Abu Dhabi turns to private debt to raise capital + EGA declares force majeure on contracts

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: US, Iran leave talks without an agreement + EGA declares force majeure on some contracts

Good morning, lovely people. We’re very happy to kick off a new week after a calm weekend, devoid of attacks, safety alerts, and sounds of missile interceptions.

We went into the weekend discussing Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and somehow, just a couple of days later, it’s now the US who’s threatening to blockade the Strait. US President Donald Trump said the US would prevent “any and all ships” from entering or leaving the waterway, though it’s unclear how far it might go and whether it will be getting help from other countries.

This came as negotiations between the US and Iran collapsed over the weekend. After 21 hours in Islamabad, negotiators from the two countries walked away without an agreement, each blaming the other for holding the line on core demands.

US vice president J.D. Vance said Iran refused to accept what he described as Washington's “final and best offer,” centered on an explicit commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons, Reuters reports. Iranian officials, meanwhile, described US demands as “unreasonable,” TRT World reports, citing Iranian state media.

The problem: The two sides are negotiating entirely different endgames. Iran is pushing for a broad settlement, covering sanctions relief, regional scrutiny, and sovereignty issues like the Strait of Hormuz, while the US is pursuing a narrower arrangement, focusing on Iran’s nuclear program — a major point of contention in the latest round of talks — along with the Strait of Hormuz and regional de-escalation.

Yes, but: No one’s calling time on diplomacy just yet: Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said no one expected an agreement in a single session and that the road to diplomacy wasn’t shut off.

Some movement did take place through the Strait, though: Three supertankers carrying crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, the first to exit the Gulf since the ceasefire, while three empty tankers were sailing into the waterway on Sunday, Reuters reports, citing shipping data. However, hundreds are still stuck waiting for clearance, and some were abruptly making u-turns mid-journey, Bloomberg reports.

And the UAE continues to harden its rhetoric: Industry and Advanced Technology Minister Sultan Al Jaber said the Strait “has never been Iran’s to close or restrict,” warning that any attempt to do so would amount to a disruption of a global economic lifeline and a direct threat to energy, food, and health security, according to his post on X.

On another note: By the looks of traffic at Dubai International Airport last night, many of you are returning to the UAE after extended holidays and working abroad.

Many offices remain closed for now, with most companies saying they’re keeping an eye on how the situation develops, while schools remain online for the week. We’re waiting for updates from the Education Ministry on whether or not they’ll be extending distance learning further.

Business is still very much on track despite the interruptions, with Abu Dhabi’s IHC being the latest to announce an acquisition, writing a check for a stake in the portfolio of high-end hospitality brands owned by British restaurateur Richard Caring.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi seems to be pivoting to private markets — as are several banks — as public markets dry up amid ongoing regional tensions and market volatility.

PSA

Want to offer up your house as a nursery? Dubai’s education authority is allowing nurseries to resume operations in children’s houses under licensed staff’s supervision, with small groups of up to eight children, The National reports. This comes as schools and universities have shifted to distance learning due to the war, with remote classes in place until at least 17 April and no firm timeline for a full return.

Risk assessments will need to be conducted for each “hub” by the nurseries wishing to partake in this and sent to the authority for approval, the National quotes the Knowledge and Development Authority as saying.

WEATHER- Expect a breezy, slightly cloudy day, with a high of 29°C and a low of 22°C in Abu Dhabi, while Dubai will see a 30°C high and a 22°C low.

Happening today

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan landed in Beijing yesterday on an official visit aimed at deepening strategic and economic cooperation, with a high-level delegation in tow, Wam reports. The trip signals a push to expand investment across key sectors and could tee up new agreements as both sides look to strengthening partnerships amid shifting global trade dynamics.

Watch this space

AVIATION — Dubai narrows the runway: Dubai has limited foreign airlines to one daily flight per carrier through 31 May, Reuters reports, citing a private email sent to airlines by Dubai Airports.

The move is causing some panic, particularly among carriers in India, DXB’s largest source market with 11.9 mn passengers last year. The Federation of Indian Airlines told Reuters the curbs create an uneven playing field, as they do not apply to UAE carriers like Emirates and flydubai, and could lead to “substantial” revenue losses. IndiGo added the restrictions have “significantly constrained” operations, leaving parts of its fleet underutilized.

It’s already hitting expansion plans: Germany’s Condor has shelved its launch in neighbouring Abu Dhabi, with the emirate no longer appearing as a destination on its website, according to Aerospace Global News. As we previously reported, flights were due to start from 1 May as part of an Etihad tie-up, but have now been pushed to the winter as demand softens.

