CBUAE offers relief to markets with resilience package + Tax breaks on the table?

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Fresh tax incentives on the table? + CBUAE holds rates steady

Good morning, lovely people, and welcome back. We’re keeping an eye on how many of you are *actually* back, as many of the people we know who traveled for the Eid break extend their stays abroad as remote work looks set in place for a little while longer.

Schools are also still remote for another two weeks, making it much easier for many families to remain abroad for a little bit as things settle down.

NOT HELPING THINGS- ⛈️WEATHER- The weather forecast this week is giving the people who are abroad more reasons to stay put, and the people who are here more reasons to stay home. The National Center of Meteorology has flagged a stretch of “atmospheric instability” through to Friday, with rain, thunderstorms, and possible hail expected across multiple regions, state news agency Wam reports.

Expect a high of 31°C in Dubai and 28°C in Abu Dhabi, along with lows of 21-22°C accompanied by thunderstorms in the evening.

As if the airlines aren’t suffering enough…: Air Arabia says the weather could impact operations out of Sharjah, Abu Dhabi and Ras Al Khaimah, according to an X post. Flydubai has warned of potential delays and disruptions at Dubai International Airport, Gulf News reports.

We dive into the latest airspace updates along with where the damage was over the long weekend as Iran continued to strike targets across the UAE in today’s War Watch, below.

The big story of the day is positive, though, as markets responded well to the Central Bank of the UAE’s resilience package announced late on Tuesday right before the Eid break began.

ALSO- Beyond the CBUAE’s package, the Federal Tax Authority is introducing several tax incentives — one for R&D spenders, and the other, the Financial Times reports, for expats whose stay in the country was disrupted by the war.

And: We take a look as the war drags on at how it has impacted recruitment patterns in the UAE, with analysts reporting minimal impact — but raising a bigger question for if the war drags on even further.

Plus: The CBUAE held interest rates steady: The Central Bank of the UAE held the Overnight Deposit Facility rate at 3.65%, in line with the US Federal Reserve’s move, according to a statement (pdf). The CBUAE also left short-term borrowing costs unchanged at 50 basis points above the base rate.

SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT — UAE authorities shot down rumors of restrictions on investors moving capital out of the UAE, including by freezing bank accounts and imposing restrictions on money transfers, calling the reports false and fake news.

Watch this space

TAX — UAE authorities could be offering greater leniency to expats who have left the country due to the ongoing regional war, the Financial Times reports, citing people with knowledge of the plan. The Federal Tax Authority (FTA) is now expected to review residency applications on a case-by-case basis for those whose travel or stay has been disrupted by the war, showing more leniency on the requirement for residents to spend 183 days in a year (or 90 days for those who are employed or own a home in the UAE)

Why it matters: Many high-net-worth individuals who fled when the conflict began on February 28 risk losing their tax-exempt status. If these residents are forced to pay taxes in their home jurisdictions (like the UK), the UAE risks a permanent exodus of capital and talent.

INVESTMENT — The UAE isn’t pulling back on its biggest global wager: Despite regional escalation, officials say the country’s USD 1.4 tn investment pipeline into the US remains on track, with plans to accelerate deployment, according to a letter by Ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba to the UAE-US Business Council.

Years of building sovereign buffers, hardening infrastructure, and strengthening supply chains are now being put to the test, keeping ports, airports, and trade flows running under pressure, Al Otaiba said. “This is not a war we wanted, and we worked intensely to avoid it,” Al Otaiba said. “But even as we held hope and pursued de-escalation, we also knew a war could someday come.”

In the pipeline so far: The initial pledge was made last year during a UAE delegation to Washington, and is set to come over 10 years. It saw Emirates Global Aluminium pledge to invest some USD 5-6 bn in the US’ first new smelter in more than four decades, and is also widely understood to be behind the US’ later greenlighting the export of Nvidia chips to the UAE.

