Hookah maker Advanced Inhalation Rituals is pushing ahead with SPAC listing in May

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Tourism in Ajman is the latest to see gov’t support + Al Habtoor kicks off its lawsuit against Lebanon

Good morning, lovely people, and happy FRIDAY. We close out the week with a busy issue, with plenty of activity from UAE companies, bank earnings, and real estate performance updates.

In today’s “business as usual” news, hookah maker Advanced Inhalation Rituals looks to be the first UAE company to brave markets with a planned Nasdaq IPO in May. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi healthcare firm M42 expanded its footprint in Brazil with the acquisition of a network of clinics and healthcare centers.

And in disruption-related news… the UAE’s three largest banks held firm in 1Q 2026, but impairment charges weighed on results. Plus: Office leasing in Dubai has taken a hit since the war began, but legacy transactions are still crossing the finish line, and some who had paused engagements are coming back to the negotiating table.

☀️WEATHER- You might want to head to the beach this weekend: Dubai will see a high of 35°C and a low of 26°C today, while Abu Dhabi will see a high of 33°C and a low of 25°C. Saturday will be more of the same, while Sunday will see it get two degrees warmer, with a high of 37°C in Dubai and 35°C in the capital.

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TOURISM — Tourism players in Ajman will be breathing a sigh of relief after the emirate said it’ll roll out a support package to give the sector a boost, state news agency Wam reports. The package includes a six-month deferral of tourism fees for tourist establishments, flexible payment options, and fine exemptions. It also provides complimentary entry for museum visitors and waives charges for exhibition participation through the end of the year.

The rationale: The statement says the move came to help boost “resilience in addressing various challenges.” It comes as the latest manifestation of government support for a sector that could lose up to USD 32 bn in revenues across the GCC because of the war.

UAE’s Economy and Tourism Ministry said a tourism-specific support package is in the works, after Dubai greenlit its own AED 1 bn support package that included deferral of hotel sales fees and tourism AED payments.

ICYMI- The UAE has been keen to try to mitigate the fallout to a sector that made up 13%, or AED 257.3 bn, of its GDP in 9M 2025. Still, the impact is already being felt, with hotel occupancy falling from 90% averages to 16% last month, and several hotels opting to shutter their doors — some temporarily and others permanently — to cut costs and focus on renovations.

DISPUTE WATCH — Al Habtoor’s Lebanon lawsuit is underway: UAE-based Al Habtoor Group formally launched judicial proceedings against Lebanon through the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) in Washington, according to a statement. The move comes after “a prolonged period of sustained and good-faith efforts by Al Habtoor Group to resolve the matter amicably,” with no results. The ICSID primarily handles disputes involving countries and foreign investors.

ICYMI- We’ve been tracking this dispute for some time. In January, Al Habtoor said it was pursuing court action against Lebanese authorities over USD 1.7 bn in losses tied to its investments. It said measures imposed by authorities and the country’s central bank — including a failure to impose a formal law on capital controls for banks — dealt “severe and sustained harm” to its assets and also blocked access to its deposited funds.

ADVISORS- White & Case LLP is representing Al Habtoor in the proceedings.

Investments are already being redirected: Last year, the group had already scrapped planned investments in Lebanon and shelved other projects. One major investment was contingent on the formation of a new “strong and independent” government, a condition the group said was unmet.

INFRASTRUCTURE — Dubai Silicon Oasis is getting a data center: A JV between Dubai Integrated Economic Zones and Dutch data center developer Volt’s UAE arm — aptly named Volt UAE — will build a 29 MW data center facility in Dubai Silicon Oasis, according to Dubai Media Office. Another 100 MW of capacity will come online later on.

Who is doing what? Volt UAE will build the facility and lead on development, financing, leasing, and operations. DIEZ is providing the land and infrastructure needs. Energy management and digital automation giant Schneider Electric is also working on the project, which will be used for advanced computing and AI deployments.

