Dubai property market to finally normalize in 2026?

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: UAE bond yields spike amid global bond rout + Abu Dhabi’s L’Imad is now the owner of McLaren stake

Good morning, friends. We have a mixed bag of news for you this morning, but the headline stories are outlook pieces, as analysts look into their crystal balls for what’s to come in 2026.

First off: Dubai’s property market looks like it’s (finally) headed towards normalization, with ValuStrat forecasting 10% capital gains, and rents expected to stay flat for the first time in a long time.

Plus: Regional national oil firms are set to spend more than their international counterparts as they continue to expand production and diversify into more low-carbon alternatives.

ALSO- Earnings season has officially kicked off, and as usual, it’s the banks that have gotten us started. We unpack Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank and Commercial Bank of Dubai’s financials in the news well, below.

Happening today

It’s Davos week: World leaders, bankers, and global business leaders are in Switzerland this week for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, which runs through tomorrow. You can go deeper on the meeting’s microsite here.

The UAE is sending what it says is the fifth biggest delegation at Davos this year, with some 100 officials, ministers, and senior executives from major private companies set to attend, according to Wam. Dubai Culture and Arts Authority Chairwoman Latifa bint Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum is leading the delegation.

Besides a pavilion that is set to host a series of sessions, meetings, and media engagements, several officials are taking the stage for panels throughout the week. Keep an eye out for Damac’s Founder and Chairman Hussain Sajwani, who takes the stage alongside other regional leaders today for a session focused on the “Prosperity Agenda for the Middle East.”

Also happening today:

Umex Abu Dhabi, which wraps today at Adnec Center Abu Dhabi;
The Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development-led delegation to Italy, which also wraps up today;
The Sharjah Real Estate Exhibition (also known as Acres), which runs until Saturday at Expo Center Sharjah.

WEATHER- Is this what winter’s like? We’re continuing a run of cooler weather, with the mercury reaching a high of just 20°C in Dubai, with a chilly overnight low of 13°C, while Abu Dhabi will see temperatures peak at 23°C with an overnight low of 12°C.

DEBT — Middle East bonds have not been immune to this week’s bond rout. A rapid sell-off in Japanese and US government bonds earlier this week has left regional markets momentarily oversupplied as global yields spike, with yields on UAE 2034 USD-denominated government bonds rising 5 bps to 4.385% overnight, according to an Emirates NBD research note (pdf). Saudi and Turkish bonds also saw yields rise, while a GCC-wide index tracking regional credit is down 0.4% YTD, exceeding the 0.3% drop seen in broader emerging markets.

The underperformance is primarily a supply story rather than a signal of deteriorating credit health, Emirates NBD explains. The GCC primary market has been exceptionally active, issuing USD 28.4 bn in new debt in the first three weeks of 2026 — which already represents 15% of the total volume issued in 2025.

Strong fundamentals mean that the overall credit position of countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia remains a buffer against further dips, with investors expected to pivot back to the GCC’s high yields and strong credit, keeping spreads near record lows as conditions normalize.

Plus: Yields on US debt are already falling as geopolitical tensions seem to be easing, with US President Donald Trump saying he’s reached a framework agreement on Greenland (read more below).

IN OTHER DEBT NEWS- HSBC topped the MENA debt capital market leagues in 2025 for the second consecutive year, snapping up an 11% market share of bond bookrunning for the year, Zawya reports, citing LSEG data. The bank’s performance was anchored by its role in sovereign, Public Investment Fund, and corporate transactions in a year where the UAE trailed only Saudi Arabia as the world’s most active jurisdiction.

What to look for this year: HSBC expects Abu Dhabi and Sharjah to drive the 2026 pipeline alongside Saudi Arabia. “Dubai appears to be focused on deleveraging and is unlikely to tap the market in the near term unless it shifts its capex program toward a more expansionary stance,” Samer Deghaili, HSBC co-head of capital markets and advisory in MENAT, is quoted as saying.

Watch this space

AGRITRADE — Al Dahra focuses on production as it retires trading business: ADQ-backed agribusiness Al Dahra is looking to refocus its efforts on its European, US, and African farming operations as it plans to withdraw from the third-party grains and oilseeds trading market, Bloomberg reports, citing an emailed statement from the company. Cultivating and selling produce from its 250k acres of farmland is now a main priority as the firm — like other regional players in the sector — looks to secure food supply chains.

