Good morning, friends. We have another brisk issue for you this morning, dominated by earnings, debt, and AI news, as well as updates from the World Economic Forum’s special meeting in Riyadh, which wrapped yesterday.

THE BIG STORY here at home is news that ADQ could tap debt markets with its first USD-denominated bond issuance. Also worth your attention: Aldar Properties is planning a USD 6.8 bn luxury development in Abu Dhabi | Agility will hit the ADX this week | Brookfield snapped up a controlling stake in Gulf Islamic Investments’ realty platform.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS-

#1- WEATHER- It’s another warm day in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with the mercury hitting 35°C, with an overnight low of 27°C.

REMEMBER- We’re in for more rain and stormy weather as of tomorrow evening, with the National Center of Meteorology warning of strong wind, thunder, and lightning until Thursday, with a chance of light to moderate rainfall on Friday and Saturday.

#2- The Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) is extending its decision to exempt sustainability-linked bond and sukuk issuers from paying registration fees, for another year, state news agency Wam reports. The exemption was offered last year in a bid to encourage issuances of green bonds and boost sustainable development projects.

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM-

The economy is expected to have grown between 4-5% in 1Q 2024, Economy Minister Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri told Al Arabiya (watch, runtime: 09:35) on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s two-day special meeting in Riyadh, which wrapped yesterday. The 1H 2024 figures should be out in September.

Energy and Investment Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei took to the stage for several energy-focused sessions at the forum, Wam reported. Al Mazrouei pinpointed three challenges hindering the rapid deployment of renewables in emerging markets: Regulatory barriers, innovative financing, and lack of sufficient digital solutions.

The minister also told CNBC he agrees with JPMorgan’s call for a “reality check” on the global transition away from fossil fuels (watch, runtime: 01:12). JPMorgan had said in a note to clients that the transition to renewables could take “generations” to complete, especially in light of global headwinds, high interest rates, and geopolitical crises.

“The world is not the same… Some can afford it. They worked on fiscal changes, they adjusted their energy costs. Others have not,” Al Mazrouei said.

MORE FROM THE FORUM- The GCC’s unified single tourist visa is well underway, AlKhaleej quotes Al Marri as saying. “Once it comes into effect, it will contribute to highlighting the diverse tourism destinations in GCC countries, attracting and retaining tourists for longer periods, thus increasing the number of hotel guests and making the region one of the leading destinations for regional and international tourists alike,” Al Marri said. The visa is expected to roll out later this year or next year once all GCC nations have streamlined entry for foreign tourists.

Residential prices in Dubai could rise between 5-10% in the near term, Damac Properties CEO Hussain Sajwani told Al Arabiya (watch, runtime: 01:09) at the forum. Prices at Damac Properties’ residential communities have only risen about 3% over the past six months, he added. He also notes rising interest in Dubai real estate among Indian and Chinese investors.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Spinneys’ book building period — which has seen “significant” oversubscription — wraps today. The final pricing for Spinneys’ IPO is expected to be at the top end of the indicative price range at AED 1.53, which would see the company raising AED 1.38 bn (USD 375 mn), according to the terms of the transaction seen by Bloomberg. Retail investors have snagged all shares available since subscription opened last week, signaling strong interest in regional listings. The institutional investor subscription period ends today, with the final share price set to be announced tomorrow.

Remember: The company plans to offer a total of 900 mn of its shares — good for a 25% stake — on the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), with shares expected to begin trading on 9 May. The IPO will be among the first by a family-owned business in the UAE.

SIGNS OF THE TIMES-

#1- Move over, F1. Abu Dhabi just had its first AI driverless car race: Four AI-powered driverless cars raced at the Yas Marina Circuit in the inaugural Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League (A2RL) organized by research and development fund Aspire, Al Khaleej reports. Competing teams coded AI algorithms for racing, with Technical University of Munich emerging victorious. The race attracted 10k spectators, and saw the champions bag a USD 2.25 mn award.

