THIS MORNING: Dubai now has an air taxi station + Energy infrastructure repair bill balloons to USD 58 bn

A very good morning and happy FRIDAY to you all. We’re feeling cheery because today is very much a good news type of day.

Iran and the US seem likely to extend the ceasefire set to expire next Wednesday, with talks pointing to an extension that gives both sides time to iron out details for a comprehensive peace agreement.

While that could take months — maybe up to six, sources in the know say — it at least avoids a return to conflict and offers a glimmer of hope that an interim agreement over the Strait of Hormuz could come soon.

Global markets are cheering the news and feeling very optimistic — a bit too optimistic, policymakers say, as we write in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.

On the home front, debt markets also seem to be thawing, with analysts telling us spreads are tightening close to pre-war levels. Debt facilities for which bookbuilding had started before the war crossed the finish line, with Abu Dhabi developer Aldar raising a AED 5 bn revolving credit facility from a group of local, regional, and Asian banks.

Plus: Abu Dhabi continues its M&A spree despite the backdrop, with National Holding’s Emirates International Investment Company acquiring a stake in Joe & the Juice.

In slightly less positive news, BMI is the latest to slash the UAE’s growth forecast to 1.4% this year — provided the war lasts through May.

PSA

Schools might be back next week, but you won’t be seeing any buses on the road: The Education Ministry is delaying the operation of school buses for now despite the return to in-person learning, according to an X post. The ministry said the delay is meant to ensure that transport systems are ready and fully aligned with safety standards. The suspension will be reviewed on a weekly basis with the relevant authorities.

The Federal Tax Authority is slashing a roster of admin and tax compliance-related penalties by more than half in a move aimed at boosting voluntary tax compliance and improving the ease of doing business in the UAE, state news agency Wam reports. The changes, which took effect on 14 April, cover violations across VAT, excise tax, and broader tax procedures, with a clear tilt toward leniency for first-time and corrected errors.

Fines cut across the board:

• Failing to provide Arabic-language records upon request now carries a AED 5k fine, down from AED 20k;
• Failure to notify the authority of changes to tax records is penalized at AED 1k per violation (compared to AED 5k earlier), rising to AED 5k (down from AED 10k) for repeat offenses within 24 months;
• Legal representatives who fail to inform the authority of their appointment will now face an AED 1k penalty instead of AED 10k — paid out of their own funds.

Encouraging voluntary compliance: The FTA also revised penalties related to late payments, incorrect filings, and voluntary disclosures — including cases where taxpayers correct errors before or after being notified of an audit. The overhaul is designed to incentivize businesses to come forward and fix mistakes early without facing outsized financial consequences.

WEATHER- Look for highs of 30-31°C and a low of 22°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi today, along with breezy conditions, according to our favorite weather app.

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TRANSPORT — We now have an air taxi station: Dubai’s first air taxi station, located near Dubai International Airport, has been completed and is ready for operation, according to a statement from Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. The station has two air taxi landing pads, and can serve 170k passengers a year, according to a separate statement.

REMEMBER- Dubai is preparing for the launch of air taxis at the end of this year, with Joby Aviation completing its first crewed eVTOL aerial taxi flight in 2025, and selecting sites for more vertiports across Dubai, including near the American University in Dubai, Atlantis the Royal, and Dubai Mall — all set for launch in 2026. The vertiports will be developed by UK-based Skyports Infrastructure.

REAL ESTATE — Ora Developers is doubling down on Ghantoot, buying up an additional 4.8 mn sqm from Modon Holding and bringing its total land bank in the area to 9.6 mn sqm, state news agency Wam reports. The Egyptian developer said the additional land will drive total committed investments to AED 30 bn upon its development. The statement does not clarify whether the land will be used for the Bayn project.

Background: Ora is developing Bayn, a USD 10 bn project along the Ghantoot coast between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, which will be delivered in phases. The developer set up its headquarters in Abu Dhabi in April 2025.

HOME FINANCING — Buying certain properties off-plan in Dubai is going to look a lot more like buying ready property, with mortgages now entering the process much earlier than before. Dubai Holding and Emirates NBD are rolling out a model that lets eligible buyers secure financing at the booking stage instead of waiting until handover, according to a press release.

