin Prison last week killed 71 people, Iranian judiciary spokesperson Asghar Jahangir confirmed yesterday. The prison holds political prisoners and foreigners, marking a shift from Israel’s attacks on military and nuclear sites. Victims included administrative staff, military conscripts, detainees, visiting family members, and nearby residents. (Reuters | New York Times | Associated Press | France24)

AND- Another DeepSeek? Chinese tech giant Baidu will open source its Ernie generative AI model today, in what experts are calling China’s biggest AI move since DeepSeek. While some analysts see it as a challenge to US giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, others say its global impact will hinge on security concerns and market trust. “Baidu just threw a Molotov into the AI world,” Epic Loot founder Alec Strasmore told CNBC, adding that it could trigger a price war in AI services.

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CBUAE revises down its growth forecast for the UAE to 4.4% in 2025

CBUAE revises down its growth forecast for the UAE this year: The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) now sees real GDP growing by 4.4% in 2025 — up from 4.0% in 2024 —- before accelerating further to 5.4% in 2026, it said in its Quarterly Economic Review (pdf). The projections for both this year and next year are down 0.3 percentage points from the CBUAE’s last forecast in March, when it predicted 4.7% growth and 5.7% growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

The downward revision was attributed to “the effects of slower global economic activity, increased uncertainty and falling oil prices,” the report reads.

Driving the growth: The hydrocarbon sector is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2025 — up from just 1.0% in 2024 — before expanding further to 8.1% in 2026. This is attributed to OPEC+ production plans as well as “upstream and midstream activities in the oil and gas sector.” Meanwhile, non-oil growth is set to slow down to 4.5% this year, compared to 5% growth in 2024. The non-oil sector will continue to grow on the back of ongoing investment-friendly policies that foster innovation in sectors from manufacturing and tourism to transport and the digital economy, the report said

Downside risks remain: Growth projections for both 2025 and 2026 are marred by risks stemming from issues including unresolved global trade policy, as well as lower oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions.

On the upside, the UAE’s growth prospects could be boosted by “the successful execution of reform agendas combined with diversification strategies,” as well as the signing of trade agreements, investment projects, and further integration of artificial intelligence, the report read.

As for inflation, the CBUAE slightly lowered its inflation forecast for 2025 down by a 0.1 percentage point to 1.9, which it attributed to a “continuous downward trend in transportation costs” and “moderating energy prices.” Inflation is expected to remain unchanged in 2026, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point downward revision from the bank’s previous forecast for next year.

The regional outlook: The CBUAE sees economic growth in the GCC region increasing to 3.2% in 2025, up from an estimated 1.8% in 2024, with the UAE and KSA cited as the main drivers of the uptick. This is a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the bank’s previous forecast, which is attributed to “lower hydrocarbon revenues and, to some extent, non-hydrocarbon sectors.” Growth in the GCC is expected to accelerate to 4.3% in 2026, due to a recovery in oil production that is expected to come in tandem with a robust performance in the non-hydrocarbon sector.

Mubadala unwinds its Asian private credit partnership with BlackRock

Mubadala Investment and BlackRock ended their Asia-focused private credit partnership, citing challenges in sourcing transactions, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The partnership, which focused on investments in China and Indonesia, deployed a limited amount of capital since its launch in 2023.

What went wrong? In China, the partnership struggled to source transactions that met its target return profile—reportedly in the mid-teens. In Indonesia, progress was hindered by the departure of Christopher Ganis, BlackRock’s head of private credit, who left to join the Indonesia Investment Authority early on during the partnership. More uncertainty followed with the recent exit of Celia Yan, BlackRock’s head of Asia-Pacific private credit, who joined Apollo.

Mubadala is still bullish on Asia-Pacific investments: The sovereign investor last year formed a USD 1 bn private credit partnership with Goldman Sachs, and has committed funds to PAG’s renewable energy fund PAG REN I, and India’s Manipal Health Enterprises. These moves are part of Mubadala’s broader plan to more than double its exposure to Asia, aiming to raise the region’s share of its portfolio to 25% from 12%.