Al Dahra has been dipping out elsewhere: The shift follows the company’s recent exit from Romania’s grain trading market, a trading hotspot for Al Dahra following struggles amid increasing competition for a shrinking grain supply in the Black Sea market, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Emirati player posted three consecutive years of financial losses, opting to withdraw from trading in Romania while keeping its in-country farming and fertilizer business.

A good time to get out? Trading conditions in the region continue to fluctuate as Ukraine’s grain exports declined sharply in December, with volumes dropping 16% y-o-y due to a major escalation in Russian strikes on its main port infrastructure.

INVESTMENT — Abu Dhabi is corralling its mobility plays: The UAE has folded state-owned mobility investor Cyvn Holdings into its newest sovereign platform, L’imad Holding, consolidating high-profile stakes — including McLaren Racing and Chinese EV manufacturer Nio — under one umbrella, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

Cyvn brings real heft: As we’ve reported, Cyvn took full control of McLaren Racing alongside Bahrain’s Mumtalakat in a transaction valuing the team at more than GBP 3 bn last year, and holds an 18% stake in Nio, which established the UAE as its MENA base in 2024.

This fits L’imad’s mandate: When the fund appointed its board earlier this month, it named urban mobility as a priority sector alongside infrastructure and real estate, financial services, advanced industries, and smart cities.

AND- Mubadala is aiming to ramp up its investments in AI and robotics, Reuters quotes CEO Khaldoon Al Mubarak as saying. The fund is keen on ventures involving both sectors, as well as their application in industry and manufacturing, he said. It will also focus on other sectors including biotech, healthcare, and life sciences, while expanding its Africa portfolio, which includes an Africa-focused joint venture capital fund with France’s Bpifrance.

The focus is on the here and now, with rapid developments in the sector making it tricky to see just five years ahead, where once the fund opted for a 10-year strategy, he added.

The proof is in the paper trail. The sovereign fund was the largest state-owned spender on AI in 2025, with about USD 4.9 bn deployed. The fund has made more recent plays into energy, oil and gas, North American financial services and assets, and private equity and credit.

INDIA — The UAE government and the Indian state of Telangana have agreed to collaborate on the development of Bharat Future City, a planned greenfield urban project near Hyderabad, according to a post on X by the Telangana Chief Minister’s Office.

Project scope: Telangana has positioned Bharat Future City as a net-zero greenfield smart city spread across about 30k acres, with planned zones covering technology, education, healthcare, industry, and residential development. Discussions with the UAE included a proposal to form a joint task force to support implementation.

UAE-India relations are set to deepen after a visit by President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to New Delhi this week culminated in a commitment to double trade and ramp up investments, including across AI, space, and defense. The UAE is already set to be involved in the development of the Dholera Special Investment Region, a smart city development in Gujarat.

BANKING — Two pieces of FAB news are making the rounds:

#1- FAB now has a fitness tracking payment ring: First Abu Dhabi Bank is launching its own answer to wearable payments tech with a new fitness payment ring, in partnership with Mastercard, French defense tech and cybersecurity firm Thales, and Hong Kong-based wearable payment tech firm Tappy, according to a press release (pdf).

How it works: The ring allows users to tokenize their FAB-Mastercard debit and credit cards for tap-to-pay transactions. It uses a miniaturized secure chip from Thales to replace sensitive card details with Tappy’s tokenization technology for security.

#2- FAB opened a representative office in Istanbul, joining other UAE lenders like Emirates NBD, Mashreq, and Dubai Islamic Bank in expanding there, Bloomberg reports. Tolga Kisakurek (LinkedIn), who was formerly executive vice-president at Istanbul-based Dogan Investment Bank and has held director roles at HSBC and Citigroup, was tapped as managing director of the representative office.

Background: FAB had been trying to venture into Turkey through the acquisition of a majority stake in Turkish bank Yapi Kredi, but talks fell through last year due to disagreements over pricing.

BANKING — Another African lender is planting a flag in Dubai: CRDB Bank, Tanzania’s largest bank, opened a representative office in Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC), aiming to channel trade finance and investment flows between East and Central Africa and the Gulf.

