BMI downgrades UAE’s growth forecast amid headwinds. PLUS: IPO activity may be picking up again

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Mubadala is re-assessing its investment strategy amid trade tensions, CEO says + Tourism is off to a strong start this year

Good morning, friends, and welcome to the final work week of April. We kick off the week with a busy issue, led by the latest revised growth forecast for the UAE post-tariffs, this time from Fitch Ratings. On the upside: IPO activity could be picking up again, with reports that Dubizzle and Property Finder are both sounding out investors for potential listings.

AND- Debt capital markets had a strong 1Q 2025, and the UAE is expected to be the most active EM issuer this year.

☀️ WEATHER- It's another hot and sunny day today, with Dubai afternoon temperature reaching 42°C before significantly cooling down to nighttime lows of 30°C. As usual it's a bit cooler in Abu Dhabi, with afternoon highs at 35°C and nighttime lows at 28°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Mubadala recalibrates investment strategy amid trade tensions: Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala is taking a more cautious approach to global investments amid escalating US-driven trade tensions, Arabian Gulf Business Insights cites CEO Khaldoon Al Mubarak as saying on the sidelines of the IMF spring meetings. Each move will now take more time to be considered and will be evaluated on a “merit basis” as Mubadala adjusts its “base case assumptions.”

Still, the UAE ♥️ US: The US remains a “major destination of capital coming from UAE institutions,” particularly in technology, energy, and infrastructure, Al Mubarak said. Last month, the UAE pledged USD 1.4 tn in investments in the US to be rolled out over the next decade, and US President Donald Trump is set to visit the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar next month to discuss further Gulf investment commitments. Mubadala also recently committed USD 1 bn to a strategic partnership with US-based asset manager Fortress, in which it has a controlling stake.

Al Mubarak also met with key US officials — including the Treasury Secretary, Special Envoy to the Middle East, and the Commerce Secretary — in Washington last week, Wam reports. Talks focused on advancing Emirati plans to invest in the US.

#2- UAE, Sri Lanka, and India will begin talks to develop a joint energy hub in Sri Lanka’s Trincomalee, a port city on Sri Lanka’s east coast, in May, Reuters reports, citing a statement from Sri Lanka’s Energy Ministry. The three players inked an agreement to develop the energy hub this month, with plans including a multi-product pipeline, bunkering facilities, a refinery, and potential use of WWII-era oil storage tanks managed by Indian Oil Corp. It is not clear yet whether production will be exported or earmarked for domestic use.

What’s next? Representatives from AD Ports Group will meet with Sri Lankan state-run Ceylon Petroleum and Indian Oil later next month to begin discussion on an in-depth proposals for the hub, Sri Lanka’s Energy Ministry Secretary Udayanga Hemapala told Reuters. A joint project monitoring committee has been set up to oversee the process and the development plan.

#3- Time Hotels accelerates global expansion plans: UAE-based Time Hotels is planning to open 12 new properties across Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, Morocco, and the Indian Ocean by 1Q 2026, according to a press release. The hospitality company, which currently operates 17 properties across the region, is also expanding into the Maldives, where it will launch two new brands, Halo and Vivi, in 4Q 2026. It hopes to have a 100-hotel strong portfolio in the next five years.

#4- Food delivery robots coming to a neighborhood near you: Robot deliveries could soon expand across Dubai after Yango Technology’s pilot in Shobha Hartland saw more than 40% of customers opting for the service, regional head of Yango Technology Autonomy Middle East Nikita Gavrilov told Khaleej Times. Gavrilov said there is strong potential to roll out the delivery system in villa communities.

Uh, robot deliveries? The fully electric pods, developed in partnership with food tech and retail firm Roots and Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority, complete food and grocery deliveries in under 20 minutes. Dubai is looking to cut carbon emissions by 30% and shift 25% of transport to autonomous modes by 2030 under its Autonomous Transportation Strategy.

#5- More Syria-UAE flights: Syrian Airlines is set to boost its flights to Dubai by adding two new flights per week from Damascus as of 2 May, according to a statement. The airline is also adding two additional flights between Damascus and Sharjah, effective from 5 May, according to a separate statement.

REMEMBER- Flights between the UAE and Syria were resumed earlier this month, as most airlines resume flights to the country following the ouster of former president Bashar Al Assad. A Syrian Airlines flight to Sharjah was the first to take off from Damascus International Airport in January.

#6- The UAE’s new e-invoicing system, set to roll out in mid-2026, will reduce processing costs for businesses by up to 66%, Khaleej Times reports, citing Deloitte’s North-South Europe and Middle East director Kenneth Lei. The move will improve cashflows, reduce manual errors, speed up invoice approval times, and reduce administrative costs.

