Adnoc’s XRG finally acquires Covestro

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: UAE launches strategic partnership talks with the EU + corporate tax credit refunds, explained

Good morning, friends — we’ve missed you. We’re back after a long publication holiday with the biggest updates from the past few days and the weekend.

The big story of the day is none other than Adnoc’s Covestro acquisition finally seeing the light — a major win for the UAE oil giant as it looks to boost its footprint overseas.

The M&A theme continues throughout the issue, with a mandatory tender offer from AD Ports that could see it secure up to 90% of Egypt’s Alexandria Container and Cargo Handling Company. Meanwhile, in India, two potential transactions from UAE firms look to be dead in the water — as Masdar pulls its take-private transaction for Renew and Emirates NBD is said to be reconsidering its bid for a second Indian lender.

It’s also a busy issue on the investment front, with a big ticket investment into noon, a new real estate debt partnership by Mubadala, and a new massive Mercedez Benz-branded city planned by Binghatti.

Finally, on the macro front, we have the latest inflation figures for Dubai and a breakdown of what the IMF thinks of the UAE economy based on its Article IV consultation.

Watch this space-

TRADE: The UAE and EU formally launched negotiations on a strategic partnership agreement (SPA), according to joint statements here and here. This comes as trade talks we’ve previously reported on are now four rounds deep, with another round expected early next year. The SPA is positioned as groundwork for finalizing a future trade agreement.

Our take: Brussels and Abu Dhabi want more structure around an already sizable relationship. The SPA is meant to anchor cooperation across digitalization, AI, connectivity, research, and the green transition — areas where regulatory alignment, rather than tariff cuts alone, will shape cross-border capital and technology flows.

What to watch: Timing and substance. When the SPA actually lands, which regulatory barriers it meaningfully tackles, and how that alignment accelerates or complicates the path to a full FTA.

TAX: The UAE just cleared the way for taxpayers to monetize their tax incentives and claim tax credits as refunds through a new federal decree-law picked up by state news agency Wam. The order of settlement now starts with tax credits, followed by foreign tax credit, and then incentives and facilities.

Uh, Enterprise, what does that mean? The new order of settlement effectively allows firms to use their tax credits in an order that prioritizes those that expire first, and shields multinationals from the 15% global minimum tax by treating tax credit refunds as income rather than tax breaks.

Background: In November, the Finance Ministry set new deadlines for requesting refunds for credit balances, setting a maximum deadline of five years to request a refund for credit balances or to offset tax liabilities with a credit balance.

INHERITANCE: Inheritance disputes in the UAE are set to move faster after the launch of specialized inheritance courts under amendments to the Civil Procedures Code, state news agency Wam reports. The reforms allow the President of the Federal Judicial Council or the head of a local judicial authority to establish dedicated inheritance courts without needing litigants’ consent.

The backdrop: Inheritance disputes were previously split across family and civil courts under the UAE Personal Status Law — a system that defaults to shariah-based rules but allows non-Muslims to apply civil or home-country laws through a registered will. The new framework replaces this multi-step process with a single specialized forum for inheritance cases.

What else is changing: The amendments beef up courts’ ability to rely on technical expertise, allowing judges to appoint local or international experts, question their findings, and request revisions. Appeals are also getting tighter — challengers must now file judgments, dates, juridical grounds, and specific requests upfront, or risk having appeals thrown out as inadmissible.

Plus, a wider safety net for appeals: The reforms expand access to the Court of Cassation to cover decisions issued by the Courts of Appeal, not just final judgments. The Attorney General has also been given the power to file appeals independently, including in cases where litigants miss appeal deadlines.

Not entirely new, just federal now: Dubai rolled out its own standalone inheritance court in 2022 to speed up estate disputes at the emirate level.

PSA-

⛅WEATHER- Rainy and unstable conditions are set to continue through today, with the mercury peaking at 30°C in Dubai and 28°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to a low of 22°C in the former and 21°C in the capital.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Will Gulf sovereigns continue backing Paramount Skydance’s hostile bid for Warner Bros Discovery? The question hangs in the air this morning amid widespread reports that WBD plans to reject Paramount’s bid in favour of Netflix. The news sent Affinity partners, the key conduit for GCC backing of Paramount’s hostile bid, running to the exit.

Affinity, the private equity outfit led by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, said overnight it would “no longer pursue the opportunity.” Kushner helped Paramount line up some USD 24 bn in funding for the bid from Saudi’s PIF, the Qatar Investment Authority, and Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding.

