A two-week ceasefire

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: A two-week ceasefire

Good morning, friends. While the rest of the world celebrated news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, it was another restless night for us with a fresh round of attacks targeting the Emirates in the early hours of the day.

Here’s what we know: Washington will “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” if Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, US President Donald Trump said. Tehran responded by saying it would halt its attacks across the Gulf if the US and Israel stop their attacks. The Islamic Republic also said it would open the Strait of Hormuz, allowing vessels to transit the waterway in coordination with Iranian armed forces. This came hours before Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or else a “whole civilization will die.”

What happens next? The two sides will meet on Friday to “further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes,” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said. Trump said Iran presented a 10-point proposal, which he called a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

The question is whether the ceasefire will hold: An hour after the ceasefire announcement, the Defense Ministry warned that sounds heard this morning are the result of interceptions of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. Qatar and Kuwait also reported a fresh round of missile attacks, while Saudi Arabia issued a security alert to residents.

Abu Dhabi authorities are fighting a fire at Habshan gas facility, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said without confirming the cause of the fire or if any injuries were reported. This came after a US official told the New York Times that the US halted strikes against Iran in accordance with the agreement.

What this means for us at home: The reopening of Hormuz means oil exports can once again start making their usual trips to their destinations, helping end one of the worst disruptions the global energy market has ever seen. We’ll also stop worrying about disruptions to our food supplies — a large chunk of which goes through the waterway.

The immediate impact: We expect the announcement to translate into a sharp rebound for the ADX and DFM, as the war-risk premiums drop.

Market reax: Oil dipped below USD 100 per barrel following the news, with Brent dropping as much as 16% to below USD 92 earlier today.

Asian markets cheered the ceasefire, with Japan’s Nikkei climbing over 5% and South Korea’s Kospi rising almost 6% in early trading. Western futures markets — in the US and Europe — also posted gains across the board.

BEFORE THE CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT — We heard murmurs of evacuations yesterday across DIFC and some panic among residents and expats we spoke to in response to US President Donald Trump’s threats over the past few days. People are concerned that the US’ potential escalation against Iran will result in even further escalation and retaliation from Iran against Gulf states.

And their fears are well placed: We dove into what escalation and attacks on the Gulf region’s power and desalination infrastructure could mean for the region in yesterday’s issue.

Yesterday also saw more attacks on state-owned telecom infrastructure, although this time, instead of Du, it was a strike on Thuraya Telecommunications Company’s administrative building in Sharjah’s central region, state news agency Wam reports. Two Pakistani nationals sustained moderate injuries as a result of the strike and were taken to the hospital for emergency care.

On a more positive note, Abu Dhabi’s property market seems to have weathered the storm thus far, just as Dubai did, with 1Q 2026 data showing solid FDI and a still-strong leasing market even in March.

WEATHER- More of the same: Look for highs of 28-29°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and a low of 21°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Watch this space

BUSINESS — More SME support, this time from Emirates NBD: Emirates NBD launched a new business support package, waiving fees and charges for deferred loans, check returns, international courier deliveries, ATM withdrawals, and debit card replacements, according to a press release.

Letters of credit and guarantees will also get a 30% reduction, while banknote management service fees will be slashed by 40%.

REMEMBER- Support for smaller businesses is stacking up: Earlier this week, Dubai South rolled out rent relief and flexible payment terms at its Business Park, including rentfree periods, deferred payments, and waived penalties. Last week, Qashio launched a AED 10 mn relief program in partnership with Dubai Chambers, while authorities moved in late March to introduce a AED 1 bn package to cushion private-sector strain linked to the regional conflict.

AVIATION — UAE airlines see slight dip in activity: Following a temporary hike in activity last week, flight numbers have since dropped slightly, with Emirates flights dropping for the second day to 351 from 366 the day before, according to recent figures published by Flightradar24. The volume of Flydubai and Air Arabia flights has also decreased slightly, with the former seeing flights fall from 150 earlier in the week to 140 on Monday, while the latter fell from 148 to 140.

Etihad, meanwhile, has reportedly slashed long-haul prices by 50% to stimulate demand, according to the New York Post, which reported that flights departing in May and returning in June from London to Sydney via Abu Dhabi round trips are around half the price of comparable flights on British Airways, Asharq Business reports. It also canceled change fees until March 2027, according to its website.