INS — GCC ins. revenue growth is set for a sharp deceleration in 2026, with projections for Saudi Arabia and the UAE cooling to 5% — a significant drop from years of double-digit expansion, according to a recent S&P Global report. While the agency notes that direct exposure to war-related claims is limited and manageable, the conflict is reshaping the sector's risk profile and bottom lines.

Most regional insurers aren’t on the hook for direct war damage caused by the conflict. Standard policies “generally exclude war risks,” the report indicates, and specialized coverage is typically 100% offloaded to global reinsurers, insulating local balance sheets from catastrophic payouts.

The real pain is operational: A prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to squeeze supply chains and spike the cost of spare car parts and other imported goods. Given that motor lines account for 20-30% of total sector revenue, reduced business activity and tourism could mean a decrease in motor claims, which would offset claims inflation and eat into the underwriting profitability insurers have fought to maintain.

The outlook: While consumer-driven lines (like new car policies) will stall alongside wavering sentiment, a new revenue stream is emerging, which is high-margin war-risk coverage, the report explains. Watch for the UAE to lead the way with a formalized war-risk ins. scheme, offering a lifeline to the handful of insurers equipped to write specialized policies in a high-rate environment.

The big story abroad

Most eyes are on the impact of the regional war on financial markets, from crypto to gold and equities.

Asian shares look set for a correction — a 10% decline from a recent peak — as markets fall during early trading on the back of high oil prices and the escalation of the war in the region. Meanwhile, gold slid for the ninth consecutive day, tumbling nearly 4%, and bonds across the world are seeing a selloff.

LNG export declines are also getting attention: Global LNG exports fell to a six-month low this month as Qatar, one of the world’s largest gas producers, had to halt exports due to the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and repeated attacks on facilities, according to Kpler data picked up by Bloomberg.

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Oil watch

Oil pricing in the Middle East is being rewritten in real time, and it is happening inside one of the market’s most important benchmarks. The Dubai crude benchmark has been tweaked again as flows through the Strait of Hormuz stall, forcing pricing bodies to adapt to a market that’s no longer functioning normally, Bloomberg reports.

What changed this time: S&P Global (via Platts) has suspended a pricing offset that normally applies to Abu Dhabi’s flagship Murban crude, which will keep Murban from dropping below Dubai’s level during daily assessments. Crucially, this makes it more attractive to deliver into the benchmark at a time when supply options are shrinking.

Why this matters: The Dubai benchmark underpins pricing for a huge share of Middle East crude exports. But right now, the system is under stress — with only a limited pool of crude grades (mainly Murban and Oman) still able to participate due to shipping disruptions.

What’s driving all this: The closure of Hurmoz — one of the world’s most critical oil checkpoints — has choked off tanker traffic and forced producers to reroute or hold back supply. The UAE is still moving some barrels via Fujairah (outside the strait), while Oman is relying on Mina Al Fahal — but both routes are seeing disruptions.

The price distortion is already showing: Murban was trading around USD 125.9 / bbl, while Dubai set closer to USD 166.8 / bbl before the change — a wide and atypical gap for two benchmarks that typically move more in sync.

The bigger picture: This is the second methodology change in weeks. First, Gulf-loading crude was excluded altogether. Now, pricing rules are being loosened to keep the benchmark alive.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

CBUAE’s resilience package offers brief relief to investors

The Central Bank of the UAE’s five-pillar Financial Institutional Resilience Package, announced late on Tuesday, has given investors a jolt of confidence in the domestic banking sector as it navigates this period of intense regional volatility.

Markets closed in the green for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, after having seen outflows since opening after the regional war began, pulling the DFM near bear market territory. The DFM rose 0.8%, led by financial institutions’ gains, with Ajman Bank rising 5.3% and Mashreq gaining 4.8%.

The move aligns with what most analysts expected from the government. “We consider the UAE as highly supportive to their banking system and expect extraordinary support to be forthcoming should the need arise, so we incorporate notches of support in our bank ratings in the UAE,” S&P Global Ratings’ managing director for financial institution ratings Mohamed Damak tells us.

