Al Habtoor to sue Lebanese authorities over losses, while Mubadala shuffles healthcare portfolio

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Italian president lands in UAE today + XRG raises stake in Rio Grande LNG project

Good morning, lovely people. The reshuffling of Emirati firms’ investments overseas is an ongoing theme this week — as we report in today’s issue, Al Habtoor is now suing Lebanese authorities for losses it has incurred due to measures that blocked its access to deposited funds in the country.

Meanwhile, sovereign wealth fund Mubadala sold its stake in US healthcare platform Arcadia, and bought into another US healthcare startup, L-Nutra, as well as agreed to set up a JV with the firm in Abu Dhabi.

It’s also busy on the energy front this morning, with Adnoc’s XRG upping its stake in the Rio Grande LNG project in Texas, Mark Cables wrapping up a thermal power plant project in Burkina Faso, and Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum securing supply agreements for oil in Kurdistan.

Happening today

Italian president lands for a state visit: President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will meet with Italian President Sergio Mattarella today during his state visit to the UAE aimed at strengthening bilateral cooperation and investments, state news agency Wam reports.

Last year’s meeting made headlines, with the UAE announcing plans to inves t USD 40 bn in the country, covering areas like data centers, AI, defense tech, and energy. Italy is the UAE’s closest trading partner in the EU, with bilateral non-oil trade reaching USD 7.9 bn in 1H 2025, a 14.6% increase y-o-y, Foreign Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi previously said in a post on X.

Gulfood is underway, and runs until this Friday — but this time it’s taking place in two different venues: Dubai World Trade Center and Dubai Exhibition Center in Expo City. The massive F&B event will gather food distributors, producers, government officials, and investors and startups alike under, now, two roofs.

The Machines Can Think Summit wraps up today at Park Hyatt Abu Dhabi, drawing policymakers, researchers, and industry leaders to zero in on practical AI adoption and governance. Co-hosted by Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence and Polynome, the two-day forum ranged from national-scale AI infrastructure to climate and biotech applications, with a strong emphasis on responsible deployment frameworks.

WEATHER- The chilly, breezy weather continues today, with Dubai and Abu Dhabi seeing a high of 23°C and the former seeing a low of 16°C, and the capital seeing a low of 15°C.

Happening this week

Abu Dhabi is hosting the International Bar Association’s Annual Arbitration Day Conference on Wednesday and Thursday at the Rosewood Abu Dhabi. Law professionals and international industry players will meet for panel discussions on trends in the arbitration practice globally.

Plus: The World Customs Organization’s Technology Conference is on from Wednesday to Friday at the Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Our fellow photo nerds in the UAE will want to circle 29 January to 4 February on their calendars. This year’s Xposure, the global celebration of visual storytelling, features a who’s who of talented photographers — including our friend Romany Hafez, whose haunting analog work explores memory, presence, and sacred spaces. Romany will be giving a talk on Saturday, 31 January headlined Between Memory and Light. Don’t miss it if you love black and white photography as much as we do.

Watch this space

ENERGY — XRG doubles down on US LNG: Adnoc’s international investment arm will raise its stake in NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG facility by buying an additional 7.6% in trains four and five through Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), the acquisition vehicle under BlackRock, according to a statement. Each train is expected to produce around 6 mtpa, and both are already locked into long-term offtake agreements.

The move fulfills an option to buy into the fourth and fifth trains from the earlier agreement, which had seen XRG pick up an indirect 11.7% stake in the project’s first phase — comprising the first three liquefaction trains — via GIP. It had also secured a 20-year, 1.9 mtpa offtake from train four.

XRG aims to expand its US assets with a focus on bolstering gas and LNG capacity, and was eyeing some USD 9 bn worth of acquisitions of natural gas assets. Doubling down on LNG across the Atlantic, XRG was also exploring joining YPF and Italy’s Eni on a liquefied natural gas project in Argentina.

DATA CENTERS — Sharjah advances in the data race: Sharjah is eyeing more data infrastructure after a tripartite MoU was signed to explore building and operating data centers in the emirate, Wam reports. The pact links the Sharjah Communications Technology Authority (SCTA) with China’s DataCanvas International and AI Caravan to assess feasibility.

