PMI inches closer to contraction territory as cost pressures mount

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: DFSA clarifies Islamic finance rules + Standard Chartered eyes UAE expansion

Good morning, wonderful people, and happy hump day. It was a (thankfully) quieter day on the alerts front yesterday, though the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA) did warn on X later in the afternoon that it was responding to missile threats.

Precautions have been taken: Schools, universities, and many offices went back to being remote, only a week or so after returning to normal operations. The UAE’s airspace also came under new restrictions, with only specific routes approved for flights until 11 May, only a couple of days after Dubai Airports had said wartime restrictions were lifted.

Aside from the NCEMA post and slightly less traffic, it was still BAU, with Make It in the Emirates continuing for its second day in Abu Dhabi, with plenty more localization agreements for the pharma, defense, and energy sectors.

The Big Story Today, however, is the drop in the Purchasing Managers’ Index for April, with the non-oil sector seeing its weakest performance in more than five years on the back of mounting cost pressures and slowing demand.

PLUS- We’re seeing more cooperation to boost inland logistics as aviation and shipping continue to see disruptions, as well as more investments from Mubadala and more regulatory updates from DIFC.

WEATHER- We’re breaching the 40°C mark yet again, and it’s only the first week of May. Dubai is set to see a sweltering high of 42°C and a low of 30°C, while Abu Dhabi will see a high of 40°C and a low of 26°C.

Riyadh to Mumbai. Abu Dhabi to Singapore. Dubai to London. Cairo to Shenzhen.

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FINANCE — Standard Chartered is planning on bulking out its UAE offices as part of a wider push in the Gulf, the lender’s head of private and affluent banking Raymond Ang told Reuters. The war’s impact on its operations has been “negligible,” Ang said, pointing to a recent normalization of inflows following outflows earlier during the war.

The firm is looking to add more relationship managers for its HNWI clients in Dubai, adding to more than 100 bankers and managers already stationed there, as it doubles down on HNWI Indian and Pakistani nationals in the Emirates. It’s also considering an expansion in Abu Dhabi.

REGULATION — The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) is looking to draw clearer lines on how firms market Islamic finance in the Dubai International Financial Center. The authority launched a consultation (pdf) on rulebook updates, with the “Islamic endorsement” front and center, after more firms have been wanting to offer Islamic finance options. The paper is open for comments until 19 June.

What’s changing? The DFSA wants to codify when that label kicks in. Firms would need an endorsement if they market products as shariah-compliant, run Islamic windows, or manage Islamic funds — essentially, if they “hold [themselves] out” as operating in line with shariah. Execution-only distribution without branding or advice wouldn’t trigger the requirement.

Takaful rules are also being tightened, with all providers required to disclose key contract mechanics — including how contributions are calculated, how surpluses are shared, and when additional payments may arise — under broader conduct rules that standardize disclosures.

DESALINATION — NMDC puts its desalination wager to work: NMDC subsidiary NMDC Infra has landed an AED 1.0 bn EPC contract to build a 60 MIGD seawater desalination plant in Fujairah in partnership with Spain’s Lantania, according to a statement (pdf). The two sides inked the contract with the investment arm of Etihad Water and Electricity.

What we know: The reverse osmosis facility will include storage covering 18 hours of output and is set for delivery over roughly 30 months, with phased commissioning to full capacity. It will sit within the Port of Fujairah, leveraging existing infrastructure as the UAE scales up water security.

The Fujairah contract draws directly on NMDC’s tie-up with Lantania, following its acquisition of a 51% stake in Lantania Aguas, now Lantania NMDC Water — the same partner on the project. The firm ranks among the top global desalination EPC players, with a backlog of around AED 2 bn and experience with large-scale projects like Saudi Arabia’s Jubail and Ras Mohaisen plants, giving NMDC a ready-made platform to scale in the sector.

LOGISTICS — UAE players look to boost cargo flows: Some of the Emirates’ logistics heavyweights are teaming up to improve intermodal logistics flows in the emirates. AD Ports, CMA Terminals Khalifa Port, and shipping giant CMA CGM Group inked an MoU to streamline movement between rail depots, dry ports, and cargo depots.