Why it matters on our side of things: Fewer inbound flights (and fewer options for travellers) could start to weigh on visitor flows, with knock-on effects for tourism-linked sectors already watching footfall closely. The government is already trying to prop up the hospitality and tourism sectors, offering tax rebates for upgrades and allowing hotels to defer sales fees and AED tourism payments.

DISRUPTION WATCH — EGA outage escalates: Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has invoked force majeure on some contracts after halting operations at its Al Taweelah smelter, knocked out by Iranian strikes earlier this month, Bloomberg reports, citing documents seen by the newswire.

SOUND SMART- Force majeure? That’s a legal clause that lets companies suspend obligations when extraordinary events, like war, make delivery impossible. EGA isn’t alone; QatarEnergy and Bahrain’s state oil firm have also invoked it following attacks on energy infrastructure.

A reassuring note from EGA: The company says it has “substantial metal stock on the water and on the ground in the UAE and some overseas locations,” the company said in an emailed statement to EnterpriseAM UAE. “Many customers remain unaffected,” he added, despite force majeure on some products.

REMEMBER- Recovery won’t be quick: EGA recently said it could take up to a year to restore full production at its facility following severe damage. The plant produced 1.6 mn tons last year, and sits within a region that accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminum output, leaving supply chains exposed to a prolonged squeeze, with prices already taking a hit.

More FMs on the way? The force majeure may mean the damage is worse than we initially thought, dry bulk shipping consultancy Bharat Maritime told EnterpriseAM. It is also likely that more contract deferrals and cancellations will be on the way, the firm said, adding that the 12-month recovery pipeline points to structural, rather than purely electrical problems, which are harder to fix. EGA’s stock could ease supply in the near term, but continued disruption will likely see the 5-10% surge in aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange move higher still, it said. Some analysts are penciling in a rise to 4k per ton.

LATER IN 2029 — Still a favored pick? The UAE will host the World Bank Group and IMF Annual Meetings in Abu Dhabi in 2029, according to an Abu Dhabi Media Office statement. The meetings bring together finance ministers and central bank governors from 190+ countries.

Why it matters: The decision follows a “global vote that reflects international confidence” in the UAE’s financial standing and institutional strength, a signal of longer-term confidence in the country. It comes as short-term sentiment wobbles: major organizers including the International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions and UK-based Informa have delayed or rescheduled regional events amid the ongoing war.

Data point

The GCC’s real GDP grew 5.2% y-o-y in 3Q 2025 to USD 474 bn , according to the latest data from the GCC Statistical Centre (pdf). Meanwhile, nominal GDP — which is not adjusted for inflation — grew 2.2%.

Growth was broad-based across the bloc: All GCC economies recorded positive real GDP growth during the quarter, with the UAE leading the pack with 6.8% growth. It was followed by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait at 4.8% each, Bahrain at 4.0%, Qatar at 2.9%, and Oman at 2.0%.

Diversification is advancing — but oil remains key: While hydrocarbons remain the cornerstone of the regional economy — accounting for 22.0% of nominal GDP — non-oil sectors are assuming an increasingly prominent role in the output structure. Manufacturing contributed 12.4%, followed by wholesale and retail trade at 9.7%, and construction at 8.4%. Other key contributors included public administration and defense (7.5%), financial and ins. activities (7.0%), and real estate (5.8%).

REMEMBER- The GCC is very likely to see growth slashed this year due to the repercussions of the war, with Oxford Economics, for example, forecasting 2.6% growth, down 1.8 percentage points from its earlier forecast, citing “lower oil production, exports, tourism, and domestic demand.” Meanwhile,

The big story abroad

For once, the international business press is focusing on something other than the war: Hungary’s elections. The European country just voted out Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who’s been in office for 16 years, and voted instead for centre-right rival Peter Magyar. Orban’s critics had accused him of being authoritarian; and his opposition to the EU’s efforts to help Ukraine fight Russia, as well as the economic decline that Hungary has gone through in recent years, contributed to why he fell out of favor.

Meanwhile, look out for earnings season to start this week, with Goldman Sachs set to report its earnings today. Expect an interesting week given the double whammy of earnings and the backdrop of the war.

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Abu Dhabi turns to private markets for funding

Abu Dhabi raised USD 2.5 bn in recent weeks from private debt placements, as the Iran war disrupted public bond issuance across the Gulf, according to Bloom berg. The emirate raised USD 500 mn on Thursday through the reopening of its 2034 USD bond, following a broader USD 2 bn dual-tranche tap earlier in the week across its 2034 and 2029 maturities.

ADVISORS- The issuances were arranged by Standard Chartered.

The shift comes as issuers seek to bypass public markets’ pricing volatility and widening spreads. With public markets all but shut as regional markets price at a war premium following the outbreak of the conflict with Iran, issues are now having to resort to private markets. “With financial market volatility, widening spreads, and no pricing in of rate cuts, private debt issuance allows selecting pricing and yields away from public market swings,” MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaood told EnterpriseAM.

