War hits prices in Dubai as inflation reaches new high

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Fuel prices are up again + Some hope for ADX’s IPO pipeline?

Good morning and welcome back, everyone, from a long and much-deserved Eid break. In case you haven’t been tuned in to the latest from the war, we have the latest updates on the on-again-off-again talks below. Other than that, we come bearing analysis of a slew of macro data released over the Eid break.

Bad news first: The uneasy standoff between the US and Iran has not yielded an agreement yet, and it’s anybody’s guess whether the fighting will continue at this point.

The war’s impact has already filtered through to prices in Dubai, which rose by the steepest rate in several years in March and April.

But the good news is: Despite the lack of clarity around the situation in the Strait of Hormuz — and several skirmishes in the Strait over the Eid break — it appears the new normal is now that ships are sailing through at their own risk, mostly by going dark. That’s how another Adnoc LNG tanker — the Umm Al Ashtan — transited the Strait earlier in the month, before reappearing off of Oman carrying LNG bound, Bloomberg reports. Adnoc has also exported three other LNG shipments from the Gulf on tankers that went dark while crossing Hormuz, the latest of which has since docked in western India.

Still far from normal: The transit adds to a small batch of recent energy shipments through Hormuz — including at least two non-Iranian oil supertankers that exited the Gulf. However, LNG flows remain far below normal. Before the war, around three LNG tankers transited the strait each day, mostly carrying Qatari cargoes.

In other good news — the UAE released 2025 GDP data, and the numbers speak of a solid growth story for the non-oil sector — very welcome news as oil price volatility and supply chain disruptions make it so that oil-dependent economies are a lot more exposed.

ALSO- Abu Dhabi investors are staying active on the global front, with MGX pouring more funds into Claude maker Anthropic, and Mubadala capitalizing on an AI stock rally by selling shares in GlobalFoundries.

PSAs

It’s the start of a new month, and that means changes to fuel prices, and a whole host of new regulations and laws coming into effect.

#1- The UAE Fuel Price Committee raised prices once again for most fuels, though diesel saw a dip to partially offset April’s massive 72.4% raise, according to a post on X.

Here’s the breakdown per liter:

Super 98 is now AED 3.95, up from AED 3.66 in May (+7.9%);
Special 95 is AED 3.83, up from AED 3.55 (+7.9%);
E-Plus 91 is AED 3.76, up from AED 3.48 (+8.0);
Diesel is AED 4.33, down from AED 4.69 (-7.7).

IN CONTEXT- Fuel prices were initially hiked in March and then raised again between 30.9-72.4% in April after Brent crude traded above USD 100 / bbl for weeks. The supply chain squeeze from the regional war drove up diesel prices in particular, meaning the 7.7% dip is a slight offset rather than a welcome relief to February’s price of AED 2.72.

The drop in diesel prices will be a relief for industry as well as logistics and delivery firms. The uptick in diesel prices has been weighing on several industries including transport, logistics, construction, and delivery services, which have had to pass it on to consumers through surcharges.

#2- Prepare to pay extra for tolls + parking in Dubai: Dubai’s road toll operator Salik and parking operator Parkin will begin collecting 5% VAT on all fees and subscription charges starting today. Salik will be adding 30 fils to the standard AED 6 crossing and 20 fils to the AED 4 crossing, it said in a bourse disclosure (pdf), while Parkin’s fees will rise by 10-50 fils depending on the location and hour (i.e. whether it’s a peak or off-peak hour).

Why? The move follows a Federal Tax Authority ruling that Salik and Parkin’s services constitute taxable supplies under the existing UAE VAT framework.

#3- A slate of new federal decree laws rewiring civil transactions, company mechanics, and the general age of maturity is also coming into effect today. The highlights are:

The age of maturity has been dropped from 21 to 18, allowing young adults the flexibility to manage finances earlier, and individuals as young as 15 are also authorized to manage their own assets;
Pre-contract negotiations now must be explicitly disclosed;
New rules have been put in place for nonprofits requiring them to reinvest earnings to achieve their objectives.