#2- All Dubai government entities will appoint chief AI officers as part of a new AI blueprint aimed at adding AED 100 bn from digital transformation to the emirate’s economy, according to an X post by Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed. The blueprint will also see the emirate introduce a comprehensive program geared towards attracting data centers, AI company licenses, as well as AI incubators, the crown prince said, without disclosing further details.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Has Sidara just offloaded a USD 1.4 bn stake in Worley? That’s according to the Australian FinancialReview, which reports that infrastructure group Sidara (formerly Dar Group) — engineering group Worley’s largest shareholder — has sold a 19% stake in the company through a block trade transaction expected to be worth USD 1.4 bn. This leaves Sidara with a 4.5% stake in Worley.

Brokers were asking fund managers to bid at a share price of USD 14.25-15 share apiece, 8-12.6% lower than its share price at the latest market close, the AFR reports.

Background: Sidara has been a shareholder of Worley’s since 2016, and launched a failed takeover bid in 2017 that Worley said at the time “materially undervalued the company.”

ADVISORS- Goldman Sachs and Citi were mandated on the selldown, while Rothschild Australia acted as strategic advisor to Sidara.

#2- Arqaam Capital is bullish about UAE + KSA growth: The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, are expected to see strong growth this year, Arqaam Capital’s Equities Research Head Jaap Meijer told Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 4:44). Meijer pointed to aviation, oil and gas services, healthcare, and infrastructure as his big picks for what will drive growth this year, pointing out that new contracts and infrastructure developments, including the construction of the new terminal at Al Maktoum airport, are creating additional growth potential.

Equities are going to do well — and we’ll have banks to thank: Banks in the UAE and Saudi Arabia can expect to maintain healthy margins amid a persistent high interest rate environment, which Meijer said “is highly positive on top of very buoyant balance sheet growth.” Meanwhile, many UAE banks are filling in a liquidity gap in the Saudi market, which is also helping to stimulate lending growth.

#3- Dana Gas halts production in Iraq: UAE-based natural gas producer Dana Gas temporarily suspended production in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, after a drone attack hit its Khor Mor gas field on Friday, killing at least four Yemeni workers, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The firm said it would resume operations “as soon as it is safe to do so.” It is collaborating with the Kurdistan regional and Iraqi federal governments to ramp up security measures.

Fast facts: Dana Gas saw an 8% increase in production from Khor Mor last year to 36.9k barrels of oil equivalent per day.

DATA POINTS-

#1-Gross bank assets crossed the AED 4.2 tn mark at the end of February, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s (CBUAE) latest monetary and banking developments report (pdf). Gross credit grew a marginal 0.9% to AED 2 tn, while domestic credit rose by 1.1%, driven by increases in credit to various sectors: government (5.5%), public sector (0.2%), private sector (0.6%), and non-banking financial institutions (1.7%).

Total bank deposits reached AED 2.54 tn, propelled by a 2.5% increase in resident deposits and a 5% uptick in non-resident deposits. Increases in resident deposits were primarily driven by an 18.4% surge in public sector deposits and a 2% rise in deposits by the private sector.

Meanwhile, the CBUAE’s total foreign assets reached AED 708 bn at the end of February, marking an increase of approximately AED 203 bn, or 40.2% y-o-y, according to the Bank’s latest statistics (pdf). This is attributed to the increase in current account balances and deposits held with banks abroad.

Foreign investments made by the CBUAE hit AED 189.37 bn during the period, up 28.9% y-o-y.

#2- Dubai ranked first in the Arab world and 11th globally in the 2024 Leading Maritime Cities (LMC) report(pdf). The emirate jumped two places from its position in the 2022 LMC report, owing to “strategic plans and initiatives” rolled out by the Dubai Maritime Authority to ramp up competitiveness and drive sustainable growth in the maritime sector, focusing on green technology. It also secured the second position as a favored destination for relocating shipping operations, after Singapore.

Abu Dhabi also jumped 10 places to rank 22nd on the list, as a result of its “strategic public policies and consistent investment,” according to the report. Both emirates topped indicators for entrepreneurship in the report.

#3- Abu Dhabi Airports saw a 35.6% y-o-y increase in passenger traffic in 1Q 2024, rising to 6.9 mn passengers, it said in a statement. Zayed International Airport hosted 6.8 mn passengers, up 36% y-o-y, and recorded a 26.6% y-o-y increase in flight movements on the back of returned and newly launched operations, which bumped up the airport’s total number of regularly scheduled operators to 29 airlines. Zayed’s top destination cities during the quarter included London, followed by Mumbai, Kochi, Delhi, and Doha.

