Non-oil private sector recovers to seven-month high in September

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Binghatti taps banks for IPO + Opec+ agrees to another production hike in November

Good morning, lovely people. We kick off the first full workweek of October with a busy, macro-heavy issue, led by the latest data on the UAE’s non-oil private sector in September, which showed signs of recovery from an earlier slump amid rising demand. Plus: The IMF upgraded its growth forecast for the UAE by 0.8%, and now expects growth to come in at 4.8%. Meanwhile, Moody’s maintained both Abu Dhabi and the UAE’s credit ratings.

We also have a market wrap-up for September, showing the strongest monthly gains for GCC equities in nearly two years, though the ADX and DFM fell after a strong rally earlier in the year.

WEATHER- Temperatures will hover around 38°C by day and 28°C at night in Dubai, while Abu Dhabi could see a high of 37°C, with humidity lingering through the evening.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Binghatti in talks with banks on IPO: Our friends at EFG Hermes, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Emirates NBD are advising Dubai-based property developer Binghatti Holding on a potential public offering, Bloomberg quotes people familiar with the matter as saying. Details such as the timeline or the size of the stake to be taken public have yet to be finalized, the source said. A Binghatti spokesman said the company “does not comment on speculation,” while the banks also declined to comment.

REMEMBER- Binghatti was said to be in talks with banks for a potential IPO last month as it looked to capitalize on the emirate’s real estate boom, joining a crowded pipeline of Dubai IPOs that already includes Alec, Arabian Construction, and Dubizzle. DFM-listed Dubai Investments is also preparing to list up to 25% of its Dubai Investments Park Development company unit — which houses mixed-use real estate developments — by February.

#2- MGX reportedly in talks to invest in Texan data center firm: Abu Dhabi AI investor MGX is involved in discussions alongside BlackRock’s infrastructure fund Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) to further invest in Aligned Data Centers as part of an acquisition of the firm from financial group Macquarie, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. While nothing has been finalized as of yet, a formal agreement could come in the next few days. Mubadala already backs Aligned since 2023.

A USD 40 bn target: Aligned previously secured over USD 12 bn in equity and debt commitments from investors in January. Its current and future pipeline includes 126 data centers and campuses across the US, South America, and Canada. It is estimated to be valued at around USD 40 bn — meaning any takeover would be among the largest this year, the Financial Times reports.

MGX has been doubling down on investments so far this year, with the firm eyeing up the launch of a USD 25 bn fund for AI infrastructure investments. It is also committing USD 100 bn to the first phase of the Stargate AI infrastructure fund, pledging USD 30-50 bn of initial investments in data centers in France, and backing a USD 30 bn AI infrastructure fund launched by BlackRock and GIP. It also recently invested in OpenAI as part of its latest secondary share sale, and in San Francisco-based software company Databricks.

#3- Rothschild has reportedly replaced Alvarez & Marsal as adviser to Dubai-based consumer goods group IFFCO, which is working to restructure around USD 2 bn in debt owed to lenders, Bloomberg reported, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The Paris-based firm will focus on shoring up liquidity, leading creditor negotiations, and exploring fresh funding options and potential sales of non-core assets, the sources said. The restructuring could rank among the largest in the Middle East in recent years, following major restructurings by Saudi Binladin Group, NMC Health, and KBBO Group.

Creditors, advised by PwC, include several Dubai and Abu Dhabi-based banks, with HSBC said to be among the most exposed, one of the sources said.

#4- Millennium taps hires for Dubai-based commodities trading team: Millennium Management, the investment management firm with USD 79 bn in assets under management, is setting up an investment team in Dubai to specialize in trading across commodities markets, Bloomberg reports, citing a person familiar with the matter. Founded by Israel Englander, Millennium tapped Ylan Alder (LinkedIn), previously partner and head of commodities at SPX Capital, to lead the new team, which is expected to begin operations early next year.

#5- Tanzania’s largest bank eyes UAE investments with new Dubai office: Tanzania’s largest bank, CRDB Bank, has opened an office in Dubai, Managing Director Abdulmajid Mussa Nsekela told Bloomberg in an interview (watch, runtime: 2:41). The emirate’s central geographical position — linking global business communities — was behind the move, as it looks to court both Emirati and global investors for its infrastructure projects. The expansion marks CRDB’s first beyond neighboring countries — and makes it the first East African bank to establish a presence in the UAE, Nsekela added.