REMEMBER- The program allows banks to tap into 30% of their mandatory cash reserves and access new AED and USD term facilities, and also gives them the green light to postpone the classification of loans for stressed individual and corporate borrowers, a move reminiscent of the pandemic-era support measures.

The buffer relief comes as UAE banks already “operate at healthy capital buffers,” CI Capital said in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. The CBUAE statement also mentioned foreign exchange reserves of more than AED 1 tn and a monetary base cover ratio of 119%.

What to watch, according to pundits: Some lenders might be more exposed than others due to exposure to sectors that might see be negatively impacted by a prolonged disruption due to the war, like real estate. Real estate accounts for roughly 16% of First Abu Dhabi Bank’s loanbook for example, though only 20% of that is tied to Dubai, CI Capital said.

!_SubHead_! The regional picture for the banking sector

Despite the strong capital buffers that GCC banks have, a prolonged war will trigger “some deterioration in financial performance in 2026,” S&P Global warned in a report. While business continuity plans remain intact, the resilience narrative faces a “sterner test” if energy volatility and supply chain disruptions harden into a long-term drag.

S&P models a potential USD 307 bn exodus of domestic deposits across the GCC. While banks sit on USD 312 bn in cash and central bank reserves, a systemic run of that size would likely force the liquidation of investment portfolios. The good news is after a 20% haircut on those assets, the region’s lenders would still have a USD 630 bn liquidity moat to deploy, suggesting even a worst-case scenario is manageable for most.

The exceptions: Most GCC banking systems can absorb external outflows without state help, but Bahrain and Qatar remain the most vulnerable to funding flight due to their heightened external debt, the report explains.

What to watch: The conflict’s hit to balance sheets won’t be immediate, but S&P warns of a performance dip in 2026 as stress in logistics, tourism, and real estate trickles through. While the region’s top 45 lenders boast a solid 17.1% Tier 1 capital ratio, a “high-stress” scenario— where NPLs spike to 7% of total loans — could wipe out USD 37 bn in capital.

The talent stress test

Weeks into the regional war, recruiters and employers say hiring across the UAE has not frozen, expats are not rushing for the exits, and international mandates are still moving. The harder question is whether that holds if disruption starts looking structural rather than temporary.

In context: For years, Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been trying to turn transient expat inflows into something stickier. Long-term visas, wider foreign ownership rules, and family-friendly residency reforms were designed to convince global talent that the Gulf was no longer just a stopover.

That model is now facing an early stress test: The current conflict is testing how durable that shift really is, particularly in cities where foreigners account for about 90% of the population.

The first week looked almost entirely normal, Trefor Murphy, founder and CEO of recruitment advisory firm Cooper Fitch, tells EnterpriseAM. “Every interview that was booked in happened. There was literally no change,” he says, adding that while many briefly shifted to working from home, hiring pipelines stayed intact and offices have since returned to normal rhythms.

Why you should listen to Murphy: Cooper Fitch advises employers across the GCC on senior hiring and workforce strategy, with headquarters in Dubai and more than half its business tied to Saudi Arabia, giving it a wide lens across multinational and regional hiring mandates.

No client has asked Cooper Fitch to halt recruitment because of recent events. “Not a single client has come to us to say they’ve decided they’re not going ahead with hiring plans,” Murphy says, noting that most employers still appear to assume disruption will be contained quickly enough not to justify rewriting expansion plans. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is seeing “zero impact” so far, with international recruitment continuing normally.

Dubai-based recruitment agency TASC Outsourcing backs that up: “Despite broader regional uncertainty, hiring demand in the UAE remains relatively robust,” Anil Singh, chief business officer at TASC Outsourcing, tells EnterpriseAM, adding that companies continue investing in key talent because of the country’s strategic position and business stability.