Cargo traffic was also up during the quarter, with 162k tonnes handled across all Abu Dhabi Airports’ airports, up 25.6% y-o-y.

OUR NEXT CONFERENCE IN CAIRO-

Foreign investors are falling in love with Egypt again… Foreign investors we speak with (debt, equity, and strategic alike) have growing appetite for Egypt. They’re buying into local debt, eyeing promising shares, and committing bns of USD to both new ventures here and the growth of their existing businesses. They like the Egypt story that’s taking shape after the float of the EGP, and its competitive advantages are clear to many of them: It’s a massive consumer opportunity and a regional export hub of tomorrow.

The Enterprise Optimism Forum 2024 will do exactly what it says on the tin: Spark conversations about a future that sees Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the the UAE at the heart of a more vital Middle East economy — and provide an early, actionable roadmap for those who are “long Egypt.”

We’ll be talking with you about the agenda over the coming couple of weeks. It features speakers from Egypt and abroad who are future-proofing their businesses and angling to capture tomorrow’s opportunities — and who aren’t afraid to answer some tough questions.

*** Interested in attending? Tap or click here to let us know. Seating is limited.

***

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Gaza leads the front pages of the global business press, with hope rising in some quarters that an Egypt-brokered ceasefire agreement may be near.

Could fresh talks begin as soon as today in Cairo? Israel has reportedly agreed to send a team of negotiators, and Hamas said it is “studying” a ceasefire proposal, but hasn’t yet confirmed it will participate.

The downside risk: An unconfirmed report by Egyptian broadcaster Al Qahera News claims the Hamas delegation left Cairo overnight and will respond in writing to the proposal (watch, runtime: 0:22).

The hope: We could see something along the lines of a 40-day ceasefire in Gaza and the freeing of some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails in return for the release of c. 33 Israelis held by Hamas. The exact details vary from report to report.

Antony Blinken sounded like a hawker in Khan El Khalili as he told Hamas to accept Israel’s “extraordinarily generous” offer, hinting it wouldn’t be on the table for long. The US Secretary of State is expected to leave Riyadh for Jordan and Israel, staying close to the region after meeting yesterday with Arab foreign ministers. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry would say only that he’s “hopeful.”

The spin: Israel has “significantly softened” its stance.

Joe Biden put in calls to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to push forward the talks, while Secretary of State Antony Blinken met yesterday in Riyadh with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

MEANWHILE- US politicians are circling the wagons and threatening the International Criminal Court “with US retaliation” if it goes ahead with plans to issue arrest warrants for Israeli officials over the conduct of the war in Gaza. Some lawmakers are already preparing legislation that would make the sanctions real. The Biden administration has claimed the ICC doesn’t have jurisdiction over events in Gaza and said that arrest warrants could stop movement toward a ceasefire.

AND- At least 20 lawyers in the Biden administration are breaking ranks with the White House, calling on the president to block further arms shipments to Israel.

AWAY FROM GAZA- Worries are mounting about the chances of mass killing in Darfur. | Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is not resigning. | The FT’s obsession with Chinese spies continues.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Make it in the Emirates (MIITE) Start-up Pitch Competition application deadline has been extended until 5 May for local and international tech companies in AI, 3D printing, and decarbonization in the industrial sector, Wam reports. The competition aims to encourage technological innovation in the industrial sector, covering areas such as aviation, healthcare, automotive, electronics, energy, customized manufacturing, decarbonization, renewable energy, artificial intelligence and digitization, and carbon capture and storage.

The Arabian Travel Market is taking place from 6-9 May at DWTC Dubai under the theme Transforming Travel Through Entrepreneurship. The event will focus on issues relating to entrepreneurial strategies.

TheAnnual Investment Meeting (AIM) Congress is scheduled to be held on 7-9 May at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre. Gathering senior government officials and industry experts, the summit will focus on exploring means of strengthening the economy under the theme Resilient, Sustainable Economic Growth – Creating a Healthy and Prospective Investment through FDI and FPI.

The Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference is set to take place from 20-22 May in Dubai, hosted by the Emirates National Oil Company and under the organization of S&P Global Commodity Insights. The theme of the conference is “Evolving Core Energy Markets within a Sustainable Landscape.”

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.