#6- Masdar among shortlisted bidders for Kuwait solar project: A consortium comprising Abu Dhabi’s Masdar and Kuwaiti conglomerate Fouad Alghanim and Sons General Trading and Contracting is among five shortlisted to bid for Kuwait’s 500 MW Al Dibdibah and Al Shagaya Renewable Energy Phase III solar independent power producer, according to a Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (KAPP) statement. Also shortlisted are Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power, France’s EDF Renewables, Hong Kong-based Jinko Power, and China’s Tianjin Zhonghuan New Energy.

Project details: Located about 100 km west of Kuwait City in Jahra Governorate, the project will operate under a 30-year power purchase agreement with the Electricity, Water, and Renewable Energy Ministry, TradeArabia reports. The top bidder will design, finance, build, operate, and maintain the plant, which will feed power into Kuwait’s national grid as part of the country’s wider renewables drive.

ADVISORS- KAPP has appointed EY as financial advisor, DLA Piper as counsel, and DNV as technical consultant.

#7- Mubadala involved in Janus Henderson USD 125 mn GCC credit fund: British-American global asset management group Janus Henderson rolled out a USD 125 mn shariah-compliant credit fund focused on the GCC, CEO Ali Dibaj told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 14:08). Launched in partnership with Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala and the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, the fund will lend to and invest in SMEs in the region.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- AgraME will take place today and tomorrow at the Dubai World Center. The event brings together regional and international agribusiness players to explore innovations in sustainable agriculture, crop production, aquaculture, and food security solutions, with a focus on advancing agritech and climate-smart farming practices across the MENA region.

#2- TheForex Expo is also happening today and tomorrow at the Dubai World Trade Center. The two-day event gathers global forex brokers, investors, and fintech companies for panels and discussions on currency markets, AI-driven trading systems, and digital asset integration.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

QuantumMaritime Conference will take place on Wednesday and Thursday in Mussafah, Abu Dhabi. The conference convenes maritime executives, policymakers, and technology specialists to examine digital transformation in shipping, port automation, and sustainable fleet management, with sessions dedicated to decarbonization, cybersecurity, and AI-led operational efficiency in maritime logistics.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Gold and BTC hit fresh highs to start the week as investors flock to safe haven assets amid a government shutdown that is now entering its sixth day. Gold rose to USD 3,920.63 an ounce, before paring some gains, while BTC reached USD 125,689 for the first time early yesterday. BTC’s rise also comes during a month that has historically been a strong month for digital assets’ performance — earning it the nickname “Uptober.”

Gold’s rise is featured on Bloomberg and Financial Times’ front pages, while BTC’s new record got attention from Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC.

ALSO- Egypt is set to host talks between Israel and Hamas today to discuss the US President Donald Trump-proposed ceasefire agreement. The two sides will discuss the conditions for a ceasefire in Gaza and the details of the hostage exchange. Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are already in Cairo to finalize details of the hostage release and discuss the broader peace framework.

Trump is “positive” that the first phase of negotiations should be completed this week, he said in a social media post, while US Secretary of State Marc Rubio said we are closer than we have been “in a very long time” in an interview with Fox News Sunday, though the hostage release and prisoner exchange could be the easiest part of negotiations. The tougher parts? Discussions around rebuilding governing Gaza, he told ABC. (Bloomberg | Reuters | FT)

This comes after Hamas responded to Trump’s proposal over the weekend, with the foreign ministers of the UAE, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt welcoming Hamas’ response in a joint statement and calling for an immediate launch of negotiations.

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OIL WATCH-

Opec+ members will add a total of 137k bbl / d to production again next month, according to a press release. The group approved the same additional number of barrels for October as part of the group’s gradual unwinding of its 1.65 mn bbl / d voluntary cuts. The next meeting is scheduled for 2 November.

Opinions diverged among the bloc’s two biggest producers for this month’s hike. Russia reportedly pushed to maintain the same small hike as in October, citing both market stability and its limited ability to raise supply under Western sanctions, Reuters reports, citing two sources. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, favored a faster pace of restoration — with proposals ranging from double to quadruple the final figure — as the Kingdom seeks to reclaim market share, Reuters said, citing sources before the meeting.

Only around 60% of the 2.2 mn bbl / d tranche planned for restoration between May and September has materialized, highlighting the limited spare capacity within the cartel, Bloomberg reports.. The shortfall reflects both ongoing compensation for previous overproduction by some members and the possibility that others are already nearing their maximum output.

