Adnoc set to accelerate West-East pipeline construction as it hedges against supply chain bottlenecks

The UAE’s bypass infrastructure is turning into a core export strategy. Adnoc is accelerating plans to increase the amount of crude it can export from Fujairah outside Hormuz, the company said in a statement over the weekend, in a project that could nearly double the UAE’s bypass export capacity by next year. The project is currently under construction, according to the statement.

We already knew about the pipeline: Adnoc previously said it was developing a USD 3 bn, 1.5 mn bbl / d crude oil pipeline to link its Ruwais Jebel Dhanna terminal with Fujairah, which was set to be completed next year.

The existing Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, known as the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (Adcop), already forms the backbone of the UAE’s alternative export infrastructure. The line can currently transport up to 1.8 mn bbl / d from Abu Dhabi’s oil fields to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. The expanded system could double capacity to some 3.3 mn bbl / d.

Fast fact: This would still be around half of what Saudi Arabia can export outside of Hormuz via its own East-West pipeline network, which can move some 7 mn bbl / d to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with 5 mn bbl / d earmarked for export.

The expansion could reshape which grades the UAE can reroute: During the disruptions, Adnoc exported most of its flagship Murban crude through Adcop, but expanded capacity could eventually exceed Murban production. That provides the land-based capacity for Adnoc to reroute other grades such as Upper Zakum through Fujairah as well, extending optionality for some of the most commercially important export barrels, though other infrastructure upgrades would be needed.

It also comes as Adnoc plans to ramp up production capacity in the wake of its exit from Opec. Without Opec’s production quotas, the UAE might hit 6 mn bbl / d of capacity in the medium term if it accelerates investments in oil and gas, according to some analyst estimates. Adnoc has been planning to boost capacity to 5 mn bbl / d by next year for a few years now, up from a current capacity of around 4.6-4.9 mn bbl / d.

In another hedge

The UAE and India are also building redundancy through storage. Adnoc agreed to increase its crude storage presence in India to as much as 30 mn barrels — nearly triple the roughly 11 mn barrels-equivalent it already leases there through India’s strategic reserve system, according to a statement. The two countries are also exploring potential crude storage agreements in Fujairah, also as part of India’s strategic reserve system.

Not the first country to eye Emirati crude stockpiles: Japan secured a commitment from the UAE earlier this month to increase joint crude oil stockpiles, while South Korea enjoys a storage agreement with Adnoc that gives the company access to storage in Northeast Asia.

The logic is the same as the pipeline push — distribute risk before the next disruption hits. Strategic reserves are increasingly treated less as static emergency stockpiles and more as geographically flexible logistics tools, allowing buyers to position barrels close to alternative routes, refining centers, and safer export corridors outside immediate chokepoint exposure.

Doubling down on Fujairah: Even as attacks and drone strikes periodically disrupted operations — with revenues falling by more than USD 174 mn y-o-y in March, bunkering demand down, and few ship-to-ship transfers — Fujairah is increasingly being treated as critical infrastructure, with the UAE remaining confident in putting the port at the center of its long-term resiliency strategy and folding it into Asia’s energy security architecture.

The Gulf’s “portfolio of corridors” era is here

This is how Gulf energy trade is being reorganized around chokepoint resilience: We argued a month ago that the region is moving away from dependence on a single optimal route and toward a “portfolio of corridors” model built around redundancy, inland logistics, storage, pipelines, and alternative ports.

It also says something about how exporters view risk: Oil exporters used to optimize around the shortest and cheapest route to market, but the new model prioritizes survivability under stress, even if it costs more with less capacity.