Good morning, wonderful people. We’re sensing an end-of-year slowdown coming, but we don’t want to jinx it.

Despite the slightly calmer news cycle, we have big news of Adnoc’s new low-carbon energy investment arm setting up a JV with energy giant BP to invest in natural gas assets, with an initial focus on Egypt. Plus: DP World’s Drydocks secured an infrastructure project in Germany, and we have a healthy dose of investment news.

WEATHER- Expect another partly cloudy day in Dubai, with a high of 25°C and an overnight low of 20°C. It’s chillier in Abu Dhabi, where temperatures peak at a cloudy 23°C, before cooling to 21°C overnight.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The UAE is expected to be a “very active” issuer in the debt market next year as issuers look to refinance debt that is due to mature soon, continuing the momentum from this year, fixed income money manager at Arqaam Capital Fady Gendy told Bloomberg. UAE banks and companies face a significant maturity wall of approximately USD 19.2 bn in USD debt due in 2025, which is expected to prompt large refinancing efforts from both sovereign and corporate entities, Gendy told the news outlet.

The Abu Dhabi government and the federal government are both expected to be “opportunistic” and tap debt markets again this year, after the UAE issued a USD 1.5 bn eurobond in June this year and Abu Dhabi raised USD 5 bn in its first eurobond issuance in three years. Ras Al Khaimah is also expected to take advantage of its recent credit rating upgrade with new issuances.

The country is coming off of a record year for debt issuances, with USD 38.4 bn in USD-denominated debt issued this year, up 54% y-o-y and marking the highest level since the Covid spending spree in 2020, according to data it compiled. The growth was primarily driven by federal and emirate-level government bonds who were looking to take advantage of tight spreads and maintain their presence in the market — a shift from the previous year when corporate borrowing was more prominent.

#2- Adia closer to acquiring a stake in Haldiram Snacks? A Blackstone-led consortium, which is set to include Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) and Singapore’s GIC, was picked as the preferred bidder for a minority stake in India’s largest snacks manufacturer Haldiram Snacks, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are in the know. The consortium is in discussions to acquire a 20% stake in Haldiram for USD 1.6 bn, which would value the company at about USD 8 bn.

Background: The consortium was initially eyeing a 51% stake for USD 4.8 bn, valuing the company at USD 8.5 bn. Talks had stalled due to what Blackstone said were disagreements over Halidram’s valuation.

It could take as little as a few weeks before an agreement is reached, although other bidders, such as Singapore’s Temasek Holdings, are also pursuing stakes in the company, the sources said. The Agarwal family, which owns Haldiram, has been exploring various options for the business, including a public offering and a majority stake sale, initially seeking a valuation as high as USD 12 bn.

#3- Dubai’s aerospace platform Mohammed Bin Rashid Aerospace Hub is investing AED 1.5 bn in infrastructure in 2025 and 2026 to meet rising demand, the hub’s CEO Tahnoon Saif told Emarat Al Youm. Some 70 companies now operate in the hub, with 50 more set to join, lining up some AED 4 bn in investments.

About Mohammed Bin Rashid Aerospace Hub: The aerospace hub is the first freezone dedicated to aviation in the region, launched through urban development platform Dubai South.

#4- The UAE’s consumer spending is expected to rise by 4.3% y-o-y in 2025, with consumer price inflation to increase by 2.5%, according to Mastercard Economics Institute’s Economic Outlook 2025 report (pdf). The institute sees the UAE’s economy growing 5% next year.

#5- The UAE’s payments industry is expected to draw USD 27.3 bn in annual revenues by 2028, up from USD 18.8 bn in 2023, according to estimates made by the US consulting firm Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in a recent report, a press release showed.

Transaction volumes in the UAE are also projected to rise, with BCG penciling in 3.1 bn transactions by 2028, up from 1.7 bn in 2023. A shift from cash-based transactions to digital payments — thanks to government initiatives and a boom in fintech solutions — will drive growth in the industry, BCG said.

#6- The UAE will launch its Thuraya 4 satellite this month, and the MbZ-SAT next month, state news agency Wam cites Dubai Crown Prince and Supreme Space Council Chairman Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum as saying at the council’s first ever meeting.