Why it matters: This puts Sharjah on a clearer path to becoming a data and AI hub alongside Abu Dhabi and Dubai. The move builds on groundwork laid in 2024, when Beeah Group, Khazna Data Centers, and SCTA agreed to develop the emirate’s largest Tier III facility at the Sharjah Freezone for Communication Technologies in Kalba, with additional sites planned across the emirate. Elsewhere, UAE-based XDS was commissioning a 1 MW data facility in Sharjah as of last summer, and Ajman is also seeing some of the action, with Khazna Data Centers working to complete its 100 MW QAJ1 facility this December.

MORE DATA CENTERS — Stargate UAE gets a price tag: Abu Dhabi’s flagship 5 GW Stargate UAE data center will cost USD 30 bn to develop, The National cites AI Minister Omar Al Olama as saying at the Machines Can Think summit. The revised figure is roughly 50% higher than last year’s USD 20 bn estimate, reflecting the scale and cost of sovereign AI infrastructure.

REMEMBER- Stargate is coming sooner: We reported earlier that G42’s buildout is accelerating, with the first 200 MW due online “in the next couple of months,” followed by 200-500 MW per quarter, alongside incoming advanced US chips under security guardrails — pulling timelines forward from earlier guidance that pointed to 3Q 2026.

ENERGY — Dubai-based Mark Cables Power Solutions completed construction on a USD 213 mn, 200 MW thermal power plant in Burkina Faso in six months, backing efforts to stabilize the country’s supply and cut reliance on imported power — in a market where only around a fifth of the population has electricity access and imports from coastal neighbors still plug the gap, Reuters reports.

The UAE has been deepening ties with Burkina Faso, including an agreement with Presight to advance the country’s digital transformation and military equipment talks.

DEBT — The UAE is issuing AED 550 mn in T-bonds with a 2031 maturity today, according to an Emirates NBD research note (pdf). The move is part of a broader strategy to raise AED 2.75 bn by the end of the year.

IN CONTEXT- The move follows a week where GCC credit markets remained remarkably resilient despite a rapid sell-off in Japanese and US government bonds, leaving regional markets momentarily oversupplied as global yields spike.

Data point

3k+ aircraft — that’s the cumulative order backlog held by the UAE, India, and Saudi Arabia with Airbus and Boeing, more than double the size of their current fleets, according to a statement from Avolon. Around 900 deliveries are expected over the next three years.

The global scene: While the aviation sector’s prospects are looking promising, thanks to persistent low fuel prices and growth from markets like the US, Europe, the Gulf, and India, a chronic undersupply of aircraft is weighing on the outlook. Airbus and Boeing’s total backlog now stands at more than 11 years, as the two — along with Embraer — saw 2k new orders last year. Going forward, the aircraft shortage is expected to lead to higher lease rates.

Still, the sector’s earnings are set to come in at USD 41 bn this year, which would make it the fourth year of gains as it looks to recover USD 182 bn in pandemic-induced losses.

PSA

Heads up, renters and landlords — Ajman is revamping how rental disputes are handled: The emirate has approved a new law establishing a Rental Dispute Resolution Center, replacing the existing committee and centralizing landlord-tenant cases across Ajman, including in freezones, Wam reports.

The center aims to streamline adjudication of disputes, issue rulings, clarify appeal routes, and strengthen juridical certainty as part of Ajman’s push to tighten real-estate governance and bolster investor confidence.

The big story abroad

It’s a mixed bag in the foreign business press this morning, with the USD’s slide, gas prices, and Trump’s latest tariff announcement all making headlines.

#1- Trump to hike tariffs on Seoul: US President Donald Trump announced he is hiking tariffs on South Korean autos, lumber, and pharma from 15% to 25%, blaming the country’s legislature for not implementing a trade agreement reached last November. The move strains Washington’s relationship with a major trade partner, as South Korea ranks among the top 10 sources of imports to the US, with over USD 150 bn worth of Korean goods heading to the US every year.

#2- The USD dipped to its lowest point since 2022 amid speculation about joint US-Japan efforts to boost the JPY, which jumped to a two-month high. Adding to pressure on the greenback are worries of another government shutdown and geopolitical tension pushing investors away from the currency and into safe haven assets.