ICYMI- The Finance Ministry plans to launch an e-invoicing system in 2026, requiring businesses to issue and store invoices electronically. Legislation updates are expected in 2Q 2025 and the first phase of the system is set to roll out in 2Q 2026.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Dubai’s government revenues from real estate sales climbed 29.5% y-o-y to AED 5.7 bn in 1Q 2025, up from AED 4.4 bn in the same period last year, Al Khaleej reports, citing data from the Dubai Land Department (DLD). The growth came from the 4% registration fees on property sales transactions, and monthly revenues averaged AED 1.9 bn.

This follows a strong 2024, during which Dubai’s real estate revenues grew 30.6% y-o-y to AED 20.9 bn, supported by total real estate sales exceeding AED 522 bn across 180k transactions. Overall real estate transactions in Dubai hit a record value of AED 760.7 bn in 2024, up 19.8% y-o-y.

#2- Tourists from Western Europe accounted for the largest share of visitors in 1Q at 22%, followed by countries from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Eastern Europe at 17%, The National reports, citing data from the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing. Tourists hailing from the GCC, South Asia and the wider MENA region rounded out the top five source markets. The city’s hospitality sector reported an average daily rate of AED 647 in 1Q, up 2% y-o-y, with the number of occupied room nights reaching 11.2 mn.

REMEMBER-Dubai welcomed 5.3 mn international visitors in 1Q 2025, marking a 3% increase from the same period last year,.

#3- Abu Dhabi’s hotels recorded an 18% y-o-y increase in revenues to AED 2.3 bn in 1Q 2025, according to an Abu Dhabi Media Office statement. The emirate welcomed 1.4 mn overnight guests during the quarter, with hotel occupancy levels reaching 79%. The majority of visitors came from India, China, Russia, the UK, and the US.

In 2024, Abu Dhabi’s hotels generated over AED 7.6 bn in revenue, up 18.1% y-o-y from 2023. Overnight visitors totaled 3.2 mn last year, with occupancy rates also standing at 79% across the emirate.

#4- DP World recorded a 7.5% y-o-y jump in its gross container volumes to 22.3 mn TEUs globally in 1Q 2025, according to a company report (pdf). Jebel Ali port saw its handling volumes up 10% y-o-y to 4 mn TEUs in 1Q. The Middle East, Europe and Africa sub-section recorded the steepest increase to its handled gross volume, up 13.7% y-o-y to 8.3 mn TEUs. Meanwhile, Asia Pacific and India handled the largest total gross volume at 10.6 mn TEUs, growing 3.2% y-o-y.

PSA-

Dubai gets a new flyover: Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) and Etihad Rail inaugurated a 1.8km flyover to ease traffic flow to and from Dubai Investment Park, according to a statement. The signal-controlled flyover has a three-lane capacity and is designed to streamline traffic on Dubai’s Al Yalayis Street. The flyover is set to facilitate the smooth movement of trains traveling within the median strip of Al Yalayis Street by separating trains and vehicles.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Arabian Travel Market is starting today and running until Thursday, at the Dubai World Trade Center. The event convenes all travel sectors and verticals, addressing industry challenges for tourism businesses and offering networking sessions. The conference’s program focuses on hospitality, investment, sustainability, marketing, and technology.

#2- The International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers' Associations (IFATCA) conference is kicking off today and running all this week at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The conference brings together air traffic control professionals to discuss the air traffic management sector, focusing on capacity building, emerging technologies, and solutions to challenges faced by the industry.

#3-CultureSummit Abu Dhabi will wrap up tomorrow at Manarat Al Saadiyat in Abu Dhabi. The summit features panel discussions, keynote speeches, and interactive workshops where participants examine the evolving role of culture in society. Case studies and collaborative sessions will explore innovative approaches to cultural preservation, creative industries, and policy development.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1- The Fujairah International Conference of Adventures Tourism is running from Wednesday until Friday at the Fujairah Adventures Centre. The event will spotlight investment, sustainability, and innovation in adventure tourism. The agenda includes panel discussions, MoU signings, site tours, and the launch of the region’s first standardized framework for adventure tourism.

#2- The Behavioral Exchange 2025 Conference (BX2025) will be on Wednesday, 30 April and Thursday, 1 May at New York University Abu Dhabi. The event will gather global experts, policymakers, and researchers to discuss behavioral insights and their application in tackling complex societal challenges.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a quiet day in the global business press, as is typical of Monday mornings — but the foreign press is filled with news of attacks in different corners of the world.