The UAE has invested AED 40 bn in its space sector so far. Private sector contributions reached 44.3% of total investments, with the number of companies operating in the sector growing 29% y-o-y in 2024. The country’s R&D spending rose 14.8% y-o-y this year.

DATA POINTS-

Gross assets at UAE banks rose 0.5% m-o-m to AED 4.4 tn at the end of September, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s latest monetary and banking developments report (pdf). Meanwhile, gross credit grew 2.3% m-o-m to AED 2.2 tn during the month. This growth was driven by a 1.6% rise in domestic credit and a 6.9% increase in external credit. Domestic credit expansion included increases in credit to the government sector (0.4%), public sector entities (2.7%), private sector (1.5%), and non-banking financial institutions (1.8%).

Total bank deposits grew 0.8% m-o-m to AED 2.7 tn at the end of September, backed by a 0.8% increase in resident deposits and a 0.5% rise in non-resident deposits.

PSAs-

#1- The Human Resources and Emiratisation Ministry (MoHRE) launched a basic health ins. package aimed at private sector employees across the UAE, according to a MoHRE statement. The package — costing employers AED 320 per year, and requiring outpatient co-payment of 25% and inpatient co-payment of 20%, with caps per payment visit — includes seven hospitals, 46 clinics, and 45 pharmacies. It offers coverage for individuals aged 1 to 64 years old.

REMEMBER- Health ins. will be mandatory for all employees as of 1 January, across Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain, Ras Al Khaimah, and Fujairah — an extension from just Abu Dhabi and Dubai, which have laws in place making it mandatory for employees to have health ins. In Abu Dhabi, employers are also required to offer family members of employees ins. schemes. The new requirement applies to all employees with new work permits — and renewals of old permits — following 1 January.

#2- Tourists can now apply for VAT refunds via authorized e-commerce platforms before their purchases are shipped under a new system launched by the Federal Tax Authority, Wam reports. Refund requests are finalized once the tourist’s identity is verified during delivery or order fulfilment.

#3- Truck movement is partially restricted on Emirates Road: The Roads and Transport Authority and Dubai Police have restricted truck movement between Al Awir Street and Sharjah on Emirates Road during peak hours between 5:30pm and 8:00pm starting 1 January, according to an RTA statement.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- It’s interest rate week in the United States, with the Federal Reserve set to hold its final meeting of the year today and tomorrow. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will follow suit on Thursday.

Expect the Fed to sound a note of caution. The expectation since Donald Trump cruised to victory last month is now for fewer rate cuts over a longer period of time. A quarter-point cut this week seems fairly likely (though less so than before US voters returned The Donald to office), but the swaps market is pricing in just 75 basis points worth of cuts by next September, suggesting we could see as few as two 25 bps cuts next year. The FT has more on what to expect from the three meetings.

#2- Aims kicked off yesterday and runs through Friday at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The conference focuses on pure and applied analysis, differential equations, and dynamical systems, covering a wide range of applications in fields such as biology, chemistry, physics, finance, and industrial mathematics.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a busy morning in the international pages, with a number of business and political headlines worth noting.

US forces struck Isis targets in Syria, killing 12 in a precision air raid aimed at disrupting the group’s resurgence. The strikes targeted “former Regime and Russian controlled areas ensuring pressure is maintained on Isis,” the US Centcom said following the attack. The Centcom vowed continued action to ensure Isis doesn’t exploit current instability in Syria. (Financial Times | AP)

OVER IN CANADA- Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland abruptly resigned after clashes with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over fiscal policy and US trade threats as president-elect Donald Trump prepares to step into the White House. Freeland’s exit, framed by some as a “leadership crisis” leaves Trudeau politically vulnerable as his government faces lower approval ratings ahead of next year’s elections. Her resignation follows the departure of several other key ministers, amplifying pressure on Trudeau to step down. Trudeau has tapped close friend Dominic LeBlanc to replace Freeland. (Reuters | New York Times | Financial Times | AP | The Economist | Washington Post | WSJ)

AND- Scholz loses confidence vote: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in the country’s parliament, putting the country on track for an early election next February. The vote follows the collapse of his coalition government after a fallout with his former finance minister. The country is now bracing for months of political uncertainty as campaigning intensifies, with the Friedrich Merz led conservative CDU leading the polls. (CNBC | Reuters | The Guardian | The Washington Post | France 24 | Bloomberg)

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