We knew this was coming: CRDB secured approval from the Dubai Financial Services Authority in November, after quietly setting up its Dubai presence a month earlier as it courted Emirati capital.

CRDB joins a growing African banking cluster in Dubai: As we’ve reported, South Africa’s third largest bank Absa’s corporate and investment banking arm plans to open a representative office in 1Q 2026, while South African bank Investec established a DIFC office in 2024. Standard Bank, Rand Merchant Bank, and Nedbank are already on the ground — cementing Dubai’s role as a financial gateway to Africa.

Bigger picture: The banking inflow mirrors a fast-deepening UAE-Africa trade and investment corridor. This week, the UAE signed 16 MoUs with the Democratic Republic of Congo across mining, energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and digital transformation, following a newly inked trade partnership with Nigeria.

Data point

AED 65.6 bn — that was the total trading value of Sharjah’s real estate sector in 2025, surging 64.3% y-o-y, Wam reports. The growth marks the highest annual performance, underpinned by a 26.3% increase in total transaction volumes to 132.7k. Sharjah’s 2024 transactions came in at AED 40 bn overall.

The breakdown: Sales were up 38.4% y-o-y on the back of high demand for residential units, stable prices, and competitive rental yields. Mortgage values also rose 45.1% y-o-y to reach AED 15.5 bn, while ownership certificate transactions were up 17.6% y-o-y to 47.5k. While UAE nationals dominated the market, accounting for AED 33.6 bn in sales, some AED 18.5 bn came in from non-Arab investors, and non-Emirati Arab nationals accounted for AED 9.8 bn in sales.

The big story abroad

US President Donald Trump’s about-turn on Greenland and a potential detente between the US and the EU is dominating headlines everywhere, after he said the US has agreed on a framework for a future deal on the Danish country after meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Trump had earlier threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries who had opposed his plans to take over Greenland, and the EU bloc was mulling ways to retaliate.

Market reax: US stocks rallied on the news, while the USD recovered from an earlier slump this week.

ALSO- More Middle East countries have joined the US’ Board of Peace, following the lead of the UAE, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar. The board is set to begin executing Trump’s 20-step Gaza peace plan, and then reportedly address other global conflicts. (Reuters)

In AI news, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has been meeting with investors in the Middle East, including state-backed funds in Abu Dhabi, ahead of a new investment round that could see the ChatGPT maker raise up to USD 50 bn, Bloomberg reports.

ALSO- Siri is set to be revamped and turned into an AI chatbot as Apple looks to move ahead in the AI race. (Bloomberg)

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Market watch

The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees global oil demand rising further this year to 930k bbl / d, up from 850k bbl / d in 2025, with growth coming from non-OECD markets as global economic conditions normalize following last year’s tariff-induced volatility, according to its monthly oil report. The pickup reflects normalization after last year’s tariff shock. On the supply side, the IEA projects a 2.5 mn bbl / d rise to 108.7 mn bbl / d in 2026, down from the 3 mn bbl / d increase seen in 2025. Non-Opec+ delivers 1.3 mn bbl / d of this year’s growth.

The gap: The IEA now expects global supply to exceed demand by 4.25 mn bbl / d in 1Q, when refinery maintenance curbs crude runs and seasonal demand softens, according to Reuters ’ calculations. For the full year, the agency sees an implied surplus of 3.69 mn bbl / d, slightly narrower than the 3.84 bbl / d penciled in last month’s report.

Opec still holds its no surplus argument: Opec expects global oil demand to rise by 1.39 mn bbl / d this year, while demand for Opec crude looks stable at 43 mn bbl / d. If Opec holds this rate through 2026, supply would sit some 170k bbl / d below demand.

IEA has not published its 2027 forecast yet — it will do so in April’s edition, per the agency’s timetable.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.

Dubai property market set to normalize in 2026, though pockets of rapid growth persist

Most analysts were forecasting a correction in Dubai’s property market last year, but with prices rising nearly 20% in 2025, that forecast seems to have been pushed ahead another year. A ValuStrat market outlook (pdf) sees capital gains slowing to 10% in 2026, though the slowdown is uneven.