In Vancouver, a car drove into a crowd celebrating Lapu Lapu day, a Filipino festival, at a neighborhood street party, killing 11 people and injuring several others. (Reuters | Guardian | FT)

Meanwhile, Israel launched an airstrike in a southern suburb of Beirut, jeopardizing a ceasefire that has held since November after claiming it was targeting an area that is a stronghold for Hezbollah, where Israeli officials said they were storing precision missiles. No casualties were reported. (Guardian | New York Times | AP)

Over in Iran, the blast at the country’s biggest port, Bandar Abbas, has so far killed 40 people, while more than 1.2k people are injured. Iran’s Defense Ministry has denied international media reports claiming that the blast could be linked to the mishandling of solid fuel used for missiles, though most reports say chemicals at the port were the suspected cause of the explosion. (Reuters)

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BMI downgrades UAE’s growth forecast, citing weaker oil prices and global demand

Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI revised down its GDP growth forecast for the UAE to 4.6% in 2025, down 0.5 percentage points from 5.1% previously, citing “lower oil prices and the weaker global demand because of the US tariffs,” BMI said in its MENA Monthly Outlook. Even with the downgrade, growth would still exceed the 3.8% uptick estimated in 2024.

The rationale: BMI said the downward revision is driven by “lower oil prices and the weaker global growth outlook, which will weigh on investment and demand for exports.” Growth will be mainly led by an uptick in oil production as Opec+ rolls back its output restrictions.

The US tariffs’ direct impact on the UAE’s economy will be “limited,” despite the UAE estimated to have the “highest effective [tariff] rate” among oil exporters at 12.8%, said BMI, noting that its exports to the US represent only 2.1% of its total exports and 1.4% of its GDP. However, the indirect impact of lower oil prices be a “bigger blow to the economy,” it said.

REFRESHER- Opec+ is moving ahead with its planned supply hikes, citing a positive market outlook, but has left room to pause or reverse course if needed. The UAE is set to benefit from a raised production quota of 3.5 mn barrels per day in 2025, up from 2.9 mn.

On a positive note: The research unit still says “the UAE will be the fastest-growing economy in the GCC this year,” and one of the few markets in the GCC that will see reduced inflationary pressures from the lower fuel prices as they are not subsidized, which will somewhat offset the impact of rent price pressures. Paired with lower borrowing costs, the impact of the levies’ is set to be “manageable.”

BMI’s Oil & Gas team revised down its 2025 average Brent oil price to USD 68 per barrel, from USD 76, following a four-year price low in April after the US tariffs triggered market uncertainty. Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing also pushed Fitch Solutions’ research unit to cut its global growth expectations, which “will translate into weaker domestic and foreign investment as well as lower global demand for UAE goods and services.”

Still, the UAE should come out relatively unscathed: The UAE’s fiscal and external breakeven oil prices are much lower than USD 68 per barrel, allowing it to post fiscal and current account surpluses despite oil price dips, BMI said. Although weaker oil prices could narrow its fiscal surplus to 3.3% of GDP in 2025 — from 5.6% of GDP in 2024 — BMI says the UAE will be the only GCC member which will not post a deficit this year, and is unlikely to “need to cut back on spending or public investment.”

How this compares to other forecasts: The World Bank raised its UAE forecast to 4.6% this year and 4.9% in 2026, up from 4.0% and 4.1%, respectively, attributing the upgrade to stronger non-oil momentum and a gradual unwinding of Opec+ oil output cuts. A Reuters poll of economists forecasted 4.5% growth — a downward revision from 5% earlier in January, though still the fastest in the region. Meanwhile, the IMF is less optimistic with a 4% growth forecast. The CBUAE expects a stronger 4.7% GDP growth, while S&P Global had previously forecast 5.1% growth this year.

Dubizzle, Property Finder are gauging investor interest ahead of potential IPOs

Competing proptech platforms Dubizzle and Property Finder are said to be gauging investor interest for their potential IPOs, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources. Dubizzle could raise at least USD 500 mn from the transaction, the sources said. Dubizzle reportedly enlisted Emirates NBD, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley to work on the potential offering.

Is Property Finder eyeing an IPO? While some sources said that Property Finder is talking to investors about a non-deal roadshow, others mentioned that these meetings are paving the way for an eventual IPO. Property Finder is talking to equity investors to explore the possibility of broadening its cap table, the news information service said, citing Michael Lahyani, the firm’s CEO. No further information was disclosed.

The news comes against the backdrop of jittery markets, with only one IPO taking place so far this year in the UAE, courtesy of Alpha Data. ADQ-backed Etihad Airways had pushed its highly anticipated IPO to after Eid Al Fitr, but we haven’t heard anything yet.

Other UAE IPOs in the pipeline:

Abu Dhabi conglomerate International Holding Company’s investment arm 2PointZero is gearing up for an IPO on the ADX;
Alec Construction and Arabian Construction are both eyeing IPOs;
Dubai Holding plans to float two of its property portfolio units;
Abu Dhabi Investment Group (ADIG) is eyeing listings for its financial unit and energy subsidiary this year;
Hospitality group Five Holdings also tapped advisors for a potential listing;
Amanat Holdings is planning to list its education and healthcare units;
Shisha producer Advanced Inhalation Ritual is also rumored to potentially IPO.