Data point

7.56 mn bbl / d — that’s how much Opec’s output fell by last month, amounting to a near 25% drop to 22 mn bbl / d, according to a Bloomberg survey. The plunge is the largest of its kind in almost four decades, surpassing the drop during the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

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Abu Dhabi property market largely shrugs off regional tensions, but a cooldown is ahead

Abu Dhabi’s property market — like Dubai’s — is still holding its ground despite the regional conflict. “We […] so far have observed a market that is pausing to take stock, not one that is under structural pressure,” Cavendish Maxwell’s Director of Business Development and Client Relations Zacky Sajjad tells EnterpriseAM UAE.

Abu Dhabi’s market fundamentals remain resilient, he said, with sellers holding their ground, and demand from end users and long-term investors continuing to support activity.

By the numbers: The emirate clocked AED 66 bn in real estate transactions in 1Q 2026, according to data from the Abu Dhabi Real Estate Center, holding firm despite regional tensions. That’s up 160.7% y-o-y and 38.1% q-o-q, according to a press release (pdf).

Sales alone jumped to AED 49.1 bn, more than triple the AED 15.4 bn recorded a year earlier, while mortgages also rose to AED 15 bn, up 47.1%.

Even with everything that took place since late February, March’s data was roughly similar to January in terms of transaction volume, Sajjad tells us. But the standout month was February, he added, citing strong FDI and off-plan activity around hotspots like Hudayriyat Island. FDI reached AED 8.3 bn during the quarter.

Primary sales accounted for about 75% of activity versus 25% in the secondary market, broadly looking in line with the year's split, Head of Research at CBRE MENA Matthew Green tells EnterpriseAM UAE. The secondary market stayed firm on pricing, Sajjad added.

Off-plan transactions also accounted for more than 80% of the total, Sajjad said, adding that mid-market apartments are still driving market activity, even as luxury sales grab attention.

Residential units dominated the market, with AED 54.1 bn in transactions and AED 44 bn in sales, up 223.5% y-o-y.

Meanwhile, commercial real estate slightly cooled on a quarterly basis, with AED 476.4 mn in sales, down from a record 4Q that saw AED 1.4 bn in sales. On a y-o-y basis, however, the sector showed significant improvement, with sales nearly doubling.

IN CONTEXT- Abu Dhabi closed a record-breaking 2025 with AED 142 bn in total transactions — a 44% y-o-y jump that was helped in large by a surge in FDI (accounting for around AED 8.2 bn). By hitting AED 66 bn in the first three months of 2026, the market has already transacted nearly 46% of last year’s total value in just one quarter.

The leasing market is also showing signs of stability: The repeat lease price index recorded a 16% y-o-y increase, underscoring “continued demand from end users and investors,” the press release said.

Like Dubai, expect a cooldown ahead…

Activity will likely ease in April and May as transaction timelines lengthen and investors take a more cautious, wait-and-see approach, Green said.

Rising construction costs and logistical challenges could also lead to delays on some projects, depending on sourcing conditions, he added. But the largest developers are still signaling continuity, Sajjad said.

The supply-demand balance is still in place. Around 10k units are expected to be delivered in 2026, with a similar volume slated for 2027, before a more significant ramp-up in 2028-2029, Green said.

Mashreq launches non-resident accounts for Egyptians in the UAE, with quick-remit rail

Our friends at Mashreq have launched digital cross-border accounts for Egyptian nationals living in the UAE, becoming the first bank to offer a quick-remit rail between the two countries without any fees, according to a press release (pdf). Accounts can be opened in both EGP and USD through an entirely digital process, with no paperwork or bank visits necessary. This works for anyone holding a NEO, Gold, or Private account at Mashreq, the press release said.

Quick remit? Remittances are Egypt’s lifeblood — rising 40.5% y-o-y to USD 41.5 bn last year — but a significant chunk of that flow often stays outside the banking system due to better rates or lower friction at exchange houses, Mashreq’s Global Head of Digital Strategic Partnerships Ghazal Al Sakaal told EnterpriseAM, adding that the no-fee feature removes this barrier.

What’s next: Beyond simple transfers, the accounts allow UAE residents to buy Egyptian CDs and investment products directly from their phones. Al Sakaal tells us the next step is allowing users to open accounts for family members living in the UAE.

