Topping AED 1 tn

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Adia eyes another Indian renewables player’s IPO + FinMin raises AED 550 mn in T-sukuk

Good morning, everyone. It is a relatively quiet start to the work week for us, though some big local names are still keeping the news flowing.

But first: Our big story today is the UAE’s non-oil economy breaking the AED 1 tn ceiling, and construction, tourism, and financial and ins. services remained the heavyweights.

Meanwhile, Aldar broke a regional record with a private placement issuance, and we have stories pointing to more UAE-India collaboration, with Adia eyeing backing an Indian renewable player’s IPO and G42 choosing India for its latest supercomputer build. Ships might be the next big thing to be tokenized, and the US and the UAE are partnering on more commerce collaboration.

WEATHER- It’s more of the same in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with temperatures peaking at 29°C. Dubai will see an overnight low of 19°C, and the capital will see a low of 18°C.

Watch this space

INVESTMENT — Adia wants a piece of yet another Indian firm: The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) aims to invest as a cornerstone backer in the IPO of India’s Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, alongside Singapore’s state-owned Temasek Holdings, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. The renewable energy developer plans to raise about INR 31 bn (USD 341 mn) in the offering. Talks are ongoing, and the final allocation details may still change.

Who else will take part? Adia will participate alongside India’s HDFC Asset Management and SBI Life Ins. Cornerstone investors will receive priority allocations in exchange for holding shares for a specified period.

The details: The company earmarked shares worth around INR 9.3 bn (USD 102 mn) for anchor investors ahead of the subscription period. Investment bankers are expected to price the anchor tranche at INR 1.05k per share, the top of the marketed range. Clean Max has already raised INR 15 bn in a pre-IPO placement last week.

Adia ❤️ India: Adia invested USD 5.5 mn in the USD 1.2 bn anchor round of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company ahead of its IPO, adding to an earlier undisclosed stake. It also backed the INR 29 bn (USD 327 mn) IPO of Emmvee Photovoltaic Power, the INR 66.3 bn (USD 754 mn) listing of Billionbrains Garage Ventures, and was reportedly among the buyers of a 3.45% stake in RBL Bank.

IN CONTEXT- India’s capital markets have been struggling with momentum after two strong years of record proceeds. Firms raised around INR 2 tn (USD 22.4 bn) through IPOs in 2025, while so far this year, only INR 14.5 bn (USD 160 mn) has been raised. The pipeline is packed, however, with over 200 firms either awaiting or having received regulatory approval for listing this year.

DEBT — The AED curve just got longer: The Finance Ministry launched its first-ever seven-year Islamic Treasury Sukuk tranche, raising AED 550 mn as part of a broader AED 1.1 bn February auction, state news agency Wam reports. The new 2033 paper — listed on Nasdaq Dubai — marks the longest tenor issued under the monthly T-sukuk program to date.

Investors can’t get enough: Total bids for the February sale reached AED 5.9 bn, implying a 5.3x oversubscription, with the latest seven-year tranche nearly six times covered. Pricing landed at 3.779% for the tranche maturing in 2033 and 3.53% for that maturing in 2030, both below comparable US Treasuries at issuance — a sign the sovereign isn’t paying up to stretch maturities.

Our take: This is curve-building in motion. Retail onboarding last year and longer tenors now point to a deliberate strategy to widen participation, lengthen the funding curve, and entrench the AED debt market.

M&A — Dubai Aerospace Enterprise’s aircraft lessor DAE Capital is close to acquiring leasing platform Macquarie AirFinance, Reuters reports, citing two industry sources. The company has reportedly been competing with other regional bidders, namely KSA’s AviLease and Qatar’s Lesha Bank.

Data point

44% — that was the jump in Abu Dhabi real estate transaction value in 2025, with total activity reaching a record AED 142 bn across 42.8k transactions, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. Volumes rose 52% y-o-y in 2025. Sales and purchases accounted for AED 99.4 bn across 25.6k transfers, while mortgages contributed AED 42.7 bn from 17.2k financings, suggesting liquidity is expanding alongside end-user demand.

Foreign capital remains part of the story: Real estate FDI reached AED 8.2 bn, up 13% y-o-y, spanning investors from more than 100 nationalities. Investment zones pulled in AED 54.1 bn, up 65% in value. Add 56 new development projects and a 57.7% rise in licensed professionals to 3.6k, and the market looks less like a short-cycle surge and more like institutional depth taking shape.

Only up from here? As we’ve previously reported, 2026 could tilt further in Abu Dhabi’s favor. With Dubai cooling into single-digit growth, the capital looks poised for the next leg of the cycle. Office rents are projected to climb 20% on 93% occupancy and tight supply, while apartments are expected to outperform villas on capital gains despite constrained deliveries.