UAE set to become the most active debt issuer among EMs this year -Fitch

The UAE’s debt capital market (DCM) expanded in 1Q 2025, setting the stage for what Fitch Ratings expects to be the most active among emerging markets globally, particularly when it comes to sukuk, it said in a note. The UAE maintained its position as the second-largest DCM in the GCC and the fourth-largest emerging market USD debt issuer (excluding China) in 1Q 2025, with the DCM expanding 8.3% y-o-y to USD 309 bn, and issuances surging by 109% y-o-y to USD 29.1 bn.

The country’s sukuk issuances increased by 22.6% y-o-y to USD 4.9 bn in 1Q 2025, while bond issuances rose by 145%. UAE-based entities issued 6.5% of global outstanding sukuk by the end of 1Q 2025, with sukuk representing 18% of the country’s total DCM outstanding.

USD-denominated issuances dominated: Some 68.5% of issuances were denominated in USD. Meanwhile, AED debt issuances represent about a quarter of the UAE’s DCM as of the end of the quarter, with the government focused on issuing treasury sukuk rather than bonds. However, AED-denominated issuances by UAE corporates and banks remain scarce, along with a lack of Islamic alternatives to AED treasury bills.

As of the end of 1Q 2025, ESG debt outstanding topped USD 25 bn, marking a 30% jump y-o-y. Sukuk led the charge, soaring more than 40%.

But new issuance was not as lively: ESG debt issuance hit just USD 1.2 bn in 1Q — down 40.7% y-o-y — and it was all sukuk. Traditional ESG bonds? None were issued last quarter.

Debt capital markets are expected to see continued strong issuance growth throughout 2025, with projections for the market to expand to USD 350 bn in 2026. Growth drivers include funding diversification, upcoming debt maturities, project and infrastructure financing, regulatory reforms, and Islamic-finance ecosystem development. Fitch also expects Nasdaq Dubai to remain among the top listing centers globally for USD sukuk.

Looking ahead, higher tariffs could indirectly fuel greater DCM activity in the UAE, as weaker global demand driven by tariff-induced costs puts downward pressure on hydrocarbon prices. However, tariffs are not expected to directly affect the credit profiles of the UAE or other GCC countries.

REMEMBER- The agency previously had a strong outlook for the UAE’s debt capital markets in 2025, expecting it to reach USD 300 bn this year and surpass USD 400 bn over the next few years. Separately, the UAE has emerged as the world’s top-performing sukuk market since Trump’s return to the White House, outpacing even the US, as investors look towards EMs with strong fundamentals for tariff-safe assets.

ADIA buys more shares in Jefferies Credit Partners

ADIA raises ownership in Jefferies debt unit — again: Platinum Falcon — a unit of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) — nabbed an additional USD 5 mn stake in Jefferies Credit Partners (JCP) — the private credit arm of New York-listed investment bank Jefferies Financial Group, according to a filing to the SEC. The ADIA-backed firm purchased some 344k common shares in the debt fund at USD 14.5 apiece after Jefferies delivered a drawdown notice to Platinum Falcon.

This is only a top-up: ADIA’s latest capital injection brings its total holding in JCP to 61.9%, good for c.17.8 mn shares. The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund had already bought some 10.2 mn shares (which represented an 87% stake) in the debt fund last year followed by a series of incremental purchases — all of which were made through Platinum Falcon.

Uh, Enterprise, how did ADIA’s stake shrink if it upped its holding? While ADIA now owns more shares in JCP than it did last year, the debt unit’s total share count grew 2.5x since the fund’s first purchase, diluting its total ownership.

OTHER ADIA NEWS-

Ather Energy secures funds from Adia ahead of a planned IPO: The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) was among a group of anchor investors who participated in the USD 156.9 mn funding raised by India-based two-wheeler EV manufacturer Ather Energy in a pre-IPO funding round, Tech in Asia reports. Shares were allocated to 36 investors at USD 3.76 apiece. Ather’s IPO is set to wrap up before the end of the week.

TC Mena Holdings acquires majority stake in Gulf Cement

TC Mena Holdings secured a 64.06% stake in Gulf Cement: TC Mena Holdings acquired an additional stake of 26.44% in ADX-listed Gulf Cement, increasing its total holding to 64.06% after extending the deadline for shareholders tendering their shares, according to a disclosure to the ADX (pdf). The company, a unit of Italy’s Buzzi Unicem unit and Gulf Cement’s largest shareholder, had been gunning for up to 100% of the company, up from its current 37.6% stake, and a minimum of a 50%+1 controlling stake.

REMEMBER- TC raised its offer price to AED 0.75 per share earlier this month — up 33.92% from the initial bid — and after Gulf Cement’s shareholders approved the bid earlier this month. Gulf Cement — the largest cement producer in the UAE — netted some AED 41.5 mn in losses last year.

ADVISORS- Emirates NBD is quarterbacking the transaction as financial advisor, lead manager and receiving agent with Ibrahim N Partners providing legal counsel.

