Adnoc lands another supply agreement for Ruwais

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: UAE rolls over Pakistan’s debt another time + Adnoc-backed US LNG project hits setback

Good morning, friends. We have a brisk issue for you this morning, with the big story of the day being Adnoc’s latest agreement to supply LNG overseas — this time to Japan, marking a first in decades.

We also have more data on Dubai’s real estate prices in 2Q 2024, and the figures show signs of prices moderating. Plus: BHM Capital is planning to acquire Al Waqan Capital through a share swap.

WEATHER- Cloudy with a chance of rain: Expect partly cloudy conditions across the country, with a chance of more blowing winds and rain in the east and south, according to the National Center of Meteorology (pdf). Dubai will see the mercury hit 42°C, with an overnight low of 31°C, while temperatures will hit 41°C in Abu Dhabi, with an overnight low of 32°C.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS-

Newlywed citizens in Abu Dhabi can receive up to AED 75k annually in rental assistance for two years, as part of the benefits provided by Abu Dhabi’s Department of Community Development under the Medeem Initiative, according to a statement. Renewable for up to four years, the assistance is earmarked for Emiratis with monthly incomes below AED 50k who have applied for permanent housing benefits from the Abu Dhabi Housing Authority and do not own property. Applications will be processed in September.

The authority also introduced two housing initiatives: A partial loan deduction program offering between AED 30-40k off housing loans for families with four to six children and a monthly income of AED 21k-50k monthly; and a loan repayment extension program which allows three-year extensions for loan repayment for the fourth, fifth, and sixth child of families with incomes over AED 50k.

Background: The annual rental assistance and loan repayment deductions were approved by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan last month under the Emirati Family Growth Program. The scheme also includes extending maternity leave for women employees in the private sector to 90 days from 60.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The Abu Dhabi Food Hub and Global Auto Hub are scheduled to be operational by the end of 2025 — nearly two years after Kezad Group broke ground on the AED 330 mn projects in October 2023 — Kezad CEO Mohamed Al Khadar Al Ahmed told Al Etihad.

About the projects: The Abu Dhabi Food Hub aims to boost food security and food waste reduction in the region by facilitating food trade, processing, and distribution. Meanwhile, the Global Auto Hub, set to be the largest in the region, will feature dedicated areas for showrooms, storage, spare parts, workshops, test tracks, and auction houses, in addition to logistics services, government support, and commercial support services.

#2- Pakistan obtained assurances from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and China to roll over USD 12 bn in debt for a year, Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb confirmed to Bloomberg after a parliamentary committee meeting. The loan repayment extensions come as the country awaits final approval for a new USD 7 bn loan program with the International Monetary Fund.

REMEMBER- Pakistan recently held talks with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and China to secure financial support for three years. The country was planning to ask the UAE to roll over a USD 1 bn loan ahead of the loan’s maturity date. The government has already agreed to roll over two USD 1 bn deposits in January 2023 and January of this year, after originally having granted Pakistan the loan in 2019 under a USD 3 bn financial assistance package deposited with the State Bank of Pakistan.

#3- Adnoc-backed LNG Texas project to see delays: A US court overturned the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) decision to authorize NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG project, in which Adnoc holds an 11.7% stake, citing the company’s failure to submit an environmental impact statement, the company said yesterday. The US LNG producer said it was “disappointed” with the decision and that it disagrees with the court’s conclusions, adding that it will now assess its options.

The delay could impact the company’s final investment decision on its planned Train 4, which was scheduled for 2H 2024, the statement said. The USD 18 bn first phase of the project is expected to be completed by early 2029, Reuters reports.

REMEMBER- The Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Adnoc) acquired an 11.7% stake in the first phase of the project in May, and inked a 20-year offtake agreement under which it will receive 1.9 mn tons of LNG annually from the project’s planned Train 4 on a free-on-board basis — contingent on the company’s final investment decision.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Global markets are catching their breath after stocks staged somewhat of a comeback yesterday, recovering some of the losses from the past three days as investors eased recession concerns and Japanese equities bounced back during trading.