The big story abroad

Several stories dominate headlines this morning, including the killing of drug cartel kingpin Nemesio Oseguera after a raid by Mexican authorities. Oseguera was a top member of the organization known as Jalisco New Generation Cartel, which is one of the groups behind the smuggling of bns of USD worth of drugs into the US. The operation came after mounting pressure from Washington to prevent the flow of drugs across the border.

On the global stage, the European Commission said it expects Washington to stick to the joint trade agreement inked last year. The Commission demanded “full clarity” on Washington’s next steps and insisted the US honor the agreement, indicating that it will accept no increase in US tariffs. This comes after US President Donald Trump announced he is raising global tariffs to 15%.

Speaking of which, Trump’s newest tariff hike was found to benefit China and Brazil most while heralding higher costs for US allies, namely the UK, the EU, and Japan. US allies are thought to suffer most as their exports have a higher proportion of steel, aluminium, and autos, which are covered by some tariffs that remain in place.

MEANWHILE, IN MARKETS: Crude prices retreated in early trading today after Trump’s pledge to hike tariffs fueled anxieties over a potential slowdown in global economic growth and energy demand.

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Non-oil GDP breaches AED 1 tn mark in 9M 2025

The UAE’s non-oil economy surpassed the AED 1 tn mark in the first nine months of 2025, propelling a 5.1% y-o-y expansion in total GDP, state news agency Wam reports, citing Economy and Tourism Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri. The latest data from the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Center (FCSC) shows the non-oil sector grew 6.1% during the period, accounting for the vast majority of the country’s AED 1.4 tn economy.

The breakdown: While construction went up 8.7% and real estate grew 7.9%, financial and ins. activities led the charge with a 9% jump. Manufacturing grew at a 6.9% clip while remaining the second biggest contributor with nearly 13.9% of non-oil GDP — trailing only wholesale and retail trade, which represented the largest component at 16.1%.

Finance and ins., manufacturing, and tourism are the key drivers of the non-oil growth, economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells EnterpriseAM. However, Al Gaaod strikes a note of caution on the property front, suggesting the massive surge in real estate prices could be “a price bubble” and not the core story. He added that while aviation remains strong, “air travel on transit flights, not tourism specific, is slightly slowing down in growth.”

Why it matters: The UAE is successfully diversifying its growth engines away from the volatility of crude prices. Now the government is leaning harder into “knowledge-based” sectors like AI and tech integration to maintain this 6%+ non-oil clip, as FCSC Managing Director Hanan Ahli told Wam.

What’s next: For 2026, the non-oil sector remains a key driver of economic growth, though with the risk of heightened geopolitical tensions, which could impact growth compared to 2025, Al Gaaod said.

Aldar locks in USD 1 bn from Apollo, tightens grip on income arm

Aldar Properties raised USD 1 bn via a 10.25-year subordinated hybrid issuance to Apollo Global Management in a private offering, it said in a bourse filing (pdf). The move marks the region’s largest corporate hybrid private placement and brings Apollo’s total exposure to Aldar since 2022 to USD 2.9 bn.

A capital reshuffle is also at play: Aldar, rated Baa2 by Moody’s, is using the proceeds to buy back USD 500 mn in older perpetual notes held by Apollo in Aldar’s investment arm, Aldar Investment Properties (AIP), from 2022. The funds will also funnel fresh equity into AIP, which carries a Baa1 rating, raising Aldar’s ownership in the subsidiary to 90% — up from 88.1% as of early 2025 — and leaving Apollo with a 10% residual stake.

Capturing the upside: AIP holds Aldar’s develop-to-hold portfolio, which includes assets like Yas Mall and the ADGM towers that generate steady rent. By increasing its stake, Aldar ensures more of that liquidity stays at the parent level, giving it the financial firepower to bankroll its project pipeline, which includes its share of the AED 38 bn Dubai Holding expansion announced earlier this month and its recent AED 23 bn Abu Dhabi land grab.

ICYMI- Aldar closed another USD 1 bn hybrid issuance last month, pricing 30.25-year subordinated notes at a 5.875% coupon after books peaked at USD 4.2 bn. The offering — rated Baa3 by Moody’s and treated as 50% equity — marked one of the tightest corporate hybrid spreads in the region and follows a broader USD 5.1 bn funding haul in 2025.

ADVISORS- Citi quarterbacked the transaction as global coordinator, structuring agent, and rating advisor.

G42 doubles down on India with massive supercomputer

Abu Dhabi’s AI firm G42 is establishing a national-scale supercomputer in India in partnership with US AI chipmaker Cerebras, according to a press release. The two are teaming up with India’s Center for Development of Advanced Computing and the Mohamed Bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence on the project.