By the numbers:

As we previously covered, the UAE entered this period from a position of unusual hiring strength. Cooper Fitch’s latest Gulf Employment Index showed UAE employment growing 3% q-o-q in 3Q 2025 — the fastest in the GCC — while annual population inflows of 200k-300k kept demand elevated. Nearly half of UAE firms still planned to add headcount, with hiring divergence tied more to project execution than wider macro sentiment, Murphy previously told us.

Yes, but: As the war drags on, the hiring picture is becoming harder to read. Hiring in some sectors including aviation and hospitality unexpectedly accelerated for a period, while others softened slightly, though not enough to suggest a clear pattern, Murphy said.

“When something like this happens, you start looking at data by the minute, by the hour — and that’s not a good way to look at anything,” he says, arguing that short-term fluctuations still resemble ordinary weekly volatility more than a genuine market shift.

What makes the picture harder to read: In the UAE, movement often looks less like exit and more like rerouting — a pattern Zacky Sajjad, director of business development and client relations at Cavendish Maxwell, tells EnterpriseAM also applies to capital flows. “Capital does not retreat indiscriminately. It reallocates toward environments that offer clarity, liquidity, and long-term economic vision,” Sajjad says.

As the war drags on, the picture could look less positive

The risk increases by the week: Murphy says the first thing to weaken in a prolonged scenario would not necessarily be hiring itself, but risk appetite. “If we’re still in exactly the same situation two weeks later, then I think it’ll have a greater impact,” he says.

International firms will likely react first: Multinationals typically tighten faster through slower approvals, more cautious treasury decisions, and reduced lending appetite before visible hiring freezes appear. Local firms, Murphy says, historically show greater tolerance for operating through uncertainty and tend to accelerate again once conditions stabilize.

That caution is already showing up in how firms frame hiring decisions. “Multinational firms are generally taking a more measured approach, prioritizing strategic roles,” Singh says, while senior executives are also seeking more clarity on organizational stability and employee support before making moves.

There is also a more sensitive threshold beneath that: Safety. Murphy says the UAE’s appeal has always rested partly on being able to offer top global talent not just opportunity, but security. “If you remove that safety, people will look at things and look at your options for you and your family,” he says, suggesting that prolonged disruption without civilian spillover is one scenario, but visible escalation into residential life would change the equation much faster.

That said, there’s a window for “bulletproof” status

The on-ground picture therefore matters more than headline noise. “Roads are super busy. Parks are full. Playgrounds are full of kids,” Murphy says — a contrast he argues matters psychologically for employers, investors, and incoming talent alike.

That resilience may ultimately reinforce the UAE’s position if disruption remains contained. If the current period ends without major civilian impact, Murphy argues, Dubai and Abu Dhabi could emerge with an even stronger reputation for resilience, adding another stress test to a post-pandemic credibility story that already helped cement the UAE as the region’s leading hiring market.

And that resilience has been built deliberately: “Dubai’s — and the wider UAE’s — performance during recent regional tensions demonstrates that safe-haven status is built through deliberate strategy rather than circumstance,” Sajjad says, pointing to policy consistency, world-class infrastructure, and deep global connectivity as the factors that have “strengthened the market’s ability to absorb volatility.”

Those same fundamentals are what businesses will keep watching now: “Governance standards, transparency, regulatory certainty, and sustained economic diversification,” Sajjad argues, are increasingly what define the GCC’s competitive edge, making resilience “an active advantage” rather than a passive outcome.

So, add bulletproof to the list of UAE attractions? “If this is resolved in a month and we’ve had no significant impact, Dubai and Abu Dhabi would be considered bulletproof,” Murphy says. For Sajjad, emerging strongly from this period would be a reinforcement of “[the Gulf’s] role within the emerging global geography of capital.”