Also on the logistics front: Sharjah Ports, Customs, and Freezones Authority and Sharjah’s Roads and Transport Authority has started to waive truck toll gate fees for cargo trucks entering from Oman and traveling along designated logistics corridor routes across the emirate. The exemption applies to trucks entering through the Khatmat Malaha and Al Madam border crossings, provided shipments are registered under the initiative’s approved routes.

WEATHER- Look for a high of 39°C in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi today, before the mercury cools to 29-30°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Watch this space

BANKING — UK mortgage lender MFS’s collapse could be messy for FAB: First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) may be exposed to judicial proceedings against London-based mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions (MFS), which has been linked to misappropriation of funds, the Financial Times reports.

The issue: At the heart of the problem is MFS’s owner Paresh Raja, who MFS has charged with misusing funds to fuel a “lavish lifestyle” in a USD 1.3 bn lawsuit. Khemanand Hurhangee, an accountant who the complainants say is linked to Raja, owns six property firms, all filed for administration recently. The lawsuit says the entities linked to Hurhangee and Raja are sham companies.

Where does FAB come in? One of FAB’s Swiss units provided financing to the firms for 60 properties in the UK capital, which were bought through mortgage vehicles controlled by Raja. On the bright side, about 26 properties have already been refinanced or have no currently outstanding mortgages.

IPO WATCH — Hong Kong-listed biotech firm InSilico Medicine Cayman TopCo is weighing a secondary listing on the ADX, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. The firm is in discussions for a potential direct listing, which could come sometime this year, after UAE-based investors took part in its Hong Kong listing in December.

Why it matters: A secondary listing from InSilico would make it the first non-Gulf player to list shares on a regional index. The region is looking to increase cross-listing with other indices, with the ADX becoming the first regional exchange to cross-list with a US-domiciled ETF last year. It’d also be a welcome boost to liquidity on the ADX given the muted IPO pipeline for UAE indices since the Iran war started.

InSilico? InSilico uses AI for drug discovery and development and has a presence in Hong Kong, China, and the US. Currently, both AI and biotech are key pillars of the UAE’s economic diversification strategy, with the country actively looking to draw sector players to the Emirates.

MEDIA — Shakeup at Sky News Arabia: Sky UK has relinquished its strategic and operational control of Sky News Arabia, leaving Abu Dhabi’s IMI as the sole operator of the JV, The Guardian reports. A multi-year brand licensing will allow the 24-hour Arabic language news program to keep its name.

Earning well is not the same as investing well — and for most mid-level executives and entrepreneurs, the gap between the two is wider than they’d like to admit. The financial landscape has shifted. Regional markets are opening up, AI is rewriting how portfolios get managed, and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are entering the conversation.

And the questions that used to feel straightforward — buy or rent, fund the startup or play it safe, finance the car now or wait it out — are harder to answer than ever.

In Issue 2 of EnterpriseAM Money Matters, we get into the decisions that don’t have easy answers, because at this stage, playing it safe is the riskiest move you can make.

Tap or click here to subscribe to the Egypt edition, delivered to your inbox Wednesday, June 3.

The big story abroad

The US-Iran diplomatic stalemate persists, despite both sides spending the weekend exchanging revisions to a draft pact that would keep a ceasefire in place. Regime-affiliated Iranian media has indicated that Washington and Tehran may wind up scrapping the potential resolution and that no definite result has been reached.

Meanwhile, on Wall Street: US investors seem unconvinced that an AI bubble is about to burst, wagering heavily on AI-related equities they believe still have untapped potential. The optimism is fueled by expected AI advances and big-ticket pledges on chips and data centers — investments expected to boost tech companies’ bottom lines.

And in business news: Berkshire Hathaway has made a USD 6.8 bn housing play, agreeing to acquire US homebuilder Taylor Morrison, marking the first multi-USD-bn acquisition under the helm of newly minted CEO Greg Abel. The move deepens the firm’s housing portfolio and puts it on its way to “unify [its] site-built homebuilding operations into a combined platform,” Abel said.

