Runway getting longer for Dubai’s aviation targets?

1Q 2026 was the first quarter in a while where Dubai International Airport (DXB) did not report a rise in traffic. The airport saw traffic fall 20.6% y-o-y during the quarter, while March traffic plunged 65.7%, according to recent data. Even during the war, around 6 mn passengers moved through DXB, and 213k tons of cargo came through as of 30 April.

Only up from here? “Aviation has a long track record of rebounding quickly from shocks,”

Richard Maslen, head of analysis at CAPA - Centre for Aviation, tells EnterpriseAM. “Dubai International Airport remains one of the most structurally advantaged hubs in global aviation. The question is not whether it recovers — but how quickly confidence returns to match demand.”

IN CONTEXT- Airspace restrictions imposed at the start of the war were scrapped earlier this week, setting the stage for a gradual recovery. Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths said flights are currently being ramped up.

DXB now has 51 airlines — out of 90 — serving 192 destinations, Griffiths said, which falls short of the usual throughput. The gap is mostly due to less US and Western European airlines operating flights to and from DXB due to difficulty obtaining ins. cover, as government travel advisories continue, he added.

“The key issue for Western airlines is not demand — it’s risk-adjusted profitability,” Maslen tells us. “In the current environment, deploying aircraft into the Gulf comes with higher uncertainty, higher costs, and operational complexity.” Add to that the already highly competitive landscape of the Gulf, and “the commercial case becomes much harder.” “Capacity follows certainty — and right now, certainty lies elsewhere,” he adds.

Still, recovery is expected — and soon: Griffiths expects airlines to come back “very rapidly now,” Griffiths said. May figures are already strong, and the transfer market, which usually accounts for half of the usual data, is recovering strongly, he said, adding that he remains optimistic, particularly heading into 3Q and 4Q.

The problem? “If ins. constraints and travel advisories don’t ease,” Maslen says. That might “slow recovery rather than stop it — but the impact is meaningful. They affect airline decisions, passenger confidence, and cost structures all at once, creating a drag on both capacity and demand, particularly in higher-yield segments where corporate travel providers hold huge influence.”

Already, Griffiths says, its target to reach 100 mn passengers a year has been shifted from 2026 to 2027, according to Bloomberg. Despite that, Griffiths still expects to close the year in “positive territory.” Maslen’s take? “The recovery is intact — but the runway has just got longer. Confidence, not demand, is the real constraint right now.”