Target areas: The cooperation between the three sides aims to boost movement through the northern Emirates, as well as into Oman and Saudi Arabia. The UAE and Oman are already teaming up on a USD 2.5 bn rail project, which is set to include a freight service. Earlier in the war, the two countries also teamed up in a temporary joint corridor to expedite procedures for sea and air cargo via Oman, which is located outside of Hormuz.

PHARMA — Dubai Investments’ pharma subsidiary Globalpharma is moving ahead with its manufacturing push in Angola, with production at the planned facility in Dubai Investments Park Angola slated to begin in 2027, state news agency Wam reports. The update confirms progress on earlier plans announced last year, when the company signed an MoU with Angola’s Health Ministry to develop a plant focused on producing essential meds locally, with government support for licensing and approvals.

The move points to the company looking to scale demand for Emirati-made pharma beyond the GCC, building on a portfolio of more than 100 meds exported to around 15 countries.

M&A Watch — FCC commissioner raises alarm bells over L’imad-backed Warner Bros. merger: US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) official Anna Gomez has identified Paramount’s L’imad-backed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery as a potential national security risk as it would constitute foreign investment in US broadcasting, Reuters reports.

ICYMI: Paramount submitted a request to the regulator last week to bypass statutory limits on foreign ownership of US broadcasting assets, as foreign entities would own slightly less than 50% of the merged entity. The merger is backed by some USD 24 bn in commitments from Abu Dhabi government-owned firm L’imad and other GCC sovereign wealth funds.

The big story abroad

The wavering ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict is in the headlines this morning. Despite Iran's strikes on the UAE, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has maintained that the truce still holds. President Donald Trump announced a “short” pause on US efforts to escort ships out of the Strait of Hormuz “to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.” Echoing sentiments of deescalation, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the offensive stage of Washington’s campaign is over.

Could we bid farewell to quarterly earnings? The Securities and Exchange Commission is considering dropping the mandatory requirement of quarterly reporting, opting to keep disclosures a semi-annual occasion. The move by the US regulator coincides with Trump’s call for deregulation for Wall Street.

Meanwhile, in the world of AI: Meta is developing a personalized AI assistant designed to streamline daily tasks for its global user base. Sources with knowledge of the matter compared the initiative to services offered by OpenClaw, which enables users to deploy autonomous agents capable of executing complex tasks independently.

But is AI a bubble waiting to pop? JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink say no. They have argued, in separate comments, that Wall Street’s massive investments in AI tech and infrastructure are justified. Fink argues that AI spending is the “opposite” of a bubble, saying that “we have supply shortages; demand is growing much faster than anyone has anticipated.”

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Non-oil sector was at its weakest in five years in April

The non-oil private sector had its weakest month in more than five years in April, amid increased cost pressures and ongoing supply chain disruptions due to the regional war, according to S&P Global’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report (pdf). The country’s seasonally adjusted PMI slipped to 52.1, down from 52.9 in March, marking the softest expansion since February 2021.

A slump in demand as tourism fell during the month, coupled with shipping route disruptions, led to a decline in output and export orders, according to the report.

The drop was largely expected, and the fact that it didn’t fall by a wider margin is a sign that some recovery measures have helped. “The smaller drop reflects the fact that the UAE’s use of central bank measures, including the extension of credit to indebted businesses and individuals, is helping sustain the momentum,” MENA economist Hamzeh Al Gaood tells EnterpriseAM.

REMEMBER- The 50.0 mark is what separates expansion from contraction, so anything below 50.0 signals contraction. The last time the UAE’s non-oil sector was in contraction territory was in 2020, at the peak of Covid-19.

Costs bite: Oil and transport costs rose sharply, leading some businesses to reduce staff and freeze (or cut) salaries, with salary inflation falling to a 33-month low and workforce numbers across the non-oil sector falling to their lowest levels so far this year.

