Good morning, lovely people. We kick off the first full workweek of October with a busy, macro-heavy issue, led by the latest data on the UAE’s non-oil private sector in September, which showed signs of recovery from an earlier slump amid rising demand. Plus: The IMF upgraded its growth forecast for the UAE by 0.8%, and now expects growth to come in at 4.8%. Meanwhile, Moody’s maintained both Abu Dhabi and the UAE’s credit ratings.

We also have a market wrap-up for September, showing the strongest monthly gains for GCC equities in nearly two years, though the ADX and DFM fell after a strong rally earlier in the year.

WEATHER- Temperatures will hover around 38°C by day and 28°C at night in Dubai, while Abu Dhabi could see a high of 37°C, with humidity lingering through the evening.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Binghatti in talks with banks on IPO: Our friends at EFG Hermes, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Emirates NBD are advising Dubai-based property developer Binghatti Holding on a potential public offering, Bloomberg quotes people familiar with the matter as saying. Details such as the timeline or the size of the stake to be taken public have yet to be finalized, the source said. A Binghatti spokesman said the company “does not comment on speculation,” while the banks also declined to comment.

REMEMBER- Binghatti was said to be in talks with banks for a potential IPO last month as it looked to capitalize on the emirate’s real estate boom, joining a crowded pipeline of Dubai IPOs that already includes Alec, Arabian Construction, and Dubizzle. DFM-listed Dubai Investments is also preparing to list up to 25% of its Dubai Investments Park Development company unit — which houses mixed-use real estate developments — by February.

#2- MGX reportedly in talks to invest in Texan data center firm: Abu Dhabi AI investor MGX is involved in discussions alongside BlackRock’s infrastructure fund Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) to further invest in Aligned Data Centers as part of an acquisition of the firm from financial group Macquarie, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. While nothing has been finalized as of yet, a formal agreement could come in the next few days. Mubadala already backs Aligned since 2023.

A USD 40 bn target: Aligned previously secured over USD 12 bn in equity and debt commitments from investors in January. Its current and future pipeline includes 126 data centers and campuses across the US, South America, and Canada. It is estimated to be valued at around USD 40 bn — meaning any takeover would be among the largest this year, the Financial Times reports.

MGX has been doubling down on investments so far this year, with the firm eyeing up the launch of a USD 25 bn fund for AI infrastructure investments. It is also committing USD 100 bn to the first phase of the Stargate AI infrastructure fund, pledging USD 30-50 bn of initial investments in data centers in France, and backing a USD 30 bn AI infrastructure fund launched by BlackRock and GIP. It also recently invested in OpenAI as part of its latest secondary share sale, and in San Francisco-based software company Databricks.

#3- Rothschild has reportedly replaced Alvarez & Marsal as adviser to Dubai-based consumer goods group IFFCO, which is working to restructure around USD 2 bn in debt owed to lenders, Bloomberg reported, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The Paris-based firm will focus on shoring up liquidity, leading creditor negotiations, and exploring fresh funding options and potential sales of non-core assets, the sources said. The restructuring could rank among the largest in the Middle East in recent years, following major restructurings by Saudi Binladin Group, NMC Health, and KBBO Group.

Creditors, advised by PwC, include several Dubai and Abu Dhabi-based banks, with HSBC said to be among the most exposed, one of the sources said.

#4- Millennium taps hires for Dubai-based commodities trading team: MillenniumManagement, the investment management firm with USD 79 bn in assets under management, is setting up an investment team in Dubai to specialize in trading across commodities markets, Bloomberg reports, citing a person familiar with the matter. Founded by Israel Englander, Millennium tapped Ylan Alder (LinkedIn), previously partner and head of commodities at SPX Capital, to lead the new team, which is expected to begin operations early next year.

#5- Tanzania’s largest bank eyes UAE investments with new Dubai office: Tanzania’s largest bank, CRDB Bank, has opened an office in Dubai, Managing Director Abdulmajid Mussa Nsekela told Bloomberg in an interview (watch, runtime: 2:41). The emirate’s central geographical position — linking global business communities — was behind the move, as it looks to court both Emirati and global investors for its infrastructure projects. The expansion marks CRDB’s first beyond neighboring countries — and makes it the first East African bank to establish a presence in the UAE, Nsekela added.