What’s next? UAE sovereign funds continue to eye APAC investments. Mubadala is expected to be a cornerstone investor in the upcoming IPO of Hong Kong’s FWD Group Holdings, while the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is reportedly exploring stakes in India’s education loan provider HDFC Credila Financial Services and telco Vodafone Idea.

Mubadala buys 30% stake in Hong Kong-headquartered pallet pooling company Loscam

Mubadala to acquire a significant stake in Loscam Int’l: Mubadala Investment’s subsidiary Mamoura Diversified Global Holdings signed a share purchase agreement to acquire a 30% stake in Hong Kong-headquartered pallet pooling and returnable packaging company Loscam International Holdings, for a total of USD 566.6 mn (RMB 4.1 bn), according to a disclosure (pdf). The purchase price was based on a company valuation of RMB 11.8 bn on 31 December 2024.

Meet Loscam: The company provides pallet and returnable packaging solutions, including leasing, maintenance, cleaning, and related services for goods transport across Australia, New Zealand, Southeast Asia, and Greater China, according to its website. The company is currently 45% owned by China Merchants Shipping, 33% by CITIC Capital Maneuver, and 22% by FV Pallet. As of the end of last year, Loscam’s net assets amounted to RMB 5.7 bn (USD 795 mn). Also, its net income rose 4% y-o-y to RMB 477 mn (USD 66.6 mn) in 2024.

The sellers? China Merchants Shipping will sell a 25% stake, CITIC Capital Maneuver will divest 3%, and FV Pallet will offload 2%. This makes Mubadala and CITIC the largest shareholders in the company, with each holding a 30% stake.

Mubadala’s acquisition of a stake in Loscam marks a significant expansion of its logistics portfolio, deepening its exposure in the global supply chain and infrastructure space beyond its existing investments, which currently include Australian Logistics Platform and PCI Pharma Services. The move also aligns with Mubadala’s broader push to diversify into resilient, asset-backed sectors with long-term growth potential, while tapping into the demand for more efficient, sustainable logistics systems in fast-growing markets.

XRG-led consortium kicks off due diligence for Santos takeover

Australian oil and gas producer Santos granted the consortium led by Adnoc’s international investment arm XRG six-week exclusive due diligence access, starting 27 June, as part of a potential USD 18.7 bn takeover, according to a disclosure(pdf). During this exclusivity period, Santos is bound by “no shop,” “no talk,” and “no due diligence” clauses, though a fiduciary exception remains in place should a superior offer emerge after four weeks.

Background: The consortium, which includes Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ and private equity firm Carlyle, submitted earlier this month an indicative, non-binding USD 18.7 bn takeover bid to acquire Santos. The consortium would pay USD 5.76 (AUD 8.89) per share as part of the transaction.

ADVISORS- Goldman Sachs and JB North & Co are financial advisors to Santos, while Rothschild & Co is acting as independent board advisor. Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer is acting as legal advisor to Santos.

UAE-based crypto fund Aqua1 bought USD 100 mn worth of WLFI tokens

UAE-based crypto fund Aqua1 Foundation purchased USD 100 mn worth of the World Liberty Financial tokens, WLFI, making it the largest individual investor in the digital asset project, Reuters reports. Blockchain data shows that Aqua1’s wallet, aqua1.eth, received 800 mn WLFI tokens in three separate transactions about two weeks ago, Bloomberg reports.

The investment will be used to develop blockchain-powered financial applications, including stablecoins and the digitization of traditional assets. “WLFI and Aqua 1 will jointly identify and nurture high-potential blockchain projects together,” Aqua1’s founding partner, Dave Lee said. Aqua1’s investment and compliance teams will also support World Liberty's expansion into South America, Europe, and Asia.

The purchase gives Aqua1 extra perks, including voting rights on the project's governance decisions. While the token is currently non-tradable, World Liberty says it is working to make the token transferable.

World Liberty also plans to support the launch of Aqua1’s UAE-based Aqua Fund, aimed at accelerating digital economy transformation in the Middle East through blockchain and artificial intelligence. Details on the fund’s regional partners have not yet been disclosed.

REMEMBER- This is not the first vote of confidence in the Trump-backed crypto venture from a UAE firm. In May 2025, Abu Dhabi’s AI fund MGX invested USD 2 bn via World Liberty’s USD1 stablecoin into Binance. Abu Dhabi’s DWF Labs also acquired USD 25 mn worth of tokens issued by World Liberty in April 2025.