“Firms are looking to limit the impact where possible, with slowdowns in purchasing and hiring growth and even some reports of wage cuts, but a broad increase in price pressures is nevertheless still likely to dampen customer spending across the economy more widely,” Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence David Owen said.

As expected, consumers are starting to feel it: Businesses are starting to pass some of the cost pressures on to consumers, with average selling prices rising at a historically sharp pace.

We’ve been expecting this: As we recently noted, surging fuel, shipping, and ins. expenses have been weighing on businesses. While many firms initially attempted to insulate customers by absorbing these overheads, they are now beginning to pass those costs on to the broader economy. The hardest-hit sectors, analysts tell us, are tourism and hospitality, construction, transport and logistics, and retail and food.

At least more people are hopeful now: Perhaps as the ceasefire settles (attacks on Monday notwithstanding…) and with consumer demand still proving resilient, firms were upbeat about the coming year, with expectations rising to a three-month high.

Looking ahead: “As inflation increases because of how long the strait has been closed for, we’re likely to see more of an impact on PMIs, especially from an output and inventory movement perspective,” Al Gaood says.

Could we see contraction ahead? “It would be reasonable to expect a contraction in the non-oil sector that is on par with the early months of Covid and possibly worse, because Covid did not impact the manufacturing sector or seabound trade in the same way,” director of Khalij Economics and GCC analyst at GlobalSource Partners tells EnterpriseAM. Still, the slowdown in April was “remarkably mild” all things considered, he adds.

Over in Dubai

It was a similar story in Dubai, with conditions softening to their weakest since September 2021, and the PMI falling to 51.6, down from 53.2 a month earlier. Despite output and business growth softening on supply chain disruptions, businesses were again optimistic about demand recovery in the year ahead.

Elsewhere in the region

Saudi Arabia’s PMI (pdf) rose to 51.5 in April, up from March’s contraction of 48.8, supported by new business growing as local clients returned to the market after a jittery March;
Qatar also had a better April, although its non-oil private sector remained in contraction territory at 46.4 — jumping from 38.7 in March, which was its lowest level in nearly six years;
Egypt sustained its fifth consecutive monthly drop to 46.6 in April, down from 48.0 in March.

Adnoc, ADQ, NMDC, Edge + more join localization push

Local + int’l team up: The second day of the Make it in the Emirates forum saw UAE players bring in international names to double down on their localization drive in sectors like pharma, chemicals, and EPC. Big funding commitments also came on day two, with Ta’ziz locking in USD 28.5 bn in agreements.

REMEMBER- The UAE is aiming to bring local procurement prospects to AED 180 bn (USD 49 bn) over the next 10 years, officials said earlier at the event. The target sets the backdrop for a wave of long-term supply agreements across chemicals, defense, and manufacturing.

Big ticket commitments for chemicals

Against that push, Ta’ziz — Adnoc and ADQ’s chemicals JV in Ruwais — locked in USD 28.5 bn in long-term sales, feedstock, and offtake agreements, with terms spanning five to 25 years, according to a press release.

The agreements were made with both local and global firms as the UAE pushes to localize chemicals production and strengthen supply chain resilience here at home, with Ta’ziz Industrial Chemicals Zone set to produce 4.7 mtpa once completed in 2028.

On the sales front:

Methanol will be sold to Adnoc and Switzerland-based natgas producer Proman, while caustic soda will go to Emirates Global Aluminium and other international buyers;
Ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomer orders have been placed with Mitsubishi Corporation, Mitsui & Co., and India’s Sanmar Group, alongside polyvinyl chloride volumes with Tricon and Vinmar.

As for offtake: Adnoc Gas will supply natural gas under a USD 5 bn+, 25-year agreement (pdf) for Ta’ziz’s methanol plant ahead of its planned 2029 start-up. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi salt producer Sama Salt will supply T’aziz with salt for its PVC complex under a 20-year agreement.

Lofty targets for EPC

Abu Dhabi-based engineering, procurement, and construction firm NMDC Energy plans to increase the share of local inputs in products to 60%, up from 25%, along with localizing more products like valves and artificial pumps, CEO Ahmed Al Dhaheri told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 4:22).