This was expected: “With exports halted for those economies and weakened air traffic, we expected to see new issuances instead of depleting reserves — an approach followed in past years,” Al Gaood told us.

Where spreads have been at: Qatar’s 2034 bonds are currently trading at a yield near 4.4%, while comparable Abu Dhabi paper yields about 4.6% — both slightly below earlier peaks seen in March, but still higher than usual.

Zooming out

Qatar has been equally active, issuing USD 3 bn via a private placement arranged by JPMorgan Chase, while Qatar National Bank completed a separate USD 1.75 bn private bond sale in March.

It’s also not just sovereigns: Gulf issuers have raised about USD 7.76 bn in USD-denominated private placements since the conflict began on February 28 — that includes significant activity from lenders such as First Abu Dhabi Bank, our friends at Mashreq, and Emirates NBD, according to the data. Emirates NBD raised some USD 325 mn, while Mashreq and FAB raised smaller amounts, with the former reportedly raising USD 80 mn and the latter USD 100 mn.

What’s next: Once geopolitical conditions stabilize, a return to public markets is widely expected. “There’s a lot of cash on the sidelines, and people do not want to miss the rally. Once markets fully reopen, I think we’ll see primary issuance resume quite quickly,” Bloomberg quoted Zeina Rizk, co-head of fixed income at Amwal Capital Partners.

IHC sits down to lunch with the King of Mayfair

Diafa buys into UK’s trophy hospitality names: IHC’s luxury hospitality vehicle Al Diafa Investment Company acquired a majority stake in the portfolio of British restaurateur Richard Caring’s — also known as “the King of Mayfair” — which includes high-end F&B and leisure assets, in what it says was a “ten-figure transaction,” Bloomberg reports. This comes one year after IHC was reportedly first circling the asset.

IN CONTEXT- The move is the latest in a series of evidence showing that Gulf investors continue to deploy capital abroad despite geopolitical overhangs, with names like QIA, Mubadala, and ADIA remaining active across markets, signaling that outbound dealflow is holding even as risk premiums rise.

What’s in the box? The acquisition, said to be valued at north of GBP 1 bn, hands Diafa control over a tightly held cluster of London trophy assets, including the Ivy Brasseries collection, Caprice Holdings, and the Birley Clubs — which is co-owned by Qatari royal Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani.

A play to roll up top brands: The move plugs into Diafa’s existing global F&B portfolio that includes stakes in UK-based Azumi Group, as well as the US-based h.wood Group, which runs venues such as Delilah, The Nice Guy, and Bird Streets Club.

What’s next: Richard Caring, who took chips off the table to secure firepower for international rollout, will stay on as executive chairman, partnering with Diafa — led by former LVMH Asia chairman Ravi Thakran — to steer the group’s global push, the Financial Times reports. The pipeline already includes Annabel’s opening in New York, with Scott’s, Sexy Fish, and Noema lined up for further global expansion.

So far, 2026 has been marked by significant restructuring and M&A expansion for IHC. Its revenues came in at AED 111.4 bn 2025, and the firm quickly moved to centralize AED 870 bn of its assets under Judan Financial in February after it had merged three subsidiaries at the end of last year to form an AED 120 bn powerhouse. More recently, it snapped up a 41.5% controlling stake in Mumbai-listed mortgage lender Sammaan Capital and acquired a 50.1% stake in OpenAI investor Alpha Wave through Judan.

An AED 1 bn export financing framework, more food supply localization, and UAE energy back on the int’l radar

EBD, ADEX launch AED 1 bn export financing framework

The UAE is backing its export ambitions with real funds. Emirates Development Bank (EDB) and Abu Dhabi Exports Office (ADEX) have signed an agreement to set up a unified export financing framework worth up to AED 1 bn for UAE manufacturers, with an initial AED 367 mn already deployed, according to a press release.

The goal: The facility is aimed at giving local producers, including SMEs, access to working capital and short-term liquidity so they can actually compete abroad. It is designed to support export readiness across sectors the UAE is betting on, including advanced manufacturing, food security, healthcare and renewable energy.

No need to worry about tomato supply, it’s going local

UNS Vertical Farms has opened a 10k sqm facility in Al Ain set to produce 150k kg of tomatoes annually, according to a press release. The move adds local supply at a time when retailers and F&B players remain exposed to import disruptions.

The pitch is really about reliability: The farm promises 24-48 hour delivery from harvest, pesticide-free produce, and up to 90% lower water use, effectively trading import volatility for shorter lead times and lower spoilage across retail and HORECA supply chains.