The rundown: The Dow gained 0.76%, while the S&P 500 rose 04%, and the Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.03%. Major tech stocks like Nvidia and Meta Platforms saw rebounds after being among some of the worst performers on Monday. Japanese stocks also boosted sentiment, with the Nikkei 225 experiencing its best day since October 2008, jumping 10.2% after a sharp decline the previous day. (CNBC | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | Reuters)

AND- US Vice President and presidential nominee Kamala Harris tapped Minnesota Governor Tim Walz — who is known for being more broadly appealing in the voter base, despite not being the most well-known contender — as her running mate for the presidential campaign. (Bloomberg | AP | CNBC | Reuters | The New York Times | Wall Street Journal | Washington Post)

IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS- Hamas tapped Yahya Sinwar as the new head of its political bureau, succeeding Ismail Haniyeh who was assassinated last week in Tehran. This makes Sinwar the main focal point for any diplomatic efforts aimed at halting the war in Gaza. (Reuters | Guardian | BBC | ABC News | Times of Israel)

OLYMPICS-

Here are the highlights from day 11 of the Paris Olympics:

Another day where history was made: Cuban wrestler Mijaín López, 41, wrote Olympic history, becoming the first athlete to ever win gold in the same event in five Olympic Games, following his victory in the Greco-Roman wrestling 130kg category, which he has dominated since the Beijing 2008 Olympics. Following his win, López left his shoes on the mat, signaling his retirement from the sport.

Canada dominates hammer throw events: Canadian Camryn Rogers won the women’s hammer throw gold yesterday, while Poland’s Anita Włodarczyk, who won gold in the last three Olympics, finished fourth. Rogers’ win comes only days after Canada’s Ethan Katzberg secured the gold in the men’s event.

Bahrain secures its first gold at Paris 2024 (and third ever): Bahrain’s 24-year-old Winfred Yavi clinched the women’s 3km steeplechase title at Paris 2024 with a spectacular final kick, setting a new Olympic record. She defeated defending champion Peruth Chemutai of Uganda, adding the Olympic gold to her world crown.

Algeria’s 25-year-old Imane Khelif advanced to the women’s welterweight boxing final with a unanimous victory over Thailand’s Janjaem Suwannapheng. Algeria currently has one gold at Paris 2024 after Kaylia Nemour became the first African athlete to earn an Olympic gymnastics medal.

Tunisia has so far secured 1 silver medal, and Egypt 1 bronze.

Day 11 gold medalists:

Women’s 3k m steeplechase: Winfred Yavi (Bahrain)
Women’s 200 m race: Gabrielle Thomas (USA)
Men’s 1.5k m: Cole Hocker (USA)
Men’s long jump: Miltiadis Tentoglou (Greece)
Women’s hammer throw: Camryn Rogers (Canada)

TEAM UAE- UAE athletes have all gone home without medals, after UAE rider Omar Al Marzooqi — the last to compete — finished 19th in the showjumping finals, exiting the competition after finishing at a time of 83.38 seconds with eight faults.

The medal standings now at the Paris Olympics:

USA (24 gold, 86 overall)
China (22 gold, 59 overall)
Australia (14 gold, 35 overall)
France (13 gold, 48 overall)
UK (12 gold, 46 overall)

Want to see when your favorite sport is on? Check out the official schedule here.

MEANWHILE- Are you planning to be in Egypt on 24 September? You may be interested in attending our 2024 Enterprise Finance Forum. Seating is strictly limited at our flagship, invitation-only forum for C-suite executives and other senior leaders.

Why attend? We’re in the early days of a generational realignment of power in our industry — in our region and beyond — and on the cusp of the biggest intergenerational transfer of wealth the world has ever seen. With that as the backdrop, we’re going to take stock of where we stand six months after the float of the EGP and ask what’s next for finance in Egypt and the wider region. Among the questions we’ll be asking:

What roles will Egypt, Saudi and the UAE play in the regional industry going forward?
What are foreign investors looking for right now?
Is real estate the only asset class in Egypt?
What does the next generation of leaders think as they take over established family businesses?

Do you want to request an invitation? Tap or click the image below.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The World ESG Summit is scheduled to take place on 20-21 August at Dusit Thani in Dubai. The two-day business conference will gather public and private sector players from key sectors like energy, utilities finance, and manufacturing to explore ESG integration across all industries.

The Sharjah Entrepreneurship Centre (Sheraa) is accepting applications for the AccessSharjah Challenge until 5 September, offering two grants worth AED 250k to two startups in the sectors of agritech and livestock health. Shortlisted startups will receive mentorship to help them expand.