The good news is for those of you who rent: Residential rental growth is forecast to flatline at 0.0% in 2026 as rents seem to have hit a ceiling.

Sales are also expected to taper off amid a slowdown in offplan project launches over the next year, according to ValuStrat.

On the other hand, if you’re eyeing a villa or a townhouse, don’t expect prices to let up. Villas and townhouses — less than 20% of total housing stock — are still projected to post 17.7% price growth, more than double that of apartments at 7.4%. The driver isn’t speculation, but a persistent shortage of single-family homes.

Supply won’t fix it: While 131.2k residential units sit in the pipeline, more than 80% are apartments, and ValuStrat warns that actual deliveries will likely undershoot due to construction delays, leaving the villa gap largely unaddressed.

Office prices are set to grow at a faster rate

Capital values and rents are forecast to rise 15% in 2026, bucking the global death of the office narrative. Occupancy is already near 90%, while just 1.6 mn sq ft of new supply is expected, pointing to a sustained squeeze in Grade-A stock.

Demand is being driven by corporate relocations, new business formation, and sustained inflows of global talent, as Dubai continues to reinforce its role as a regional headquarters hub even as other global cities retrench.

Population pressure is rising faster than headline residency figures suggest. While Dubai’s resident population is projected to reach 4.7 mn, its peak-hour population (including commuters and tourists) is already hitting 6.5 mn, stretching transport, utilities, and logistics.

That density gap helps explain the emirate’s largest-ever budget cycle, with the 2026 budget alone totaling AED 99.5 bn and earmarking 48% for infrastructure, effectively underwriting real estate demand by expanding capacity rather than trying to cool prices.

Retail, on the other hand, is facing growing headwinds. E-commerce sales are projected to reach AED 63.2 bn by 2027, putting sustained pressure on bricks-and-mortar operators.

The bigger picture

Dubai’s property market isn’t overheating, it’s stratifying. Slower aggregate growth masks acute shortages in villas and prime offices, while infrastructure spending is doing the heavy lifting to keep the system functional as density rises. For investors, 2026 looks less like a momentum trade and more like a wager on scarcity, format, and location.

Gulf national oil companies are spending more than international counterparts in the next two years

Gulf national oil firms continue to ramp up spending, though with some refocusing: GCC national oil companies (NOCs) are expected to be bigger spenders than international oil firms over the next two years as they double down on renewables and downstream energy capacity, and continue to execute their diversification plans, according to an S&P Global report.

By the numbers: Gulf NOCs’ spending is estimated to average around USD 115-125 bn between 2025 and 2027, up from USD 110-115 bn in 2024, albeit with spending growth coming in at a more moderate rate than previous years.

Meanwhile, international oil players appear likely to rein in spending, continuing the downward trend seen over the past 18 months as weaker oil prices persist.

Gulf NOCs want to level up their value chain + upstream operations

The uptick in spending is coming primarily on the back of expansion plans in the UAE and Qatar, while the majority of Saudi Arabia’s spending is set to go toward maintenance costs. Gulf players’ focus is likely to stay on upstream activities, particularly production and exploration, as they pursue better value-chain integration through trading and a more reliable flow of feedstock from upstream to downstream operations.

REMEMBER- Adnoc recently signed off on a USD 150 bn capex plan through 2030, as it looks to expand production capacity to 5 mn bbl / d by 2027.

LNG + renewables are key for the next stage

Gulf players are increasingly directing investments toward gas projects and expanding their international footprint. Regional NOCs plan to continue increasing their renewables deployment and acquiring stakes in clean energy leaders, while expanding their low-carbon energy portfolios through increased low-carbon hydrogen capacity and LNG expansion. Diversification efforts will likely also involve boosting downstream activities through better integration and more investments in refineries.

REMEMBER- Adnoc has been a big spender on gas overseas: Adnoc’s low-carbon investment unit XRG acquired a 10% stake in Mozambique’s Rovuma basin and inked a production sharing contract for Turkmenistan’s Block I gas, and is planning to develop an LNG project in Argentina.

So, why is capex spending rising at a slower rate?