IN CONTEXT- Despite being the target of strikes in the regional war, data centers remain a major component of the UAE’s economic diversification drive — not to mention one that the Emirates has spent significant capital banking on. Several megaprojects are in the works, most notably the US-UAE 5 GW data center campus. Meanwhile, state AI firm G42 has recently signaled confidence in the sector, talking about plans to spin off its units and scale up its flagship data center platform.

DEBT WATCH — We now know who’s been buying up private GCC debt: GCC governments and state-linked entities have borrowed more than USD 10 bn from US-based investment management firm Pimco since the war began, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are in the know.

Who and how much? Pimco and other investors reportedly participated in a USD 2.5 bn placement of Abu Dhabi government bonds. It also bought debt sold by Qatar, Kuwait, and Qatar National Bank. Regional borrowers raised around USD 13.8 bn on private markets since the start of the war.

IN CONTEXT- Earlier this month, we reported on Abu Dhabi securing USD 4.5 bn in private debt placements as issuers looked to bypass public markets’ pricing volatility and widening spreads, analysts told us. The private debt market also saw significant activity from Emirati lenders, with the likes of First Abu Dhabi, Emirates NBD, and our friends at Mashreq tapping credit lines. Private placements, while faster in execution and offering more flexibility, carry a heftier price tag for issuers.

Discretion could be a pull, with Bloomberg Chief Emerging Markets Economist Ziad Daoud saying it’s “notable that the three Gulf nations with the strongest balance sheets are the ones tapping the market” and that public issuances normally come with higher disclosure requirements.

AVIATION — Emirates’ Tim Clark is bullish on the airline’s stability and growth despite recent headwinds: Eight weeks into the US-Iran conflict, Emirates President Tim Clark is signaling that the carrier will rebound not through tactical shifts but through the sheer weight of its brand. Despite a jolt that briefly closed Dubai’s hub and sent jet fuel prices up 103% in March, Clark’s thesis is that Emirates is a pillar of stability, even when the airspace above it is not.

Clark vs. the laggards: Clark took aim at European and US legacy carriers, saying he is not threatened by competition despite some of them seeing increased demand on routes in Asia as fliers looked to bypass the region. “They have no aircraft to be able to do, or even come anywhere near the production capability of 270 widebody aircraft in Emirates alone,” Clark said.

He backed up the airline’s current business model, saying: “I don’t think things will change how we operate the airline or this model.” This comes as the hub-and-spoke system that Gulf airlines operate is facing a stress test. Under this model, instead of flying passengers directly between cities, airlines funnel travelers from multiple “spoke” cities into a central hub before redistributing them onward. This strategy is now challenged by fliers looking to avoid the Middle East altogether, giving rise to nascent alternative routes. EnterpriseAM Mena+ has more about the challenges regional airlines might face if the ceasefire does not hold.

Data point

5.9% — that’s how much Dubai residential capital values fell m-o-m in March, marking the first monthly decline since the 2020 market trough, according to the ValuStrat Price Index (pdf). ValuStrat cited regional conflict, Ramadan and Eid seasonality, remote working, home schooling, and adverse weather as temporary drags on valuations.

To put things into context: Analysts told us earlier this month that March activity remained solid by historical standards, suggesting the market may be cooling rather than cracking. Several had already pencilled in a moderation phase for 2026, with slower price growth rather than an outright correction.

The underlying numbers tell a similar story: Even after the monthly drop, prices were still up 8.9% y-o-y. Villa values fell 5.8% m-o-m but were up 12.1% annually, while apartments dropped a steeper 6.3% on the month, with annual growth slowing to 3.9%. Citywide average values stood at AED 1.6k per sq ft, with the average home valued at AED 3.5 mn.

Transactions still skewed towards off-plan and ultra-prime: Oqood registrations (for off-plan properties) slipped 9.3% m-o-m but were up 1.5% y-o-y, accounting for 78% of all residential sales, while ready-home transactions fell 37.8% on the month and 34.2% annually. Ultra-prime demand also held up, with 21 ready-home transactions above AED 30 mn, including five above AED 50 mn.

