Good morning, friends. Multiple fires broke out yesterday from Fujairah to Dubai after defense forces again intercepted incoming Iranian drones. But the loud explosions — which officials have made sure to remind us (every time) are from the interception of incoming Iranian attacks — were still much less frequent than the first couple of days of the conflict.
HAPPENING TODAY- All eyes shift this morning to capital markets, which are set to reopen after a rare two-daysuspension. Outflows are likely, pundits tell us in this morning’s Big Story Today, whether you’re talking about the stock market or foreign direct investment. Israel and the US continue to signal that the war has just begun, so it’s anyone’s guess what the final hit to investor sentiment will be.
Look for shares to be constrained by a 5% loss-limit on all listed securities on both ADXand DFM.
Analysts expect traders to start the day with a significant backlog of orders, which typically signals a “volatile open” where a sharp move in the first hour would not be unusual, as we reported earlier this week. Still, the highly “institutional” nature of our markets — with long-only capital serving as anchors — means we’ll likely be spared a complete meltdown. The 5% circuit breaker on price drops (while artificial) could help.
^^ We have a full rundown in this morning’s news well, below.
MEANWHILE- One industry that’s set to take the deepest hit: Tourism. We dive into the potential repercussions of the disruptions of the past few days — and of those yet to come — in this morning’s news well, below.
LITERALLY CLOSER TO HOME- Schools are going to stayremote-only until Friday to the dismay of every parent we know, but more stores and shops are reopening, including restaurants and retail outlets in DIFC.
Oh, and it gets better: We’re going to get rain today. Look for the mercury to hit 34°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, before cooling to 23°C in the former and 22°C in the capital.
FINALLY- You can find a rundown of what has happened on the ground over the past day, and the message that government officials sought to deliver at a presser in Abu Dhabi yesterday, in this morning’s War Watch, below.
From the Dept. of Get out of Dodge:
The General Civil Aviation Authority is running evacuation flights from UAE airports, state news agency Wam says.
ALSO- The United States government is scheduling charter flights to evacuate Americans in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, the State Department said in a statement.
ANOTHER WAY OUT? — Abu Dhabi is testing a backup route for people and cargo — just in case… Etihad Rail ran a passenger train trial of the line linking Al Ghuwaifat on the Saudi border to Al Faya in Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Media Office said. Al Ghuwaifat sits at one of the UAE’s key western entry points from Saudi Arabia. Connecting it directly to Al Faya — which has a major dry port linked to Khalifa Port.
AND- Some travelers are paying as much as EUR 200k for luxury flights to Europe via airports spared from attack, the Associated Press reports.
Watch this space: The accidental transport edition
SUPPLY CHAINS — Asia-based traders are scrambling to find alternatives for dry sulfur supplies stranded in the Gulf, a critical input for fertilizers and nickel processing, Bloomberg reports
Why it matters to us: As one of the world’s top exporters of sulfur, the UAE sits at the heart of a trade route that accounts for roughly 50% — 20 mn tons — of global seaborne sulfur trade.
What it means: Lost revenue for domestic producers and higher prices across Asia.
The movement of gold bullion into and out of the UAE is also taking a hit, the businessinformation service reports, thanks to the cancellation of flights. The UAE has become a major hub for refining, exporting, and transhipping the precious metal from markets like London and Switzerland.
TRANSPORT — Chinese robotaxi operators including autonomous driving firm WeRide have hit “pause” on Dubai operations, Reuters reports. The company said its fleet is still running in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, but staff are working from home and avoiding unnecessary trips to stay safe.
WeRide’s competitors are “monitoring the situation,” including Baidu’s Apollo Go and Pony.ai, which paused trials of its vehicles in Dubai.
BACKGROUND- Dubai opened its first autonomous vehicle operations and control center — Baidu’s first outside China — to oversee fleet operations, charging, maintenance, and safety. The commercial launch of Apollo Go was targeted for 1Q 2026.
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Energy watch
Energy prices are rising, but … not as fast as some had feared? With drone attacks knocking out one of Saudi Arabia’s largest refineries and the world’s largest LNG export facility in Qatar — and despite ins. costs and security risks continuing to choke traffic through Hormuz — prices are nowhere near crisis mode, Oxford Economics says in a note seen by EnterpriseAM.
What’s the tipping point? Somewhere near USD 130 per barrel, the firm says.
Oxford cut global supply forecast by 4 mn bbl / d for the next quarter, with its base case assuming Hormuz traffic runs 50% below normal for two months, with roughly 6 mn bbl / d of Gulf crude rerouted via alternative pipelines, including the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline. US shale can respond within three to six months, OECD members hold 90 days of stocks, China is sitting on record-high inventories, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE together hold some 3.5 mn bbl / d of spare capacity.
MEANWHILE- The US Navy will escort oil tankers through the Gulf, US President Donald Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network. The US International Development Finance Corporation will at the same time provide ins. for oil tankers in the Gulf at a “very reasonable price,” he added.
“No matter what, the United States will ensure the free flow of energy to the world,” Trump added.
Easier said than done, experts say: While the rise of crude prices stalled briefly after Trump’s announcement, it will take weeks, not days, to get tankers moving again, experts warn.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it has hit 10 oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, AlArabiya reports.
Happening today
S&P Global is publishing its Purchasing Managers’ Index report for February shortly after we hit dispatch. It will be interesting to see if prospects of the war — if not the war itself, which started on 28 February — have factored into purchasing managers’ forecasts, potentially putting the index on track to fall from its high of 54.9 — well above the 50 mark indicating growth — in January.
The big story abroad
The latest on the escalating regional war continues to dominate the front pages, which we dive into in the news well, below.
MEANWHILE IN BUSINESS NEWS- The world's largest alternative asset manager Blackstone has seen its clients pull out USD 3.7 bn from its flagship BCred fund in 1Q 2026. The private credit sector is currently facing scrutiny over valuation and transparency. Rival investment group Blue Owl’s decision to halt redemptions also placed a strain on the sector.
AND- French media group Banijay Group is merging its TV production business with rival Alll3Media, forming a single entity — which will become the world’s largest independent TV producer.