Luxury travel fair Loop Beyond Borders is set to be held in Abu Dhabi from 15 to 19 September at the Saadiyat Rotana Resort, and from 18-19 September at Anantara Qasr Al Sarab. The five-day event marks the first Loop fair in the Middle East, and will enable local hospitality brands to present their offerings to ultra-luxury buyers and travel firms from Central and Eastern Europe, according to a statement.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Adnoc to provide LNG from Ruwais to Japanese gas provider Osaka Gas

Adnoc’s first long-term LNG agreement with Japan’s Osaka Gas: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) signed a long-term heads of agreement with Japan’s Osaka Gas to supply it with 0.8 mn metric tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year, an Adnoc press release reads. The LNG will be sourced from Adnoc’s Ruwais LNG project in Abu Dhabi, which is set to go live in 2028. The agreement marks the first for Adnoc with a Japanese company since the early 1990s, it said.

What we know: The LNG will be delivered to Osaka Gas’ and its Singapore-based subsidiary Osaka Gas Energy Supply and Trading’s ports, though specifics on the contract’s duration and financial details were not disclosed. An Osaka spokesperson noted that the agreement will supplement Osaka’s expiring contracts and broaden its procurement sources, Reuters reports.

Adnoc and Osaka are set to finalize a detailed sale and purchase agreement in the coming months, according to a separate Osaka press release (pdf).

What they said: “This agreement will significantly enhance the stability of Osaka Gas’ LNG procurement. It will also strengthen the foundation of our stable energy supply to customers, transition to lower carbon energy, and acceleration towards our net zero target,” Osaka Gas Executive Vice President Keiji Takemori said.

REMEMBER- This is the latest in a string of long-term LNG agreements Adnoc secured for Ruwais: Adnoc has inked offtake agreements for 70% of Ruwais’ total production capacity. This includes annual deliveries of 1 mn metric tonnes to Shell and 0.6 mn tons to Mitsui, after Adnoc sold 10% stakes in the plant to both companies, alongside TotalEnergies and BP. Adnoc also signed 15-year agreements with China’s ENN Natural Gas and SEFE Marketing & Trading Singapore for 1 mn tons each per year, along with a similar agreement with Germany’s Energie Baden-Württemberg for 0.6 mn tons annually.

Refresher: The project is expected to more than double Adnoc’s LNG production capacity to 15 mn metric tons per annum from 6 mn tons. Adnoc has already reached the final investment decision for the project at an executive board committee meeting in June, and handed out USD 5.5 bn in engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contracts to a JV between engineering companies Technip Energies and JGC Corporation, and National Marine Dredging Company.

Rental and sales trends in Dubai + the Northern Emirates in 2Q 2024, according to Asteco

Annual growth rates in Dubai’s rental market slowed to single digits in 2Q 2024, with villa rental rates growing 4% y-o-y and apartments at 8% y-o-y, according to a report by property management firm Asteco picked up by Zawya. The increase was linked to the revised RERA rental index, which allows landlords to impose higher rent increases upon renewing leases, as well as more attractive funding options for off-plan properties.

Sales prices also saw growth levels relatively unchanged from the same quarter last year, increasing 2% y-o-y, the report adds. Areas including Jumeirah Village and Business Bay logged higher price increases, driven by heightened demand and a “significant rise” in off-plan launches and newly completed developments.

Some 25k residential units are slated for handover in Dubai in 2H 2024, with potential delays to 2025, Asteco expects. The emirate handed over a little over 6.7k units in 2Q.

ICYMI #1- CBRE had noted a 21.3% y-o-y pickup in residential prices in Dubai in 1H 2024, with apartment prices increasing by 20.7% y-o-y, and villa prices increasing by 24.3% y-o-y, without clarifying the breakdown of price increases in 1Q and 2Q 2024. It also expected some 40.6k to be delivered in 2H 2024.

ICYMI #2- Property transactions in Dubai hit a new record in 2Q 2024, climbing to some 48k, according to Springfield. Various reports valued the total transaction value during the quarter near AED 124.4 bn.