PSA

Qatar Airways is back in UAE’s skies: Qatar Airways resumed daily services to Dubai and Sharjah yesterday — part of the carrier’s phased restoration of operations, according to a statement. The airline had suspended operations since its airspace closed at the start of the regional conflict.

Happening today

The Emirates Agriculture Conference and Exhibition is underway until Sunday at Adnec Center Al Ain in Abu Dhabi, bringing together agribusinesses, farmers, and policymakers to discuss food security, technology, and manufacturing.

The big story abroad

The international press everywhere is leading with news of the extended ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, set to last three weeks now instead of expiring on Sunday. The extension came after Trump hosted Israeli and Lebanese officials in the Oval Office for a round of talks, a day after Israeli strikes killed at least five people including a journalist.

Meanwhile, oil prices surged to USD 106.87 following reports of Iran boarding ships in the Strait of Hormuz and that air defenses in Iran were engaging what it said were “hostile targets.”

Over in business news, Meta and Microsoft are both planning staff reductions this year. Meta is set to lay off 10% of its workforce in May, while Microsoft is offering long-serving employees voluntary retirement for the first time, with an eye to offer redundancy to 7% of its US workforce.

AND- Intel’s shares surged 19% in afterhours trading after its 2Q revenue forecast beat analyst expectations, helping extend its 81% rebound so far this year as demand for its server processors — used for AI in data centers — booms.

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Shisha maker Advanced Inhalation Rituals sticks to IPO timeline, eyes May US debut

Air is the first UAE company to make headway on IPO plans since the war began: Shares of Dubai-based Advanced Inhalation Rituals (Air) could hit Nasdaq — the world’s second-largest bourse by market cap — as early as next month under the ticker AIIR, according to a statement. The flavored hookah tobacco-maker filed its second F-4 in March and is aiming to close the IPO in early May at a USD 1.75 bn valuation. The listing remains in line with the 1H 2026 timeline the company flagged late last year.

The SPAC of it all: Air plans to go public via a merger with Cantor Equity Partners III, a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). While the early 2020s blank check craze has eased, SPACs remain somewhat of a backdoor for mid-market foreign firms to access deep US liquidity when local appetite for cyclical sectors is dampened by regional volatility — as is the case today.

SOUND SMART- An F-4 is the SEC filing a foreign company submits when it’s IPO-ing in the US via a merger, most commonly by using SPAC. It’s essentially the transaction document that registers the new shares and lays out the full details of the combination (think audited financials, debt, projections, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical exposure).

What’s next? Shareholders will vote on the merger between Cantor Equity Partners III and Air on Tuesday, 12 May to form the new public entity Air Global, clearing the path for a Nasdaq listing.

Brazier is pitching the business as a war-proof play: “At times of stress, in the same way that maybe people drink a little more Scotch, they might enjoy a few more shishas as well,” CEO Stuart Brazier told AGBI. He added that he remains bullish on 2026, noting that the group’s expansion into the US, Europe, and Saudi Arabia is insulating it from regional volatility.

Not without friction: Footnotes in the filing reveal that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced Air to reroute shipments via overland corridors and Jeddah port, driving up logistics costs.

By the numbers: Air is active in over 100 countries and claims more than 60% of the US market. It operates eight production facilities across the UAE and the EU, and with third-party partners. Its flagship brand, Al Fakher, had 14 mn consumers worldwide as of 2024. Air’s top line grew 6% to USD 400 mn in 2025, with its bottom line up 38% to USD 47 mn, and its EBITDA up 7% to USD 139 mn.

Just two years ago, Air had been eyeing both Dubai and Abu Dhabi as potential listing venues, through which London-based private equity firm Kingsway Capital (Air’s majority owner) was set to offload its holding through a dual-track process. The PE firm took Air private in 2020, delisting it from the Amman Stock Exchange in a transaction that valued the company at USD 1.4 bn (debt included).