DWTC generated AED 22.4 bn in economic output last year amid events boom

The Dubai World Trade Center (DWTC) generated nearly AED 22.4 bn in economic output in 2024, driven by record growth in large-scale events, according to a Dubai Media Office statement, citing its latest Economic Impact Assessment. DWTC hosted 100 large-scale events last year — up 32% y-o-y — attracting over 2 mn attendees.

Gross value added (GVA) to Dubai’s GDP stood at AED 13.0 bn, underscoring the venue’s role in supporting the emirate’s broader diversification goals under the Dubai Economic Agenda D33.

Healthcare, food and hospitality, and information technology events were the main contributors, accounting for 58% of total GVA and attracting 51% of all event attendees.

Where the funds flowed: Direct event spending generated AED 2.9 bn within the meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE) sector, while supporting over 85.5k jobs. An additional AED 13.2 bn flowed into adjacent sectors such as hotel accommodation, retail, F&B, and transport.

International visitors drove spending: International visitors accounted for 46% of total attendees, spending nearly 6x more than domestic participants. Top source markets included Saudi Arabia, India, China, Turkey, and the UK.

REMEMBER- DWTC is expanding amid Dubai’s events boom: It tapped UK-based Mace Group last October to oversee the first phase of the AED 10 bn Dubai Exhibition Center expansion, set for completion by 2026. The full project, part of Dubai’s 2040 urban plan, is scheduled for completion by 2031, doubling exhibition space and event capacity.

The company is also expanding in the MICE sector: DWTC partnered with UK-based Informa Group last month to launch a Dubai-headquartered B2B events joint venture focused on the MICE sector. The new entity will oversee over 40 major events across the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa and is expected to generate around USD 700 mn in revenues.

Ghitha, Easy Lease see net income fall in 1Q

GHITHA-

Abu Dhabi-based food manufacturer Ghitha saw its net income fall 98% y-o-y to AED 52.6 mn in 1Q 2025, while operating income rose 6.4% YoY to AED 76.8 mn, according to an interim financial statement (pdf). The company reported a 7.2% rise in revenues y-o-y to AED 1.3 bn, and said that it focused on cost efficiencies during the quarter, as well as improving its product mix, while contributions from recent acquisitions buoyed the performance, according to its earnings release (pdf).

Looking ahead, M&A will continue to be a priority for Ghitha, the company said. ADX-listed agro-food outfit Invictus Investment — a unit of Ghitha — acquired Mozambique’s largest milling company Merec Industries ’parent company Stratton Africa Holding earlier this year, while subsidiary Zee Stores International acquired a 70% stake in Fujairah’s International Food Industries for AED 41 mn in October, along with several other acquisitions. Al Ain Farms also acquired UAE-based poultry producer Al Jazira Poultry Farm in March 2025 to strengthen its protein vertical, it said in the statement.

EASYLEASE-

EasyLease reported net income of AED 10.4 mn for 1Q 2025, a 20% dip compared to the same period last year, according to the company’s earnings release (pdf). The firm’s revenues from sales rose by 71% y-o-y to AED 166.3 mn for the first quarter, with subsidiary expansion and strategic investments to expand its infrastructure driving the strong results.

Mashreq names Marwan Galadari as new head of trading companies

Our friends at Mashreq have appointed Marwan Galadari (LinkedIn) as the new head of trading companies, according to a post on Linkedin. Galadari joins Mashreq from Emirates NBD, where he served as head of corporate coverage for large corporates in corporate and institutional banking. His background in corporate banking and capital markets also includes working as director of global capital markets at Emirates NBD Capital and an assistant manager role at First Gulf Bank.

Umm Al Quwain gets new sprawling “downtown” coastal development

REAL ESTATE-

Umm Al Quwain has launched a 25 mn sq ft coastal development called Downtown Umm Al Quwain (Downtown UAQ), state news agency Wam reports. The new development will feature an 11 km shoreline, and will include commercial centers, office spaces, residential builds, and leisure and hospitality facilities. The urban plan includes three districts — North Beach, Trade Center, and South Beach — and the development will accommodate 150k residents. The Umm Al Quwain government is partnering with real estate developer Sobha Realty on the first phase of construction. No investment value for the development has been disclosed.

New trade hub in the works: The development will include a 15 mn sq ft trade center freezone that will operate under an independent framework to attract global businesses and investment.

#2- Nord Lifestyle Development launches AED 500 mn project: Goldfield Holding-backed luxury real estate developer Nord Lifestyle Development has launched Henge Residences, a AED 500 mn luxury residential project on Abu Dhabi’s Saadiyat Island, according to a press release. Nord is looking to increase its contributions to Abu Dhabi’s economy, CEO Maher Rahabi said. Currently Nord holds AED 342 mn in assets in the emirate.

