Good morning, lovely people. We’re two-thirds of the way into Ramadan, and there’s still no news slowdown in sight.
We have a deluge of news for you this morning, led by Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ’s USD 25 bn investment alongside Energy Capital Partners in US data centers. We also have news of Dubai’s land department rolling out a pilot phase for real estate tokenization — a first across the region — as well as a new multi-bn JV set up by state defense firm Edge. There’s also more regulatory and legislative updates, as well as fresh data on the construction sector in the UAE last year. But first…
The Central Bank of the UAE kept interest rates unchanged in line with the US Federal Reserve following its meeting yesterday, according to a statement (pdf). The base rate applicable to the overnight deposit facility remains at 4.4%, while the rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity was kept unchanged at 50 bps above the base rate for all standing credit facilities. We have more on the Fed’s decision in Planet Finance, below.
So, when do we eat? Maghrib is at 6:33pm today in Dubai and 6:37pm in Abu Dhabi. You’ll have until fajr prayers at 5:05am in Dubai and 5:09am in Abu Dhabi tomorrow to finish your suhoor.
☀️WEATHER- It’s getting hot: Dubai will see highs of 35°C during the day, before cooling to 23°C overnight, according to our favorite weather app and the National Center of Meteorology's forecast (pdf). Temperatures will hit highs of 29°C in Abu Dhabi during the day, and a low of 21°C at night.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Musk’s xAI, Nvidia join AI Infrastructure Partnership backed by Abu Dhabi’s MGX: Elon Musk’s xAI and chipmaker Nvidia have joined BlackRock, Microsoft, and MGX’s USD 30 bn AI Infrastructure Partnership, according to a statement. The group, which was launched last September formerly as the Global AI Infrastructure Investment Partnership, and includes MGX as a general partner, aims to invest in data centers and energy projects, primarily in the US and allied countries, while targeting an additional USD 70 bn in debt financing.
The AI fund has attracted “significant capital and partner interest” since its launch, the statement said.
#2- Dubai’s rapid vehicle growth intensifies traffic crisis, sparks policy debate: With vehicle growth in Dubai soaring past 8% — quadruple the global average — the UAE government is taking a hard look at how to unclog its roads. The Energy and Infrastructure Ministry is proposing stricter car ownership rules and ramping up public transport options to help ease congestion, with Energy and Infrastructure Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei calling the rapid rise in vehicles “abnormal” and pushing for updated policies to address the rapid increase in vehicles, particularly on the busy Dubai-Sharjah corridor, according to a Federal National Council statement.
The statements came in response to concerns raised by Federal National Council member Adnan Al Hammadi about worsening traffic, noting that some workers leave home before dawn prayers and return late in the evening just to avoid peak traffic, while others have opted to rent temporary accommodations in Dubai to reduce commuting time.
Currently, around 1.2 mn cars enter Dubai daily, up from 850k just 18 months ago. For many commuters from Sharjah, this translates to long hours on the road — some spending the equivalent of 60 workdays per year stuck in traffic. Meanwhile, vehicle numbers across Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, and Umm Al Quwain collectively surged by 23%, with Dubai issuing approximately 4k new driver’s licenses each day.
What’s next? The issue will be addressed at UAE government meetings to align federal and local efforts, with pressure mounting for legislation that goes beyond infrastructure fixes.
#3- UAE customs to roll out new central tariff system: The Federal Authority for Identity and Citizenship, Customs and Ports Security (ICA) is set to launch a new electronic, integrated central customs tariff system effective 1 April, Wam reports. The customs tariff system aims to enhance compliance and reduce operation completion time, and comes as part of the Emirates Customs Platform project — which enables the classification and updating of goods and custom duties through an electronic portal.
#4- EY sees UAE banks maintaining “robust growth” in 2025: EY expects banks in the UAE to see strong growth in their lending activities this year, driven by “relaxed monetary policies and a favorable economic environment,” EY said in a press release. Firm credit demand and slashed borrowing costs are expected to help bolster credit growth during 2025, the press release reads.
The UAE’s performance will contribute to strong banking performance for the GCC at large: EY sees GCC banks continuing to “benefit from strong capital levels” in 2025, with credit growth set to be driven by a strong project pipeline “with aggregate contract awards driven by infrastructure development, especially in KSA and the UAE.”
Lower interest rates could bring down profitability margins: S&P Global expects Emirati banks to see a slight dip in profitability margins in 2025 on the back of declining interest rates. Lending is set to continue to grow, however, as monetary policy eases, while losses will remain low on the back of strong asset quality, backed by a strong economic environment. Meanwhile, Moody’s similarly adjusted its outlook on the UAE’s banking sector from positive to stable, citing expected declines in profitability as interest rates fall and corporate taxes rise.