Background

The UAE had a busy pipeline of IPOs for the year, but has yet to see any as plans were pushed to 2H 2026 amid market volatility and as the US-Iran war continued to weigh on sentiment. In the pipeline:

Etihad Airways’ highly-anticipated USD 1 bn Abu Dhabi IPO was said to be delayed to early 2026 ;
Dubai Investments plans to list 25% of Dubai Investments Park ;
Binghatti was the latest to join the UAE real estate IPO frenzy as it tapped banks for a potential IPO, following Arabian Construction ;
Before declaring force majeure, Emirates Global Aluminum was said to be reviving plans for a potential IPO that would’ve been among the region’s largest;
Dubai Holding was planning to float two of its property portfolio units;
Abu Dhabi Investment Group was said to be eyeing listings for its financial unit and energy subsidiary;
Hospitality group Five Holdings also tapped advisors for a potential listing.

Office leasing demand slips

Dynamics might be shifting for Dubai’s office market this year after years of red-hot prices and tight supply, with rents holding steady for the first time in years in 1Q 2026 and demand shifting toward smaller and higher-quality offices, according to data from Savills and Knight Frank that we picked up earlier.

There were a lot of mentions of “pre-conflict” momentum in Knight Frank’s report, though the real estate agency stopped short of disclosing the impact of the war on the market in March or of making any definitive forecasts for the market for the rest of the year.

For now, businesses have shown a mixed response to the conflict in how they plan to operate their offices. Some have shown they only plan to double down on their expansions to or within Dubai, with new hires still happening, while others have evacuated staff and closed down their offices indefinitely.

We spoke with Adam Wynne, partner and head of commercial at Knight Frank, to dive deeper into the knock-on effects of the war on the office leasing market. The main takeaway? The market might see a cooldown, but this will likely take the form of rebalancing and optimization as opposed to downright downsizing or exiting.

EnterpriseAM: How has leasing velocity changed since the regional conflict started?

Adam Wynne: Legacy [transactions], which have been ongoing since the beginning of 2026, continue to complete. While new inquiries are down notably since the end of February, those parties who are engaging are serious and have either long-term objectives in the region or have upcoming lease events (i.e. lease expiration) and need to find solutions.

We did witness a holding period for 2-3 weeks in March where parties “paused” engagements, but we are now seeing those parties re-engage with the aim of signing leases pre-summer. Importantly, for many businesses, long-term objectives remain unchanged, and they remain committed to the region.

While leasing velocity in terms of volume has reduced, conversion rates on active inquiries remain relatively robust, reflecting a more focused and committed pool of occupiers.

E: Which submarkets are showing the earliest signs of pricing resistance or tenant pushback despite overall strong demand?

AW: Given the inherent lag in real estate markets, we have not seen a material shift in dynamics across the key sub-markets we track. However, we anticipate pressure emerging within the off-plan sales segment and across secondary-grade assets where appropriate money has not been spent on maintenance and upkeep.

As seen in the office sector following Covid, this period is likely to prompt occupiers to undertake a strategic review of their real estate portfolios, rebalancing where required. This may result in a reduction in overall footprint, but with a corresponding flight to quality, for example, relocating into better quality assets that offer stronger provisions such as public transport links and integrated retail / lifestyle offerings.

E: How much of the 2026–2030 supply pipeline is already pre-leased or secured by anchor occupiers?

AW: In prime areas, such as DIFC, where there has been a historic imbalance between supply and demand, we are continuing to see strong demand and pre-leases being signed.

Corporate occupiers are continuing to opt for single owned assets, built by developers who have an established and reliable track record. And for these assets which have a completion date within the next 12 months, we are seeing strong pre-leasing activity for all unit sizes. A strong example of this would be DIFC Square which handed over in February and was 100% pre-leased.

April sukuk auction comes in 4.7x oversubscribed

The Finance Ministry’s April seven-year AED 1.1 bn Islamic Treasury Sukuk auction was 4.7x oversubscribed, with total bids hitting AED 5.2 bn, according to a press release. The Nasdaq Dubai-listed paper included three tranches: two maturing in October 2027, and a tap on its 7-year sukuk issuance maturing in February 2033.