The details: The project was developed in collaboration with Italian design house Henge, and is set for completion in 1Q 2028. Sales for its 166 properties are underway through Nord’s direct channels and brokers, and start from AED 1.1 mn for a studio and reaching up to AED 4.7 mn for a three-bed property.

OIL AND GAS-

Dragon Oil inks slew of agreements at Gotech 2025: Dubai Government-owned oil and gas firm Dragon Oil signed several MoUs and strategic agreements to expand its operations in Egypt, Gabon, and Turkey at Gotech 2025, according to a statement. The breakdown:

Dragon Oil and Business Oil Africa agreed to develop oil and gas assets in Gabon;
It also inked a settlement agreement with Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO), the statement said, without disclosing further details;
And was awarded a new concession by the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) for petroleum exploration in Egypt’s East El Hamd area.

…and targeted digital transformation: The firm signed a MoU with oil and gas software solutions firm Quorum to boost digital transformation and operational efficiency. It also partnered with Baker Hughes, Corva, and Exebenus to launch AI solutions in drilling operations management. The company also agreed to collaborate with geophysical firm BGP to institute state-of-the-art seismic survey technology and AI applications.

STARTUPS-

Dubai Future Foundation, du, Dtec, and in5 partner with Ignyte to support startups: Dubai International Financial Center’s start-up focused platform Ignyte signed four strategic partnership agreements with the Dubai Future Foundation (DFF), du, Dubai Technology Entrepreneurship Campus (Dtec), and in5 during Dubai AI Week 2025 to support startup growth, state news agency Wam reports.

The details: Under the agreements, DFF will join Ignyte’s platform to drive innovation programming and engage with its startup and investor ecosystem, while du will serve as Ignyte’s exclusive telecom partner, offering communications infrastructure, mentorship, and access to digital tools. Dtec will provide Ignyte startups with soft-landing programs and subsidized licensing solutions, and in5 will provide incubation and fast-tracked licensing in technology, media, and design sectors.

TRADE-

#1- The DubaiChamber of Commerce has established the Slovak Business Council, which aims to strengthen trade and investment links between Dubai and Slovakia, Wam reports.

Slovak business activity in Dubai is accelerating: By the end of 2024, 134 Slovak companies were registered with the chamber — up 41% y-o-y — and non-oil trade between Dubai and Slovakia grew 38% y-o-y to AED 3.4 bn. Ten new Slovak companies joined the chamber in 1Q 2025 alone.

#2- Abu Dhabi Chamber has opened its first international representative office in Katowice, Poland, Al Khaleej reports. The office will serve as a platform for UAE companies seeking entry into European markets and for Polish companies eyeing the UAE. It aims to strengthen trade, investment, and bilateral relations, UAE Ambassador to Poland Mohamed Ahmed Al Harbi said.

AI-

#1- New AI academy in Dubai: Dubai Crown Prince Hamdan bin Mohammed has launched the Dubai AI Academy to train 10k leaders — including government employees in an initial offering — in AI-related skills in collaboration with Oxford University’s Saïd Business School, the Minerva Project, and Udacity, Wam reports.

#2- The Dubai FutureFoundation and Google Cloud have partnered to roll out an upskilling initiative for chief AI officers (CAIOs) across government entities, Wam reports. The training will provide CAIOs access to Google Cloud’s applied AI tools, insights, and frameworks to help them accelerate AI adoption within their organizations.

#3- New AI partners for Dubai CommerCity: Digital-focused freezone Dubai CommerCity has signed strategic partnerships with trade-focused AI companies qeen.ai and Portmind to accelerate digital commerce and trade operations, according to a press release. The partnership with qeen.ai will embed AI-driven automation and solutions into the freezone’s ecosystem, supporting e-commerce SMEs and high-growth brands in scaling operations and boosting competitiveness. Meanwhile, Portmind’s Sail platform will automate customs documentation and regulatory compliance, helping businesses speed up clearances, improve shipment visibility, and lower operational costs.

DEBT-

Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Bank of Sharjah’s long-term issuer default rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook, according to a report by the agency. Fitch attributed the rating to the bank’s potential to access support from UAE authorities, and highlighting its improved operating conditions, recovery of problem assets, better risk management, and accelerated growth. It also affirmed the bank’s viability rating at B-, emphasizing the issues caused by potentially problematic legacy assets and the resulting restraint on capital.

Why “silver” economies aren’t necessarily bad for growth

A silver economy is on the rise, shaped by a slowdown in worldwide population growth, a drop in fertility, and extended lifespans. The IMF’s 2025 World Economic Outlook (pdf) outlines new economic prospects that healthier seniors can unlock as the global age structure shifts, despite challenges to labor supply and public finances.

An aging world: Most economies are approaching or have crossed their “demographic turning point” — where the working-age population begins to decline. By 2035, all advanced and major emerging economies will be on the other side of this shift, with most low-income countries following by 2070. By the end of the century, the worldwide average age is set to rise by 11 years.