The details: The project will include 8 exaflops of compute capacity, meaning it can operate at the current highest level of supercomputing power. Hardware will be hosted locally and operate under India’s governance framework. The project aims to strengthen India’s local data sovereignty and widen access to AI tools for local startups, small and medium enterprises, and government ministries.

IN CONTEXT- The UAE and India inked a raft of agreements at the start of this year, including a commitment to collaborate on a supercomputing cluster in India and to explore Emirati investment in India’s data-center capacity as well as the feasibility of digital embassies. Earlier in December, G42 launched Nanda, an 87B Hindi-English large language model, signaling a broader effort to localize AI development and reduce reliance on foreign digital infrastructure.

ICYMI- This isn’t the first supercomputer G42 is building for another country. In May, the state AI firm inked an agreement with Italian AI startup iGenius to set up “the largest AI compute deployment in Europe,” and later in July, G42-owned Presight launched Kazakhstan’s first national supercomputer. More recently, G42 said it plans to establish a sovereign AI cloud in France, following on from a commitment to build an AI data center in Grenoble.

The move points to a growing push from Abu Dhabi to export its AI expertise, as well as draw in foreign investment to local AI megaprojects like the 5 GW UAE-US AI Campus in the capital. Data center capacity in the UAE is set to jump 165% by 2028, with projects like Du’s AED 2 bn hyperscale data center and Khazna Data Centers’ two new 30 MW builds set to further boost capacity alongside G42’s Stargate campus, which is part of the wider 5 GW campus.

Invictus posts AED 227.6 mn bottom line for 2025

Takeovers helped boost Ghitha’s ADX-listed agrifood arm Invictus Investment’s net income 37% y-o-y to AED 227.6 mn in 2025, according to its earnings release (pdf). Revenue jumped 49% y-o-y over the year to AED 13.3 bn. Meanwhile, commodity transaction volumes jumped 73% to 14.2 mn tons, showing that growth came from delivery and production as much as pricing.

REMEMBER- 2025 was acquisition-heavy: As we’ve previously reported, Invictus expanded across Africa with the purchase of Mozambique’s Merec Industries, a 65.25% stake in Angola’s Angata Limitada, and the consolidation of Morocco’s Graderco. The firm entered 10 new markets during the year, expanding its footprint to a total of 65 countries, as it pivots from trader to a vertically integrated agrifood platform.

The strategy has drawn heavyweight support: IHC increased its stake to 40% in an AED 419.8 mn block trade, while Invictus secured financing from Mauritius Commercial Bank to fund acquisitions and expansion across African markets. The company is targeting majority stakes in USD 200-300 mn agrifood assets to deepen its processing, logistics, and distribution capabilities — all in service of its ambition to reach AED 25 bn in revenue by 2028.

Dividends: The board recommended a AED 40 mn dividend for 2025.

US, UAE ink commerce collaboration, Shipfinex eyes ship tokenization, and APT Global to build RAK facility

Abu Dhabi’s commerce chamber eyes cooperation with the US

The Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry is looking to expand bilateral investment flows between the emirate and the US, as well as boost business ties, under a newly signed cooperation agreement with the US Chamber of Commerce.

What’s in it? The agreement covers trade and investment cooperation, alongside economic events and trade delegation exchanges. The two sides will also create an institutional platform to boost bilateral private sector activity and support companies expanding into each other’s markets.

IN CONTEXT- US President Donald Trump inked USD 200 bn worth of investment agreements between the US and the UAE during his visit to the Emirates last May . The agreements covered energy, critical minerals, and AI.

Shipfinex secures in-principle clearance for ship tokenization

Dubai-based Shipfinex secured in-principle approval for a broker-dealer license from the Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority, clearing the first regulatory hurdle toward operating as a virtual asset service provider (Vasp) in the emirate, according to a press release.

A closer look: Shipfinex plans to tokenize vessels using distributed ledger technology, issuing what it calls maritime asset tokens that represent fractional interests in ships — an asset class that has typically been the preserve of institutional capital and private maritime funds.

What’s next: Shipfinex is now working to secure a full Vasp license, which would allow it to formally conduct broker-dealer activities in virtual assets from Dubai.

RAK Ports lock in a 700k sq ft fabrication build

RAK is doubling down on heavy-lift exports: UAE-based APT Global is investing AED 50 mn to build a 700k sq ft facility within RAK Maritime City Freezone, bringing its total footprint in the zone to 2 mn sq ft, according to a statement. The factory looks to position Ras Al Khaimah as a specialized hub for exporting oversized infrastructure.

When wars become a trade

Prediction markets are facing a new kind of scrutiny — and this time it’s not about sports or elections. It’s about war and diplomacy. Platforms like Polymarket have turned nearly every headline into a tradable event, with daily trading volumes topping USD 100 mn. The business is booming: the total positions taken on these platforms surpassed USD 8.3 bn in December, The Guardian reports. But as bns flow into transactions tied to geopolitical flashpoints, national security experts and lawmakers are raising concerns about what happens when global crises become financial instruments.