Major capacity expansion projects are nearing completion and production from recent megaprojects is set to come online soon. While overall capex will remain high due to investments in production capacity, moderating spending allows GCC NOCs to manage liquidity, protect credit quality, and reduce pressure on the oilfield services sector.

This reduction might negatively impact other elements of the industry: A tighter spending approach is expected to reduce rig demand, stabilize average day rates, and put pressure on oilfield service providers’ margins. On the other hand, industry consolidation may help rebalance rig supply and demand, providing support for day rates.

Looking ahead

GCC NOCs’ spending plans remain resilient to moderately lower oil prices in the short term, given adequate financial buffers to absorb price fluctuations while maintaining strong credit metrics.

For now, oil price forecasts are highly uncertain: Most analysts are expecting Brent to hover between USD 60 and USD 65 a barrel this year, though markets remain volatile amid geopolitical tensions and warnings of a potential supply glut.

The earnings hour is upon us: CBD and ADIB kick things off

ADIB closed 2025 with a 16% bottom line jump

Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) reported a 20% y-o-y jump in 4Q net income after tax to AED 1.8 bn, alongside a 20% rise in operating income to AED 3.2 bn, as financing volumes and fee income offset the impact of lower rates, according to its full-year management discussion and analysis (pdf).

For 2025, ADIB posted AED 7.1 bn in net income after tax, up 16% y-o-y, on AED 12.3 bn in revenue, also up 16% y-o-y. Customer financing expanded 26% to AED 186 bn, deposits grew 25% to AED 229 bn, and non-funded income rose 17%, lifting fee income to 39% of operating revenue and pointing to more diversified income streams.

Capital and outlook: The bank proposed an AED 3.5 bn dividend, or 97 fils per share, marking an AED 495 mn boost from the last payout.

CBD posts AED 3.5 bn income for 2025

Commercial Bank of Dubai (CBD) reported a 15.5% y-o-y increase in net income to AED 3.5 bn in 2025, according to its financials (pdf) and a separate management discussion and analysis report (pdf). Total operating income increased 7.8% y-o-y to reach AED 5.9 bn, underpinned by a 9.3% uptick in interest income on the back of strong loan and CASA balances.

Driving the growth: The bank attributed its performance to strong customer demand, robust lending activity, and continued engagement from businesses and public sector investors. Demand from individuals and businesses led CBD to issue over AED 100 bn in loans, up 8.6% y-o-y.

Interim CEO steps in at Tabreed

Tabreed names interim CEO: UAE district cooling firm Tabreed tapped Yousif Al Hammadi (LinkedIn) as the firm’s interim CEO, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). This follows former CEO Khalid Al Marzooqi’s (LinkedIn) retirement in November.

Al Hammadi joined the firm in 2014, having most recently served as chief asset management officer. He was previously vice president of Mubadala’s construction management division and currently sits on the board of Pal Cooling, which was acquired by Tabreed last year.

AD Ports sells off more land, more local defense production agreements, another AI startup funding round, and a big-ticket Abu Dhabi real estate project

AD Ports sells off more Kezad land

AD Ports Group sold Kezad Logistics Park Freezone 3 to Mair Group for AED 295 mn, extending a run of capital recycling transactions, according to a press release (pdf). The sale will see the Abu Dhabi investment firm snap up four warehouse blocks, while AD Ports retains long-term control of the land under a 50-year Musataha agreement.

The move is an asset reset rather than an exit, continuing the state player’s plan to optimize land assets and liberate liquidity for expansion plans. Since last October, the group has recycled more than AED 4.2 bn through similar plays, including transactions with Mira Developments (AED 2.5 bn), Danube (AED 840 mn), and Aldar (AED 570 mn). Management has consistently framed these sales as a way to monetize non-core assets, strengthen its balance sheet, and redeploy capital.

Adex backs bigger wagers in transition trade

The Abu Dhabi Exports Office (Adex) expanded a revolving credit facility for Swiss-based energy and commodities trader BGN to USD 400 mn, up from USD 282.5 mn, according to a press release. The added headroom comes as BGN eyes growth across LNG, critical minerals, metals, and transition fuels.

The setup: The facility was oversubscribed and syndicated across 15 lenders spanning the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, with First Abu Dhabi Bank acting as sole coordinator and bookrunner.

