Good morning, friends, and happy FRIDAY. Conflicting reports of an Iranian attack on an Oracle data center in the UAE dominated our X feeds last night, until the Dubai Media Office refuted the claims in its own X post.
The other topic on everyone’s minds this past night? The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, for which 40 countries got on a call yesterday to discuss potential action. The meeting, which included the UAE, did not end with any specific agreements, but the countries agreed that Iran should not be allowed to toll passengers and that the Strait should be open to all.
Bahrain prepared a draft resolution, backed by the entire GCC and Jordan, that calls for the opening of the Strait by “all defensive means necessary” — meaning a sanctioning of the use of force to protect commercial shipping, which the UN will be voting on today. But it’s not likely much will come of it: China’s UN envoy Fu Cong said they’d be against the use of force, meaning it will likely veto the resolution.
In other news that’s closer to home, the Central Bank of the UAE is still very involved in keeping the banking system stable, with reports that it has injected some USD 31 bn in liquidity into the sector in recent days. We break down what this means and why the banking sector is exposed in this morning’s Big Story Today, below.
Meanwhile, M&A and investments are still moving ahead: Emirates NBD is looking much closer to an acquisition of India’s RBL Bank, after securing approval from India’s central bank, while Masdar and TotalEnergies just launched a JV pooling both of their Asian renewables assets into a single USD 2.2 bn entity.
PSA
IGCSE and A-level May exams cancelled: The war is seemingly sending a wave of panic across international education boards, with UK institutions, including OxfordAQA and Pearson Edexcel, cancelling all IGCSE and A-level exams in the UAE for the May/June season, Gulf News reports, citing an email sent to UAE schools yesterday. Decisions were made in close consultation with the UAE’s Education Ministry and local school authorities.
Students will be graded based on previously evaluated assessments and test scores, with the option for schools to submit predicted grades, according to a statement on OxfordAQA’s website. Schools were asked to digitally submit reports of student performances between 1 May and 12 June, along with a Head of Center declaration. Pearson Edexcel also cancelled IGCSE, International A-level, and iPLS exams for Bahrain, Kuwait, and Lebanon.
ICYMI- Earlier this week, the International Baccalaureate cancelled May exams, opting for final grades to be based on internal assessments and teacher-predicted grades. The Indian Central Board of Secondary Education also cut regional exams slated for March and April.
WEATHER- It’s a cloudy day ahead, with a high of 27°C and lows of 19-20°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, according to our favorite weather app.
Watch this space
INVESTMENT — Hillhouse — not spooked by the backdrop of a regional war — plants flag in ADGM: Global private equity heavyweight Hillhouse Investment has opened an office in ADGM, securing a Category 3C license as it deepens its presence in the UAE and wider Gulf, according to a statement (pdf). The move gives the firm an on-the-ground base to source agreements and deploy capital across the region.
“We have strong confidence in Abu Dhabi as one of the world’s most important financial and investment hubs,” Co-Chief Operating Officer Adam Hornung said.
This isn’t a cold start: As we’ve previously covered, Hillhouse already has exposure to the UAE across business services and education-focused real estate, having backed Ascentium’s acquisition of Dubai-based Virtuzone and investing via Rava Partners in assets including Hartland International School and the AED 453 mn NLCS real estate transaction. The firm was reportedly exploring an ADGM office as early as December 2024.
EDUCATION — Dubai’s Knowledge Fund Establishment (KFE) plans to add more than 35k student seats across over 30 education assets by 2028, according to Dubai Media Office. Dubai Schools is adding over 1k seats a year, with total capacity set to pass 7k students by 2028, driven by the launch of the Nad Al Sheba campus next academic year.
Funding is being reworked while focusing on supply: KFE is looking to stretch its current AED 1 bn+ portfolio, including by setting up an endowment-style fund to back scholarships and research.
The new strategy aims to fast-track land allocations, push new school projects into the pipeline, and build an investment base that can fund it without constant reliance on public backing. Low-fee school operators are explicitly part of that equation.
Happening today
S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for March should be out within the hour. While the non-oil private sector had hit a one-year high of 55 in February, the war is likely to have hit momentum and led to lead time delays and supply chain disruptions.
The big story abroad
US President Donald Trump is dominating headlines, even when it’s not about the Iran war. He ordered a 100% tariff to be slapped on all drug imports, save for those from countries where a trade agreement for drugs is in place, with the tariff lowered to 20% for companies that move some of its manufacturing to the US. Trump also adjusted tariffs for metals, halving the duty rate to 25% on many derivative products made with steel, aluminum and copper, and dropping them on products with minimal metals content.
Meanwhile, his dismissal of Attorney General Pam Bondi following months of controversy — including over the release of the Epstein files — is also getting a lot of play.
Across the pond, Goldman Sachs and Citi’s Paris staff are working from home after a thwarted bombing at Bank of America’s office in the French capital last week, which prosecutors said might be linked to a pro-Iranian group, the Financial Times reports.
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Oil watch
Opec+ is weighing an output increase it may not be able to deliver: Opec+’s eight members will meet on Sunday to discuss a possible increase in oil output — a step that would signal readiness to ramp up supply if flows through Hormuz resume, Reuters reports, citing two sources who said that formal consultations haven’t begun yet, while a third source said a pause remains on the table.
BACKGROUND- At its March meeting, Opec+ agreed to a modest 206k bbl / d increase for April after holding output flat in 1Q on oversupply concerns, just as the war began disrupting flows from key Middle East producers. A month later, that disruption escalated into the largest oil supply shock on record, with Saudi, Iraqi, Kuwaiti, and UAE output severely curtailed.
The main question is, how does any increase — if approved — actually reach the market? With no clear signs of a reopening of Hormuz, any increase would likely have little immediate impact on supply, serving merely as a signal that barrels are ready once tankers can move again. Other members such as Russia, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman sit outside the chokepoint, but their ability to raise output is limited.
“We need to react, at least on paper,” one Opec+ source told the newswire. The oil cartel is leaning on quotas as forward guidance rather than physical supply, using production targets to manage expectations. It’s a signaling game — an effort to cool down markets — until flows normalize.
The UAE is still moving barrels: Exports via Fujairah rose to 1.61 mn bbl / d in March from 1.17 mn bbl / d in February, accounting for nearly half of total UAE exports before the war.
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