A closer look: The arrangement will apply to projects by Meraas, Nakheel, and Dubai Properties, embedding mortgage options directly into the sales journey.

This comes at a critical time: Not only has off-plan come to dominate the market, accounting for a big chunk of sales (around 30%) in the property market in 1Q 2026, but the move also comes against the backdrop of a cooling property market, potentially encouraging more buyers to pull the trigger on planned purchases.

FINANCE — We have more details on how Dubai is loosening the rulebook as conflict disruption tests its hedge fund pitch. The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) is easing requirements tied to where portfolio managers are licensed, allowing some to operate from outside the UAE on a temporary basis, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

We’ve already noted that the authority is pushing reporting deadlines back, relaxing authorization timelines, and easing remote work rules for staff in a bid to reduce friction while firms navigate this era of staff relocations and remote work setups.

It’s a deliberate break from the usual crisis instinct, what Bhaskar Dasgupta, a board member of regulated funds across Dubai and Abu Dhabi, described as a “structured pause.” The approach signals flexibility without compromising regulation, which could matter if firms start weighing Dubai against other hubs.

Dubai’s hedge fund momentum is being stress-tested. The city has spent years attracting global players like Exodus Capital Management and Balyasny Asset Management, but the regional conflict weighed on sentiment. Some traders left in the early days amid security concerns. Still, firms like Millennium Management and Hudson Bay Capital Management, as we’ve previously reported, have publicly reaffirmed their commitment to the UAE.

Data point

USD 58 bn — that’s the updated bill for repairing energy infrastructure across the Gulf from war-related damage, according to Rystad Energy. Oil and gas facilities alone account for USD 30-50 bn, while non-hydrocarbon infrastructure adds further USD 3-8 bn.

The estimate more than doubled from USD 25 bn just three weeks ago, reflecting the expanded scope of damage prior to the recent ceasefire. Rystad now sets the midpoint for total restoration costs at USD 46 bn.

A supply chain squeeze: The key constraint is not funding but access to equipment, contractors, and logistics, with recovery timelines already diverging by asset and country. Facilities with limited damage, existing contractor presence, and modular repair needs have returned within weeks, while assets requiring core process-unit rebuilds or long-lead equipment remain in assessment stages, with timelines stretching into years.

That is also starting to crowd out new project execution, as developers prioritize restoring existing production over advancing greenfield developments — pulling engineering, equipment, and logistics away from projects already underway. “Repair work does not create new capacity; it redirects existing capacity, and that redirection will be felt in project delays and into inflation far beyond the Middle East,” Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy Karan Satwani said.

The big story abroad

The good news taking up the attention of most business press this morning is the likelihood of an agreement between the US and Iran — and news of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. US President Donald Trump said things are “looking very good” for the countries to reach an agreement, and that talks are expected to resume soon. The last round of talks taking place last weekend had been inconclusive, with differences appearing over Iran’s nuclear program.

In business news, Netflix’s earnings and the resignation of co-founder and chairman Reed Hastings is getting plenty of play. The streaming provider’s forecast for earnings growth fell short of analyst expectations, sending its shares tumbling 9% in after hours trading.

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Market watch

Stocks of refined oil products at Fujairah port fell below 10 mn barrels — the lowest level in at least nine years, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, heavy fuel inventories at the port dropped to 3.91 mn barrels in the week to 13 April, Reuters reported separately.

Bunker sales fell off a cliff amid disrupted flows, reaching a record low of 158.9k cbm in March, down more than 70% m-o-m. The market is likely to remain constrained into April, with slow demand and limited cargo availability.

REMEMBER- This is a logistics problem masquerading as an energy crisis. The hit at Fujairah highlights a broader shift in global bunkering, breaking the link between fuel supply and access to fuel at the right place and time. As the closure of Hormuz forced vessels to reroute toward alternatives like Singapore, demand has concentrated into fewer bunkering hubs. Check out our deep dive into global bunkering here.

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