Appetite remains high: The 2033 tranche specifically saw even tighter demand, with a coverage ratio of 5x. While the February inaugural issuance priced below US treasuries, the 2033 paper priced at a tight spread of just 10 bps over comparable US yields (yielding 4.13%). The shorter October 2027 tranche priced at 3.92%.

Our take: Government debt is increasingly stretching to longer tenors, while maintaining razor-thin spreads over the USD curve, showing signs of maturity for the AED and resilient demand.

Big banks hold firm

The UAE’s three largest banks — Emirates NBD, First Abu Dhabi Bank, and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank — reported additional impairment charges as they began to navigate an environment of elevated tensions and market volatility near the end of 1Q 2026. Still, both banks struck positive tones for the year ahead, citing both their solid liquidity positions and the Central Bank of the UAE’s relief measures for the sector.

Emirates NBD had a solid 1Q

Emirates NBD, the UAE’s largest lender, saw its net income rise 3% y-o-y to AED 6.4 bn in 1Q 2026, according to its financials (pdf) and earnings release (pdf). Total operating income came in at a record AED 14.4 bn, up 21% y-o-y, powered by 7% loan growth and a 42% jump in non-funded income, helping offset lower interest rates.

The balance sheet kept doing the heavy lifting: Total assets surpassed AED 1.2 tn, up 18% y-o-y, while gross loans jumped 28% to AED 703 bn and deposits rose 19% to AED 830 bn. Asset quality improved too, with the NPL ratio falling to 2.3% from 3.1% a year earlier.

A more cautious note beneath the headline numbers: Impairment allowances totaled AED 0.8 bn, as management took what it called a prudent provisioning approach across DenizBank and Emirates NBD, including an additional precautionary charge for the UAE during the quarter.

The bank has also been implementing its own relief measures for its customers, including fee waivers and deferrals, which it extended for another month this week. The measures are aimed at “helping businesses navigate through the current environment,” the lender’s vice chairman and managing director Hesham Abdulla Al Qassim said.

REMEMBER- The lender is still very much in expansion mode: Emirates NBD is pushing ahead with its planned majority acquisition of India’s RBL Bank while also recently securing a USD 2.25 bn syndicated loan at record-tight spreads. It was also among Gulf lenders tapping USD private markets during the conflict period, raising some USD 325 mn.

FAB beat analyst expectations but reported a dip in net income

Meanwhile, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) saw net income slip 2% y-o-y to AED 5.0 bn in 1Q 2026, even as operating income rose 6% to AED 9.3 bn, according to its management discussion and analysis report (pdf). The drag came from higher provisioning rather than weaker core activity, with net interest income climbing 12% to AED 5.61 bn. Still, its net income beat analysts’ expectations of AED 4.38 bn, according to LSEG data picked up by Reuters.

Credit costs were at fault: Net impairment charges jumped 52% y-o-y to AED 1.1 bn and included AED 300 mn of management overlays tied to what FAB described as an “evolving external environment” after a more volatile end to the quarter. Excluding those overlays, the bank said net income would have risen 3%.

Total assets rose 14% y-o-y to AED 1.5 tn, exceeding USD 400 bn for the first time, while net loans and advances climbed 22% to AED 668 bn and customer deposits increased 4% to AED 871 bn. The lender also stayed active in debt markets, raising GBP 450 mn in March after two USD 750 mn issuances earlier in the quarter, followed by a further USD 100 mn private placement after the conflict began.

Looking ahead, the bank said its liquidity buffers stood “well above” regulatory requirements as of the end of March, keeping it in a strong position to “deliver sustainable returns at scale.”

ADCB kept the lenders’ streak alive

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) reported net income of AED 3.4 bn in 1Q 2026, up 37% y-o-y, according to its earnings presentation (pdf) and management discussion and analysis report (pdf). Operating income climbed 18% to AED 5.9 bn, supported by stronger fee and trading income.