PLUS- It’s a rough morning for the auto industry: Volkswagen is shutting a plant in Germany, its home market, for the first time in its 88-year history. That’s bad news for any country (including Egypt) hoping that VW would choose it as the site for a new assembly plant — German unions would go bonkers if it invested significant sums abroad after shutting a plant at home. Ford, meanwhile, is taking a USD 19 bn writedown as it walks-back plans to go all-in on EVs.

Keep an eye on oil this morning: Crude futures dipped overnight after the Trump administration said it would impose a “total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers” going into and and out of Venezuela.

AND- The Trump administration is in damage-control mode after the White House chief of staff gave a stunningly candid interview to Vanity Fair in which she said she was “aghast” at the destruction of USAID, called Elon an “odd duck” and ketamine user, and talked smack about JD Vance’s love of conspiracy theories. Read: Susie Wiles, JD Vance, and the “Junkyard Dogs”: The White House Chief of Staff on Trump’s Second Term (Part 1 of 2)

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OIL WATCH-

Dubai crude’s forward curve briefly flipped into contango — meaning near-term barrels were cheaper than later loads — a classic sign of plentiful supply, Bloomberg reports. Futures slid across key hubs, pushing Brent toward the USD 50s.

If we’re at USD 50-something now… Consensus on where oil will land next year is difficult to find, but Fitch Ratings’ “neutral” sector outlook assumes Brent averages around USD 63 / bbl, while Emirates NBD (pdf) is more bearish, forecasting Brent at USD 60 / bbl. Fitch Ratings also expects the oil market to remain oversupplied next year, while ENBD sees demand growth slowing as global economic activity moderates.

REMEMBER- There’s a demand debate: The International Energy Agency sees demand growth slowing to some 860k bbl / d, while Opec is nearly twice as bullish, pegging growth at 1.4 mn bbl / d.

It finally happened: Adnoc lands Covestro in EUR 14.7 bn European buyout

Adnoc finally lands its Covestro play: Adnoc’s global investment arm XRG closed its long-awaited takeover of German polymer-maker Covestro, with the latter also wrapping up the EUR 1.17 bn capital hike tied to the transaction, according to a press release from late last week.

Adnoc now has a 95.1% stake in the company, after conceding ground to satisfy Brussels’ competition concerns and securing regulatory clearances for the acquisition late last month. The energy giant has been trying to acquire the company for over two years.

Market reax: Covestro’s shares shed 0.17% to EUR 59.3 apiece on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange last Wednesday, its first close after the completion of the acquisition.

Our take

The acquisition is the largest Gulf-led buyout of a European-listed company in nearly two decades at EUR 14.7 bn, and proves Adnoc — through its international investment arm XRG — continues to hold plenty of negotiating prowess securing major acquisitions abroad, despite rising protectionism across Europe and other countries halting deals like what would have been its USD 18.7 bn acquisition for Santos.

XRG seems to remain undeterred and in talks with governments from Argentina to Azerbaijan on possible LNG investments, as it looks to secure a top-five global position in gas and petrochemicals.

AD Ports eyes a bigger Egypt footprint + DP World boosts links to Iraq. PLUS: Gulftainer in talks for Ugandan dry port

It’s a big day for Emirati port operators, with AD Ports, DP World, and Gulftainer all making inroads overseas, whether through acquisitions, new maritime links, or concession agreements.

AD Ports plans to raise its stake in Alexandria Container and Cargo Handling Company to become a majority shareholder as it gears up to place a mandatory tender offer to buy an additional stake of nearly 32% as a minimum, the ADQ-owned ports operator said in a statement.

The ADQ-backed player, which already owns 19.33% of ACLN, is offering to buy up to 90% of the company at EGP 22.99 a pop, according to a separate bourse disclosure (pdf), and is penciling in a 3% boost to group revenue from the acquisition, set to close in 2Q 2026.

The devil is always in the detail — a large part of the transaction may be AD Ports bringing its indirect stakes in-house. The additional stake on top of the 19.3% it acquired last month from a unit of Saudi’s PIF is 32% — the same amount it indirectly owns through Alpha Oryx. AD Ports confirmed that government shareholders that own over 40% of the port operator will “maintain their current respective shareholding stakes.”