REMEMBER- Unsold Middle Eastern crude from the last trading cycle is stoking concerns that a long-anticipated global oil surplus may be starting to take shape. A better read of balances will emerge once Saudi and other Gulf suppliers issue November allocations to long-term contract buyers soon.

Non-oil private sector growth improves by the most in seven months

The UAE's non-oil private sector saw its largest expansion in seven months in September, marking a solid improvement in activity, boosted by new business intakes. The country’s seasonally adjusted S&P Global PMI (pdf) rose to 54.2 in September, up from 53.3 a month earlier.

September’s reading lands just below the survey long-run average, suggesting a good recovery from July’s plunge.

New orders accelerated at their highest level since February, as demand recorded a strong rebound from August’s four-year low, lifted by elevated client engagement and new projects. The sub-index for new orders surged to 57.2 in September, up from 53.1 a month earlier, according to Reuters. "Over 30% of surveyed firms reported an increase in new order intakes during the month, which drove a sharp improvement in sales growth from its over four-year low in August,” S&P Global Senior Economist David Owen wrote in the report.

The improved conditions helped boost output, with businesses increasing purchasing after cutting it for the first time in over four years in August.

Input costs rose significantly in September, mirroring a broader trend throughout the third quarter. This increase was driven by higher purchase prices, although the impact was somewhat mitigated by an easing salary inflation.

In turn, output inflation rose at a softer rate as businesses were reluctant to increase their selling prices amid competition concerns. “Competitive pressures were again noted as a key issue, with several panellists linking this to caution around purchasing and pricing decisions,” Owed said.

Employment inched up modestly, though at the fastest pace since May, helping ease backlog growth. “Companies continued to accumulate work-in-hand at a solid pace, but the uplift was the second-weakest in 20 months,” the report read.

Business sentiment remains positive: Non-oil firms' outlook for the year-ahead remained strong in September, but their optimism was marginally lower than August's 10-month high. “Around 15% of respondents held a positive view about future output, while less than 1% were downbeat about their prospects,” the note said.

Things could turn towards moderation through the rest of the year: Looking ahead, non-oil sector activity across much of the Gulf is forecast to moderate, Capital Economics’ James Swanston noted in a recent research note seen by EnterpriseAM last month. “Low oil prices will more than offset rising output volumes and, in turn, export receipts will be weaker this year than last,” Swanston wrote, adding that “current account and budget balances will deteriorate, prompting officials to make fiscal policy less supportive.”

OVER IN DUBAI-

Dubai also had another good month: The emirate’s non-oil private sector recorded another firm improvement in September, with its headline PMI inching up to 54.2 during the month, up from 53.6 in August, signalling a robust expansion amid a significant rise in new work levels and an increase in sales, output, and hiring.

Input costs accelerated in September, as inflation hit a five-month high. However, firms slashed their selling prices for the first time since last November due to elevated competition.

Job creation hit its fastest rate in 12 months during September, although the increase was marginal. Businesses also were more optimistic about the sector’s performance in the future, compared with the end of 2Q 2025.

ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION-

In Saudi Arabia, non-oil business activity saw a robust improvement, with the seasonally adjusted figure coming in at 57.8 in September, up from 56.4 a month earlier (pdf) ;
Kuwait’s non-oil private sector saw a softened expansion in business conditions, with the headline PMI dropping to 52.2 in September, from 53.0 in August (pdf) ;
Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity (pdf) deepened its contraction in September, falling to 48.8, from 49.2 a month earlier.

IMF upgrades UAE’s growth forecast to 4.8%, citing oil rebound and non-oil strength + Moody’s affirms UAE, Abu Dhabi’s Aa2 ratings

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects the UAE’s economy to grow 4.8% in 2025, up from its 4% forecast in April, placing the UAE among the region’s fastest-growing economies this year, according to its latest mission statement. The upgrade reflects a recovery in hydrocarbon activity thanks to higher oil output as Opec+ production ramps up, and continued momentum across non-oil sectors including tourism, construction, and financial services.

The Fund kept its 2026 growth forecast unchanged at 5%, similarly supported by both higher hydrocarbon output, “robust non-hydrocarbon growth,” and large-scale infrastructure projects.