AL AIN + THE NORTHERN EMIRATES-

The Northern Emirates welcomed more tenants from Dubai in 2Q 2024, on the back of lower rental rates, improved development standards, infrastructure, and flexible working arrangements, the report adds. The region saw high sales activity during the quarter, alongside steady project launches, and logged greater rental growth for typical apartments compared to high-end properties.

Al Ain recorded steady apartment rental rate growth during the quarter, with villa prices up 2% y-o-y and apartment prices remaining steady y-o-y.

BHM to raise capital to AED 5 bn, acquire Al Waqan Capital

BHM proposes AED 4.85 bn capital increase to acquire Al Waqan: Dubai-based financial services firm BHM Capital’s board has proposed a AED 4.85 bn capital increase to carry out an acquisition of Core International Holdings’ investment arm Al Waqan Capital through a share swap, according to a disclosure (pdf). The capital boost will raise the company’s total issued capital to AED 5.02 bn from AED 173.4 mn. Further information about the transaction and its timeline were not disclosed.

About Al Waqan: Waqan manages an asset portfolio valued at AED 723 mn and holds stakes in Gulfnav, Takaful Emarat, and Taaleem. Core said it plans to ramp up its capital market investments through Al Waqan in April, as part of plans to invest AED 5 bn over the next five years to boost its portfolio holdings in education, real estate, and financial management. In addition to Al Waqan, Core has four subsidiaries, spanning real estate, education, and financial services.

What’s next? BHM Capital will hold a general assembly on 26 August to approve and ratify the decision to boost its capital and move forward with the acquisition.

DP World to open long-awaited London Gateway’s fourth berth this month

Dubai is investing AED 2.1 bn to expand the DP World-operated London Gateway, the UK’s largest port upon completion, Dubai’s First Deputy Ruler Maktoum bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum said, according to a Dubai Media Office statement. Construction work on the London Gateway expansion project, which will handle around 55% of the UK’s South East cargo, kicked off nearly two years ago.

DP World is set to open its GBP 350 mn fourth berth at the London Gateway later this month, the statement said.

Details: The fourth berth is slated to boost port handling capacity to 3.4 mn containers, up from 2.4 mn containers, by increasing the total berth length to 1.68 km, according to the statement.

Boosting trade: Maktoum emphasized Dubai’s goal to enhance UK trade and logistics cooperation through the gateway. The completion of the logistics park is set to double DP World’s UK workforce from 6k across DP World’s 34 locations throughout the UK to 12k.

Looking ahead: DP World plans to develop berths five, six, and seven at London Gateway, the statement said, without specifying the investment ticket or timeline. The move looks to meet the additional capacity needs expected in UK markets starting 2027.

Agthia, Empower report 2Q 2024 earnings

EMPOWER-

Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation’s (Empower) net income inched down 5% y-o-y to AED 224 mn in 2Q 2024, according to the company’s financial statements (pdf). Empower recorded an 11.4% y-o-y increase in its top line to AED 813.8 mn, amid surging demand for district cooling services, with more real estate developers looking to optimize energy consumption and reduce emissions, as well as a surge in occupancy rates.

In 1H 2024, the company’s net income fell 3% y-o-y to AED 389.5 mn, while revenues grew 10% y-o-y to AED 1.35 bn, according to a separate earnings release (pdf). The company also boosted its total connected capacity to more than 1.53 mn refrigeration tons, with some 1.73 mn RT contracted. Consumption also went up 20% during 1H 2024, due to rising demand and consumption at Dubai International Airport.

AGTHIA-

ADQ-owned F&B firm Agthia Group’s net income rose 31.8% y-o-y to AED 62.4 mn in 2Q 2024, according to its financial statements (pdf). The company booked AED 1.08 bn in revenues, up 6% y-o-y. Agthia’s growth came from various business segments, including 20% y-o-y growth in the company’s snacking portfolio in the first half of the year and 25% growth in its agri-business segment, according to a separate earnings release (pdf).

On a six-month basis, the company saw its net income increase 32% y-o-y to AED 190 mn in 1H 2024, while revenues increased 15% y-o-y to AED 2.53 bn, driven by AED 120 mn one-off wheat trading sales in its agri-business in 1Q, as well as a “continued shift of the group’s product portfolio towards higher growth segments in key target markets.” The company attributed 45% of its growth in 1H to innovation, and said group revenues would have grown 21.3% y-o-y without the impact of the currency devaluation in Egypt.