Energy infrastructure targeted over the Eid break

The regional war showed no signs of slowing down over the weekend, as US President Donald Trump’s suggestions of the war being almost over were swiftly followed by renewed attacks from both sides. Most notably, Israel attacked the South Pars gas field, Iran’s primary energy resource, and Iranian strikes took out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. To top it off, Trump threatened on Saturday night to target Iranian power plants if it doesn’t fully open the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours.

Iran responded with a threat of its own: “If ⁠Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy infrastructure, as well as information technology...and water desalination facilities, belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be targeted pursuant to previous warnings,” Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari said, according to state media.

Energy and IT infrastructure have already been targeted multiple times so far during this war, with strikes on the Amazon Web Services data centers in Bahrain and Dubai leading to a widespread outage hitting dozens of regional firms, and energy facilities in Abu Dhabi suffering several hits so far.

How vital are water desalination facilities to the region? They produce 100% of the water consumed in Bahrain and Qatar, 80% of drinking water needs in the UAE, and 50% of supply needs in Saudi Arabia, Reuters reports.

A coalition of more than 20 countries has condemned Iran over attacks on commercial vessels and what it described as the “de facto closure” of the Strait.

Strikes kept defense systems working over the Eid break

The interceptions continued: UAE air defenses intercepted four ballistic missiles and 25 UAVs in a single day yesterday, bringing totals since the start of the conflict to 345 missiles and more than 1.7k drones.

And energy infrastructure was in the crosshairs

Iranian strikes targeted key Emirati energy infrastructure over the weekend, launching attacks on the Habshan gas facility and Bab field, both intercepted without injuries, as attacks on Adnoc-linked assets continue, according to a Foreign Affairs Ministry statement. Authorities have called it a “dangerous escalation.”

The interceptions prompted shutdowns of the complex, which is one of the largest gas processing plants in the world, with 6.1 bn cubic feet daily capacity.

The framing is shifting: Industry and Advanced Technology Minister and Adnoc head Sultan Al Jaber put it bluntly on LinkedIn, saying energy infrastructure “should never be a target.” He described the attacks as “global economic warfare,” warning that energy flows are being weaponized.

Air travel feeling the strain as airport targeted

The skies are still open, but less predictable. Abu Dhabi has seen a string of delays and cancellations, while Dubai is holding steadier for now with lighter disruptions, The National reports.

But the system is getting more sensitive: Temporary airspace closures and early-morning alerts show how quickly operations can shift, even if normality resumes within hours. Airlines are already adapting — Emirates is running a reduced schedule and offering flexibility, while global carriers including British Airways, Lufthansa, Air France, Singapore Airlines are scaling back Dubai routes.

Airlines are even having to grapple with damage to aircraft: Two aircraft parked at Dubai International Airport had reportedly been damaged earlier on in the conflict by Iranian strikes, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Great news for R&D spenders

Companies can now reduce their corporate and domestic minimum top-up tax liability by claiming a credit against “eligible” R&D expenditure, after the Finance Ministry rolled out tax breaks for companies doing R&D, according to a press release. The tax incentive program will be rolled out in phases, and will apply on the tax period starting from 1 January, 2026, according to Alvarez and Marsal.

In the first phase of the program, firms that invest in scientific or technological advancements — think sectors like biotech, fintech, and advanced manufacturing — can lower their effective tax rate by up to 50% by claiming a non-refundable credit, capped at AED 5 mn, on qualifying spend.

There’s rules… and thresholds: The credit is tiered, meaning the first AED 1 mn of spend gets a 15% credit, the next gets 35%, and the final AED 3 mn gets 50%. You also cannot spend your way to a lower tax rate alone. You must meet a 14-person R&D headcount to unlock the 50% credit tier. If you have the spend but only five staff, your entire claim is capped at the 15% tier.

What qualifies as R&D spend? Salaries (including a 30% uplift for overheads), consumables, and sub-contracting fees.

What’s next: A second phase is already on the table, and could include a refundable credit and potentially broader eligibility for what counts as qualifying expenditure.