Inflation easing, buffers intact: Inflation is now expected to come in at 1.6% this year, down from the Fund’s earlier 2.1% estimate, before stabilizing around 2% over the medium term. Real estate costs are once again set to be the main cause of price pressures, while tradables stay subdued. The Fund said risks to the outlook are “broadly balanced,” underpinned by the UAE’s sustained economic diversification agenda and large sovereign buffers.

Fiscal and external surpluses are expected to stay strong, “providing ample buffers […] to respond to adverse shocks.” The non-hydrocarbon primary deficit is narrowing faster than anticipated, supported by the rollout of the corporate tax and other indirect levies. The IMF again called for greater coordination between federal and emirate-level budgets to enhance policy consistency.

The banking sector remains “strong and sound,” backed by double-digit deposit growth, improving asset quality, and conservative lending practices. The Fund cited new safeguards including the countercyclical capital buffer and the Financial Stability Council, and progress on the Digital AED, stablecoin regulations, and capital-market reforms as signs of steady modernization amid prudent risk management. Banks’ reduced exposure to the real estate sector was flagged as positive, however the IMF also cited risks associated with real estate tokenization projects.

ICYMI- How this stacks up: The IMF’s new projection brings its outlook closer to that of other institutions. The CBUAE expects GDP to grow 4.9% in 2025, while the ICAEW forecasts growth of 5.1%, supported by a 4.7% non-oil expansion. Standard Chartered also sees 5% growth, compared to Fitch Solutions’ BMI at 4.3%.

IN OTHER ECONOMY NEWS-

Moody’s maintained the UAE and Abu Dhabi’s sovereign ratings at Aa2 with a stable outlook, citing strong state institutions, high per capita income, and robust oil reserves with 70 years worth of supply, Al Khaleej reports. The agency said these fundamentals underpin the economy’s resilience and support continued diversification away from hydrocarbons.

Fiscal strength: Moody’s highlighted the UAE’s solid public finances as a key driver of credit stability. Federal debt remains among the lowest globally at around 3% of GDP in 2024, rising modestly to 3.5% by 2027 amid bond and sukuk issuances to develop the local debt market. Abu Dhabi’s fiscal surplus stood at 7% of GDP last year, supported by high oil revenues and large financial assets that continue to anchor sovereign strength.

Economic outlook: The agency expects the non-oil sector to grow 4-5% between 2025 and 2026, supported by projects such as the Etihad Rail network — set to link the UAE with other GCC states — and the unified Gulf visa launching in 2026, which should bolster tourism and investment flows.

UAE markets ease in September as Saudi rally powers GCC’s strongest monthly gains in nearly two years

UAE equities slipped in September, bucking the trend of strong regional gains, with the FTSE ADX Index falling 0.8% and the DFM General Index dropping 3.7%, according to Kamco Invest’s GCC Markets Monthly Report (pdf). Both bourses remain positive YTD; the ADX is up 6.3%, while the DFM is up 13.2%, supported by resilient trading activity and sustained real estate activity.

Seven of ten sectors on the ADX ended the month lower, led by consumer staples (-5.8%), industrials (-5.0%), and real estate (-2.1%), while utilities (+4.8%), telecoms (+4.0%), and energy (+3.3%) limited losses. GFH (+22.9%), Union Ins. (+15%), and Adnoc Gas (+6.3%) were top gainers. ARAM Group (-33.2%) and E7 (-15.2%) led decliners. Trading value rose 14.3% m-o-m to AED 24 bn, even as volumes fell 1.5% to 5.1 bn shares.

The DFM General Index saw its second consecutive monthly decline, as real estate (-8.3%) and financials (-2.5%) dragged performance. Emirates NBD (-3.8%), CBD (-2.4%), and Emaar (-8.3%) led losses, while Gulf Navigation (+25.3%), GFH (+20.4%), and National Industries (+10.5%) posted gains. Trading value increased 9.6% to AED 13.2 bn, while volume dropped 20.9% to 3.8 bn shares.

ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION-

Saudi stocks led regional gains in September, with the Tadawul All Share Index up 7.5%, its biggest rise in 21 months, after the CMA moved to scrap the 49% foreign ownership cap. Kuwait climbed 3.5% on strength in healthcare and real estate; Oman rose 3.0% to an eight-year high as S&P reaffirmed its BBB- rating with a stable outlook, marking its third consecutive monthly gain; and Bahrain added 1.0% with trading value up 71.5%. Qatar slipped 1.5%, pressured by banks and transport.

