Gold hit a fresh record yesterday, climbing 2.4% to around USD 4.5k per ounce as the recent escalation of the US blockade on Venezuelan oil drove the rush to so-called “safe haven” assets. Silver also touched a new high, rising 3.4% to around USD 69.44 an ounce.

It has been a breakout year for gold: Gold is up about 68% YTD — its strongest annual performance since the late 1970s — driven by trade tensions, US fiscal anxiety, and growing doubts over central-bank independence, the Financial Times writes. Investors are increasingly turning to gold, not equities, as their hedge of choice.

Central banks are doing much of the heavy lifting: JPMorgan estimates gold demand from investors and official buyers surged to around 980 tonnes in 3Q, more than 50% above recent norms, with purchases expected to remain elevated into 2026.

What the pundits are saying: JPMorgan expects prices to break USD 5k by late 2026, while Goldman Sachs is close behind, penciling in a price of USD 4.9k by December 2026, citing Fed easing and structurally strong demand, Reuters and IDNFinancials report. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, expects it to peak at USD 4.5k by mid-2026.

Positioning suggests the trade isn’t crowded — yet: JPMorgan estimates gold accounts for about 2.8% of global investor portfolios, up from 1.5% pre-2022 but still below levels seen in prior commodity supercycles, leaving room for allocations to rise toward 4-5%.

Still, warning lights are flashing: The BIS recently flagged “bubble-like” conditions in both gold and US equities — a rare overlap — cautioning that rapid price gains and retail inflows could leave bullion vulnerable to sharp pullbacks.

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MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are in the green this morning, tracking gains on Wall Street. Leading gains are South Korea’s Kospi, up 0.6%, and the small-cap Kosdaq, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up almost 0.3%, as China’s CSI 300 and Japan’s Nikkei are up marginally. Over on Wall Street, futures are near the flatline following yesterday’s gains.

ADX

10,036

+0.7% (YTD: +6.4%)

DFM

6,157.9

+0.7% (YTD: +19%)

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20

4,925

+1.6% (YTD: +6.7%)

USD : AED CBUAE

Buy 3.67

Sell 3.67

EIBOR

3.6% o/n

3.7% 1 yr

Tadawul

10,552

+0.7% (YTD: -12.3%)

EGX30

4,416.53

+0.1% (YTD: +43.1%)

S&P 500

6,879

+0.6% (YTD: +17.0%)

FTSE 100

9,866

-0.3% (YTD: +20.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,744

-0.3% (YTD: +17.3%)

Brent crude

USD 62.07

+2.7%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 57.89

-0.2%

Gold

USD 4,486.40

+0.4%

BTC

USD 88,553.8

-0.7% (YTD: -5.5%)

Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF

AED 3.82

+0.5% (YTD: +9.7%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.80

0.0% (YTD: +8.5%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

14.08

-5.6% (YTD: -19.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.7% yesterday on turnover of AED 639.9 mn. The index is up 19% YTD.

In the green: Gulfnav (+14.6%), Takaful Emarat (+11.2%) and United Foods (+5.5%).

In the red: Sukoon Takaful (-8.5%), Chimera S&P UAE Shariah ETF- Share class B – Income

(-7.9%), and Aramex (-4.3%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.7% on turnover of AED 2.1 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1.6%.

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