#3- Musk’s X is in hot water with the EU: The European Union is investigating Elon Musk’s X following the generation of explicit images of women and children by its in-app AI chatbot Grok. The probe will ascertain whether or not the company properly mitigated risks of its chatbot’s functionalities in the bloc.

#4- US natural gas prices have soared to a three-year high after a major winter storm disrupted production across the country.

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Market watch

Opec+ is set to keep its pause on oil output increases through March at a meeting on Sunday, delegates told Reuters. The alliance froze planned hikes after a rapid unwinding of production cuts through last year — effectively holding supply flat for 1Q.

The expectation within the group is that policy stays unchanged, though some members caution that discussions have yet to formally begin, four delegates told Bloomberg. There is no sense so far that this month’s turbulence in Venezuela or Iran requires a response, one source said, while another flagged the caveat — a serious supply disruption could change the math fast and push Opec+ to open the taps.

IN CONTEXT- Brent prices peaked at around USD 66 / bbl this month, up from year-start lows on the back of supply setbacks in Kazakhstan.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.

Al Habtoor draws a line under Lebanon after USD 1.7 bn loss

Al Habtoor draws a line under Lebanon: UAE-based Al Habtoor Group said it will pursue court action against Lebanese authorities over USD 1.7 bn in losses tied to its investments, Reuters reports, citing an emailed statement.

What triggered it: Al Habtoor said its assets suffered “severe and sustained harm” due to measures imposed by Lebanese authorities and Banque du Liban, which it said blocked access to its deposited funds, as well as the failure to impose a formal law on capital controls for banks. A previously mooted large investment was contingent on forming a “strong and independent” government — conditions the group said were unmet. The escalation followed failed attempts to resolve matters amicably.

REMEMBER- This follows a clean exit: The group scrapped planned investments last year, moved to sell its holdings, and shelved projects including a TV channel and a studio city, citing instability and security risks.

In the national context: The threat lands as Lebanon struggles to restore investor confidence after its 2019 financial collapse froze deposits via informal capital controls. The group’s move marks a significant setback to the prospect of a reinjection of Gulf capital into Lebanon — once a key FX lifeline but now largely staying on the sidelines pending IMF-backed reforms.

A regional pivot elsewhere? As uncertainty plagued its plans in Lebanon, the group began exploring Syria. As we reported, Chairman Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor was set to visit Damascus in June with a senior delegation to assess cooperation with the Syrian government and investments across multiple sectors. This came amid a growing focus from Emirati players on Syria, including DP World, the National Investment Corporation, and AD Ports.

**DIG DEEPER ON AL HABTOOR- The group had been separately weighing a potential DFM listing of its hospitality arm, Habtoor Hospitality, and a decision was meant to have come before the end of last year. Last we heard, a dual listing and further spin-offs were in the cards, as it explored expansion into AI and tech. Nothing has been confirmed yet, and IPO plans have surfaced intermittently since 2012.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Mubadala makes another healthcare play with investment in L-Nutra, which will set up a JV in Abu Dhabi

Mubadala is reshuffling its healthcare portfolio in the US, with an exit from a four-year investment in Nizoral and Betadine owner Arcadia Consumer Healthcare, and a new investment in nutri-tech firm L-Nutra. The fund sold its stake in Arcadia to funds managed by Bansk Group, according to a statement, which did not disclose the value of the exit.

The sovereign wealth fund led a USD 36.5 mn Series D investment in nutri-tech firm L-Nutra, raising the total amount secured by the company during this round to USD 83.5 mn, according to L-Nutra CEO Joseph Antoun’s announcement on LinkedIn.

Mubadala and L-Nutra will together establish an Abu Dhabi-based JV to provide medical nutrition therapies to the MENA region, according to a press release. The partnership has already begun rolling out nutrition initiatives and education programs across seven schools in the emirate.

What does L-Nutra do? The company develops nutrition programs aimed at extending lifespan and managing chronic diseases, including the ProLon diet for longevity and targeted medical therapies.