Dubai tightens regulations around engineering consultancies

Dubai Ruler Mohammed bin Rashid has tightened oversight and regulations around engineering consultancy offices, prohibiting unlicensed firms from providing consultancy services and classifying them into new categories to clarify their scope, according to a Dubai Media Office statement. The law applies to all engineering fields, including civil, architectural, mechanical, electrical, and petroleum.

Engineering consultancies will now be classified more clearly either as local companies set up in the emirate, branches of UAE-based offices, branches of foreign offices, or joint ventures formed between local and foreign offices.

A new unified electronic system — linked to the Invest in Dubai platform — will manage registration, classification, and professional certification. A permanent Committee for the Regulation and Development of Engineering Consultancy Activities, chaired by a Dubai Municipality representative, will supervise implementation. Violators face fines of up to AED 100k, with repeat offences subject to suspension or license cancellation.

Compliance timeline: Existing consultancies must regularize their status within one year of the law taking effect, which comes into force six months after publication in the official gazette.

AD Ports to develop auto hub network with China + More EV chargers coming our way

LOGISTICS-

#1- AD Ports taps China’s Yantai to streamline vehicle trade: Abu Dhabi ports operator AD Ports Group plans to develop green automotive business parks as part of an agreement with China’s state-owned port operator SPG Yantai Port that aims to create a terminal and auto hub network between the UAE and China, according to a statement. The agreement would link AD Ports Group’s automotive terminals and hubs within the UAE with Yantai’s Asia-Pacific Green Automotive Circular Economy Industrial Park.

The rationale: The partnership aims to increase vehicle trade between Asia and the Middle East. The move seeks to establish an efficient supply chain for both new and second-hand vehicles between the two countries.

#2- Masdar + Etihad Rail partner on decarbonized transport solutions: Renewables giant Masdar and UAE’s national railway operator Etihad Rail inked an MoU to develop transport and logistics solutions for the green hydrogen value chain across the UAE, state news agency Wam reports. Under the agreement, the two entities will look into transport feedstocks, hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and sustainable aviation fuel using Etihad Rail’s network.

#3- Hafeet Rail to link Al Ain Airport with Oman: Abu Dhabi Airports signed an agreement with UAE-Oman joint venture Hafeet Rail to establish a corridor connecting Al Ain International Airport with Sohar in Oman for both passenger and cargo traffic, according to a press release.

ICMYI- Hafeet Rail is a USD 2.5 bn joint project between the UAE and Oman aimed at boosting bilateral trade. It is backed by Mubadala, Etihad Rail, and Oman’s Asyad Group, and inked agreements earlier this year on railway maintenance facilities and the cross-border transportation of raw materials.

#4- Etihad Rail, Turkmenistan ink MoU to boost railway cooperation: Etihad Rail signed an MoU with Turkmenistan's Railway Transport Ministry to boost cooperation in railway transport, Wam reports. The MoU, inked on the sidelines of Global Rail last week, will see both sides collaborate on testing new technologies for the rail sector, as well as conducting feasibility studies.

EVs-

#1-Dewa, Parkin to expand EV charging network: Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) signed a strategic contract with Dubai’s public parking operator Parkin to upgrade and expand the city’s public EV charging network, according to a Dubai Media Office statement. The first phase will add 100 chargers across residential areas, malls, leisure destinations, and public spaces, with a broader rollout to follow. Dewa also recently partnered with Dubai Taxi Company on ultra-fast charging stations.

ICYMI- The move comes amid a wider EV charging drive, with Dewa and Dubai Taxi recently inking an agreement to install 208 ultra-fast charging points under Dewa’s EV Green Charger program, and Parkin partnering with e&’s charge&go to install 200 ultra-fast DC charging stations set to go live this month. BYD also plans to build hundreds of 1 MW fast chargers in the UAE, while UAEV aims to deploy 10k chargers nationwide by 2030.

#2- Al Sayegh, Triton EV to build electric truck plant in Abu Dhabi: UAE-based conglomerate Al Sayegh Group signed an agreement with US manufacturer Triton EV to establish an electric truck plant in Abu Dhabi, according to an Abu Dhabi Chamber statement. The facility will act as a regional hub for the GCC and African markets and support Abu Dhabi’s push into sustainable mobility and advanced manufacturing.