The company is banking on strong local demand to “replenish” its backlog — currently standing at AED 40 bn — this year, with Al Dhaheri citing Adnoc’s recent announcement of AED 200 bn worth of project awards over the next three years. Some 76% of the firm’s revenues come from the UAE market currently, though international expansion — including in markets like the GCC, Taiwan, and India — is still on the table, he added.

It also expects project delivery to remain on track despite regional disruptions, which hit its 1Q net income, leading to a 63% y-o-y decline.

On the pharma front

The push into pharma manufacturing is getting deeper: UAE-based pharma manufacturer LifePharma is moving up the value chain, launching an AED 100 mn gene therapy push via new biotech spin-off Equigene Therapeutics, according to a press release. The platform will target rare inherited blood disorders including hemophilia and sickle cell disease — areas where access to curative treatments remains limited in the region.

Timeline: The group is aiming for a three- to five-year path to market, leaning on the UAE-India healthcare corridor and a scalable manufacturing model.

ICYMI- LifePharma earlier this week signed an MoU with Abu Dhabi Ports Group to build an AED 700 mn manufacturing platform in Kezad, targeting vaccines, oncology, and advanced injectables as it ramps up domestic pharma production.

Syria reconstruction efforts pick up momentum with first Syrian-Emirati business forum

Emirati players are once again doubling down on Syria as the country looks to attract investments for its reconstruction, the costs of which could balloon to up to USD 216 bn. Last year saw AD Ports and DP World pledge mns of USD in investments in the country after sanctions were lifted, with a focus on rebuilding its logistics and supply chain networks — now, the focus is on real estate.

Eagle Hills is weighing the launch of two large-scale urban developments in Syria with a combined development value of over USD 50 bn, Asharq Business reports, citing a source familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, Investment Corporation of Dubai (Dubai’s sovereign wealth fund) Managing Director Mohammed Ibrahim Al Shaibani met with Syrian President Ahmed Al Sharaa to discuss how Emirati capital could plug into reconstruction across real estate, tourism, and financial services, according to Syrian Arab News Agency.

The plans are being discussed as part of a visit from a senior Emirati delegation to Damascus for a Syrian-Emirati business forum. Eagle Hills Founder and Chairman (as well as Emaar CEO) Mohamed Alabbar is part of the delegation, and is expected to walk counterparts through the concepts and the investment setup behind them.

Proposal #1: The first development will likely be a 33 mn sqm master-planned development in Damascus’ Dummar area, combining residential districts, hotels, and commercial space. Internal projections linked to the plan point to a sizable contribution to GDP and foreign currency inflows. The project could see up to 320 km of roads developed, along with 73k housing units and 3.2k hotel rooms.

The economic impact? That’s estimated to be over USD 63 bn, with USD 20 bn in FDI inflows expected.

The second proposal shifts to the coast, with a mixed-use development proposed in Latakia spanning roughly 15 mn sqm offering 29k residential units, 2.8k hotel rooms, and a road network ranging between 90-150 km in length. That project could draw USD 18 bn to the economy, along with USD 7.5 bn in FDI.

What’s next? Discussions are ongoing around regulatory frameworks for the projects, their financing, and execution.

Caveats they might meet along the way? Financial infrastructure has emerged as a key barrier to reconstruction efforts across several countries in the region, EnterpriseAM Mena+ reported recently. Although banks’ Swift codes are now functional again in Syria and transactions are technically operable, European banks, for example, remain “very restrictive and hesitant” because of compliance criteria for dealing with Syrian banks, clients, companies, and government institutions.

The UAE’s defense rethink is getting serious

Emirati players are shifting their focus (and funds) onto the defense sector, with officials eyeing a funding vehicle for the sector and a raft of agreements aimed at localizing defense systems and equipment.

Why now? Defense and local manufacturing are two themes du jour here in the Emirates at the moment. The war triggered a rethink of defense systems, as incoming Iranian Shahed drones costing as little as USD 20k-100k apiece to manufacture were requiring USD 3-12 mn interceptors to take them down. Disruption to logistics through the Strait of Hormuz has also reinforced the need to use local manufacturing to reduce reliance on imports.