And in the tech world: Dell has premiered the XPS 13, its new low-cost offering whose prices start at USD 699. It is expected to butt heads with Apple’s MacBook Neo, another laptop marketed for its affordability.

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Dubai inflation climbs to its highest level in years

Dubai inflation accelerates in April: Dubai’s annual inflation jumped to 4.8% in April as fuel, freight, and imported food costs rippled through the economy, accelerating sharply from 3.8% in March, according to data by the Dubai Statistics Center. On a monthly basis, prices were up 1.3%, accelerating from the 0.9% uptick in March.

The biggest jump came from the transport segment, which carries an 11.7% weighting for Dubai’s overall CPI, pushing up overall inflation. Transport prices were up 11.1% y-o-y and 9.2% m-o-m as the war triggered higher fuel prices and freight costs, which started to filter through the economy.

It all boils down to the war, as expected: “The war-time impact of inflation has been felt across industries that depend upon oil and passage through the Strait of Hormuz,” Head of Research at Confluence Consultants Amandeep Ahuja tells EnterpriseAM UAE. Among consumers, rising grocery bills and higher fuel prices have become the clearest signs of inflation filtering into daily life, she added.

Firms are now passing higher input costs directly on to consumers through higher selling prices, broadening inflationary pressure across the economy, according to recent PMI surveys cited by Emirates NBD.

Food prices saw a 1.5% m-o-m increase on the back of a conflict-induced spike in shipping and transport costs, according to Emirates NBD’s latest report (pdf ). Other war-exposed sectors like restaurants and hotels (+1.0%), and ins. (+0.4%) also saw price rises, albeit more muted than for transport and food.

On the flip side, prices dropped by 2.4% m-o-m in the recreation, sport, and culture segment, while holding steady in the education and health baskets.

Housing inflation in Dubai remained sticky despite signs of moderation in monthly rent growth. The largest basket saw monthly price increases moderate to 0.3%, even as it posted 7.4% annual inflation rate due to a sharp uptick at the start of the year.

That’s likely a lagging indicator, though, Khaliji Economics Director and Gulf analyst at GlobalPartners Justin Alexander tells EnterpriseAM. “The impact of war is likely to stabilize or even reduce rents later this year,” Alexander forecasts.

What to expect looking ahead

Emirates NBD expects inflation in Dubai to peak at 5.4% in May before moderating through 2H to around 2.9% by December as fuel costs ease and supply chains normalize.

Price increases might be a bit sticky: “Should the Strait of Hormuz reopen tomorrow, prices may not adjust immediately, but business sentiment would improve as confidence in supply chains resumes,” Ahuja said. “The bigger concern and, arguably, the root of the inflation is the uncertainty,” she added.

The economy had its best run in three years in 2025

The economy grew at its fastest pace since 2022 last year, increasing 6.2%, with the non-oil sector once again doing most of the heavy lifting as construction, finance, real estate, and transport powered growth across the country, state news agency Wam reports. Real GDP reached AED 1.9 tn during the year, with non-oil GDP growing 6.8% to AED 1.5 tn.

By sector: Construction emerged as the fastest-growing sector of the economy last year, expanding 11.1%, followed by financial and ins. activities at 10.4%. Real estate grew 7.9%, while transport and storage climbed 7.8%.

Trade remained the single largest contributor to the non-oil economy, accounting for 16.9% of non-oil GDP, followed by financial and ins. activities at 13.2%, construction at 12.9%, and manufacturing at 12.8%.

That’s mostly thanks to the UAE’s growing CEPA program. The total value of goods and services traded hit AED 6 tn in 2025, with the Emirates’ ever-expanding CEPA network a major driver of growth. The UAE is aiming to reach AED 4 tn in total foreign trade by 2031 and is already well on its way, having clocked AED 3 tn in total foreign trade two years ago.