The UAE is doubling down on unmanned systems

The Defense Ministry inked contracts worth AED 2.4 bn across the first two days of Umex and SimTex, according to a press release. This included purchases of aircraft and drones by Edge, a variety of equipment and vehicles by Habari Defense and Security. This adds to some AED 879.8 mn in contracts signed on day one.

Calidus, Hameem, Aergility partner to build VTOL aircraft locally

Local defense production just got another push: Abu Dhabi-based defense contractor Calidus and technology firm Hameem Technologies are partnering with US aerospace company Aergility to develop and manufacture the Alrasid and Altaresh unmanned VTOL aircraft in the UAE, Wam reports. The aircraft, designed for intelligence, surveillance, and logistics operations, will be produced at Calidus’ facilities in Abu Dhabi.

ICYMI- This follows a busy week for Emirati defense: Calidus also teamed up with US firm General Atomics to locally produce two unmanned aircraft, while Edge and Qatar’s Barzan Holdings set up a JV for advanced defense tech and Tawazun Council signed AED 880 mn in contracts for autonomous air and maritime systems.

OpenCX raises USD 7 mn in funding

UAE’s OpenCX secures USD 7 mn to scale AI-driven customer communications: UAE-based customer communication platform OpenCX raised USD 7 mn in a funding round led by US-based Y Combinator and Saudi Arabia’sX by Unifonic, with participation from Abu Dhabi’s Shorooq Partners, according to a press release. The capital will support the firm’s GCC-focused expansion plans, which include opening an office in Saudi Arabia within the next few months.

OpenCX? Founded in 2022 by Mohammad Gharbat (LinkedIn) and Mohammad Tabaza (LinkedIn), OpenCX uses AI agents to provide automated solutions for customer support operations, serving sectors like fintech and healthcare.

Abu Dhabi is pulling big-ticket capital again

Dubai-based developer Object One has agreed to acquire four waterfront plots on Abu Dhabi’s Reem Island with a total development value of AED 4.5 bn, marking one of the capital’s larger land as of late, according to a press release. Located in the Shams Gate district, the sites span more than 2 mn sq ft of developable area and follow Object One’s recent expansion into Abu Dhabi.

Why it matters: The move highlights Abu Dhabi’s rising appeal to developers long focused on Dubai, as capital tracks population growth and infrastructure spending in the capital. Object One brings a Dubai track record that includes more than 2.6k delivered homes and over 4.5 mn sq ft of projects.

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GCC debt markets to hit USD 1.25 tn this year

GCC debt markets are on track to break the USD 1.25 tn mark in 2026 as the region leans into borrowing to fund growth, up from USD 1.1 tn last year, according to Fitch Ratings’ GCC Debt Capital Markets MENA Monitor 2026 report (pdf). Issuers are borrowing to refinance maturing debt, fund deficits, and bankroll large projects at home, the report said. “Continued investor diversification, a wider range of funding tools and a potentially more supportive global rate environment should help sustain momentum,” Sarah Alyasiri, capital markets analyst at CF Trade, told EnterpriseAM, pointing to “a positive outlook for 2026 and beyond.”

Why it matters: In addition to a larger issuance volume, the flashing signal is the funding mix for the region’s massive infrastructure pipeline. With Fitch forecasting oil prices to stay range bound around USD 63/bbl in 2026, governments and corporates are pivoting to debt to plug funding deficits and keep giga-projects moving. The expected US Federal Reserve rate cuts (forecasted at 3.25% for 2026) will lower borrowing costs just as oil revenues soften, making the bond and sukuk markets the most attractive route for capital.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to be the primary engines, holding a combined 75% of the region’s outstanding debt (Saudi at 46%, UAE at 29%). Qatar comes at a distant third, with 12%, followed by Bahrain at 5%, and Kuwait, and Oman at 4% each. Sukuk now make up a record 41% of the total market, with USD-denominated sukuk issuance surging 72% last year, significantly outpacing the 26.1% growth seen in conventional bonds. The GCC accounted for 35% of emerging markets (ex China) USD issuance last year.