Dubai greenlights policy reforms in education, air quality, legal mediation, and public construction

Dubai greenlights new policy reforms to boost FDI, liveability: Dubai’s Executive Council, chaired by Crown Prince Hamdan bin Mohammed, approved a package of policies covering higher education, career guidance, air quality, dispute resolution, and government construction oversight, according to a Dubai Media Office statement.

Ambitious goals for higher education: A new strategy aims to position Dubai among the world’s top 10 cities for university students by 2033, with international students making up 50% of total enrollments. The higher education sector is projected to contribute AED 5.6 bn to GDP. Plans include reforms to student visas, expanded scholarships, and incentives to attract top 200-ranked global institutions. A parallel career guidance policy targets employment for 90% of Emirati graduates within six months.

Environment and legal reforms are on the table: The Council approved Dubai’s Air Quality Strategy 2030, which seeks to meet clean air standards on 90% of days and cut fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations to 35 micrograms per cubic m. The strategy involves coordination across multiple government entities, including Dubai Municipality, Dewa, RTA, and DP World.

The Dubai International Mediation Center was also approved to offer cost-effective dispute resolution services. The initiative, developed in partnership with Europe’s ADR Center, aims to improve Dubai’s civil justice rankings and attract foreign investment.

Construction oversight framework introduced: A new governance policy will categorize public construction projects by size and cost, aiming to standardize procedures, improve oversight, and better align spending with fiscal priorities. It supports the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, which targets AED 700 bn in government spending over the next decade, up from AED 512 bn over the past 10 years.

CBUAE’s T-sukuk for June 5.6x oversubscribed

The Central Bank of the UAE’s (CBUAE) AED 1.1 bn T-Sukuk auction in June was 5.6x oversubscribed, receiving AED 6.21 bn in bids, with participation from eight primary investors, according to a Finance Ministry statement on X on Thursday.

The details: The auction included two tranches — the first tranche is set to mature in May 2027, offering a yield of 3.88%, while the second tranche will mature in August 2028 with a yield of 3.83%. The yields represent a spread of 2 basis points above comparable US Treasuries.

June’s auction builds on successive oversubscribed auctions over the past months this year, including one in May seeing 6.3x in demand after receiving AED 6.9 bn in bids, while April’s auction drew AED 6.1 bn in bids. February’s auction was 6.5x oversubscribed and January’s AED 6.9 bn gave it a subscription rate of 6.3x.

Global Ventures backs decentralized cloud startup PoliCloud with EUR 7.5 mn funding round

Dubai-based Global Ventures led a EUR 7.5 mn seed investment round for French sovereign cloud provider PoliCloud, according to a press release (pdf). The funding round also saw participation from Inria, OneRagtime, and Mi8, and the new capital will be used to hire the operating team and grow its business globally, focusing on public entities in Europe.

The pitch: The investment comes amid European efforts to diversify the USD 800 bn cloud market away from reliance on US-based providers. PoliCloud already deployed four systems since its February 2025 launch and is projected to bring in revenues of EUR 6 mn this year. The company's distributed model claims lower operational costs than traditional hyperscale cloud providers.

About PoliCloud: The Cannes-based company provides sovereign cloud infrastructure through a decentralized network of micro-data centers. Cities like Cannes have used its PoliCloud system, as have private firms like Data Factory.

IN OTHER STARTUP NEWS-

Dubai-based startup-focused entrepreneurial platform idea-L secured USD 1 mn in pre-seed funding to develop its AI and Web3 platform that guides entrepreneurs from concept to funded venture, according to a press release. The oversubscribed funding round was led by angel investors and includes undisclosed partnership commitments.

Where will the money go: The funding will support technical hiring and launch plans for the company's GovToken and decentralized VC fund. idea-L's core product, the Idea Realization Platform, uses AI for rapid venture validation through its fast-feasibility tool, with additional features for market analysis and funding access set to be rolled out by the end of the year.