In context

The data for last year was great, but we likely won’t see those figures this year. Before the conflict, the UAE’s economy was comfortably projected to grow above the 5% mark, with the Central Bank of the UAE expecting it to expand by 5.3%. Since the war, however, the IMF revised its forecast down to 3.1%, while BMI sees GDP growing at 1.4% — others are even more pessimistic, with Goldman Sachs expecting a full-on contraction (of up to 5%).

Mubadala raises USD 3 bn from strategic block sales in GlobalFoundries — but it’s still committed to the firm

US stock rally is good news for Mubadala: Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala raised USD 1.9 bn from the sale of a block of shares in semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries, according to a form 44 filing. The investor sold 22 mn shares, after marketing the shares at USD 86.3-86.8 apiece — more than double the price of a separate public offering in March through which Mubadala raised another USD 1.2 bn.

Mubadala’s capitalizing on a market rally — not staging an exit. The investor retains a 73% stake in the company, down from 77% at the end of 1Q 2026, and co-CEO of private equity at Mubadala said it remains “highly committed to GlobalFoundries’ strategic direction, Camilla Languille, co-chief executive officer of private equity at Mubadala” in a statement to Bloomberg.

Why now? A rally in equities on the back of hopes for a possible US-Iran ceasefire has buoyed investor sentiment in recent weeks — especially in major AI stocks which are already riding a big wave as investments in the sector (and demand) increase. In the US, the S&P 500 was up by almost 20% from a March low.

Not the only ones: The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) is also riding that wave, with gas engine manufacturer Innio, in which Adia holds a significant minority stake alongside Advent Capital, poised to raise as much as USD 2 bn in a US IPO. Adia’s stake will see it secure more capital through the offering, which could see as many as 75 mn sold for between USD 24 and 27 apiece.

ICYMI- Mubadala has still been busy deploying funds elsewhere, including by acquiring a minority stake in US-based renewable player Power Factors and securing USD 1.5 bn for its biofuels refinery in Brazil. Meanwhile, Adia has recently launched a significant risk transfer fund with a London-based private credit player and made a minority investment in the USD 18.3 bn Hologic buyout.

Another MGX investment, T-sukuk round, and a new Yolo fund + Sharjah axes toll fees for Oman cargoes

MGX backs Anthropic’s USD 65 bn funding raise

Abu Dhabi AI investor MGX is among those backing Anthropic’s USD 65 bn Series H round, according to a statement. The capital raise comes just months after a USD 47 bn round in February that saw MGX first invest in the firm. Other international heavyweights like Blackstone, Greenoaks, and Temasek backed the round, as demand for Anthropic’s Claude Cowork continues to grow. Anthropic’s run-rate revenue surpassed USD 47 bn in May, up from the USD 14 bn reported in February.

IN CONTEXT- The Abu Dhabi investor is covering as many bases as possible, currently backing three major AI rivals — OpenAI, xAI, and Anthropic — and positioning itself as a neutral investor and a partner to all. MGX recently said it was looking to deploy as much as USD 100 bn annually in investments, and has since invested in UK-based Isomorphic Labs as well as OpenAI’s USD 10 bn funding round.

T-sukuk auction sees AED 4.7 bn in orders

The Central Bank of the UAE’s latest AED 1.1 bn treasury sukuk auction for May was 4.3x oversubscribed — the latest proof that investors are still long UAE, according to a statement.

The offering came in two tranches, the first priced at a 4.03% yield and set to mature in September 2027, and the second maturing in January 2031 and carrying a 4.30% yield. The yields represent a spread of 14 basis points above comparable US Treasuries, up from 10 bps in its April issuance — a signal that despite solid demand, the sovereign is still paying up to compensate for riskier paper.

ADGM greenlights Yolo’s USD 250 mn fund

Yolo Investments secures green light for USD 250 mn fund: Yolo Investments, part of Estonia-based Yolo Group, secured a license from ADGM’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority for its third private equity fund, Al Bayan reports.

The plan: The fund aims to raise USD 250 mn and will target MENA investment windows as part of the firm’s focus on crypto, fintech, and gaming.