The result? UAE officials are now considering establishing a dedicated defense-focused investment platform, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

The pitch: The idea centers on building a structure that can take stakes in international defense manufacturers, including in the US, Europe, Ukraine, and Turkey, while also ramping up local production capacity. If established, the vehicle would sit outside the existing sovereign wealth framework.

Step back: The idea is still in the early stages and unconfirmed, but it all points to a more coordinated and efficient approach to defense-linked investments. It also fits into a similar consolidation drive that saw the UAE establish Judan, L’imad Holding, and consolidate IHC’s subsidiaries.

On the ground, the UAE’s defense and security authority Tawazun Council has been expanding its role in enabling domestic defense manufacturing. In a recent agreement with South Korea’s LIG Nex1, Tawazun outlined plans to explore a UAE-based defense manufacturing hub under a locally incorporated structure, covering R&D, production, maintenance, and supply chain integration, state news agency Wam reports.

It’s also teaming up with US defense and aerospace firm Lockheed Martin to set up a cybersecurity center of excellence in the UAE, alongside Abu Dhabi-based project management and cybersecurity firm Data7, Wam reports. The platform will aim to localize advanced technologies and boost local talent, after government officials warned of rising cases of cyberattacks during the regional war.

Plus: State defense firm Edge is expanding its localization push via an MoU with France-based electronic parts manufacturer Icape to localize printed circuit boards, electronic components, and turnkey subsystem solutions to use within Edge’s local manufacturing operations, according to a press release. Its data protection arm is also planning to localize production of sovereign encryption systems, according to a separate press release.

BACKGROUND- The UAE’s recent push on defense saw it buy USD 147.6 mn worth of defense systems from the US, as part of a wider USD 8.6 bn military sales package to countries in the region. Meanwhile, state defense firm Edge is continuing to deepen industrial cooperation with partners in Spain and Latin America, while Abu Dhabi-based Remah signed an agreement with a US defense firm last month to explore introducing autonomous aviation capabilities in the Emirates. Just earlier this week, Tawazun tapped Brazilian aerospace manufacturer Embraer for aircraft.

Abu Dhabi’s cryptographic tech goes global

The UAE is upping the ante on local manufacturing and exports — and that includes exporting technology. Abu Dhabi tech firms are exporting their tech to Asia and Europe, with the likes of Presight and G42 exporting AI capabilities, and now Abu Dhabi's Advanced Technology Research Council’s research arm, Technology Innovation Institute (TII), selling cryptographic AI technologies to US firms.

Cryptographic… what now? Think of it as AI that works in the dark. Standard AI requires data to be “unscrambled” before processing, leaving it vulnerable. TII’s tech — specifically using Private Federated Learning and Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) — allows models to be trained and run while the data remains encrypted.

Confidential AI firm Opaque acquired the intellectual property for two cryptographic AI technologies developed by TII — one allowing Opaque to add confidential AI model training to its platform, and another that adds a layer of data protection, according to a press release. The agreement also included a licensing arrangement for TII’s cryptographic libraries, including post-quantum algorithms to protect data, Dr. Victor Mateu, chief researcher at TII’s Cryptography Research Center, tells EnterpriseAM.

Why is cryptographic tech important? “Most enterprises sit on a corpus of data too sensitive to use and too valuable to ignore,” said Opaque Co-founder Ion Stoica. “With this acquisition, Opaque is the only platform delivering hardware-attested cryptographic evidence across the full AI lifecycle — training, fine-tuning, inference, and agents — with protections engineered to withstand quantum-era threats. That combination doesn't exist anywhere else in the market today,” he added.

The sale also sees TII acquiring a stake in the firm, Mateu confirmed, adding that Opaque currently operates in the UAE and the US, with the technologies set to be integrated into its portfolio to be offered to its clientele globally.

What’s next for TII? The applied research arm is commercializing technology it develops across domains like quantum computing, propulsion science, and robotics, with the goal of broadening access, Mateu says. That could sometimes mean taking a certain technology to market itself through its venture builder arm, VentureOne, or adopting a licensing approach, he adds.