The price is a markdown: At EGP 22.99 a share, the offer implies a 4.2% markdown to ACLN’s Thursday price of EGP 23.95 — its last close before the transaction was announced on Sunday.

Keep an eye out: The transaction is expected to come to fruition in 2Q 2026.

Why it matters

This is the latest step in AD Ports’ steady buildout of Egypt’s logistics corridor. The firm took a majority stake in Safina Shipping Services last year, secured a long-term concession for the USD 200 mn Safaga terminal, signed a 50-year renewable agreemen t to develop and operate Kezad East Port Said at Suez Canal, and is expanding its cruise and port footprint along the Red Sea coast.

Taking control of ACLN would plug AD Ports into the country’s primary Mediterranean gateway linking Suez Canal traffic with Egypt’s industrial and consumption base, and bring 60% of Alexandria’s container capacity — which spans two container terminals at Alexandria and El Dekheila ports with a combined annual capacity of 1.5 mn TEUs — under its umbrella.

Our take

The port operator has been monetizing non-core assets as it looks to strengthen its balance sheet and reinvest capital into growth and expansion of its logistics, infrastructure, and trade projects.

Next stop, Kuwait?

Next stop for AD Ports looks to be Kuwait, after the port operator signed an MoU with Kuwait Ports Authority to look into developing the country’s Shuaiba Port and operating its container terminal, according to a statement. The project is still in its feasibility study phase.

Meanwhile, DP World boosts links to Iraq and Gulftainer eyes Uganda

Meanwhile, DP World is expanding its links to Iraq. The company is now offering a quicker alternative to overland trucking between the UAE and Iraq by launching a new 36-hour maritime service linking Dubai’s Mina Rashid to Iraq’s Umm Qasr Port, it said in a statement. The route transports non-containerized, full-trainer units — with drivers onboard — and holds up to 145 trailers per sailing.

Also making an overseas play: Sharjah-based Gulftainer is finalizing a concession agreement to operate Uganda’s first rail-connected dry port, which would see it build and run the inland terminal that connects to the upcoming Standard Gauge Railway, it said in a statement.

The firm is testing the waters in landlocked Africa, where rail and road connectivity are key to reaching ports in neighboring countries. With no existing assets on the continent to leverage, Gulftainer’s move into Uganda could signal a niche expansion into interior logistics infrastructure on the continent — in contrast to other UAE logistics majors, like DP World and AD Ports, which are growing their presence in African seaports.

AND- IHC is investing further in its commodities trading unit

International Holding Company (IHC) lifted its 22.5% stake in ADX-listed agro-food and commodities trader Invictus Investment to about 40% via an AED 420 mn block trade, according to a press release (pdf). The transaction value implies an AED 2.4 bn valuation for Invictus at the time of the acquisition.

Invictus’ top line rose 43% y-o-y to AED 6.1 bn in 1H — its strongest half since listing — and it also scaled to 10 new markets, bringing its presence to 65 countries. Invictus’ shares gained 2.5% yesterday to close at AED 2.44.

Masdar withdraws take-private bid for India’s Renew, while Emirates NBD reportedly could drop plans to acquire another stake in an Indian bank

Masdar exits ReNew delisting: State-owned renewables giant Masdar withdrew from a consortium seeking to take India-based ReNew private, effectively ending a deal that would have seen the consortium delist the firm from Nasdaq, according to a regulatory disclosure.

It’s not clear what happened. Masdar informed other consortium members that it would not proceed with the transaction, without disclosing the reason. The consortium included Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia), and ReNew founder and promoter Sumant Sinha. CPPIB, Adia, and Sinha together hold about 64% of ReNew, while Masdar was joining as a new investor.

Background: The proposed transaction, led by Masdar, involved a final allcash offer of USD 8.15 per share on 15 October — up 15.3% from the initial USD 7.07 offer made in December 2024.

Why it matters

The proposed transaction offered Masdar a strategic inroad into India’s green energy sector through ReNew, which commands 9-10% of the country's renewables production capacity. ReNew’s operational and under-construction projects add up to 18.5 GW of clean energy projects as well as 6.5 GW in solar module manufacturing facilities, according to Economic Times.

Market reax: Following the withdrawal, ReNew’s stock value dropped 28%, trading at USD 5.5 on Tuesday versus USD 7.55 at Friday’s closing bell.

