ICAEW sees GDP growing 2.4% this year: The economy is expected to grow 2.4% in 2023, slowing from the 6.6% growth registered in 2022, “amid a drag from the oil sector,” the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) said in a report yesterday. The country’s GDP growth came in at 3.7% in 2Q 2023 “owing to the strong non-oil sector, with high-frequency indicators highlighting ongoing resilience.”

But next year will see growth doubling: ICAEW sees GDP growth accelerating in 2024 to register 4.8% as oil production cuts, which are having a short-term downside impact on growth, will begin to “unwind through 2024.”

These figures don’t quite match other projections: Last month, the World Bank said in its Gulf Economic Update that the economy will grow 3.4% this calendar year before picking up slightly to 3.7% in 2024.

Growth will be underpinned by non-oil economy + positive fiscal outlook: With the government working on expanding non-oil growth, ICAEW sees logistics, technology, infrastructure and finance as being “among the key beneficiary sectors.” The country has a positive fiscal outlook, with expectations of maintaining a fiscal surplus of more than 5% annually over the next few years, ICAEW said. While the fiscal surplus breached 9% of GDP in 2022 on the back of higher oil revenues, “the strong non-oil sector growth has underpinned an alternative, less volatile revenue stream, with streamlined tax services enabling more effective collection and monitoring.”

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