Aging creeps in across the world’s youngest regions too: While the biggest advanced economies and emerging markets in Europe and Asia have the largest share of older population, the younger Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East are also on track to see a steep rise in older people. The more fertility falls and lifespans extend, the smaller the window to reap demographic dividends — especially in low-income countries.

Healthier, not just older: Today’s 70-year-olds match the cognitive sharpness of 53-year-olds in 2000, fueling longer careers, delayed retirements, and higher earnings. Better health has raised the chances of seniors participating in the labor force by 20 percentage points. However, challenges like outdated skills, pension limitations, and age discrimination persist for older age groups.

Aging is expected to weigh down in growth: These global demographic shifts are set to slow economic growth and strain public finances over the long term. Overall output growth is expected to decline by 1.1 percentage points through 2050 and by 2 percentage points through 2100, compared to 2016–2018 levels. Output per capita growth is also projected to slow by 0.6 percentage points through 2050 and by 1.8 points by century’s end.

Regional growth implications: Advanced economies like Japan face contraction risks due to aging, while the US and Canada maintain modest growth due to favorable demographics. China will see a sharp growth deceleration (down 2.7 percentage points in 2025-2050), while India, though initially insulated with a 0.7 point slowdown, will face increasing pressure post-2050.

AND- These trends are expected to pressure interest rates downward and threaten debt sustainability. Aging populations save more, invest less, and strain pension and healthcare systems.

Balancing capital and labor: Global aging could also shift capital from older, high-savings nations to younger, capital-scarce ones. At the same time, younger workers might move to aging economies to fill workforce gaps, providing a potential balance in global labor markets and capital flows.

How can countries adapt? Promoting preventive healthcare and reducing risk factors can improve rates of healthy aging. Pension reform and adaptable workplaces, as well as bridging labor market gaps by addressing age, gender, and income disparities, would promote longer working lives. Economies could also boost fertility by supporting childcare and flexible work arrangements that balance career and family. Meanwhile, productivity could be increased by leveraging AI and biotechnology.

The “silver” lining: Measures like increasing senior participation rates, delaying retirement, and narrowing gender gaps could raise annual growth by up to 0.6 percentage points annually through 2050. This would offset almost 75% of the demographic drag during this period, with some countries in Europe and India could see even higher growth.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed this morning, as investors carefully weigh trade developments and new stimulus measures from China. Japan’s Nikkei is up 0.8%, and Hang Seng (Hong Kong) is slightly up 0.1%, while Shanghai Composite is down 0.2%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are pointing to a lower opening ahead of a packed earnings week that has Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft (among other heavyweights) on the docket.

ADX	9,392	-0.4% (YTD: -0.3%)
DFM	5,163	-0.6% (YTD: -0.1%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,234	-0.3% (YTD: +1.7%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.1% o/n	4.1% 1 yr
TASI	11,756	-0.1% (YTD: -2.3%)
EGX30	31,855	+0.7% (YTD: +7.1%)
S&P 500	5,525	+0.7% (YTD: -6.1%)
FTSE 100	8,415	+0.1% (YTD: +3.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,154	+0.8% (YTD: +5.3%)
Brent crude	USD 66.87	+0.5
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.94	+0.2%
Gold	USD 3298.40	-1.5%
BTC	USD 94,401.20	+0.1% (YTD: +0.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM fell 0.6% last Friday on turnover of AED 436.8 mn. The index is down 0.1% YTD.

In the green: Al Salam Bank (+3.1%), Amanat Holdings (+2.9%) and Union Properties (+2.7%).

In the red: Emirates Investment Bank (-9.5%), National General Ins. (-7.5%) and National Cement (-6.8%).

Over on the ADX, the index fell 0.4% on turnover of AED 1.5 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.3%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Edge Group’s naval arm Abu Dhabi Ship Building’s board of directors approved the distribution of AED 40.3 mn in dividends for 2024, according to a press release (pdf).

PLUS- Two contracts approved: The board also approved two transactions, including Edge Commercial’s execution of maintenance works for naval defense vessels for Kuwait for a total value of AED 495.25 mn, and Emirates Advanced Research & Technology Holding’s construction of military naval vessels for Nigeria for USD 128.53 mn

Invictus Investment Company’s general assembly approved a dividend payout of AED 33 mn for 2024, equivalent to 2.95 fils per share, according to a press release (pdf).

UAE discusses strengthening economic ties with Malta, Germany, and Belgium

The UAE and Malta held the first round of their Joint Committee meetings in Abu Dhabi, co-chaired by State Minister Ahmed bin Ali Al Sayegh and Maltese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Ian Borg, state news agency Wam reports. The talks focused on expanding bilateral trade cooperation in both the public and private sectors in key areas, including renewable energy, healthcare, digital economy, and tourism. The two sides also discussed collaboration on cybersecurity, judicial cooperation, and combating the financing of terrorism.

