Analysts, fund managers no longer expect a US recession this year: Only a quarter of analysts and forecasters think the US is, already in, or will fall into a recession in 2024, according to an National Association for Business Economics survey (pdf). The survey found that 22% of those surveyed see a recession happening in 2025, while 36% see this happening in 2026 or later.

But inflation forecasts aren’t as rosy: Two thirds believe it is likely or very likely that the US will end the year with inflation still above 2.5% — 20% above the Fed’s target for the year.

Analysts are losing sleep over China’s economy, Israel’s war on Gaza, and the US elections: A commanding 97% of those surveyed thought there was a moderate to high probability that instability in the Middle East could adversely impact the economy by disrupting global supply chains and pushing Brent crude above USD 90 a barrel. Similarly concerning to analysts and forecasters was instability around the US elections, which 85% saw having a moderate to high probability of having a negative effect on the economy. China’s stagnant economy also had 90% of respondents worrying about its effect on the US economy.

ADX

9,395

+0.5% (YTD: -1.9%)

DFM

4,223

+0.1% (YTD: +4.0%)

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20

3,795

+1.4% (YTD: -1.2%)

USD : AED CBUAE

Buy 3.67

Sell 3.67

EIBOR

5.1% o/n

5.1% 1 yr

TASI

12,438

+0.3% (YTD: +3.9%)

EGX30

28,874

+1.0% (YTD: +16.0%)

S&P 500

4,974

+0.4% (YTD: +4.1%)

FTSE 100

7,568

+0.8% (YTD: -2.1%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,709

+0.4% (YTD: +4.2%)

Brent crude

USD 81.60

-1.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 1.61

-4.7%

Gold

USD 2,004

-0.1%

BTC

USD 51,737

+4.6% (YTD: +22.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of AED 1 bn. The index is down 1.9% YTD.

In the green: Emirates Stallions Group (+14.8%), RAPCO Investment (+9.8%) and Abu Dhabi National Hotels (+5.5%).

In the red: Fujairah Cement Industries (-8.1%), Eshraq Investments (-7.5%) and Julphar Gulf Pharmaceutical Industries (-6.8%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.1% on turnover of AED 478.7 mn, while in Nasdaq Dubai, the index rose 1.4%.

Asian markets are comfortably in the green in early trading this morning as they start clawing back yesterday’s losses. Europe is looking to open in the green, while US stock futures were essentially flat at dispatch time this morning as Wall Street to build on yesterday’s modest rebound.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

#1-The National Bank of Umm Al Qaiwain received central bank approval to distribute AED 300 mn in dividends for 2023, equivalent to 15% of the share capital, according to the bank’s financial statements (pdf).

#2- Union Properties issues final notice following ex-chairman’s payment default: Union Properties will proceed with asset sales after former chairman Khalifa Al Hammadi failed to meet the terms of a settlement agreement, according to a DFM disclosure. The agreement, initiated in October, obligated Al Hammadi and others to repay AED 620 mn to Union Properties, the terms of which were not met, Gulf News reports.

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