Dubai Investments names new COO and acting CFO

Dubai Investments has appointed Mushtaq Masood (LinkedIn) as its new chief operating officer, and Nishant Shah (LinkedIn)as acting chief financial officer, effective from 1 July 2025, according to a bourse disclosure (pdf). Masood is the firm’s CFO, and his previous roles include CFO of Septech Holdings and positions at Cupola Group, and Adnoc Distribution. Shah is currently Dubai Investments’ finance director, and he previously held leadership positions at KPMG Lower Gulf.

Hany Mahmoud Farag submitted his resignation as CEO of the National Corporation for Tourism and Hotels (NCTH), effective today, according to a bourse disclosure (pdf). The move comes as Farag retires. The statement did not specify a successor.

A new UAE-China trade hub

BUSINESS-

UAE + China launch Qingdao trade hub: The UAE and China launched the Qingdao Overseas Integrated Service Center (QOISC) at the China-Arab Business Forum to support growing trade and investment between China and the Arab world, according to a press release. Backed by Chinese construction and engineering firm SEPCOIII and manufacturer Hisense, the center will use the UAE as a regional base to help Chinese firms expand across the MENA region, and boost exports to local markets.

The launch comes as China-Arab trade topped USD 400 bn in 2024, up from just USD 36.7 bn twenty years before. At the forum, USD 5.9 bn in new agreements were signed across sectors including energy, advanced manufacturing, and information technology.

FACILITIES MANAGEMENT-

Solutions+ and Serco expand IFM venture: Mubadala-owned consultancy Solutions+ and UK-based services firm Serco are scaling up their joint venture, Khadamat Facilities Management, into a consolidated national operator for integrated facilities management (IFM), according to a statement. The expansion will see IFM contracts from both companies rolled into Khadamat, which will also serve as the platform for future agreements. Service delivery will focus on sectors including healthcare, transport, real estate, and government infrastructure.

The rationale: The restructuring aims to streamline operations and build local capabilities, while advancing Emiratization and long-term infrastructure goals. “By combining our digital-first approach with Serco’s international IFM expertise, we are setting a new benchmark for integrated service excellence,” Solutions+ Managing Director Nasir Al Nabhani said.

Serco’s UAE footprint is growing: The company recently secured a five-year, AED 495 mn contract extension with Dubai Airports until 2030, covering guest services at Dubai International and Al Maktoum International airports.

CAPITAL MARKETS-

More global firms look to ADGM: US quantitative trading firm Jane Street Group applied to establish operations in ADGM, according to regulatory filings, Bloomberg reports. The move marks the company's first physical presence in the Middle East as it eyes expansion after last year saw it bring in USD 20.5 bn in trading revenues.

Not the only one: German asset manager firm DWS Group, with USD 1.2 tn in assets under management, is also looking to set up shop in ADGM, the news outlet reported citing sources familiar with the matter. The firm’s Middle East and Africa head of coverage Joe Kiwan will relocate from Paris to lead the new office. Initial staffing will include three sales specialists, with plans for future expansion.

PROPTECH-

Coralytics AI partners up with US and France on proptech platform: UAE-based AI firm Coralytics entered a three-party agreement with France's National Union of Real Estate Professionals (SNPI) and US tech firm RealtyFeed to develop an AI-powered platform for real estate professionals, according to a press release. The collaboration will focus on creating standardized solutions for property listings that comply with Real Estate Standards Organization protocols, and will be initially deployed in the French real estate market.

REAL ESTATE-

#1- Manam launches AED 175 mn Dubai residential project: Oman-based real estate firm Manam began construction on Manam Pearl, an AED 175 mn residential tower in Dubai's Al Furjan district, Khaleej Times reports. The 17-story project will contain 77 apartments and is Manam's second major Emirati project following its AED 40 mn Manam Prime project in Dubai South. The company is also planning a third development in Al Jaddaf worth AED 225 mn.

#2- Shamal taps Khansaheb for AED 1 bn contract: Dubai-based investment firm Shama l has appointed Khansaheb Civil Engineering as the main contractor for Dubai Harbour Residences in a transaction valued at over AED 1 bn, according to the Dubai Media Office. Foundation and beachfront formation works on the seafront residential district are already complete, with Khansaheb now set to begin main construction, working alongside the project’s development partner Dubai-based H&H.