As we previously reported, policymakers are also pushing for localization from the demand side: A new initiative targets 25% local sourcing across hospitality, a notable shift in a market that still imports 80-90% of its food.

UAE energy back on the radar

Global equity research firm Bernstein is putting a fresh buy call on the UAE’s energy story, initiating coverage of the MENA sector and flagging sovereign backing and predictable cashflows as key differentiators, Wam reports. It names Adnoc Gas and Fertiglobe as “best picks,” with outperform ratings and between 20-25% implied upside.

The case: Adnoc Gas offers contracted, quasi-regulated cashflows tied to domestic supply and LNG sales, while Fertiglobe benefits from low-cost feedstock and exposure to tight nitrogen markets. Both are seen by Bernstein as “quality at a discount,” underpinned by a system that turns state assets into investable platforms.

Truce or not, the damage is done

Even if a ceasefire holds, the economic fallout from the Iran war is already rippling far beyond the region, World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters, sketching out a global economy that slows, heats up, and grows more fragile the longer the conflict lingers.

Two paths, one problem

The World Bank’s outlook hinges on two primary scenarios: A ceasefire baseline where global growth slows by 0.3-0.4 points, and a prolonged war that triggers a full 1.0-point contraction, Banga said. Inflation is projected to jump 200–300 basis points in a ceasefire scenario, with an additional 0.9-point spike if fighting continues.

The toll on emerging markets: The World Bank slashed 2026 growth forecasts for emerging markets and developing economies to 3.65% in 2026, down from 4% in October, with a downside scenario pulling it as low as 2.6%. Meanwhile, inflation projections have jumped to 4.9%, up from a 3% estimate, potentially climbing to 6.7% if the conflict persists.

Where the shock is coming from

Energy markets are leading the disruption, with oil prices surging by roughly 50%, while supply chains for gas, fertilizers, and even niche inputs like helium are under strain. Aviation and tourism — early casualties in any regional conflict — are also absorbing fresh blows.

The fate of the Strait of Hormuz is also adding pressure. The longer the strait remains closed, the deeper and more lasting the damage will be to critical energy infrastructure.

And the two-week truce appears increasingly tenuous. Exchanges between Israel and Iran, coupled with flopped peace talks, proved how quickly the situation could deteriorate — keeping markets on edge.

Crisis tools are being deployed

To support vulnerable economies, the bank is activating crisis-response channels to fast-track liquidity, particularly for energy-importing nations. These mechanisms allow countries to bypass new board approvals and tap into previously authorized but undisbursed funds. Despite these measures, high debt and currently high-interest rates leave little room for error in these economies.

What not to do: Banga cautions against broad energy subsidies, which could further destabilize already strained fiscal positions.

If there is a longer-term takeaway, it’s structural. The crisis is highlighting the need for energy diversification and self-sufficiency. The World Bank nodded to this shift by re-entering nuclear financing alongside continued support for renewables and hydro. Countries that invested early are already seeing the benefits — Nigeria leveraged its large-scale refining capacity to increase output and supply aviation fuel regionally, insulating itself from the worst of the shock, Banga said.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets opened lower on US blockade news. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 1.2%, while Japan’s Nikkei declined 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite was down 0.3%. Wall Street futures are also in the red.

ADX	9,838	+0.0% (YTD: -1.5%)
DFM	5,715	+0.4% (YTD: -5.5%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,720	+0.1% (YTD: -3.5%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	4.1% 1 yr
TASI	11,326	-0.2% (YTD: +7.8%)
EGX30	49,079	+1.0% (YTD: +17.3%)
S&P 500	6,817	-0.1% (YTD: -0.4%)
FTSE 100	10,601	-0.0% (YTD: +6.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,926	+0.5% (YTD: +2.3%)
Brent crude	USD 102.78	+7.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.69	+1.5%
Gold	USD 4,701	-1.8%
BTC	USD 70,781	-2.2% (YTD: -20.2%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.66	+0.6% (YTD: -0.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.77	+0.3% (YTD: -0.7%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	19.23	-1.3% (YTD: +28.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.4% on Friday on turnover of AED 784.2 mn. The index is down 5.5% YTD.

In the green: Dubai National Ins. & Reins. (+15.0%), Air Arabia (+4.8%), and Parkin (+3.9%).

In the red: Dubai Islamic Bank (-4.9%), Emirates REIT (CEIC) (-3.7%), and Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (-1.8%).

Over on the ADX, the index remained flat on turnover of AED 797.9 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.1%.

CALENDAR

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Abu Dhabi Global Entrepreneurship Festival, Abu Dhabi Energy Center, Abu Dhabi

21 April (Tuesday): FAO Regional Conference for the Near East (NERC38), Al Ain.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, ICC Hall, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent;
Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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