Diverse revenue streams brought home results: Net interest income rose 10% y-o-y to AED 3.7 bn, while non-interest income jumped 36% to AED 2.2 bn, accounting for 37% of operating income versus 32% a year earlier. The bank also posted a record-low cost-to-income ratio of 25.6%, as revenue growth outpaced costs.

The balance sheet stayed solid: Total assets rose 19% y-o-y to AED 808.9 bn, while net loans climbed 18% to AED 425.7 bn and customer deposits increased 18% to AED 523.1 bn.

Like Emirates NBD, the lender is also staying in expansion mode: ADCB recently helped finance the USD 500 mn Jubail industrial wastewater project in Saudi Arabia and secured a permit to launch a subsidiary bank in Kazakhstan, extending its regional footprint. That follows last year’s AED 6.1 bn rights issue — the largest-ever transaction by an ADX-listed company — which further strengthened its capital base.

But ADCB wasn’t immune to the provisioning trend: Impairment charges totaled AED 638 mn, with management citing provision overlays to address “heightened geopolitical risks.” Even so, the bank reiterated its 2026 guidance, citing continued momentum, disciplined execution, and confidence in the UAE’s underlying economic fundamentals.

ICYMI- Impairment charges also weighed on United Arab Bank and Commercial Bank of Dubai in 1Q, though both still reported higher operating income and balance sheet expansion. Catch up here.

M42 expands in Brazil, AD Ports sells assets to Aldar, and another wager on autonomous aviation

M42 goes shopping in São Paulo

Abu Dhabi healthtech group M42 expands further into Latin America, with its renal care arm Diaverum acquiring four dialysis clinics in São Paulo state, according to statements (here and here). The acquisition lifts Diaverum’s footprint in Brazil to 18 clinics and three vascular access centers. The acquired network delivers more than 220k treatments annually.

Why now: M42 said the acquisition supports its strategy of building globally connected care platforms from Abu Dhabi, making good on its expansion plans announced some two years ago. The group has already been building out its international footprint, having expanded into Saudi Arabia and Bahrain last year while also taking an undisclosed stake in UK biotech firm Juvenescence.

… And why Brazil: Brazil’s chronic kidney disease burden is significant, with more than 10 mn people affected, making it one of the largest growth markets for specialist renal services.

AD Ports sells Kezad warehouses to Aldar for AED 650 mn

AD Ports offloads its warehouse portfolio, Aldar beefs it up: AD Ports sold three warehouses — spanning 161k sqm of leasable area — in Khalifa Economic Zone (Kezad) Logistics Park to Aldar Properties for AED 650 mn, adding another step to the asset-recycling program it launched last year, according to a statement. This sale alone covers 65% of AD Ports’ minimum AED 1 bn asset-monetization target for 2026.

Aldar has been absorbing some of AD Ports’ warehouse portfolio, with two warehouses in Kezad sold to Aldar for AED 570 mn in November 2025. AD Ports also sold Kezad Logistics Park Free Zone 3 to Mair Group for AED 295 mn in January.

Another wager on autonomous aviation

Abu Dhabi-based Remah International Group has signed an agreement with US aerospace and defense technology company Merlin to explore introducing autonomous aviation capabilities in the Emirates, according to a press release. The tie-up will assess aircraft platforms and use cases for Merlin’s AI-powered autonomy stack across civil and defense applications.

Why it matters now: Merlin said autonomy can improve operational resilience, reduce risk to human crews, and extend mission endurance — themes likely to resonate as the UAE reassesses defense priorities after repeated drone attacks exposed the cost challenge of using expensive interceptors against cheaper aerial threats.

It also fits a broader push into autonomous defense systems: Edge previously formed a USD 200 mn joint venture with US-based Anduril to develop autonomous technologies for civil and military use in the Emirates.

Ceasefire prospect weighs on greenback — until it doesn’t

It’s a battle between the greenback and emerging market currencies as the outlook for the war and the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz changes by the hour.