Looking ahead: The company anticipates revenue growth between 10% and 12% in FY 2024, impacted by “currency headwinds on the group’s Egyptian operations,” the release said.

Dividends: Agthia proposed AED 85.7 mn in interim dividends for 1H 2024, representing a 25% y-o-y increase. The dividend payment is subject to shareholder approval.

Citigroup taps Yeo Wenxian as wealth management head for South Asia and the UAE

Citigroup appointed Yeo Wenxian (LinkedIn) as head of wealth management for South Asia and the UAE, Bloomberg reports, citing a memo it received. Effective 1 November, Yeo will report to Citi’s head of wealth, Andy Sieg (LinkedIn). She will also assume the role of CEO of Citibank Singapore, pending regulatory approval.

Yeo has 13 years of wealth management experience, leading onshore and offshore operations at Singapore’s DBS Treasures, with previous experience as vice president of investment banking at JP Morgan.

The Sharjah Executive Council formed the Sharjah Supreme Committee for Human Resources during a meeting yesterday, Wam reports. The committee will be chaired by the Sharjah Department of Human Resources Chairman Abdullah Ibrahim Al Zaabi, with the Department of Culture Chairman Abdullah Mohammed Salem Al Owais serving as vice chairman.

A look at Mubadala’s “tough but constructive” approach with its European investments

Mubadala’s focus on restructuring its European startup portfolio got plenty of ink in the Financial Times and Bloomberg, as the sovereign fund reacts to a sharp drop in the startups’ valuations since it ramped up its investment in the region, in an effort to salvage “bns of USD” invested in European startups. At least four of its portfolio companies have undergone either major structural change, refinancing, or a replacement of leadership this year, Bloomberg said.

The CEO of one of the startups it backs called Mubadala “tough but constructive,” while a Mubadala spokesperson said it is often the only investor willing to continue to support these companies financially through difficult times.

Mubadala is in the same boat as other investors grappling with the crashing valuations of European startups as “interest rates and choppy markets have led to a broad slowdown in venture capital investments,” the paper wrote.

Background: The sovereign wealth fund has already exerted pressure to restructure and shake up the management of two European startups it has invested in. The wealth fund invested USD 250 mn in Turkish food delivery startup Getir but split the business into two, and took over its Turkish grocery unit. It also attempted — to no avail — to split German ins. tech startup Wefox and offload its core business to UK ins. broker Ardonagh Group, a rival backed by Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia). Mubadala had led a USD 450 mn funding round that valued the company at USD 4.5 bn in 2022.

Technomak Energy is expanding its operations in Sharjah's Hamriyah Free Zone with a new 500k sqft factory

MANUFACTURING-

Technomak to build a new manufacturing facility in Hamriyah Free Zone: Engineering firm Technomak signed an MoU with Sharjah’s Hamriyah Free Zone to add a new steel structure production facility there, according to a statement. The move is expected to raise the company’s total investments in the zone to AED 661 mn from AED 440.7 mn and ramp up production from its facilities in the zone to 28k tons per year from 16k tons.

ENERGY-

Emarat Aloula Industries awarded its largest contract ever: Abu Dhabi-based fabrication company Emarat Aloula Industries was awarded a AED 260 mn contract, its largest to date, by Italy’s engineering group Maire Tecnimont to supply 1.4 mn inch-dia pipes for Adnoc’s Hail and Ghasha gas development project, according to a statement.

Background: Adnoc awarded Maire a USD 8.7 bn contract in October 2023 to install gas processing and sulfur recovery units for the Hail and Gasha project, in addition to utilities and pipelines. The offshore project aims to capture 1.5 mn tonnes of carbon per year — which will be transported onshore and stored underground — and produce low-carbon hydrogen.

BUSINESS-

UAE gets its first digital escrow platform: Trustin, the first digital escrow platform in the UAE and Middle East, officially launched after obtaining financial service permission from the Abu Dhabi Global Market Financial Services Regulatory Authority, according to a press release. The platform — hosted on Amazon Web Service — aims to bypass deferred payments, post-dated cheques, and non-payment issues affecting businesses and consumers using traditional escrow services.