DEBT-

#1- Fitch affirms Emaar Properties' BBB rating: Fitch Ratings maintained Emaar Properties' long-term issuer default rating at BBB, with a stable outlook, according to a rating commentary. The decision reflects the firm’s consistent performance across business units, strong order book, robust four-to-five year project pipeline, and solid netcash position at the end of last year. The firm recently received an upgraded rating to BBB+, from BBB earlier, from S&P Global, while Moody’s raised Emaar’s rating to Baa1 from Baa2 with a stable outlook.

#2- Al Farwaniya Project Development secures additional financing for Reem Mall: Al Farwaniya Project Development, the developer of Al Reem Mall, secured a USD 100 mn incremental credit facility for the mall’s refinancing program, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The new commitment expands AFPD's existing multiyear credit facility guaranteed by Agility Global. Proceeds will partially repay a short-term facility provided by an Agility Global subsidiary.

Investors flee long-term US bonds as Trump tax bill revives debt fears

Investors are pulling out of long term US bond funds at the fastest pace since early 2020, the Financial Times reports. Nearly USD 11 bn left long-dated government and corporate bond funds in 2Q — a stark reversal from the average USD 20 bn in inflows over the past three years.

The bigger picture: The US bond market is often used as a reflection of wider investor sentiment, with recent outflows pointing to a growing discomfort with the long end of the treasury curve amid ballooning supply, political dysfunction, and renewed inflation risks from Trump’s tariff agenda. Inflation is also expected to rise as the effect of the trade levies start to be felt, dampening confidence even more by eroding yields on longer-dated bonds.

Another USD tns in debt still to come? At the same time, a sweeping tax-and spending package advanced by the Republican-controlled US Senate over the weekend is deepening investor jitters over the country’s long-term fiscal outlook, Reuters reports. If the senate passes the bill, it returns to the House for final approval before heading to Trump’s desk.

The bill: The legislation — which would extend Trump-era tax cuts, raise military and border spending, and lift the debt ceiling by USD 5 tn — passed a procedural hurdle by 51-49 after hours of backroom negotiations. Analysts predict it could add USD tns to the current USD 36.2 tn worth of US government debt.

Higher inflation is bad for long-term bonds: Currently, inflation — to which longer-dated bonds are sensitive as the value of fixed-interest payments erodes over time — remains above the target, and investors are already demanding high yields to absorb the supply.

On the flip side, funds holding short-term US debt have seen over USD 39 bn in inflows this quarter as yields remain strong after the Fed’s decision to keep short-term rates high. Greater diversity in maturity dates for holdings is also an option for investors, RBC Global Asset Management’s Andrzej Skiba told the Financial Times.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the green, as data out of Japan showed an increase in industrial output and China’s purchasing managers’ index showed another month of contraction. Japan’s Nikkei hit a six-month high, rising 1.5%, while China’s CSI 300 rose 0.2%. On the flip side, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.5%.

Over on Wall Street, futures have also inched up after another rally last Friday, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch new records.

ADX	9,886	+0.8% (YTD: +5.0%)
DFM	5,684	+1.3% (YTD: +10.2%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,663	+1.4% (YTD: +12.0%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.2% o/n	4.2% 1 yr
TASI	11,203	+1.2% (YTD: -7.1%)
EGX30	33,207	+0.6% (YTD: +11.6%)
S&P 500	6,173	+0.5% (YTD: +5.0%)
FTSE 100	8,799	+0.7% (YTD: +7.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,326	+1.6% (YTD: +8.8%)
Brent crude	USD 67.44	-0.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.68	-1.5%
Gold	USD 3,269	-0.6%
BTC	USD 108,166	+0.7% (YTD: +15.3%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.6	-1.6% (YTD: +1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	145.29	-0.1% (YTD: +3.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.32	-1.6% (YTD: -5.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.8% on Thursday on turnover of AED 1.9 bn. The index is up 5.0% YTD.

In the green: Al Khaleej Investment (+7.9%), Rak Properties (+7.6%) and Abu Dhabi National Co. for Building Materials (+7.5%).

In the red: Oman & Emirates Investment Holding Co (-10.0%), Sharjah Cement and Industrial Development Co. (-3.1%) and Presight AI Holding (-2.9%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 1.3% on turnover of AED 954.5 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1.4%.

