Good morning, lovely people. We have a very Abu Dhabi-heavy issue for you this morning, led by non-oil trade figures for 1H 2025 and more evidence of deflation as prices dropped further in June. Also: IHC is transferring some USD 500 mn in reins. premiums to its new reins. platform RIQ. Plus, Binghatti took a USD 500 mn sukuk issuance to market. Let’s dive in.
WEATHER- Temperatures peak at 44°C in Dubai today, with a sticky 33°C overnight. Abu Dhabi hits 45°C, cooling to a humid 34°C.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
Amea Power joins Cox’s desalination project in Morocco: Amea Power has joined the development of the second phase of Morocco’s Agadir desalination project with Spanish energy and water utility company Cox, according to a press release. The company formed a JV with Cox — in which Amea holds a 3.76% stake — back in May, to co-develop and manage water and energy infrastructure projects.
Background: Cox signed a EUR 250 mn transaction for the Morocco desalination and wind farm project last week. The project will increase capacity by 125k cbm per day, bringing total output to 400k cbm daily when operational in late 2026. It will be powered by a 150 MW wind plant set to come online in 2027.
OIL WATCH-
Opec+ hikes production for September, wrapping unwinding of supply cuts: Opec+ has approved an oil production increase of 547k barrels per day for September, wrapping its supply restoration strategy ahead of schedule, according to a press release. The hike reverses the bloc’s 2.2 mn bbl/d cut instituted in 2023, and also allows the UAE a 300k bbl/d quota increase ahead of schedule. The unwinding started back in April.
A lot to gain: Opec+ will likely benefit from its decision to prioritize market share over price stability, despite initial economic strain. Opec+ members are hoping to claw back market share ceded to US shale and other competitors as oil supply growth from non-Opec producers is expected to slow by over 80% through 2027. The hike also comes amid heightened diplomatic pressure from US President Donald Trump, who has threatened secondary tariffs targeting Moscow’s oil customers unless it reaches a quick ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. Any major disruption in Russian supply risks driving up global oil prices.
More in the bag: The group is still holding onto some 1.65 mn bbl/d per day from eight member countries, and an additional 2 mn bbl/d reduction across the entire alliance, Reuters reports. Both measures are scheduled to expire by the close of 2026.
Market reax: Oil prices slipped on the news, with Brent Crude futures falling to USD 69.24. Oil prices could drop to around USD 60 per barrel by year-end due to a market surplus, Bloomberg reports, citing estimates by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. This could force Opec+ to reverse production hikes and resume output cuts to ease price pressure, energy consultancy FGE said. The cartel meets next on 7 September to discuss its policy for October.
India’s refiners have been quick to react to Trump’s sanction threats, with India’s biggest refiner, Indian Oil, pivoting to buy at least 2 mn barrels from Abu Dhabi and 5 mn of US crude, Bloomberg reports, citing traders. India’s Reliance Industries also purchased one mn barrels of Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude last month, with trading volumes of Murban futures having increased, in recent weeks amid growing market interest in alternative crude sources as geopolitical tensions shift procurement patterns across Asia and Europe.
DATA POINTS-
#1- Dubai welcomed 9.9 mn international visitors in the first half of this year, a 6%increase y-o-y, according to Dubai Media Office, which attributed the growth to public-private partnerships and global marketing efforts.
The breakdown: The lion’s share of visitors came from the wider GCC and MENA region, who accounted for 26% of visitors. Tourists from Western Europe followed next, accounting for 22% of the total, while those from South Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Eastern Europe accounted for 15% each.
#2- Also seeing a 6% increase was Ras Al Khaimah, which saw 654k tourists visit in the first half of this year, its strongest half-year performance to date, according to a Ras Al Khaimah Tourism Development Authority press release (pdf). The increase in tourist arrivals drove a 9% rise in tourism revenues compared to 1H 2024.