Background

Egypt is not the only market where Mashreq offers non-resident accounts — it launched a similar feature in Pakistan earlier this year, and has the same offering in India, which it offers through a partner bank in the country.

The bank has already seen “huge demand” in Pakistan for the non-resident accounts since their launch in February, Al Sakaal said. It’s now also considering new markets to launch non-resident accounts and continue to capture cross-border flows passing through key remittance corridors with the UAE, she added.

Mubadala Capital continues overseas Brazil investment despite regional volatility

Mubadala Capital hits almost USD 1 bn for third Brazil fund: Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund’s investment arm Mubadala Capital raised USD 900 mn for its third overseas Brazil fund, overshooting its initial USD 750 mn, the Financial Times reports.

IN CONTEXT- While the parent company, Mubadala Investment Company, anchored down USD 250 mn, the rest of the financing came from international pension funds and private investors. The influx of capital signals continued investor confidence in Abu Dhabi investment vehicles despite ongoing regional security threats.

The details: One-third of the fund is already deployed, targeting companies in distress across Brazil, including a gym chain, the Rio metro, a toll road, and a medical university.

Despite rising speculations that Gulf states might invest inwards to address infrastructure damage and energy security, Mubadala Capital’s Chief Investment Officer Oscar Fahlgren told the outlet that the firm has no plans to redirect the firm’s USD 430 bn in assets towards the Middle East. It’s not just Mubadala: the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has also kept active, ramping up exposure to private credit in Europe and Asia.

Mubadala’s been around the block in Brazil: The investment arm already has deep roots in the country, first entering Brazil in 2012 with financial backing from former tycoon Eike Batista. It previously invested USD 7.3 bn to fund biofuel production, a Burger King franchisee, and ownership of the organizer of Formula 1’s São Paulo Grand Prix.

Nubank in ADGM, commercial upper 6GHz launches in the UAE, and Dragon Oil makes another discovery in Egypt

Nubank to launch HQ in ADGM

Brazilian neobank Nubank is pressing ahead with a regional HQ in ADGM: Abu Dhabi Crown Prince met with São Paulo-based digital bank Nubank’s founder and CEO David Vélez ahead of the Brazilian digital bank’s expansion in the UAE, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. The rollout is happening in partnership with several banking and financial institutions, including Abu Dhabi’s digital platform Wio Bank.

What we know: Although no timeline has been specified, the move establishes the capital as a launchpad for the bank’s expansion into the Middle East and North Africa region and Asian markets. The bank is the largest of its kind in Latin America and among the largest worldwide, with assets under management exceeding USD 78 bn across Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Uruguay, the US, and Germany.

IN CONTEXT- Despite escalating regional tensions, the expansion of the NYSE-listed neobank is the latest in a string of international firms setting up shop in the UAE’s regulatory hub, including Hillhouse Investment and US-based public and private credit-focused investment firm Muzinich & Co.

UAE rolls out world’s first high-capacity upper 6GHz network for mobile operators

UAE activates world’s first upper 6GHz band: The Telecommunications and Digital Government Regulatory Authority (TDRA) launched the world’s first commercial upper 6GHz (U6GHz) network for mobile operators, in a bid to strengthen digital infrastructure for AI-intensive data usage, according to a press release. Industry giants, including SAMENA Telecommunications Council, Huawei, du, e&, GSMA, Nokia, HONOR, and Tozed, are also supporting the new infrastructure’s rollout for commercial deployment.

U6GHz? The new upper 6 GHz band — dubbed the golden spectrum — offers a high-capacity network that acts as a bridge between 5G-Advanced and 6G. While current 5G is optimal for downloads, the new infrastructure supports bigger loads needed for real-time AI processing.

Dragon Oil announces new Gulf of Suez discovery

Yet another oil discovery in Egypt: Emirates National Oil Company subsidiary Dragon Oil made a new oil discovery at the Egyptian South El Wasl B.B2 exploration well in the Gulf of Suez, state news agency Wam reports. The firm estimates some 8 mn barrels worth of original oil reserves, while initial testing suggests production rates could exceed 2k barrels per day.