The platform is integrated with an undisclosed bank in the UAE regulated by the CBUAE to safeguard client money in a separate account, the company’s co-founder, Parvez Akram Siddiqui, said.

FINANCE-

Nuvama Private lands in Dubai: Nuvama Private, the private banking arm of India’s Nuvama Wealth Management, launched a regional office in Dubai International Financial Center to serve the Middle East region, Wam reported. The office seeks to cater to Indian expats who want to invest back in their home country, Head of Nuvama Private Alok Saigal told Bloomberg. The firm’s Dubai branch comprises three bankers, with plans to hire three more by year-end. Its international clients group head Vivek Sharma (LinkedIn) will lead the Dubai team from Singapore.

Nuvama Private expected to facilitate access to Indian markets: Nuvama Private — which received a category III C license from the Central Bank of the UAE — is one of few Indian private banks permitted to offer investment products as ultra-wealthy clients who wanted to invest in India’s public and private markets have, traditionally, relied on local banks and external asset managers, according to Wam.

Nuvama is doubling down on offshore business: The company — which has USD 22 bn in assets under management — aims to generate as much as 25% of its revenue from offshore business within 3-5 years, Saigal said.

INVESTMENT-

Al Ahli to establish first outlet mall in Bahrain: Dubai Outlet Mall operator Al Ahli Holding Group will develop Bahrain’s Mall of Dilmunia as the first outlet mall in Bahrain, under a new partnership, according to a press release.

BANKING-

Ruya customers can use Lulu Exchange’s network to deposit money into their accounts: Customers of Islamic, digital-only bank Ruya can now deposit money into their accounts instantly and without charge at any of Lulu Exchange ’s 140 branches under a partnership inked by the two parties, according to a statement picked up by Zawya.

TOURISM-

Dubai to get hop-on, hop-off buses in September: Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority plans to launch a hop-on, hop-off bus service next month, allowing tourists to explore the city’s top attractions and landmarks, according to a statement from the authority. The service will operate daily from 10am to 10pm, beginning at Dubai Mall, with designated stops at Dubai Frame, Heritage Village, Museum of the Future, Gold Souk, Dubai Mall, La Mer Beach, Jumeirah Mosque, and City Walk.

Pressure builds on the Fed to cut rates following market meltdown

The last couple of days have been a rollercoaster ride for market-watchers, after a massive stock selloff Monday saw markets somewhat recover following reassuring comments from US Federal Reserve officials and positive US service-sector job growth data. Yet the brief panic indicates that the market fundamentals undergirding this year’s equities gains may not be entirely sound — spelling further turbulence as the Fed attempts to chart a soft landing for the US economy.

The roots of the selloff: Monday’s meltdown follows the buildup of a confluence of pressures over the last few weeks, including jitteriness around the big tech stocks that have driven Wall Street to new heights; the Bank of Japan’s late-July rate hikes after decades of ultra-loose monetary policy; lower-than-expected US job growth numbers for July that heightened fears of a US recession; and disappointing earnings reports from major companies like Microsoft. While Tuesday’s rebound suggests that the selloff spiral may have been somewhat of an overreaction, some of these developments point to frailties in the assumptions undergirding financial market gains — including unfettered AI euphoria, confidence in continued loose Japanese monetary policy, and a surprisingly robust US economy.

As the immediate storm dies down, all eyes are fixed squarely on the Fed. Monday’s stock market plunge was accompanied by a surge in US government debt, with two-year treasury yields falling below those of the ten-year notes for the first time in two years. This phenomenon, known as yield curve disinversion, has preceded the last four US recessions, and has heightened fears that the Fed’s decision to put off rate-cuts at its last meeting has tipped the US economy into recession. Markets, which last week began pricing in a hefty 50 bps rate cut in September, are now beginning to bet that the Fed will move even quicker to cut rates — possibly before the central bank’s next meeting in mid-September.

A mid-meeting rate-cut would be a highly unusual move from the Fed, which largely refrains from making cuts between meetings unless the US economy is rapidly deteriorating. But even without a mid-meeting cut, this recent episode is sure to have caught the Fed’s attention, chief US economist at GlobalData TS Lombard Steven Blitz tells the Wall Street Journal. “The markets are speaking to the Fed. They’re telling the Fed, ‘You’re too tight, and no, you can’t presume that everything is going to roll along merrily while you take the time to cut.’”