Why it matters

Mubadala has been beefing up its biotech and healthcare portfolio, with a dedicated pharma arm — Mubadala Bio — and a focus on investing in biotech, particularly in the region. This helps boost the UAE’s efforts to localize healthcare technologies and pharma, Mubadala’s UAE Investment Platform’s Ismail Abdulla said. The sovereign wealth fund also made a sizable reinvestment in US pharma manufacturer PCI Pharma Services and participated in a USD 183 mn Series C financing round for US biotech ElectraTherapeutics.

The move to not only invest in the company but partner with it to launch a JV in the emirate is part of a familiar playbook. Abu Dhabi’s ADQ similarly agreed with Sotheby’s to expand to Abu Dhabi after it acquired a minority stake in the firm for USD 1 bn.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What Dubai crypto firms should expect now that crypto suitability is their responsibility

With the DFSA dismantling its recognized crypto token list and shifting the responsibility for token suitability assessments onto firms, the crypto market in Dubai is now more open than ever. The good news is that it makes crypto much more scalable and allows firms to become more innovative in their investments and expansion of their crypto strategies, but with that comes a catch: A much larger compliance burden for firms.

We spoke with several law experts to break down what the move means for the industry at large, and how firms will need to pivot their compliance strategies to bring them in tune with the changes.

The amendments represent “a meaningful liberalization of the DIFC crypto market” rather than a simple transfer of regulatory friction, Clyde & Co’s fintech and financial services team — Partner Tom Bicknell, Senior Associate Barkha Doshi, and Trainee Solicitor Afreen Abedin — wrote in a note to EnterpriseAM UAE.

The DFSA’s centralized token list had acted as a “bottleneck for innovation,” the team at Clyde & Co and CEO and founder of SAJA Legal Consultants Carolina Rios both agreed. Allowing firms to assess tokens based on their own business models and client profiles removes a structural constraint without weakening supervisory oversight, Clyde & Co added.

Are firms ready? The move in itself reflects the crypto sector’s maturity, Rios told EnterpriseAM UAE. “At this stage of market development, regulated firms are sufficiently equipped to identify, assess, and document suitability criteria — and, crucially, to bear direct accountability for the products and services they offer to clients,” Rios said.

What firms need to do

The focus should now be on the quality of internal documentation and governance, M&Co Associate Pedro Seabra Caeiro wrote.

The ingredients making up a strong suitability assessment? It would need to include an analysis of the token’s characteristics as well as its technical infrastructure, governance structures, founder identity and experience, on-chain traceability, concentration of holdings, and regulatory status across jurisdictions, Rios said. Clarification on market liquidity and trading history are also important to include, according to Caeiro.

Other indicators, such as prior approvals by other regulators and the robustness of AML and compliance controls, are also an important cross-jurisdictional benchmark for assessing crypto projects, Rios added.

Crucially, DFSA-ready assessments must read as “defensible” and “audit-ready” rather than checklists, Clyde & Co added. The firm said supervisors are likely to scrutinize whether firms can evidence how conclusions were reached, who conducted the review, what expertise was relied on, and how negative indicators were weighed — particularly where firms proceed despite identifiable risks.

Suitability assessments will also change according to what your role is in the industry, M&Co noted. For example, exchanges would need to document tokens’ liquidity, market history, and operational resilience, while custodians would have to assess technological risks, governance, and client suitability.

Another key change in the DFSA framework: Crypto caps were removed for DIFC funds

While the DFSA has removed caps on the amount funds can invest in crypto tokens, this comes with implicit constraints like suitability assessments and disclosure requirements, though it’s not clear how often they are required to file returns.

Fund managers will still need to justify allocations, but the boundaries have shifted from percentages to principles, the Clyde & Co team said.

Where enforcement is most likely to land, and how

Token selection failures would most likely be the first enforcement focus, Clyde & Co said, arguing that suitability has become the “foundation of the new regime” and is where evidentiary gaps will be most visible. Governance and disclosure failures may follow, the firm said, but token assessment is where the DFSA has most clearly shifted responsibility.

High-traction crypto narratives with complex suitability assessments would be the most vulnerable to early regulatory pressures — think real-world asset tokenization, memecoins, decentralized physical infrastructure networks, and AI-driven crypto agents, Rios said. These segments see heightened investor interest but also come with fresh governance and technical risks, raising the bar for defensible suitability determinations, she added.