At the heart of the debate is the incentive structure itself. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has openly praised the model, saying “it creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market.” Critics argue that this very feature rewards those with material, non-public information. Blockchain analyst Andrew 10 Gwei described insider trading as “a core feature of the system,” claiming it is what makes prediction markets so fast and often so accurate. This advantage concentrated wealth by granting fewer than 0.04% of accounts more than 70% of the total realized gains, accumulating USD 3.7 bn.

Broadcasting secrets: Highly accurate positions have appeared shortly before major global events, such as when one user placed tens of thousands of USD on contracts just 24 hours before 200 Israeli fighter jets bombed Iran, earning USD 128k in the process. Former White House ethics lawyer Richard Painter warned that such dynamics could have serious consequences on US national security. “If you know we’re going to bomb Iran in the next week and you start placing [wagers], then the prediction market tells the Iranians they’re about to get bombed,” he said.

A weapon for foreign influence: The Atlantic Council has described prediction markets as “dual-use infrastructure.” Unlike traditional markets, these platforms often operate with thinner liquidity, making them more vulnerable to coordinated actors’ trading activity. In theory, state or non-state actors could take strategic positions to move odds, shape narratives, or amplify misinformation. During volatile geopolitical moments, even small shifts in pricing could feed back into online discourse, reinforcing speculation or panic.

Governing for gains: The scale of money involved raises the specter of officials influencing real-world decisions to protect personal trading positions. A bill has already been introduced in the US Congress that would bar political insiders from participating in these markets.

However, supporters argue that these markets improve price discovery and democratize forecasting. Critics counter that transforming war and diplomacy into tradable contracts risks creating incentives that thrive on instability itself.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It is shaping up to be a volatile week of trading as markets react to US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement and brace for Nvidia’s earnings out later this week. Wall Street futures are in the red this morning. Looking at Asia-Pacific markets, the Kospi and Hang Seng are starting the week in the green, while Japan’s Nikkei is closed for the Emperor’s Birthday.

ADX	10,581	-0.3% (YTD: +5.9%)
DFM	6,591	-0.3% (YTD: +9.0%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	5,487	-0.4% (YTD: +12.2%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	3.8% 1 yr
TASI	10,947	-1.9% (YTD: +4.4%)
EGX30	49,561	-2.2% (YTD: +18.5%)
S&P 500	6,910	+0.7% (YTD: +0.9%)
FTSE 100	10,687	+0.6% (YTD: +7.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,131	+1.2% (YTD: +5.9%)
Brent crude	USD 71.76	+0.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.05	+1.7%
Gold	USD 5,080.90	+1.7%
BTC	USD 67,575	-0.6% (YTD: -22.9%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	USD 3.72	+0.3% (YTD: -0.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	153.36	-0.1% (YTD: +1.0%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	19.09	-5.6% (YTD: +27.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.3% on Friday on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. The index is up 5.9% YTD.

In the green: Emirates Ins. Co. (+13.4%), Union Ins. Company (+10.4%), and Two Point Zero Group (+4.1%).

In the red: Hily Holding (-7.5%), Ins. House (-7.0%), and Investcorp Capital (-5.8%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.3% on turnover of AED 737 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.4%.

CALENDAR

MARCH

19-20 March (Thursday-Friday): Eid Al Fitr, public holiday.

31 March – 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March – 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 March-2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

6-9 April (Monday-Thursday): Dubai AI Week, Dubai.

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

29 April (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Annual MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June – 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit.
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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Today at a glance

THIS MORNING: Adia eyes another Indian renewables player’s IPO + FinMin raises AED 550 mn in T-sukuk

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This publication is proudly sponsored by

Non-oil GDP breaches AED 1 tn mark in 9M 2025

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Aldar locks in USD 1 bn from Apollo, tightens grip on income arm

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G42 doubles down on India with massive supercomputer

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Invictus posts AED 227.6 mn bottom line for 2025

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US, UAE ink commerce collaboration, Shipfinex eyes ship tokenization, and APT Global to build RAK facility

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When wars become a trade

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Today at a glance

THIS MORNING: Adia eyes another Indian renewables player’s IPO + FinMin raises AED 550 mn in T-sukuk

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Related

This publication is proudly sponsored by

Non-oil GDP breaches AED 1 tn mark in 9M 2025

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Aldar locks in USD 1 bn from Apollo, tightens grip on income arm

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G42 doubles down on India with massive supercomputer

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Invictus posts AED 227.6 mn bottom line for 2025

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US, UAE ink commerce collaboration, Shipfinex eyes ship tokenization, and APT Global to build RAK facility

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When wars become a trade

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