Also from the India<>Mena corridor-

Emirates NBD (ENBD) is likely to drop its plans to acquire a stake in Indian state-run lender IDBI Bank after Canada’s Fairfax Financial emerged as a frontrunner, competing with Mumbai-based Kotak Mahindra Bank, Economic Times reports. The Dubai-based lender is reportedly reassessing participation as Fairfax and Kotak Mahindra firm up their final bids ahead of the end-of-December deadline.

Fairfax is evaluating an allcash bid broadly aligned with IDBI Bank’s market valuation, while Kotak is considering a mix of banknotes and shares. Fairfax has prior operating experience in India’s banking sector, having acquired a controlling stake in CSB Bank in 2018.

REMEMBER- The Indian government and state-owned Life Ins. Corporation of India are selling a combined 60.72% stake worth around USD 7 bn in IDBI Bank.

Our take

Even as the Indian government is keen to allow more foreign investors to pick up major stakes in Indian banks, it would likely prefer to opt for a diverse set of investors to safeguard governance and spread risks across multiple stakeholders.

ENBD already made a strategic acquisition in India, investing USD 3 bn for a majority stake in RBL Bank, a transaction blessed by the government through special regulatory approvals. Although the Dubai bank seeks to establish a long-term and widespread presence in India, tapping into a credit-hungry and fast-growing market, its RBL Bank acquisition fulfills those objectives without overstretching its capital allocation in a competitive sector already dominated by domestic giants.

The IMF maintains UAE GDP projection unchanged in 2025 and 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its growth forecast for the UAE’s economy at 4.8% in 2025 and 5% in 2026 in line with its latest projections in October, according to the 2025 IMF Article IV consultation report for the UAE.

The anticipated 2025 growth is driven by a projected 5.3% expansion in the hydrocarbon sector, which is expected following the reversal of the Opec+ group's decision to pause oil production increases, alongside a 4.6% rise projected for the non-oil sector.

The IMF sees the UAE economy continuing to show resilience against global shocks and uncertainty, underpinned by “sustained external surpluses.”

The UAE’s overall fiscal surplus is forecast to remain around 5% in 2025 and 2026, as government revenues are exceeding expenditures leading to a projected net lending of 5.1% and 4.7% of GDP in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

The external position remains strong, but the current account surplus is projected to decline to 13.3% of GDP in 2025 from 14.5% in 2024. The fund expects our current account surplus to shrink further amid higher intermediate and final goods imports in support of the diversification strategy.

The banking sector is getting tub-tubs for maintaining resilience, keeping capital and liquidity levels above the regulatory minima during mid 2025. Tier 1 capital also came in at 16% while liquidity coverage ratio was at 153.2%, with a declining non-performing loans ratio showing strengthened capital buffers. Liquidity also increased, largely at the back of increased net capital inflows.

Inflation is projected at 1.6% in 2025 and about 2% in 2026, with housing prices being the main driver for inflation. The fund attributed lower oil prices and weaker non-energy commodity prices as key factors for its inflation projection for this year.

Our take

The key message from the IMF to the UAE this time around? Simply: Keep it up. The policies supporting innovation and diversification have been doing wonders to the economy, so a continuation of that along with “extreme vigilance in risk management” are what the doctor ordered for 2026.

Dubai's inflation decelerates in November on lower transport costs

Transport price inflation inched up for the second straight month in November, albeit at a slower pace of only 0.23% y-o-y.

REMEMBER - The Fuel Pricing Committee reduced petrol and diesel prices by up to 5.6% in November, before raising them again in December by up to 6.7%.

Inflation is still pressured by housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels — the largest component of the basket, though the pace of the increase has slowed slightly to 5.29%, the lowest level in 32 months. “Housing & utilities prices have accelerated faster than all other categories,” Emirates NBD said in a research note (pdf). “Over January to November it has averaged 6.5% growth, more than twice as fast as the headline figure as population growth and investment fueled demand,” it added.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices registered a negative reading for the first time since last May, falling by 0.17% in November, retreating from October’s largest monthly increase this year of 0.64%, according to the Statistics Center's monthly inflation report (pdf).

This decline was driven by transportation costs turning to a decline of 1.93% m-o-m, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices falling by 0.21% m-o-m, and clothing and footwear prices falling 2.31%. The recreation, sport, and culture sector also deepened its decline by 3.42%. Meanwhile, the pace of increase in the housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel category slowed to 0.37% m-o-m.