Why does a refundable credit matter? A refundable credit allows companies — especially ones that pay heavy R&D expenses like startups that have yet to become profitable — to receive a rebate if their R&D spend qualifies them for a tax credit that’s larger than their current tax bill. Under the first phase, the non-refundable credit only allows them to pay zero tax in that case, with the remaining amount possibly carried forward to the next year.

ICYMI- Tax incentives for R&D have been under consideration for a while now — and the latest move signals that the UAE continues to double down on economic diversification efforts by focusing on advanced sectors like tech and AI.

Masdar’s net income dips 13.7%

Emirati renewables giant Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) saw net income fall 13.7% y-o-y to AED 355.9 mn, as revenues grew 9.1% y-o-y to AED 3.7 bn, according to its financials (pdf).

Finance expenses more than doubled from AED 638 mn to AED 1.4 bn, dragging results down, despite government grants and other income partially offsetting costs. General and administrative expenses also ticked up by 36.6% to AED 1.1 bn, and project expenses also saw a rise.

The bigger picture: Total comprehensive income was up to AED 2.3 bn compared to an AED 31.4 mn loss the year before, after the firm saw AED 1.9 bn from foreign currency gains from overseas operations.

Mansour AlMulla tapped as Abu Dhabi Aviation chairman

Mansour AlMulla (LinkedIn) was tapped as Abu Dhabi Aviation's new chairman, following a shareholder vote, according to a disclosure (pdf). AlMulla is also chief investment officer at Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ, chief investment officer at Mubadala Petroleum, and CEO of state defense firm Edge Group.

Adnoc inks key agreement for Borouge complex, Mubadala makes returns on sale, and Starlink lands in the UAE

Adnoc, OMV make headway on Borouge platform

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and Austrian natural gas firm OMV will begin to operate and market volumes from the new Borouge 4 (B4) complex in exchange for an at-cost fee, as they make headway on the merger of their polyolefins business, according to a statement.

Why it matters: By using an at-cost usage fee, the new group pockets an estimated USD 400 mn in net income over the next three years without having to secure the full acquisition of the complex from current owners, which is not expected before 2029, according to the statement.

REMEMBER- Adnoc and OMV last year agreed to merge their polyolefins businesses into Borouge Group International, a c. USD 60 bn platform combining Borouge, Borealis, and Nova Chemicals, with planned capacity of 13.6 mn tonnes across Europe, the Middle East, and North America. The merger is on track to be completed before the end of the month.

What we know: The agreement is expected to generate around USD 400 mn in cumulative net income over three years, lifting earnings by roughly 10% once fully ramped up. Borouge 4 is set to ramp up capacity through 2026, with plans to start it up this quarter.

Mubadala, KKR make whopping returns on sale of cooling infrastructure firm

Mubadala and KKR are making an almost USD 4.8 bn exit, after selling Canada-based cooling solutions player CoolIT Systems to US-based water systems firm Ecolab, according to a statement. The company focuses mostly on providing cooling infrastructure for data centers.

Mubadala’s role: The sovereign wealth fund acquired CoolIT Systems along with global investment firm KKR back in 2023 for only USD 270 mn. The ownership split of the agreement wasn’t disclosed.

Starlink is here

Starlink is now live in the UAE — and it is not just for edge cases anymore: SpaceX’s satellite-based internet network that beams connectivity from low Earth orbit satellites, Starlink, is now offering satellite broadband locally, Khaleej Times reports. Roaming prices start at AED 190 but the main barrier for entry when it comes to home internet is the hardware, which you’ll need to pay AED 1.1k upfront for.

REMEMBER- Starlink was first reported to be eyeing an Emirates entry last summer. Emirates Airlines are also set to roll out the service on their fleet.

What’s actually different about Starlink? This setup sidesteps local telecoms infrastructure entirely. That makes it useful in weak coverage zones or as a backup connection — but performance can fluctuate depending on weather, positioning, and network load.