Abu Dhabi crown prince leads UAE delegation to Minsk, inks trade and investment agreements with Belarus and EAEU

The UAE ratified a trade and economic partnership agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) during the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, according to a statement. The EPA targets tariff reductions and cooperation in areas such as renewable energy, logistics, and construction with the five EAEU member countries: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The UAE had finalized trade talks with the EAEU in December.

Fast facts: Bilateral non-oil trade between the UAE and EAEU reached USD 29 bn in 2024, up 27% y-o-y.

This came during a visit led by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to Minsk, where he also met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the UAE-Russia strategic partnership and regional developments, according to a separate Abu Dhabi Media Office statement.

Al Nahyan also held bilateral talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, where the two sides formalized a trade in services and investment agreement, according to a separate statement. The agreement aims to expand UAE market access in Belarus across sectors including financial services, consulting, healthcare, and education.

UAE, China discuss energy and industrial ties: Industry Minister Sultan Al Jaber held talks with senior Chinese officials and business leaders in Beijing to advance cooperation in energy, industry, and infrastructure, Wam reports. Discussions covered joint projects in oil and gas, renewables, LNG, petrochemicals, and shipping, as well as potential investments in industrial and infrastructure initiatives. The visit comes as UAE-China non-oil trade rose 18% y-o-y in 1Q 2025, driven by a 32.5% increase in UAE exports.

On the meeting list: Al Jaber met with China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an, Communist Party official Liu Jianchao, and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank President Zou Jiayi. He also held talks with executives from the China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, ZhenHua Oil, Wanhua, China Investment Corporation, Envision, and China Energy Engineering Corporation.

ALSO- UAEPresident Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and European Council President António Costa discussed strengthening bilateral relations in a phone call, state news agency Wam reports. They reviewed progress towards a comprehensive economic partnership agreement between the UAE and EU and addressed urgent regional matters, focusing on the need for an immediate Gaza ceasefire.

CALENDAR

JULY

6-7 July (Sunday-Monday): BRICS Summit, Rio de Janeiro.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

1-6 September (Monday-Saturday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): DigiHealth exhibition, World Trade Center, Dubai.

8-19 September (Monday-Wednesday): WHX-Tech Expo, Dubai World Trade Centre.

10-11 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mena Public-Private Partnership Forum ,Dubai.

12-14 September (Friday-Sunday): The International Real Estate and Investment Show, Abu Dhabi.

16-17 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): The KT UniExpo, The H Dubai.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mohammed Bin Rashid Leadership Forum, Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development, Dubai.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Dubai World Congress for Self-Driving Transport, Dubai.

OCTOBER

1-2 October (Thursday-Friday):World Green Economy Summit (WGES), Dubai World Trade Centre.

30 September - 2 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The Water, Energy, Technology, and Environment Exhibition (WETEX), Dubai World Trade Centre.

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Symposium on the System of Radiological Protection, the Ritz-Carlton Abu Dhabi, Grand Canal.

9 October (Thursday): Family Office Summit, Park Hyatt, Dubai.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

14-16 October (Wednesday-Friday): Global Future Councils, Dubai.

22-24 October (Wednesday-Friday): World Investment Conference, Expo Centre Sharjah.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

11-17 November (Tuesday-Monday): International Council of Museums (ICOM) General Conference, Dubai

12-17 November (Wednesday-Monday): RoboCup Asia-Pacific, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi.

15-17 November (Saturday-Monday): Myplant & Garden Middle East Green Expo, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow 2025, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-14 December (Sunday-Sunday): Asian Youth Para Games, APC headquarters, Dubai.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): BTC Mena Conference, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): BRIDGE media summit, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

18-23 December (Thursday-Tuesday): Games of the Future, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

29-30 December (Monday-Tuesday): World Sports Summit, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)
The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Global Implementation Support Symposium, Abu Dhabi.
Universal Postal Congress 2025, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

1 January: Client asset regime changes in Dubai International Financial Center take effect.
9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit’s fourth edition, UAE.
28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.
3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.
12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference 2026, UAE
The first edition of Dubai Future Finance Week
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime between 2027 and 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai.
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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