Inflation remains under control, analysts say: “Following the recent US Federal Reserve rate cut, Dubai's inflation in November remains moderate and well-managed,” banking and economic expert Amjad Naser told EnterpriseAM. “Compared to global markets still grappling with high inflation, Dubai benefits from both structural demand and a favorable interest rate environment, reinforcing its position as a stable and attractive hub for investment,” according to Naser.

Looking ahead: Emirates NBD maintained its forecast for the average headline inflation rate for the entire year at 2.6%, before slightly falling to 2.5% during 2026.

The UAE’s hedge fund boom matures further as a slate of hedge funds debut in the country

The UAE’s hedge fund story is entering a new phase. After years of attracting relocations from global managers, the country is now drawing activity further upstream into fund formation itself, as Dubai and Abu Dhabi increasingly position themselves as places to launch, not just operate.

By the numbers: At least five senior portfolio managers from top hedge funds are launching UAE-based entities, with the three largest spin-outs backed by Brummer & Partners, Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, and Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Former ExodusPoint and Millennium manager Nikolay Aleksandrov (LinkedIn) secured roughly USD 500 mn from Morgan Stanley for Continuum Capital Management, while Omar Newera (LinkedIn) raised a similar amount from Schonfeld for Insight Capital Management.

Sign of the times? Those launches are landing in a market that has already reached critical mass. Dubai International Financial Center now hosts 102 registered hedge funds and says it ranks among the world’s top five hedge fund hubs. The latest arrival is US alternative investment firm Oak Hill Advisors, which manages about USD 108 bn in assets, according to a statement.

That’s not all: As we’ve been reporting throughout the year, the UAE’s hedge fund buildout extends well beyond spin-outs. This year alone, we reported on arrivals including Stronghold Capital, Pimco, Cambridge Associates, Bluecrest Capital, and China International Capital Corporation. Abu Dhabi’s ADGM has drawn Davidson Kempner and Arini, while firms such as Balyasny Asset Management and LSE-listed Man Group are weighing deeper expansions into the capital after first launching in Dubai.

What’s driving the rush?

Zero taxes, regulatory momentum, and proximity to sovereign and family-office capital have turned the UAE into a credible alternative to traditional hedge fund hubs.

What to watch

With spin-outs and incumbents piling in, the next phase will be less about who arrives and more about who scores a W. Rising density will sharpen competition for capital and talent, and quickly separate strategies that scale from those that don’t.

Mubadala targets real estate credit to capitalize on the real estate credit crunch

Mubadala Investment entered a USD 500 mn real estate debt partnership with MassMutual’s investment management arm Barings, as the sovereign wealth fund looks to capitalize on a funding gap for the sector, state news agency Wam reports. The JV aims to deploy capital into senior and subordinated real estate loans across the US, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.

Our take

Mubadala is targeting the high-yield and riskier segment of the capital stack to capitalize on a global real estate credit crunch, as commercial banks in the US and Europe retreat due to high interest rates and tightening capital requirements. This positions the sovereign player to fill a funding gap for property owners facing debt maturities, securing fixed and double-digit returns.

Background

Mubadala has been ramping up its exposure to both real estate and private credit. Mubadala Capital launched a real estate and infrastructure investment management platform alongside Aldar and partnered with Cain International to deploy bns in luxury real estate. It also acquired a USD 600 mn Apollo Global-managed direct lending portfolio, backed Janus Henderson’s MENA private credit fund, and committed USD 1 bn to its partnership with Fortress Investment.

Dubai developers still bank on branding even as doubts grow over its value

Think developers have had enough of branded residences? Think again. Some developers are so bullish on branded real estate that they’re now developing entire branded cities — with Binghatti choosing Mercedes-Benz for its latest branded real estate play, according to a statement (pdf) out yesterday.

The AED 30 bn project, located in Meydan, comes amid growing criticism of the branded residence segment. Some industry players — like British developer Nick Candy and Arada’s Chief Investment Officer Rosa Piro — question if the brand name alone justifies the premium associated with these types of projects, particularly when it comes without a genuine service offering, AGBI reports.

Some developers are opting out: Azizi Developments said it stopped pursuing branded projects after finding that service charges for residents became disproportionately high, with branding more than doubling annual maintenance costs in some cases, a company spokesperson told AGBI.