Who’s buying: As global portfolios branch out, Asian money has emerged as a steady source of support for GCC debt, Alyasiri added. Gulf bonds and sukuk offer “an attractive combination of relatively higher yields, strong credit quality and economic stability,” she said, helping position the region as a competitive alternative to comparable debt in both Asian and developed markets. Quality remains high, with 84% of Fitch-rated sukuk sitting in the investment-grade category, Fitch said.

Kuwait is back: After an eight-year hiatus, Kuwait re-entered the chat with USD 11.25 bn in sovereign bonds, signaling a broader regional return to international markets.

Downside risks: Fitch flagged that local-currency issuance is uneven and largely sovereign-driven, with limited participation from banks and corporates. Outside Saudi Arabia — where SAR issuance is more active — most issuers remain reliant on USD markets, leaving funding strategies exposed to global liquidity and rate cycles. The ratings agency also highlighted widening gaps in market sophistication, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE pushing ahead with structural reforms, including fixed-income market-making in Saudi and a broader Islamic finance strategy in the UAE. Qatar expanded its primarydealer framework and, alongside the UAE, issued digitally native notes.

What’s next

Watch for a rise in alternative funding: While public markets are growing, Fitch notes that Saudi issuers are increasingly utilizing private credit and syndicated financing to diversify their toolkit.

Also expect a surge in capital instruments: “If economic growth continues north of 4%, [Saudi] banks need to expand their capitalization and revisit their risk matrix so it fits better with what’s going on in the economy, which is very serious,” Ihsan Buhulaiga, a Saudi economist, told the Financial Times. “You cannot just sit pretty and say ‘OK, we’ll continue as usual as we used to do in 2010.’ No, things are different now.” Saudi banks’ loan-to-deposit ratio climbed to around 106.2% by 9M 2025, well above UAE peers at roughly 75%, according to a report by Alvarez & Marsal, reflecting how credit growth has outpaced deposit inflows and pushed banks toward external funding sources.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Markets are rebounding from this week’s bout of volatility, riding the high of US President Donald Trump walking back on previous threats to impose tariffs on EU countries over Greenland. Asia-Pacific markets are uniformly in the green in early trading, led by South Korea’s Kospi, buoyed by Samsung SDI, Samsung Electronics, and Doosan. US markets are also on track to open in the green later today on the same tailwinds.

ADX	10,206	+0.1% (YTD: +2.1%)
DFM	6,397	+0.4% (YTD: +5.8%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	5,108	+0.0% (YTD: +4.5%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	3.7% 1 yr
TASI	10,948	+0.3% (YTD: +4.4%)
EGX30	46,049	+0.3% (YTD: +10.1%)
S&P 500	6,876	+1.2% (YTD: +0.4%)
FTSE 100	10,138	+0.1% (YTD: +2.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,883	-0.2% (YTD: +1.6%)
Brent crude	USD 65.28	+0.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 5.04	+3.3%
Gold	USD 4,787	-1.1%
BTC	USD 89,988	+1.8% (YTD: +2.7%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.78	-0.5% (YTD: +0.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	515.17	-0.3% (YTD: -0.5%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	USD 16.90	-15.9% (YTD: +13.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. The index is up 2.1% YTD.

In the green: Ins. House (+13.5%), Hayah Ins. Company (+9.9%), and Pure Health Holding (+9.4%).

In the red: E7 Group Warrants (-9.8%), Emirates Ins. Co (-4.1%), and Orascom Construction (-3.9%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.4% on turnover of AED 556.6 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai remained flat.

CALENDAR

JANUARY

21-24 January (Wednesday-Saturday): Acres Real Estate Exhibition, Expo Center, Sharjah.

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 January – 7 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, International Tennis Center, Zayed Sports City.

FEBRUARY

Signposted to happen sometime this month: Investopia, Lagos, Nigeria.

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit, Dubai.

4 February (Wednesday) Ministerial dialogue for Pax Silica members, Washington, DC.

4-5 February (Wednesday-Thursday): PropTech Connect Middle East, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

4-6 February (Wednesday-Friday): Arab Actuarial Conference, Millennium Plaza Downtown Hotel, Dubai.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 February (Monday-Friday): World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Top Advisors and Investors Summit, Abu Dhabi.

MARCH

31 March – 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March – 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

MAY

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

JUNE

15 June – 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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