Our take: The rollout comes at an opportune time given the current Iranian strikes on infrastructure in the Emirates. The hit to the Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE and Bahrain has made it abundantly clear that Iran won’t stop short of targeting different types of infrastructure across the Gulf during the war, from energy to telecoms and tech. That makes a connectivity option that sidesteps local infrastructure likely to prove popular or perhaps even essential for some as the duration and scope of the war remains uncertain.

Fed holds steady as it acknowledges uncertainty due to the war

As expected, the US Federal Reserve overwhelmingly opted to leave benchmark interest rates unchanged at between 3.5% and 3.75%, with just one member advocating for a cut, according to a statement. The move marks the second decision this year to keep rates as they are, after the Fed opted to hold rates steady in January as the central bank weighed up both strong GDP growth and a soft labor market.

Fed acknowledges “uncertainty” around regional war: The Fed noted that the US/Israel-Iran war in the Middle East had made the situation markedly more uncertain. “The thing I really want to emphasize is that nobody knows,” Fed chair Jerome Powell said after the meeting in reference to the potential effects of the war on the global economy, Bloomberg reports.

The deciding factor, as it always has been, is inflation, but the outlook for that is also uncertain. Powell said that inflation would need to come down, especially for baskets affected by tariff policies, before they could make another rate cut. The Fed also hiked up its inflation forecast to 2.7% for this year, up from a previous 2.4% estimate, according to data released with the decision. Both figures are markedly above its ultimate 2% goal, and its prediction for core categories was also up to 2.7%.

REMEMBER- Analysts, economists, and traders alike have been expecting inflation to spike in case of a prolonged regional war, as oil and gas prices continue to rise amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which are also impacting shipping, freight, and ins. costs.

What to expect from the Fed next: Back in January, markets had priced in two rate cuts starting in July, after Powell’s tenure as Fed chair comes to an end. Now, bond traders are predicting we won’t see another rate cut at all this year, Bloomberg reported elsewhere. Bond yields in Europe and the US climbed, with those on two-year US Treasuries, usually the most sensitive to expectations for Fed policy, climbing 11 basis points.

Could there be a hike in the cards? Some bond traders are hedging for a potential hike in the coming months, while interest rate futures priced a rate hike by December as 25% likely, a sharp aboutturn from days before when the prospect of a hike was practically a nonstarter. For now, Powell has shrugged off the possibility of a rate hike being its next move, saying that “the vast majority of participants don’t see that as their base case.”

ADX	9,571	+0.2% (YTD: -4.2%)
DFM	5,550	+0.8% (YTD: -8.2%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,503	+0.5% (YTD: +7.9%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.5% o/n	3.7% 1 yr
TASI	10,946	+0.6% (YTD: +4.3%)
EGX30	47,612	+3.4% (YTD: +13.8%)
S&P 500	6,506	-1.5% (YTD: -5%)
FTSE 100	9,918	-1.4% (YTD: -0.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,501	-2% (YTD: -5%)
Brent crude	USD 112.19	+3.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.1	-2.2%
Gold	USD 4,610	-0.7%
BTC	USD 67,913	-3.4% (YTD: -23.5%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.55	-1.9% (YTD: -3.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.15	-0.6% (YTD: -1.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	26.78	+11.3% (YTD: +79.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.8% on Wednesday on turnover of AED 2.4 bn. The index is down 8.2% YTD.

In the green: Amlak Finance (+14.4%), Emaar Development (+6.3%), and Ajman Bank (+5.3%).

In the red: Dubai Refreshment Company (-5.0%), Air Arabia (-4.9%), and Taaleem Holdings (-4.8%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.2% on turnover of AED 3.1 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.5%.

CALENDAR

MARCH

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

31 March-2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

6-9 April (Monday-Thursday): Dubai AI Week, Dubai.

7-8 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai AI Festival, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

29 April (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Annual MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit.
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai.
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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