Background

Branded residences, where developers license a third-party brand to market and price homes at a premium, have surged across Dubai. Brands range from hotel operators to fashion houses, watchmakers, and car companies — all banking on cachets translating into higher prices.

Why it matters: Momentum is spilling beyond the emirate

Momentum is spilling beyond the emirate: Luxury fashion house Karl Lagerfeld signed a partnership with Aark Developers for a USD 1.4 bn beachfront branded residential project on Al Marjan Island in Ras Al Khaimah, due for completion in 2028. The development will deliver 663 residences alongside hotel-style amenities, Trade Arabia reports.

Our take-

Dubai Land Department data suggests buyers are still engaging with branded projects, though not all brands are rewarded equally. Mercedes-Benz Places by Binghatti sold 33 off-plan units so far this year, generating AED 449.8 mn, with prices reaching around AED 5.6k per sq ft — roughly 44% above the Downtown Dubai off-plan average, according to data picked up by AGBI. In contrast, Burj Binghatti Jacob & Co sold 46 units (worth AED 482 mn) at around AED 2.7k per sq ft, broadly in line with Business Bay averages. The sales volumes are similar, but the pricing power is not.

Yes, but: While branded homes command an average 33% global premium, Savills’ Branded Residences Report 2025 (pdf) says that in established cities such as Dubai, pricing power depends less on the brand itself and more on delivery quality, location, and operational execution.

What it means: Branding still works, but only when backed by operations. Dubai’s branded residences market is not overheating; it’s maturing. Buyers remain willing to pay a premium, but increasingly only when branding comes with tangible services, credible operators, and a clear lifestyle proposition.

Projects that rely on logos alone may still sell in a rising market, but risk underperforming once buyers start scrutinizing service charges, resale values, and day-to-day experience. The next phase of the branded boom will likely be less about who lends their name — and more about who actually runs the building.

Amazon’s local rival noon gets USD 500 mn investment from PIF, Alabbar

Dubai-based noon raised USD 500 mn from several backers, including from its founder Mohammed Alabbar, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), and others, sources familiar with the matter told Semafor. The breakdown of share ownership is not clear.

Our take

The fresh capital will help noon navigate intense competition from local and global players, allowing it to grow its marketplace, maintain competitive pricing, and counter fast-expanding smaller rivals.

Who are the main players? Amazon is its biggest competitor in the region, while China’s Meituan recently entered the Middle East with food delivery and delivery-only stores. Meanwhile, Saudi’s Ninja raised USD 250 mn to expand, and low-cost platforms Shein and AliExpress are also expanding their footprint.

Background

The company is also considering a dual listing on the Saudi and UAE stock exchanges within the next two years as it moves toward profitability, and is exploring mergers and acquisitions to expand into new markets such as India. It is also expanding its automated self-delivery services, aiming to cut its 40k delivery workforce by half by 2027.

US-listed ETFs land on ADX, and KKR makes a Gulf investment

ADX opens an onshore lane to China tech and carbon

The ADX has become the first exchange in the Arab world to cross-list US-domiciled ETFs, debuting specialist investment manager KraneShares’ CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and Global Carbon Strategy ETF (KRBN), according to Abu Dhabi Media Office. The move gives regional investors onshore access to China tech and global carbon markets during Gulf trading hours, with trades settled in AED through UAE brokers, while bringing nearly USD 10 bn in assets under management onto the exchange.

KKR makes its first Gulf tech-growth wager from the UAE-

KKR is starting to route its global tech and capital markets wagers through the UAE. The US private equity firm is leading a USD 220 mn strategic investment in Premialab — a Dubai-headquartered data and analytics platform focused on quantitative investment strategies — alongside existing investor Balderton, according to a statement. The transaction marks KKR’s first Gulf-region investment via its Next Generation Technology Growth platform.

The move builds on KKR’s steady expansion in the UAE. As we’ve previously reported, the firm set up shop in ADGM to strengthen its on-ground presence in the Gulf, and has been building regional teams across Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Recent regional investments include a minority stake in Adnoc Gas Pipeline Assets and an investment in Gulf Data Hub.

Gulf investors ♥️stocks heading into 2026, as private equity suffers from “illiquidity premium”

Investors across the Gulf view public equities as the most attractive asset class on a risk-adjusted basis heading into 2026, favoring the liquidity and historical reliability of public markets over other asset classes, according to Sico’s Investor Return Expectations in the GCC 2026 survey. This is followed by fixed income and real estate.