Non-compliance with DFSA rules can expose firms to fines, public censure, and supervisory restrictions, Caeiro said. DFSA issued some USD 2.5 mn in fines in 2024 alone, along with cases that have led to USD 720.9k in penalties and USD 186k in individual fines.

The bottom line

Boards now face higher reputational and economic stakes when it comes to crypto exposure and compliance. Superficial suitability assessments can trigger regulatory sanctions, investor losses, and lasting reputational damage, while on the other side of the coin, rigorous, defensible frameworks build trust, attract institutional capital, and signal market leadership, Rios said.

Rigorous, defensible frameworks will become a competitive differentiator moving forward, especially in a market where regulatory credibility remains uneven, Clyde & Co noted.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Emirates NBD closes out 2025 with soaring topline,bottomline

EmiratesNBD reported a 27% y-o-y rise in net income to AED 5.1 bn for 4Q 2025, according to its financial statements (pdf). Total income climbed 12% y-o-y to AED 12.7 bn during the quarter, with net interest income up 13% y-o-y to AED 9.7 bn

For 2025, the bank saw a 4% y-o-y jump in net income to AED 24 bn,“supported by healthy momentum across business segments and geographies,” Vice Chairman Hesham Abdulla Al Qassim said in the lender’s annual report (pdf). Total income was up 12% y-o-y to come in at AED 49.3 bn, which was driven by significant asset growth, offsetting the impact of lower interest rates. Net interest income rose to AED 35.5 bn during the year, marking a 10% y-o-y increase.

Full year results exceeded expectations — analysts saw the lender reporting a net income of AED 22.8 bn for the year, Reuters reports, citing data by LSEG.

Emirates Islamic

Emirates Islamic saw its net income rise 19% y-o-y to AED 3.3 bn last year, according to a press release. Total income jumped 11% y-o-y to AED 6 bn, “driven by higher funded and non-funded income.”

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Visa appoints senior VP for new UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar cluster

Visa has appointed Fadi Moukaddem (LinkedIn) as senior vice president and group country manager for the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar, following the creation of a dedicated Gulf sub-region within its Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa (CEMEA) operations, according to a press release. Visa’s CEMEA headquarters will be in the Emirates, with the new structure bringing the three markets under a single leadership mandate as it looks to boost local partnerships.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Moukaddem’s 12 years at Visa most recently included serving as SVP and CFO for its CEMEA operations, covering 87 markets. His background includes senior positions at PepsiCo International and Nokia Networks, and in his new role he will oversee Visa’s operations, strategy, and partnerships across the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar.

Sobha makes AED 50 bn residential play, Sharjah oil firms land Kurdistan supply agreements, Khansaheb snaps up Emsteel vertical, and Al Ghurair makes a new investment

Another major Dubai real estate project (this time by Sobha)

Sobha’s AED 50 bn master residential community: Luxury real estate developer Sobha Realty launched its most expansive mixed-use development yet, Sobha Sanctuary, a 37.5 mn sq ft community valued at AED 50 bn within Al Yufrah Dubai, Gulf News reports. The development will include 20k residential units, two international schools, a hospital, and retail spaces. The project will be rolled out in three phases and handovers are expected to begin from 3Q 2029.

In the big leagues: This latest move from Sobha — which wrapped up 2025 with AED 30 bn in sales — joins similar big-ticket developments in Dubai’s real estate landscape, including Binghatti’s recently launched AED 30 bn Meydan branded residence in partnership with Mercedes-Benz. Emaar is leading the investment spree as well, investing AED 100 bn for its Emaar Hills project. Dubai’s luxury segment has been doing much of the heavy lifting for the overall market, which saw AED 917 bn in transactions last year as sales outpaced stock replenishment.

Sharjah oil giants to supply oil for Kurdistan industry

Sharjah-based gas players DanaGas and Crescent Petroleum will supply natural gas to cement and steel producers in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), according to a press release (pdf). Along with partners from the Pearl Petroleum consortium, in which they each own a 35% stake, they inked 10-year gas sales agreements for 142 mmscf/d of gas from the Chemchemal field, starting 2H 2027.