Key source markets showed growth, led by India with a 25% y-o-y surge in visitors. Tourist numbers from China rose 9.2% y-o-y, while Russia recorded 7% growth and the UK saw 5%. Visitor numbers from Romania, Poland, Uzbekistan, and Belarus saw significant increases after the launch of direct flights to Ras Al Khaimah International Airport.
#3- Dubai's real estate sector recorded 90.3k new unit registrations in 1H 2025, with 75.3k units sold for AED 151 bn, according to Dubai Media Office. The market saw 24 project completions valued at AED 4.5 bn, with 726 developments currently under construction. Lease activity remained stable with 465.7k registered contracts, while new lease agreements rose 7% to 232.9k and led to a 5% increase in total lease value at AED 42 bn.
The bigger picture: Total real estate transactions from Dubai’s real estate market, including sales, mortgages, and grants, reached a new record of AED 431.2 bn in 1H 2025, an uptick of roughly 25% y-o-y. Some 13.5k apartments and 4k villas were completed in 1H, accounting for 28% of the builds set to be delivered during the whole year, ValuStrat said earlier. ValuStrat also revised its forecast for new build units entering the market this year to 66.6k, up from 61.6k earlier in 1Q. There are 158.9k apartments and 40.2k villas currently in the construction pipeline, set to be wrapped up by 2029.
#4- The GCC’s real GDP rose 3.3% y-o-y in 4Q 2024 to USD 456.3 bn, according to the GCC Statistical Center’s GDP in GCC Countries quarterly report (pdf). Quarterly growth came in at 1% from 3Q’s USD 452.2 bn. Non-oil activities contributed 70.6% of GDP at constant prices, while oil-linked sectors made up just 29.4%. We reported last week that nominal GDP — measured at current prices and not adjusted for inflation — came in at USD 587.8 bn during the quarter.
The UAE’s real GDP rose to USD 119 bn in 4Q 2024, with the Emirates recording the highest GDP y-o-y growth among its GCC peers during the quarter at 5%. Non-oil activity accounted for 75.8% of the total, while the oil sector’s contribution stood at 25.2%.
Sector-wise, mining and quarrying made up 20.6% of the UAE’s GDP for the quarter, while wholesale and retail trade accounted for 14.5%. Financial and ins. activities followed at 9.9%, manufacturing contributed 8.8%, construction made up 8.6%, and transport and storage accounted for 5.2%. The UAE’s GDP grew 4% y-o-y in 2024.
PSA-
Abu Dhabi launches digital property exchange platform: The Abu Dhabi Housing Authority transitioned all land and housing exchange services to a digital platform on the Iskan Abu Dhabi app, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. Citizens can use the new platform for direct citizen-to-citizen agreements, government inventory matching, and to access an open marketplace listing available properties. The platform includes details such as location, plot dimensions, and infrastructure status.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
It’s a (very) calm morning in the international press, dominated by concerns over Trump’s erratic response to jobs data, and what comes next in the Gaza war.
Defending Trump: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the president’s firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer is justified after the BLS made “extreme” downward revisions to job report data from May and June. Trump “wants his own people there” to make the data “more transparent and more reliable,” Hasset added.
Are revisions uncommon? US job data have been known to undergo revisions later, as some businesses do not file data before the reporting deadline, making the estimate more precise as time goes by.
OVER IN GAZA- The US and Israel appear to be shifting their approach towards an “all ornothing” agreement to end the war in Gaza, US envoy Steve Witkoff signaled in a meeting with families of Israeli captives on Friday. While Witkoff stopped short on providing more details, the shift could be motivated by mounting international pressure over the humanitarian situation in Gaza and calls for recognizing a Palestinian state.
Israel has been trying to secure a partial agreement for months, but Hamas insists on a comprehensive agreement that answers next-day questions, including governance in the enclave and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Arab states — along with the EU and 17 more countries — have called on the militant group last week to disarm and relinquish power to the Palestinian Authority “in the context of ending the war.”
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