earnings

Good morning, everyone. We’re starting the week with a somewhat quiet issue, but the stories we have for you are making a splash. Germany has tapped the UAE as part of its energy diversification drive, the US and the UAE have unveiled another part of their critical mineral collaboration plan, and Aldar and Dubai Holding are adding AED 38 bn to Dubai’s real estate scene.

Plus: Emirates NBD is reportedly making a play for another bank takeover in India, and the newly-consolidated 2PointZero Group has reported the fruits of its labor — AED 3.6 bn to be exact.

WEATHER- The hot weather continues in Dubai and Abu Dhabi this week, with today seeing a high of 27°C in Dubai and 28°C in Abu Dhabi. Dubai will see an overnight low of 19°C, while the capital will see a low of 18°C.

Watch this space

M&A WATCH — Emirates NBD makes its second M&A play for an Indian bank: Emirates NBD is among international suitors who submitted bids to acquire a stake in India’s state-owned Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI), a transaction expected to close next month, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are in the know.

Who else is vying for IDBI? The Dubai-based lender is reportedly competing against Canada’s Fairfax for 60.7% of IDBI — estimated to be worth over USD 7.5 bn. Reuters also name-checked Kotak Mahindra Bank as a potential bidder, but the bank denied the claim. IDBI Bank’s market cap sits at USD 12.6 bn, with its share price climbing 26% over the past year in anticipation of the sale, which was first announced in 2022.

This has been a long time coming: Emirates NBD was previously said to be eyeing the bank in 2024 and was among those shortlisted for the sale in August.

Our take? Emirates NBD’s twin bids for IDBI and RBL signal a multi-bn USD push into India that we think could eventually tilt toward consolidation. The bid suggests Emirates NBD’s push into India remains intact despite the regulatory hurdles it’s navigating. The DFM-listed lender’s USD 3 bn attempt to take over RBL Bank hit a snag last week, triggering change-of-control reviews.

India laid the groundwork for this divestment: IDBI was reclassified as a private-sector bank in 2019, bringing it under the 74% foreign ownership cap and allowing Emirates NBD to pursue a 60% stake. In addition, IDBI already has a footprint in Dubai through its DIFC-based corporate branch, which is regulated by the DFSA — a factor that could also help streamline the fit-and-proper due diligence for Emirates NBD.

CRITICAL MINERALS — The UAE and the US are moving to institutionalize how capital flows into critical minerals, signing a framework covering extraction to downstream manufacturing, Wam reports. The agreement came on the sidelines of the Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington.

The framework sets out a route for the two governments to expedite securing critical mineral supplies. It involves coordinating policy support and mobilizing public and private funding across mining, separation, processing, recycling, and advanced downstream industrial uses.

The timeline: Both sides will work to identify priority projects that close supply chain gaps and begin backing financing for the targeted projects within six months. In addition to financing, support will be offered via capital investments, ins., and regulatory facilitation. End production will target US and Emirati buyers.

The framework is a more concrete manifestation of Pax Silica, a US-led coalition, which the UAE joined in January, that aims to secure supply chains necessary for the AI sector. The continued alignment with the US in the critical mineral sphere has paid off so far, helping state AI firm G42 secure exports of 35k Nvidia Blackwell chips, which are vital for AI projects like the planned 5 GW UAE-US AI campus in Abu Dhabi.

TRANSPORT — Abu Dhabi greenlit its 2028 launch timeline for a high-speed seaglider network, signing an agreement with operator Versa, the Abu Dhabi Investment Office, and the Culture and Tourism Department, according to a statement. The electric wing-in-ground craft will initially link the capital to Al Dhafra before expanding to other routes across the UAE.

In other transport news: Abu Dhabi Mobility is expanding its robotaxi service to Khalifa City, Masdar City, and Rabdan. Operated via a partnership between WeRide, Uber, and Tawasul Transport, the service has moved beyond its initial testing grounds on Yas and Saadiyat islands into high-density residential and commercial hubs. The expansion introduces new routes connecting the Abu Dhabi Corniche to the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque.

BUSINESS — Saudi-UAE tensions begin to be felt in some circles: Several UAE companies pulled out of Saudi Arabia’s World Defense Show, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are in the know. The move comes amid growing friction over Yemen and regional security priorities.

Not a one-off: As we previously reported, some UAE firms say they are increasingly being forced to choose sides, citing difficulties securing Saudi business visas and pressure tied to Riyadh’s RHQ rules. Still, analysts remain cautiously optimistic, pointing to Saudi signals of de-escalation and the fact that Emirati institutions continue underwriting Saudi debt.

Elsewhere, diplomatic strain is playing out more formally: Algeria began procedures to cancel its 2013 air services agreement with the UAE, Reuters reports, citing state media. No official reason was given for the move. The General Civil Aviation Authority clarified that this decision will not result in any immediate impact on air traffic operations and that the agreement between both countries will remain in force during the legally mandated notice period.

TECH — G42 and partners are building data centers in Vietnam for USD 1 bn: A consortium led by state-owned AI firm G42 is investing up to USD 1 bn to build three data centers in Vietnam, according to a statement. The consortium — which includes technology and telecom player FPT and Viet Thai Group — will also roll out cloud computing services in the Southeast Asian country. Details regarding the timeline and computing capacity were not disclosed.

G42 is honing its pitch for data centers: Earlier this year, G42 rolled out its Digital Embassies framework and Greenshield, which allow nations to scale AI capabilities securely while retaining legal authority over their data and systems.

Happening today

The World Health Expo kicks off today and runs through Thursday, 12 February at the Dubai Exhibition Center. The event brings together industry leaders to showcase the latest healthcare advancements, including technology and research solutions to improve the global healthcare sector.

AIBC Eurasia is also underway, running from today through Wednesday at Dubai Festival City, with a focus on emerging sectors including blockchain, AI, fintech, loT, and big data.

Happening tomorrow

The AVCJ Private Equity Forum takes place tomorrow at the Four Seasons Hotel in Abu Dhabi. The investment summit will include discussion and networking sessions for international and regional fund managers as well as private equity players, focusing on core trends in the industry.

Also taking place this week:

  • The Forbes Middle East Top Advisors & Investors Summit takes place tomorrow and Wednesday at the Conrad Etihad Towers in Abu Dhabi;
  • The Family Office Summit will take place Wednesday, 11 February at Park Hyatt Dubai, bringing together principals, CIOs, and advisors to focus on governance, succession planning, alternative investments, and portfolio resilience.

The big story abroad

Global headlines are focused on Asian markets’ broad rally, riding the wave of incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in snap elections yesterday. In anticipation of Takaichi’s reflationary agenda — more spending and tax cuts — markets responded bullishly, sending Japan’s Nikkei climbing 4.2% to an all-time high.

Gold rebounded on the news: Partially boosted by Takaichi’s victory, gold rose above USD 5kper ounce, jumping as much as 1.7% in early trading, recovering half of the losses it sustained since dropping from a historic high late last month. Helping the recovery is also promising backing from the likes of Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and the Chinese central bank.

The Super Bowl LX is still underway, with the Seattle Seahawks leading the game at 29 points, while the New England Patriots behind at only seven points, as we press send. The Seahawks are seeking their second ever title, while the Patriots are fighting for the seventh title.

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