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the green in early trading this morning, with the Nikkei and Kospi the biggest gainers, up 3.4% and 2.4%, respectively.

ADX	9,084	+1.2% (YTD: -5.2%)
DFM	4,137	+2.3% (YTD: +1.9%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	3599	+2.9% (YTD: -6.3%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	5% o/n	4.7% 1 yr
TASI	11,679	+1.5% (YTD: -2.4%)
EGX30	28,210	+1.3% (YTD: +13.3%)
S&P 500	5,240	+1.0% (YTD: +9.9%)
FTSE 100	8,027	+0.2% (YTD: +3.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,575	+0.1% (YTD: +1.2%)
Brent crude	USD 76.48	+0.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.02	+0.3%
Gold	USD 2,429	-0.1%
BTC	USD 55,934	+3.7% (YTD: +32.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 1.2% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. The index is down 5.2% YTD.

In the green: Gulf Medical Projects Company (+8%), Ghitha Holding (+6.2%) and Al Dar Properties (+6.1%).

In the red: Response Plus Holding (-4.2%), National Bank of Umm Al Qaiwain (-4.1%) and National Marine Dredging (-3.6%).

Over on the DFM, rose 2.3% on turnover of 718.4 mn. Meanwhile Nasdaq Dubai rose 2.9%

UAE and Kenya eye more investments + cooperation

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Kenyan President William Ruto discussed boosting investments and cooperation on development during a phone call, Wam writes. Both heads of state reviewed cooperation in the economy, investment, renewable energy, technology, and digital infrastructure. The UAE and Kenya wrapped up talks on a trade and economic partnership agreement in February, with plans to formalize it soon.

OTHER DIPLOMACY NEWS-

President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and outgoing French President Emmanuel Macron discussed strengthening bilateral ties and urged restraint amid regional tensions, calling for a ceasefire and renewed peace efforts for Gaza. (Wam)

CALENDAR

AUGUST

14 August (Wednesday): UAE to participate in ceasefire talks co-mediated by the US and KSA between the warring factions in Sudan.

20-21 August (Tuesday-Wednesday): The World ESG Summit, Dubai.

21-22 August (Wednesday-Thursday): Rex Fuels Global Expo & Conference 2024- Bitumen, Petrochemicals & Products, Dubai.

21-22 August (Wednesday-Thursday): Dubai Business Forum in Beijing, China.

25 August (Sunday): Deadline to register for the AI Challenge.

Signposted to happen sometime in mid-August:

New regulations on telemarketing calls will go into effect

SEPTEMBER

4-5 September (Wednesday-Thursday): 2024 International Government Communication Forum, Expo Centre Sharjah, Sharjah.

5 September (Thursday): Deadline to apply for the sixth edition of Access Sharjah Challenge.

9-11 September (Monday-Wednesday): World Utilities Congress, Abu Dhabi.

10-11 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): MENA PPP forum, Jumeirah Emirates Towers, Dubai.

10-11 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): MENA District Cooling Projects & MENA Cool Forum, Grand Hyatt Dubai, Dubai Healthcare City, Dubai.

11-12 September (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA oil and gas digitization conference, Abu Dhabi.

16-18 September (Monday-Wednesday): World Utilities Congress, Abu Dhabi.

15-19 September (Sunday-Thursday): Loop Beyond Borders, Abu Dhabi.

23-25 September (Monday-Wednesday): WorldFreezonesOrganization’s Annual International Conference and Exhibition, Dubai.

25-26 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Green Steel Summit, Dubai, UAE.

25-26 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Global Aerospace Summit, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

28-30 September (Saturday-Monday): World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) Biennial General Meeting, Abu Dhabi.

30 September (Monday): Dubai Podfest, World Trade Center, Dubai.

OCTOBER

1-3 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Water, Energy and Environment Technology Exhibition, Dubai.

2-3 October (Wednesday-Thursday): The World Green Economy Summit, World Trade Center Dubai.

7-8 October (Monday-Tuesday): Forex expo, World Trade Center, Dubai.

8-9 October (Tuesday-Wednesday)): Global Trade and Supply Chain Summit, Dubai.

8-10 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The Global Rail Transport Infrastructure Exhibition and Conference(Global Rail), Abu Dhabi.