ICYMI- Earlier this week, Dragon Oil reaffirmed its commitment to Egypt with some USD 3 bn in investments, with the firm bullish on its Gulf of Suez presence, pointing to a recent discovery at the North Safa field — the first in two decades — followed by another discovery at its East Crystal-1 well as evidence of the area’s investment potential.

Western private credit markets face a stress wave

Private credit funds are showing signs of liquidity stress as investors rush to redeem their capital amid transparency and AI-related risks. Firms including BlackRock, Apollo, Ares, and KKR have capped withdrawals to avoid selling illiquid loans at steep reductions, highlighting the sector’s vulnerability to shifting sentiment despite its rapid growth in recent years, Reuters reports.

Private credit providers are handling the stress wave in different ways

Several firms curbed redemptions to the limit: Blue Owl Capital faced USD 5.4 bn in redemption requests from two key funds in 1Q 2026, but capped withdrawals at 5% of each fund’s value, far below the 21.9% of investors who requested redemptions in its Credit Income Corp fund and the 40.7% in its tech lending fund. Several private credit funds also capped withdrawals at 5%, far below the requested redemption rates, including Barings (11.3%), Apollo (11.2%), Ares (11.6%), and BlackRock (9.3%).

Others decided to fully honor the requests: Goldman Sachs met all of its redemption requests while remaining below its cap, with investors requesting to repurchase just under 5% of shares in this quarter, Reuters reported separately. Meanwhile, Oaktree Capital Management decided to honor the entire 8.5% redemption requests it received in the same period.

What triggered the flight

Private credit’s murky loans come under the spotlight: Growing concerns over weak lending standards in private credit have emerged after a series of corporate failures — including Tricolor, First Brands, and Market Financial Solutions — highlighted how the sector’s opaque debt structures can quickly produce losses for both private and public lenders, even though the funds themselves are not highly leveraged, the New York Times reports.

And AI fears stoked investor caution: Investors’ worries were amplified by the circulating fears that AI might disrupt the business models of tech and software sectors, decreasing their earnings.

BUT- Blackstone blames the buzz for the flight: Blackstone President Jonathan Gray attributed the rising redemption requests to “noise” in the market, telling CNBC that there is a gap between what is happening with the underlying portfolios and what investors read in the news.

Running the scenarios

Built for the storm: Private credit funds could weather moderate stress thanks to set amortization schedules, regular loan prepayments, and liquid reserves that typically cover most redemptions, Reuters reports. Even under conditions like 2008, these buffers allowed funds to manage outflows while staying within borrowing limits.

Still, the main risk arises if rising defaults coincide with investor withdrawals, which could strain the semi-liquid structures and force asset sales. While these funds are not banks, their growing exposure to retail investors and reliance on semiliquid and ins.-linked capital means panic could amplify pressure. However, the USD 2 tn market is small relative to banking, so any fallout would likely be contained.

ADX	9,595.8	-0.3% (YTD: -4%)
DFM	5,404	-0.8% (YTD: -10.4%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,472	-1.2% (YTD: -8.5%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.5% o/n	3.7% 1 yr
TASI	11,088	-1.6% (YTD: +5.7%)
EGX30	46,682	-2.0% (YTD: +11.6%)
S&P 500	6,617	+0.1% (YTD: -3.3%)
FTSE 100	10,349	-0.8% (YTD: +4.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,633	-1.1% (YTD: -2.7%)
Brent crude	USD 95.94	-12.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.79	-2.9%
Gold	USD 4,845	+3.4%
BTC	USD 72,449	+5.1% (YTD: -17.3%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.70	+3.4% (YTD: -1.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.33	+0.1% (YTD: -1.7%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	25.78	+6.7% (YTD: +74.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 660.9 mn. The index is down 4% YTD.

In the green: Gulf Cement (+3.4%), Sharjah Cement and Industrial Development Co. (+2.9%), and Fujairah Cement Industries (+1.8%).

In the red: Gulf Financial Holding (-5%), Ins. House (-4.6%), and Hayah Ins. (-4.5%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.8% on turnover of AED 981.5 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 1.2%.

CALENDAR

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Abu Dhabi Global Entrepreneurship Festival, Abu Dhabi Energy Center, Abu Dhabi

21 April (Tuesday): FAO Regional Conference for the Near East (NERC38), Al Ain.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, ICC Hall, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent;
Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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