#6- Masdar among shortlisted bidders for Kuwait solar project: A consortium comprising Abu Dhabi’s Masdar and Kuwaiti conglomerate Fouad Alghanim and Sons General Trading and Contracting is among five shortlisted to bid for Kuwait’s 500 MW Al Dibdibah and Al Shagaya Renewable Energy Phase III solar independent power producer, according to a Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (KAPP) statement. Also shortlisted are Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power, France’s EDF Renewables, Hong Kong-based Jinko Power, and China’s Tianjin Zhonghuan New Energy.

Project details: Located about 100 km west of Kuwait City in Jahra Governorate, the project will operate under a 30-year power purchase agreement with the Electricity, Water, and Renewable Energy Ministry, TradeArabia reports. The top bidder will design, finance, build, operate, and maintain the plant, which will feed power into Kuwait’s national grid as part of the country’s wider renewables drive.

ADVISORS- KAPP has appointed EY as financial advisor, DLA Piper as counsel, and DNV as technical consultant.

#7- Mubadala involved in Janus Henderson USD 125 mn GCC credit fund: British-American global asset management group Janus Henderson rolled out a USD 125 mn shariah-compliant credit fund focused on the GCC, CEO Ali Dibaj told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 14:08). Launched in partnership with Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala and the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, the fund will lend to and invest in SMEs in the region.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- AgraME will take place today and tomorrow at the Dubai World Center. The event brings together regional and international agribusiness players to explore innovations in sustainable agriculture, crop production, aquaculture, and food security solutions, with a focus on advancing agritech and climate-smart farming practices across the MENA region.

#2- TheForex Expo is also happening today and tomorrow at the Dubai World Trade Center. The two-day event gathers global forex brokers, investors, and fintech companies for panels and discussions on currency markets, AI-driven trading systems, and digital asset integration.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

QuantumMaritime Conference will take place on Wednesday and Thursday in Mussafah, Abu Dhabi. The conference convenes maritime executives, policymakers, and technology specialists to examine digital transformation in shipping, port automation, and sustainable fleet management, with sessions dedicated to decarbonization, cybersecurity, and AI-led operational efficiency in maritime logistics.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Gold and BTC hit fresh highs to start the week as investors flock to safe haven assets amid a government shutdown that is now entering its sixth day. Gold rose to USD 3,920.63 an ounce, before paring some gains, while BTC reached USD 125,689 for the first time early yesterday. BTC’s rise also comes during a month that has historically been a strong month for digital assets’ performance — earning it the nickname “Uptober.”

Gold’s rise is featured on Bloomberg and Financial Times’ front pages, while BTC’s new record got attention from Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC.

ALSO- Egypt is set to host talks between Israel and Hamas today to discuss the US President Donald Trump-proposed ceasefire agreement. The two sides will discuss the conditions for a ceasefire in Gaza and the details of the hostage exchange. Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are already in Cairo to finalize details of the hostage release and discuss the broader peace framework.

Trump is “positive” that the first phase of negotiations should be completed this week, he said in a social media post, while US Secretary of State Marc Rubio said we are closer than we have been “in a very long time” in an interview with Fox News Sunday, though the hostage release and prisoner exchange could be the easiest part of negotiations. The tougher parts? Discussions around rebuilding governing Gaza, he told ABC. (Bloomberg | Reuters | FT)

This comes after Hamas responded to Trump’s proposal over the weekend, with the foreign ministers of the UAE, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt welcoming Hamas’ response in a joint statement and calling for an immediate launch of negotiations.

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OIL WATCH-

Opec+ members will add a total of 137k bbl / d to production again next month, according to a press release. The group approved the same additional number of barrels for October as part of the group’s gradual unwinding of its 1.65 mn bbl / d voluntary cuts. The next meeting is scheduled for 2 November.

Opinions diverged among the bloc’s two biggest producers for this month’s hike. Russia reportedly pushed to maintain the same small hike as in October, citing both market stability and its limited ability to raise supply under Western sanctions, Reuters reports, citing two sources. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, favored a faster pace of restoration — with proposals ranging from double to quadruple the final figure — as the Kingdom seeks to reclaim market share, Reuters said, citing sources before the meeting.

Only around 60% of the 2.2 mn bbl / d tranche planned for restoration between May and September has materialized, highlighting the limited spare capacity within the cartel, Bloomberg reports.. The shortfall reflects both ongoing compensation for previous overproduction by some members and the possibility that others are already nearing their maximum output.

REMEMBER- Unsold Middle Eastern crude from the last trading cycle is stoking concerns that a long-anticipated global oil surplus may be starting to take shape. A better read of balances will emerge once Saudi and other Gulf suppliers issue November allocations to long-term contract buyers soon.

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