Mubadala makes container play, e& capital backs Magic Cube, Capital Group joins ADGM, progress on Dubai Loop

Mubadala plays the container game

Mubadala Investment Company is adding to its logistics wager, co-investing USD 300 mn alongside US investment firm Stonepeak to back Bermuda-based Textainer’s acquisition of shipping container firm Seaco, according to a statement. The transaction that brings together two major container lessors into one of the world’s largest platforms.

What’s being built: The combined business will control a fleet of more than 8 mn containers and a global depot network serving key trade routes, particularly across Asia. The tie-up builds on Stonepeak’s earlier acquisition of Textainer in 2024 and Seaco in 2025, consolidating scale in a sector built on long-term leases and high utilization.

Why it matters: Container leasing underpins global trade — with around 75% of goods moving by sea — offering steady, utilization-driven returns tied to shipping demand. The move adds to Mubadala’s growing exposure to transport and logistics infrastructure, including its stake in trailer leasing platform TEN .

e& capital backs MagicCube in latest digital infrastructure play

e&’s venture capital arm, e& capital, has backed US payments security firm MagicCube as part of a USD 10 mn round, as it leans further into fintech and digital infrastructure plays, according to a press release.

The investment adds to a roster of investments from e& capital across fintech, AI, and digital assets, with prior investments including U S ITS provider Derq, Cairo-based proptech platform Nawy, and blockchain infrastructure firm Fuze.

Why this one: MagicCube sits at the “intersection of digital payments, identity, and AI security” — an area e&’s Eddy Farhat says is a “fast-growing need.” Its software-first platform secures data across devices without hardware, positioning it as a sovereign-grade trust layer for cloud and edge environments. Backers include Visa, Sony Innovation Fund, Bold Capital Partners, NTT Data, and Epic Ventures.

Capital Group joins the ADGM crowd

US asset manager Capital Group is setting up its first Middle East office in ADGM, according to a statement. The office — expected to open later this year subject to approvals — will house investment, operational, and client-facing functions, with Benno Klingenberg-Timm (LinkedIn) relocating to head up the Abu Dhabi office. The asset manager has some USD 3.3 tn in assets under management.

Another vote of confidence: The move follows a string of global firms setting up shop in ADGM in the past couple of months, including Rokos Capital Management, Bain Capital, and Hillhouse, signaling sustained investor appetite for Abu Dhabi despite the regional backdrop. CEO Mike Gitlin said the expansion reflects “high conviction” in the market, as the firm looks to get closer to regional partners and pursue further investments in the region.

Not the only one: UK-based alternative investment firm Man Group is looking to set up in Abu Dhabi, taking steps to secure a category 3A license, ADGM said. The largest publicly-listed hedge fund manager has USD 228.7 bn in assets under management, and will target distribution, trading, and investment through its eventual presence in the emirate, CEO Robyn Grew said. Grew also noted the UAE as among the countries looking to reduce its reliance on other providers as a buffer against future similar scenarios, in an interview with Bloomberg. For now, optimism is persisting, with certain markets like Europe, are feeling the pressure more than others, but this may depend on how long the war drags on, she said.

Progress on Dubai Loop

Partner tapped for Dubai Loop: Plans are progressing for the Dubai Loop project, with Elon Musk’s The Boring Company tapping US-based engineering firm Parsons Corporation as program manager for the build, according to a press release.

ICYMI- The 17-km network will cover 11 stations and be serviced by Tesla vehicles. Previous reports had it slated to open as early as 2Q this year. Dubai’s transport infrastructure is on somewhat of a roll currently, with the emirate recently announcing plans for an AED 34 bn underground metro line running from Dubai’s historic center to Jumeirah Golf Estates. Dubai’s Blue Line extension is already in the works, and due to come online in 2029.

The USD 3.2 tn tension

Are Gulf SWFs the new underwriters of the intelligence economy? State Street CEO Ron O’Hanley, speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles this week, has described the GCC’s deployment of capital as “an enormous export of capital to lots of people in this room” reshaping how transactions play out globally.