UAE, Germany discuss economic ties: Foreign Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi met with Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst on Friday to discuss boosting trade and investment cooperation, with a focus on technology, advanced manufacturing, and the green economy, Wam reports. The region in Germany contributes 20% of the country’s total GDP.

Sharjah + Belgium discuss cooperation: Sharjah and Belgium discussed expanding economic and investment cooperation during a Department of Government Relations in Sharjah-hosted dinner attended by diplomats, investors, and senior officials, Wam reports. Major Belgian companies in infrastructure, energy, finance, technology, industry, and services took part in discussions on avenues for collaboration.

CALENDAR

APRIL

25 April-11 May (Friday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai World Trade Center.

26 April-5 May (Saturday-Monday): Abu Dhabi International Book Fair (ADIBF), Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

28 April-1 May (Monday-Thursday): The Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center

28 April-2 May (Monday-Friday): The International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers' Associations (IFATCA) conference, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

29 April (Monday): Deadline to send comments and feedback on the FSRA proposal.

30 April-2 May (Wednesday -Friday): Fujairah International Conference of Adventures Tourism, Fujairah Adventures Centre

Signposted to happen sometime in April:

Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League, Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi

MAY

30 April - 1 May (Wednesday-Thursday): The Behavioural Exchange 2025 Conference (BX2025), the New York University Abu Dhabi.

1 May (Thursday): The UAE-Iraq Business Forum, Dubai.

5-6 May (Monday-Tuesday): The Governance of Emerging Technologies Summit (GETS 2025), St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, Abu Dhabi.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Ports Forum, Dubai.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

6-8 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Centre.

9-10 May (Friday-Saturday): BNI UAE EXPO 2025, at the JAFZA One Convention Centre, Dubai.

12 May (Monday): EU regulators to make a decision on Adnoc’s Covestro takeover.

12-13 May (Monday-Tuesday): Dubai FinTech Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

13-16 May (Tuesday-Friday): International Union for Health Promotion and Education Conference, Abu Dhabi.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Annual HR Tech MENA, Dubai.

13–14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Low Carbon Fuels MENA Summit, Sheraton Dubai Creek Hotel & Towers, Dubai.

13-15 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Cabsat Middle East and Satellite Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

15 May (Thursday-Sunday): The Economy Middle East Summit, ADGM, Abu Dhabi.

15 May (Thursday): Dewa tender for pumping stations bids deadline.

15-18 May (Thursday-Sunday): The GLA Global Logistics Conference, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

16-18 May (Friday-Sunday): GISEC, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-22 May (Monday-Thursday): Make it in the Emirates, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

20 May (Tuesday): Dubai Business Forum, Hamburg, Germany.

20-21 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): The International Real Estate Investment Summit (IREIS 2025), Al Hamra International Exhibition and Conference Centre in Ras Al Khaimah.

20-22 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

23-25 May (Friday-Sunday): EuroLeague Final Four, Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi.

23 April (Wednesday): The HIMSS Executive Summit 2025, Jumeirah Emirates Towers.

26-28 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arab Media Summit, World Trade Center, Dubai.

27-29 May (Tuesday-Thursday): INDEX, Workspace, and The Hotel Show, Dubai World Trade Center.

28-31 May: The Emirates Agriculture Conference and Exhibition, Adnec Center Al Ain, Abu Dhabi.

30 May (Friday): Arafat Day.

31 May-2 June (Saturday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

JUNE

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Middle East Rail, Dubai World Trade Center.

27 June (Friday): Islamic New Year.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

JULY

6-7 July (Sunday-Monday): BRICS Summit, Rio de Janeiro.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): DigiHealth exhibition, World Trade Center, Dubai.

8-19 September (Monday-Wednesday): WHX-Tech Expo, Dubai World Trade Centre.

12-14 September (Friday-Sunday): The International Real Estate and Investment Show, Abu Dhabi.

16-17 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mohammed Bin Rashid Leadership Forum, Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development, Dubai.

OCTOBER

1-2 October (Thursday-Friday):World Green Economy Summit (WGES), Dubai World Trade Centre.

30 September - 2 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The Water, Energy, Technology, and Environment Exhibition (WETEX), Dubai World Trade Centre.

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Symposium on the System of Radiological Protection, the Ritz-Carlton Abu Dhabi, Grand Canal.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

15-17 November (Saturday-Monday): Myplant & Garden Middle East Green Expo, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow 2025, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): BTC Mena Conference, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): BRIDGE media summit, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)
The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Global Implementation Support Symposium, Abu Dhabi.
Universal Postal Congress 2025, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in the fall of 2025:

2025 Games of the Future, Dubai.
ICOM General Conference 2025, Dubai

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.
12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference 2026, UAE
9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit’s fourth edition, UAE

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime between 2027 and 2029:

The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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