Good morning, friends. New frontiers are opening in the war, with state-owned telecoms infrastructure being the latest target — and a potential tit-for-tat threatening a much bigger and more dangerous escalation as US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz expires later today. We talk to economists about the potential repercussions of that escalation in this morning’s Big Story Today, below.

The war has also hit the UAE’s IPO pipeline. IPO hopefuls including Emirates Global Aluminium and Etihad Airways are now facing unprecedented headwinds, from a damaged production facility for the former to disrupted operations at the latter. We have everything you need to know about this, and more, in the news well below.

WEATHER- We’re in for a breezy day, with highs hovering around 28-29°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and a low of 21°C.

Watch this space

REGULATION WATCH — More benefits for Emiratis in store: The UAE is extending its Nafis Emiratization program through 2040 to expand support for Emirati talent and competitiveness in the private sector, according to a post on X. Under the new program updates, the government removed the cap on the number of children eligible for allowances — initially capped at four — and launched a financial support program for Emirati wives working in the private sector and their children.

IN CONTEXT- Launched in 2021, the Nafis program is aimed at increasing the number of Emiratis employed in the private sector, with the goal of having 75k highly-trained Emiratis fill up 10% of positions in private firms across the country by 2026. Since its launch, the number of Emirati nationals working in the private sector has climbed by 325% as of last August.

MACRO — The GCC can withstand war-related shocks, IMF chief says: Strong institutions and economic diversification will allow Gulf economies to absorb shocks from the US-Iran war, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Asharq Business. That being said, the global lender will “somewhat” lower its growth forecast for GCC nations, she added. Global growth, too, will see a downward revision.

Watch this space: The regional war and its economic impact is expected to dominate discussions among policymakers during the IMF and World Bank’s annual spring meetings, which will kick off on Monday, 13 April.

Data point

26.6 mn — that’s the number of tourists that came to Abu Dhabi in 2025, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. It was a solid year for Abu Dhabi, with hotel revenues rising 19.5% to AED 9.1 bn, and international arrivals up 10%. Occupancy also climbed to 81%, while the average daily rate rose 19% and revenue per available room (RevPAR) jumped 23%.

Watch out for potentially less impressive figures this year. While the spring season is usually a big one for tourists, hotels and arrivals have been hit by the ongoing war and aviation disruptions, with many hotels slashing prices to attract customers. Even for those who still want to come despite the war, it’s become more difficult to find flights, as many international airlines have suspended service to the UAE (and other parts of the region).

The big story abroad

US-Iran talks haven’t made much headway yet. US President Donald Trump shut down Iran’s 45-day ceasefire proposal, which he criticised for being “not good enough.” Trump warned that every bridge in Iran could be destroyed if a resolution — that reopens the Strait of Hormuz — was not reached by later today. “The entire country can be taken out in one night,” Trump said during a news conference yesterday.

Tehran hit back with a ten-point proposal, which reportedly demands assurances that Iran would not be attacked again, an end to Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the removal of all sanctions, two senior Iranian officials told the New York Times.

Meanwhile, in the world of finance: Global investment bank Goldman Sachs said that the recent exodus of retail investors from private credit has created an opportune moment to invest in the asset class. The firm characterized the trend as a “meaningful shift” which will result in heavier reliance on institutional investors.

Also in the news orbit is Nasa’s latest mission, Artemis II, which has officially reached thefarthest point in space ever travelled by humans. Launched earlier this week, the mission took four astronauts around the far side of the moon and they’re now on their way back to Earth.

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