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Investors are generally targeting annual returns of 9-12% for the asset class — a target that Sico Group’s head of research Nishit Lakhoti broadly aligns with the asset class’ long-term 8-9% total return CAGR in the GCC.

On the other hand, most investors are demanding the highest returns from private equity compared to other asset classes, given persistent illiquidity and exit risk in the sector. Most investors now require a minimum unleveraged return of around 13% to commit capital.

Blame it on the “illiquidity premium.” That’s how Sico Capital CEO Wissam Haddad refers to the spread between the 9-12% target for equities and the 13%+ requirement for PE, which he says comes as softer IPO markets have made exits harder, forcing investors to demand higher compensation for the risk of having capital trapped in longer holding periods or continuation funds.

Cash might not be king? Despite expectations of 5-6% returns on liquidity holdings, Sico Group Deputy Group CEO Ali Marshad said investors may be underestimating the impact of rate cuts, noting that yields paying 5% today could drift closer to 4.25% over the coming year as policy eases, potentially forcing capital back into risk assets to maintain returns.

The same goes for government bond yields: In the fixed income space, investors in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are looking for 5% annual returns on 10-year USD government bonds, while those in Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain are eyeing closer to a 6% yield. Easing inflation and rate cuts will likely pull most GCC sovereign yields below 5%, with Bahrain remaining the key outlier, Marshad says.

The safe wagers for investors in the Gulf? The UAE and Saudi Arabia, as usual — though confidence in Saudi Arabia eased slightly y-o-y amid concerns over liquidity and market performance.

And the new kids on the block: Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain have all seen optimism improve, with Kuwait in particular seeing investor confidence surge to 41% this year, up from 28%, according to the survey. This was led by reform momentum and an uptick in government spending in both Oman and Kuwait.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Most Asian markets are in the green this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei making marginal gains on the back of positive export figures that beat analyst expectations. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.7%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 0.1%. China’s CSI 300 was the outlier, remaining slightly lower. Over on Wall Street, futures slipped overnight after a losing session for all three indices yesterday, on the back of higher unemployment figures out yesterday.

ADX	9,980	-0.1% (YTD: +6%)
DFM	6,111	+0.3% (YTD: +18.4%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,888	+0.3% (YTD: +17.4%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.6% o/n	3.7% 1 yr
TASI	10,453	-1.3% (YTD: -13.2%)
EGX30	42,002	-0.7% (YTD: +41.2%)
S&P 500	6,800	-0.2% (YTD: +15.6%)
FTSE 100	9,685	-0.7% (YTD: +18.5%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,718	-0.6% (YTD: +16.8%)
Brent crude	USD 58.92	-2.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.96	+1.9%
Gold	USD 4,342	+0.2%
BTC	USD 87,484	+1.9% (YTD: -6.5%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.77	-0.8% (YTD: +8.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.77	+0.1% (YTD: +8.5%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.48	-0.1% (YTD: -5.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 633.5 mn. The index is up 18.4% YTD.

In the green: Ekttitab Holding (+8%), Ithmaar (+4.6%) and Al Salam Bank (+1.9%).

In the red: Gulfnav (-9.9%), Dubai Refreshment (-9.8%) and Al Mazaya (-9.4%).

Over on the ADX, the index fell 0.1% on turnover of AED 859.1 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.3%.

CALENDAR

DECEMBER

18-23 December (Thursday-Tuesday): Games of the Future, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

26 December (Friday): Tender period for Emirates NBD’s offer for RBL Bank’s public shares ends.

29-30 December (Monday-Tuesday): World Sports Summit, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.

2026

JANUARY

1 January: Client asset regime changes in Dubai International Financial Center take effect.

1 January: Amendments to the Tax Procedures Law and the UAE VAT Law come into effect.

9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit, UAE.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai Exhibition Center, Dubai.

12-15 January (Monday-Thursday): Dubai International Project Management Forum, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 January - 7 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, International Tennis Center, Zayed Sports City.

FEBRUARY

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.

4-6 February (Wednesday-Friday): Arab Actuarial Conference, Millennium Plaza Downtown Hotel, Dubai.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-13 February (Monday-Friday): The World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Top Advisors and Investors Summit, Abu Dhabi

MARCH

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates Congress on AI & Visionary leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March - 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

MAY

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Abu Dhabi Center, Abu Dhabi

JUNE

15 June-15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation ;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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