UPDATE-
ADX-listed real estate investment firm Eshraq Investment confirmed it bought AED 50 mn worth of mandatory convertible bonds (MCBs) in Dubai-listed investment platform Shuaa Capital in a bourse disclosure (pdf), a few days after the two companies had issued conflicting statements regarding Eshraq’s participation in the offering. Eshraq had earlier this week insisted it was still reviewing the subscription proposal, while Shuaa Capital had claimed it had already received a binding commitment from the investment firm.
The move, which is part of an AED 274 mn MCBs offering, is pending regulatory approval, after which Shuaa will hike its capital by the same amount and list the converted shares on the DFM, according to a disclosure (pdf) from Shuaa. Shuaa Capital also confirmed it secured investments from Al Baher Real Estate Development and United Motors & Heavy Equipment.
PSAs-
#1- Freezone-based companies expanding to mainland Dubai will still be subject to a 9% corporate tax, Al Khaleej reports, citing Aurifer Middle East Tax partner Nirav Rajput. Currently, there is a 0% corporate tax rate on qualifying income from transactions and activities within freezones, according to the Federal Tax Authority’s bulletin (pdf).
ICYMI- A resolution was passed earlier in the week allowing freezone-based businesses to expand into mainland Dubai more easily. Businesses can apply for a license from Dubai’s Department of Economy and Tourism (DET) to scale up their operations across the emirate and outside of Dubai, provided they maintain separate financial records for freezone and non-freezone activities.
#2- Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) completed rapid traffic improvements to the Sheikh Zayed road close to the Dubai Financial Center, it said in a press release. The developments increased the road’s capacity to 25% to accommodate 3.2k vehicles per hour, and cut down journey time from five minutes to two minutes. Traffic merging distance between Al Khalil Road and the Financial Center street is also down, reducing journey time as well.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
Israel launched a limited ground operation in Gaza on Wednesday, with troops reoccupying areas outside population centers, the Israeli army said in a post on X. Troops have expanded their control over parts of the Netzarim Corridor, which runs east to west across the strip “in order to expand the security zone and to create a partial buffer between northern and southern Gaza.” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a “final warning” just before the operation began, saying residents in battle zones would soon be evacuated again unless Hamas freed the remaining hostages and was removed from power.
The operation comes after Israel resumed strikes on Gaza earlier this week, killing hundreds of Palestinians and marking the deadliest day in the strip in over two months and the collapse of January’s ceasefire agreement. Hamas condemned the new ground operation as a “dangerous violation” of the ceasefire agreement. (Bloomberg | Reuters | BBC | New York Times)
AND- Fed keeps rates unchanged: The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as policymakers grapple with heightened economic uncertainty amid the Trump administration’s tariff-heavy trade policies. We have the details in this morning’s Planet Finance. (Reuters | CNBC | Bloomberg | AP | BBC | CNN)
MARKET WATCH-
Dubai crude benchmark strengthens as Brent flips to rare discount: Dubai swaps surged against Brent crude futures this week, with the Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps flipping to a discount of USD 0.02 per barrel on Wednesday, its first drop below parity since November 2023, per LSEG data, Reuters reports. The discount later widened to USD 0.14, trade sources said, reflecting robust Middle East sour crude demand and weaker European refining activity.
Brent’s slump against Dubai highlights subdued European refinery runs during maintenance season and soft margins in Northwest Europe, Onyx Capital’s Harry Tchilligurian noted. Meanwhile, heightened bidding for Middle East grades in the Dubai trading window bolstered the regional benchmark. The shift has opened arbitrage opportunities for Atlantic Basin sweet crude to flow to Asia, a trader said. Dated Brent-Dubai spreads for April-June contracts also traded at discounts.
This might not last long: Though recent price tightness suggests medium sour crude is now the “center of the strength in the global crude oil market” currently, Opec’s plans to hike production starting next month will likely weigh on prices, SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said.
Oil prices fell yesterday: Brent crude fell yesterday 0.2% to USD 70.43 per barrel and WTI dipped to USD 66.6, paring steeper losses earlier in the session, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Fujairah’s marine fuel sales slumped to a record low of 554k cbm in February, Al Arabiya reports, citing data from Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ). Low-sulphur marine fuel sales dipped 7.2% m-o-m to around 412 cbm in February, while high sulphur marine fuel fell 2% m-o-m to 143 cbm. Marine fuel offloading at Singapore and Fujairah also dropped 9% y-o-y to 9.78 mn cbm in the first two months of this year, Reuters reports.
In context: The port — along with other global top refueling hubs — is facing the impacts of geopolitical uncertainty as escalating tariffs loom over the international shipping market.“The slowdown in marine fuel demand is a reflection of the broader uncertainty in global trade…as shipping firms are optimising their operations more cautiously to navigate volatile conditions,” said Container xChange CEO Christian Roeloffs.
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