14-18 October (Monday-Friday): IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems, Adnec Centre, Abu Dhabi.

15 October (Tuesday): Deadline for the European Commission to make a decision on its probe into e&’s acquisition of PPF’s Eastern European assets.

21-22 October (Monday-Tuesday): Port Development MEA Forum, Dubai.

21-22 October (Monday-Tuesday): Roads, Bridges, Tunnels MENA Conference, Dubai.

21-22 October (Monday-Tuesday): The Alternative Investment Summit, Dubai.

24-27 October (Thursday-Sunday): International Sports Medicine Conference, Dubai.

26 October (Saturday): UFC 308: TOPURIA vs HOLLOWAY, Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi.

26-27 October (Saturday-Sunday): International Conference on Tourism, Transport, and Logistics, Dubai.

28-29 October (Monday-Tuesday): MENA Climate Proof Forum, Dubai.

29 October-2 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Abu Dhabi Early Childhood Week, Abu Dhabi.

30 October-1 November (Wednesday-Friday): World Cities Cultural Summit, Dubai.

NOVEMBER

3-10 November (Sunday-Sunday): Dubai Premier Padel P1, Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Stadium, Dubai.

4-7 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC, Abu Dhabi.

4-7 November (Wednesday-Saturday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi.

4-7 November (Wednesday-Saturday): ADIPEC Decarbonisation Accelerator, Abu Dhabi.

6 November (Friday): World Finance Forum, Dubai.

11 November (Monday): Dubai Diamond Conference, Jafza One Convention Centre, Dubai.

11-12 November (Monday-Tuesday): META Cinema Forum, Dubai.

11-14 November (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference, Abu Dhabi.

11-14 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi.

18-20 November (Monday-Wednesday): Fastmarkets Middle East Iron & Steel 2024, Dubai.

20-22 November (Wednesday-Friday): Xpanse Abu Dhabi, Adnec Centre, Abu Dhabi

22-23 November (Friday-Saturday): Global Meet on Electronics & Electrical Engineering (GMEEE), Dubai.

23 November (Saturday): Wireless Festival Middle East, Etihad Park, Abu Dhabi.

26-27 November (Tuesday-Wednesday) Global Food Security Summit, Adnec Centre Abu Dhabi.

27-28 November (Wednesday-Thursday): RAK Energy Summit, Al Hamra International Exhibition and Conference Centre, Ras Al Khaimah.

Signposted to happen ahead of ADIPEC:

Changemakers Majlis, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-3 December (Monday-Tuesday): National Day, public holiday.

5-8 December (Thursday-Sunday): Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Yas Marina Circuit.

8-12 December (Sunday-Thursday): International Desalination and Reuse Association World Congress, Adnec Centre Abu Dhabi.

9-10 December (Saturday-Sunday): The Bitcoin Mena Conference, Adnec Centre Abu Dhabi.

9-12 December (Saturday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Business Aviation, Dubai World Central.

10-12 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Investor Relations Association (MEIRA), Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers Hotel, Abu Dhabi.

11-13 December (Friday-Sunday): European-Arab Medical Congress, Abu Dhabi.

JANUARY 2025

1 January (Wednesday): ADGM to slash licensing fees for retail and non-financial firms, and hike fees for finance firms.

14-16 January (Tuesday-Thursday): World Energy Summit, Abu Dhabi.

FEBRUARY 2025

24-25 February (Monday-Tuesday): 3rd World Passenger Experience Forum, Dubai.

24-26 February (Monday-Wednesday): Connecting Hydrogen MENA, Dubai.

APRIL 2025

16-17 April: Global Ports Forum, Dubai.

MAY 2025

26-28 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arab Media Summit, World Trade Centre, Dubai.

OCTOBER 2025

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Centre.

Signposted to happen sometime before the end of the year:

Spinneys inaugurates three more stores in KSA

Signposted to happen in 2025:

6-11 April (Sunday-Friday): Geo-Spatial Week 2025, Dubai.
3-4 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Make-A-Wish International’s Global Wish summit, Abu Dhabi.
TBD: The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
TBD: e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.

Signposted to happen sometime in the fall of 2025:

2025 Games of the Future, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Abu Dhabi to host the 47th Chess Olympiad.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Dubai to host the International Conference on Computer Vision.

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