REMEMBER- Yolo secured two gaming-related vendor licenses for two of its subsidiaries last year as a growing number of international vendors continue to secure approval for UAE operations. Megaprojects like the USD 5.1 bn Wynn Resorts casino are also putting the Emirates on the map as a gaming hub.

AI’s second wave brings more b’naires

The AI boom has led to a wave of sky-high valuations for companies that managed to be among the first out of the gate. Anthropic is nearing a USD 1 tn valuation on the back of its most recent funding round, overtaking OpenAI which was worth around USD 852 bn in March.

More recently, it’s the second wave of AI firms that’s increasingly garnering more investment attention and making b’naires of their founders, Bloomberg reports. Last year saw US AI startups yield 19 new b’naires, who together have a combined net worth of USD 59.3 bn.

The difference: While the so-called first wave of AI startups was mainly focused on products and sectors directly linked to the AI boom — think semiconductors, data centers, and LLMs — the next generation is targeting more applied uses for AI within existing industries. Newer firms are increasingly looking to automate processes in the law, med., coding, and audio-visual sectors.

Who’s on the list? Topping the list with a USD 60.2 bn valuation is Cerebras Systems, making b’naires of its founders Andrew Feldman (worth USD 2.8 bn) and Sean Lie (USD 1.5 bn). (Remember: Cerebras is a credible Nvidia alternative with wafer-scale chips, with a major UAE client base). Open-weight AI model developer Reflection’s USD 27 valuation has made its founders worth USD 4 bn each, while customer service software firm Sierra’s founders are worth USD 4.2 bn and USD 3.7 bn. OpenEvidence, an AI assistant for doctors, has made its founder Daniel Nadler — who’s also a published poet — worth USD 7.2 bn.

BUT- This might not remain the case for long, with longtime sector heavyweights like OpenAI and Anthropic also looking at expanding their offering to encompass tasks newer players are working on, and pulling in significant chunks of investor funds and attention through capital raises and upcoming public listings.

Some see a shakeout in the cards: Hedgeye’s Felix Wang sees the investment-intensive AI infrastructure segment as particularly likely to see a restructuring. Smaller players are likely to benefit from their more targeted scope and the room for innovation, however, protecting them from bubble territory, he says.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

South Korea’s Kospi hit a fresh high in early trading this morning, gaining over 3.2% as optimism over the future of AI offsets the uncertainty around the regional war and still-stalled ceasefire negotiations. Japan’s Nikkei is up a more modest 1.3%. US equities are set to start off the week higher, with futures in the green.

ADX	9,702	+0.5% (YTD: -2.9%)
DFM	5,757	+1.1% (YTD: -4.8%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,553	+0.8% (YTD: -6.9%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.5% o/n	4.0% 1 yr
TASI	11,078	+0.5% (YTD: +5.6%)
EGX30	52,659	-0.4% (YTD: +25.8%)
S&P 500	7,580	+0.2% (YTD: +10.7%)
FTSE 100	10,409	-0.2% (YTD: +4.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,051	-0.1% (YTD: +4.4%)
Brent crude	USD 92.90	+2.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.29	+0.2%
Gold	USD 4,572	-0.5%
BTC	USD 73,727	-0.3% (YTD: -15.8%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.70	+0.8% (YTD: -1.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	152.20	+0.2% (YTD: +0.2%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	15.32	-2.7% (YTD: +2.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.5% on Monday on turnover of AED 2.5 bn. The index is down 2.9% YTD.

In the green: Americana Restaurants International (+6.5%), United Arab Bank (+6.1%), and Gulf Medical Projects Company (+5.7%).

In the red: Al Buhaira National Ins. Company (-4.7%), Waha Capital Company (-4.3%), and Phoenix Group (-4.1%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 1.1% on turnover of AED 1.8 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.8%.

CALENDAR

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Desalination Forum, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

17 June (Wednesday): Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

14-17 September (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

29-30 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): AFCM Annual Conference, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

5-7 October (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

30 October (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

2-6 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

16-18 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Police Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

4-6 December (Friday-Sunday): Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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