The USD was down by roughly 2.3% against its peers since its late-March peak, losing value against virtually all major currencies bar Japan’s JPY, the Financial Times reports. The EUR has also clawed back nearly all of its losses since the start of the US’s war with Iran, and riskier wagers in emerging markets were also seeing gains at the USD’s expense.

Yesterday, though, the USD seems to have regained some ground, with the USD index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, gaining yesterday. EM currencies and equities also saw a dip as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persisted and prospects of US-Iran negotiations remain unclear. MSCI's gauge for emerging market currencies shed 0.2%.

What’s happening? Since the conflict began, the greenback has been enjoying a rebound in its safe-haven status, clawing its way back into investors’ favor, while other defensive asset classes like bonds and gold took a hit. However, recent ceasefire negotiations and hopes of an end to the war are sending mixed signals, providing a bit of hope for risky assets but keeping volatility high amid ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

While “risk sentiment is improving,” as BNY’s Geoffrey Yu noted, the prospect of the Fed cutting interest rates is clouding the USD outlook. A simultaneous likely uptick in European rates on the back of higher energy costs means foreign capital will probably be looking elsewhere to deposit their funds to secure higher yields.

The outlook: The USD is likely to continue to fall until the war ends as increasingly unpredictable US policy pushes investors to roll back their exposure to US assets. Meanwhile, as things stand, Wall Street lenders predict the EUR will rise to EUR 1.2 next year, up from EUR 1.175 now, while the GBP is also set to inch up.

Conflict duration is the key decider: “The conflict will dictate the near-term direction,” Vanguard’s Roger Hallam said, indicating that the wider macro environment is pointing to a weaker USD.

Now analysts see a ceasefire as the likely outcome: “Our base case remains that it is in the interest of both parties to come to a deal [...] despite hiccups,” Jeffries’ chief Europe economist Mohit Kumar said.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the red this morning, with the only outlier being Japan’s Nikkei, which rose 0.7%. Over on Wall Street, futures are trading flat after a day in the red for Wall Street.

ADX	9,747	-0.4% (YTD: -2.5%)
DFM	5,814	-0.0% (YTD: -3.9%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,639	-0.4% (YTD: -5.1%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	4.0% 1 yr
TASI	11,109	-1.2% (YTD: +5.9%)
EGX30	52,375	+0.8% (YTD: +25.2%)
S&P 500	7,108	-0.4% (YTD: +3.8%)
FTSE 100	10,457	-0.2% (YTD: +5.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,895	-0.2% (YTD: +1.8%)
Brent crude	USD 106.87	+1.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.58	-1.3%
Gold	USD 4,714	-0.2%
BTC	USD 77,871	-0.5% (YTD: -12.3%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.59	0.0% (YTD: -2.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.94	-0.1% (YTD: +0.0%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	19.3	+2.1% (YTD: +29.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM remained flat yesterday on turnover of AED 823.7 mn. The index is down 3.9% YTD.

In the green: Gulf Navigation Holding (+14.8%), National International Holding Company (+9.2%), and National Cement Company (+3.6%).

In the red: Amlak Finance (-4.7%), National General Ins. Company (-4.7%), and Al Mazaya Holding Company (-4.3%).

Over on the ADX, the index fell 0.4% on turnover of AED 776.2 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.4%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS

UAE retailer Lulu Group’s general assembly approved distributing AED 361.5 mn in dividends for 2H 2025, according to a disclosure (pdf). The payout, equivalent to 3.5 fils per share, brings total dividends for the year to AED 723 mn.

CALENDAR

APRIL

22-26 April (Wednesday-Sunday): Emirates Agriculture Conference and Exhibition 2026, Adnec Center, Al Ain.

27 April (Monday): Gulf Creators, Atlantis The Palm, Dubai.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-7 May (Wednesday-Friday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

15-17 May (Friday-Sunday): Art Dubai, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, ICC Hall, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Desalination Forum, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent;
Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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