The state of play: Development and appraisal is underway on the field, with the consortium having already committed USD 160 mn to drill three new wells and establish private sector-built pipelines to support supply chains, with expansion also in the cards.

BACKGROUND- The Chemchemal gas field is part of Pearl Petroleum’s Kurdistan operations, located close to the Khor Mor field, which recently kicked off operations after a USD 1.1 bn expansion added an extra 250 mmscf/d of production capacity, bringing its total output to around 750 mmscf/d.

Khansaheb Group acquires Anabeeb from Emsteel

Dubai-based engineering and construction firm Khansaheb Group acquired Anabeeb, a Saudi-based industrial pipe manufacturer, from Emsteel Building Materials, adding large-scale PVC and glass reinforced polymer pipe production to its portfolio, according to a press release. The transaction deepens Khansaheb’s exposure to infrastructure and pipe manufacturing — given Anabeeb owns the region’s biggest glass reinforced polymer pipe production facility — as it looks to offer a full stack of infrastructure solutions.

Al Ghurair digs deeper in high-value ingredients and protein production

Al Ghurair launches B2B brand + USD 20 mn meat coating facility: Al Ghurair Group’s subsidiary Al Ghurair Foods rolled out a food ingredients brand, Purl, targeting food manufacturers in the GCC, according to a press release. The brand offers clean ingredient products, including flours, liquid egg, meat coatings, and starchers, to regional manufacturers.

ALSO- The firm ploughed USD 20 mn into a new meat coating system facility with an annual capacity of 60k tonnes. The plant includes production lines for different types of coating, and aims to trim supply lead times for manufacturers by up to 50% as well as reduce dependence on imports.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Japanese government bond turmoil raises risks for JPY, carry trade, and US Treasuries

Tokyo’s bond market crash may be the end of easy money in Japan. The Japanese government bond (JGB) market, long a pillar of global stability, has entered a new era of unprecedented volatility, Bloomberg reports.

What happened? Last week, yields jumped 25 basis points in a single session — a rate that previously took months — signaling the end of Japan’s decades-long era of ultra-low rates.

Why the market snapped

The selloff was triggered by a relatively small amount of trading. Just USD 280 mn in turnover in ultra-long-dated JGBs sparked a USD 41 bn wipeout across the yield curve. Ultra-long maturities were hit the hardest, with about USD 170 mn traded in 30-year bonds and USD 110 mn in 40-year notes, yet yields jumped more than 25 basis points.

This volatility exposed a hollowed-out market: Years of Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention have thinned liquidity. With the BOJ and domestic life insurers stepping back, prices are increasingly set by marginal trades rather than deep market demand. “This is not a paradox: it is exactly what you expect in a market where depth is thin, dealer balance sheets are constrained, and prices are set by the marginal trade rather than by volume-weighted averages,” said Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities.

The pressure stems from a perfect storm of rising inflation and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal plans, which have shown “disregard toward the yield movements” ahead of the Feb. 8 snap election, according to Shinji Kunibe of Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. Investors fear higher spending will worsen Japan’s already heavy debt burden of about 230% of GDP, creating a “Truss moment” with the currency down and long-end yields getting “a little out of control,” said Ugo Lancioni of Neuberger Berman.

The global ripple effect

The shock rippled through global markets, already pressuring US Treasuries. Goldman Sachs estimates that every 10 basis points of a Japan-specific bond shock lifts US yields by two to three points.

Why it matters: Rising yields threaten the USD 450 bn JPY-funded carry trade — a “bastion” of the global economy — where investors borrow in low-rate JPY to invest in higher-yielding assets, said Amova Asset Management’s Naomi Fink. If the JPY slides further, Japan may sell its US Treasury reserves to defend the currency — exporting its “Japan problem” to Western markets. Albert Edwards of Société Générale told the Financial Times that Western politicians should “quiver with fear” as Japan turns off the liquidity tap that has suppressed global bond yields for years.

Japan reax

The Bank of Japan’s response has so far been a game of “whack-a-mole.” While the BOJ signaled it may buy bonds to stabilize markets — helping debt rebound — it triggered another sharp selloff in the JPY. Rates were held steady on Friday, though inflation forecasts were raised, suggesting the pressure won’t ease soon. “It’s a new era,” said Masayuki Koguchi of Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management. “This is just the beginning — there’s a chance that bigger shocks will happen.”