The framing signals a shift in how Gulf capital is viewed on the global stage. Gulf sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have graduated from LPs writing checks to driving allocation and shaping terms and structures. GCC governments and SWFs have deployed some USD 3.2 tn in capital globally.

Why this new reality is particularly fragile now: “The Iran war, and what that is triggering now, I believe will be a big realignment of capital flows,” O’Hanley said. Regional escalations risk forcing Gulf firepower to turn inward to focus on domestic defense and reconstruction, thus costing US tech firms and AI hyperscalers their primary underwriter, according to the Council on Foreign Relations ’ Rebecca Patterson. Saudi Arabia's PIF already cut international allocations to 20% down from 30% in April, and there’s no replacement pool.

The counter-narrative? Mubadala is bullish on the US. With 44% of its portfolio already stateside, Deputy Group CEO Waleed Al Muhairi calls it “the best risk-reward” globally and sees a “V-shaped recovery” ahead, with further upside in AI infrastructure, energy, and healthcare.

Not everyone at Mubadala agrees. CIO Oscar Fahlgren told the same audience the world is “standing just in front of the worst energy crisis we have seen in living memory” and that markets haven’t begun to price the Strait of Hormuz closure’s effect on the real economy.

The global finance elite is hungry for a bumper year regardless. Apollo, Blackstone, and Morgan Stanley executives at Milken all flagged expanding M&A pipelines and a reopening IPO window for quality issuers, with Apollo President Jim Zelter pointing to “the ocean of private capital in aggregate.” Private credit, in particular, seems to be back in favor, with Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz framing them as a healthier “distributor of risk.”

The catch? All of this rests on a market PGIM’s John Vibert called “priced to perfection” — with much of the actual geopolitical risk “not yet priced in.”

Could the yield chase be going global? “Emerging markets, a forgotten asset class for the last six, seven years, became now a considerable asset class for global portfolios,” BTG Pactual Chairman Andre Esteves said, while MUFG’s US macro strategy head George Goncalves flagged that global rates are finally offering “competition for the US for the first time.”

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

South Korea’s Kospi soared over 5% to hit fresh highs earlier this morning as markets jumped on hopes of easing regional tensions. Apart from the Kospi, Asia-Pacific markets are closed for public holidays. Wall Street is also set to open higher, with futures in the green.

ADX	9,791	-0.3% (YTD: -2.0%)
DFM	5,729	-0.9% (YTD: -5.3%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,617	-0.9% (YTD: -5.6%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.3% o/n	4.0% 1 yr
TASI	11,007	-0.8% (YTD: +4.9%)
EGX30	52,558	+1.1% (YTD: +25.7%)
S&P 500	7,259	+0.8% (YTD: +6.0%)
FTSE 100	10,219	-1.4% (YTD: +2.9%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,870	+1.8% (YTD: +1.3%)
Brent crude	USD 109.87	-4.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.78	-0.4%
Gold	USD 4,560	-0.2%
BTC	USD 81,177	+1.4% (YTD: -7.0%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.63	-1.6% (YTD: -3.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.40	0.0% (YTD: -0.3%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.38	-5.0% (YTD: +16.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM fell 0.9% yesterday on turnover of AED 755.7 mn. The index is down 5.3% YTD.

In the green: Islamic Arab Ins. Company (+15.0%), National Industries Group Holding (+10.1%), and Ekttitab Holding Company (+4.0%).

In the red: Mashreqbank (-5.0%), Al Ramz Corporation Investment and Development (-5.0%), and BHM Capital Financial Services (-4.8%).

Over on the ADX, the index fell 0.3% on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.9%.

CALENDAR

MAY

4-7 May (Wednesday-Friday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, ICC Hall, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

15-17 May (Friday-Sunday): Art Dubai, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

22 May-7 June (Friday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Desalination Forum, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

17 June (Wednesday): Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

29-30 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): AFCM Annual Conference, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

5-7 October (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

2-6 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

16-18 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Police Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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