Looking ahead

The long-term concern is the “repatriation” of Japanese capital. Higher domestic yields are prompting Japanese institutions to reconsider their USD 5 tn in overseas investments, risking a move back to JGBs that could drain global liquidity. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group has already signaled a shift: “I always loved foreign bond investment, but not anymore. Now it’s JGBs,” said Arihiro Nagata, the group’s global markets head.

Ignoring market signals could worsen dysfunction, investors warn. With overseas investors now accounting for 65% of monthly cashbond trading (up from 12% in 2009), the JGB market is in a “fragile transition phase,” and fast-moving foreign capital is amplifying volatility, James Athey of Marlborough Investment Management and Stefan Rittner of Allianz Global Investors said.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Optimism appears to be the theme for markets this morning, as the anticipation for a wave of Big Tech earnings out later this week offsets the uncertainty triggered by President Trump announcing higher tariffs on South Korean goods and the imminent announcement of Powell’s replacement. Asia-Pacific markets are mostly in the green, with the Kospi leading gains, reversing earlier losses, which came as an immediate reaction to Trump’s announcement.

ADX	10,264	-0.2% (YTD: +2.7%)
DFM	6,446	-0.6% (YTD: +6.6%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	5,170	-0.5% (YTD: +6.5%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.6% o/n	3.7% 1 yr
TASI	11,271	0.0% (YTD: +7.4%)
EGX30	47,507	+1.4% (YTD: +13.6%)
S&P 500	6,950	+0.5% (YTD: +1.5%)
FTSE 100	10,149	+0.1% (YTD: +2.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,958	+0.2% (YTD: +2.9%)
Brent crude	USD 65.64	-0.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 6.80	+28.9%
Gold	USD 5,122	+2.1%
BTC	USD 88,198	+1.9% (YTD: +0.6%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	USD 3.75	+0.3% (YTD: -0.8%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	151.61	+0.2% (YTD: -0.2%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	16.15	+0.4% (YTD: +7.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.21% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.3 bn. The index is up 2.7% YTD.

In the green: E7 Group PJSC Warrants (+15.0%), Ras Alkhaima National Ins. (+14.8%), and Oman & Emirates Investment Holding (+8.9%).

In the red: Ins. House (-7.7%), 2PointZero (-5.7%), and RAK Company for White Cement & Construction Materials. (-4.9%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.6% on turnover of AED 328.5 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.5%.

Round two of Ukraine, Russia, US talks in Abu Dhabi on Sunday

Another round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations will take place in Abu Dhabi later this week, also involving the US as an intermediary, following on from trilateral talks held over the weekend in the capital, CNN reports. US mediators said that while progress had been made, a breakthrough has yet to be reached. Fighting from both sides continues, and issues like security assurances and territory disputes remain as sticking points. The next round of negotiations is set to begin on Sunday.

CALENDAR

JANUARY

26-30 January (Monday-Friday): Gulfood, Dubai Exhibition Center and Dubai World Trade Center.

26-27 January (Monday-Tuesday): Machines Can Think Summit, Abu Dhabi Park Hyatt Saadiyat.

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 January – 7 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, International Tennis Center, Zayed Sports City.

FEBRUARY

Signposted to happen sometime this month: Investopia, Lagos, Nigeria.

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit, Dubai.

4 February (Wednesday): Ministerial dialogue for Pax Silica members, Washington, DC.

4 February (Wednesday): Investors Summit, ADGM, Abu Dhabi.

4-5 February (Wednesday-Thursday): PropTech Connect Middle East, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

4-5 February (Wednesday-Thursday): MRO Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

4-6 February (Wednesday-Friday): Arab Actuarial Conference, Millennium Plaza Downtown Hotel, Dubai.

9-11 February (Monday-Wednesday): AIBC Eurasia, Dubai Festival City, Dubai.

11 February (Wednesday): Family Office Summit, Park Hyatt Dubai, Dubai.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 February (Monday-Friday): World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Top Advisors and Investors Summit, Abu Dhabi.

MARCH

31 March – 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March – 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

MAY

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

JUNE

15 June – 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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