M&A-

ADX-listed Eshraq Investments has signed a conditional agreement to acquire a special purpose vehicle by terminal operator TIL Group, Shine SPV 1 Limited, marking a move to diversify its portfolio into the maritime and industrial sectors, it said in a statement (pdf). The transaction remains subject to regulatory and third-party approvals. Shine’s subsidiaries are engaged in offshore support vessel operations, shipbuilding and maintenance, and crane operations across the UAE.

TRADE-

DP World + PayPal partner on cross-border payments: Dubai-based port operator DP World signed an MoU with global payments platform PayPal to roll out a digital payments initiative that will streamline and accelerate international trade transactions, according to a statement. The platform will enable faster cross-border settlements — in minutes rather than up to a week — for global merchants, shippers, and exporters.

REMEMBER- PayPal plans to invest USD 100 mn across the Middle East and Africa, targeting fintech, e-commerce, and logistics ventures in high-growth markets. The firm opened its first regional hub in Dubai in April to expand cross-border payment capabilities.

PAYMENTS-

Emirates NBD Securities opens trading across all GCC markets: Emirates NBD’s brokerage arm, Emirates NBD Securities, is allowing investors direct access to trade across all major GCC financial markets through one account, according to a press release. Trading services will now also cover Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain — adding to its existing access to the DFM, ADX, and Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul.

AI hype intensifies — but signs of a bubble burst are alarming

The AI hype is pushing the US stock market to record highs, though risks of rapid selloff are increasing, Bloomberg reported, citing Goldman Sachs Group’s trading desk. The trend, driven by a strong fear of missing out (FOMO), is at its highest levels since December 2024, causing investors to overlook risks like uncertainties in valuations, trade market, and the slowing labor market.

AI gains on optimism: Some 40% of clients surveyed expect the S&P 500 Index to outpace global peers in October, putting the bullish sentiment at its highest level since December 2024. The heavy-tech index closed on a record high 27 times from June to 3 October, primarily due to AI bullishness, according to Bloomberg’s data.

Going strong: Goldman Sachs clients indicated they plan to double down on their investments in the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft. Over 50% of people surveyed are eyeing AI infrastructure stocks, with the majority expecting momentum to outplay the S&P 500 by year-end.

BUT- Is the AI bubble about to burst? We’re seeing more signs of peak bubble status, including massive capital expenditure by major tech companies and US stock market concentration, Ian Harnett says in the Financial Times. Staggering stock prices, as well as companies sealing agreements with each other and purchasing one another’s products, are also among signs of a bubble burst, Harnett argued.

Others concur: “While almost all indicators point up, this setup also increases the probability of rapid unwinds down the road. Buyers beware,” Oscar Ostlund, global head of content strategy, market analytics and data science for Goldman’s digital platform Marquee told Bloomberg.

History repeats itself: The pattern mirrors historical tech revolutions, most notably the TMT (dot-com) bubble of the late 1990s, which also saw a boom in infrastructure spending before it reached its endgame, Harnett added. Tech bubbles tend to burst not because the technology itself fails, but due to external pressures like regulation, competition, or slowing customer demand, he said.

The long-term scene could be more nuanced. A burst, while painful for late-stage investors, is often a necessary part of the innovation cycle, Harnett argues. The “creative destruction” inherent to bubbles ends up giving access to new technologies at lower prices, leading to the technology being embedded in society, he added.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the green this morning. Japan’s Nikkei is leading the gains with a 4.5% rise in early trading, following a record high yesterday after pro-stimulus Sanae Takaichi was picked to head the ruling Liberal Democratic Party — and possibly become Japan’s first female prime minister. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are little changed as the US government shutdown drags on.

ADX	10,073	+0.1% (YTD: +6.9%)
DFM	5,918	+0.0% (YTD: +14.7%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,821	-0.1% (YTD: +15.8%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.0% o/n	3.9% 1 yr
TASI	11,529	+0.3% (YTD: -4.2%)
EGX30	37,211	+0.8% (YTD: +25.1%)
S&P 500	6,716	0.0% (YTD: +14.2%)
FTSE 100	9,491	+0.7% (YTD: +16.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,652	+0.1% (YTD: +15.4%)
Brent crude	USD 65.39	+1.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.32	-3.4%
Gold	USD 3,909	+1.1%
BTC	USD 122,878	+0.4% (YTD: +31.5%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.72	+0.3% (YTD: +6.8%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	150.83	0.0% (YTD: +7.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.65	+0.1% (YTD: -4.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM remained flat on Friday on turnover of AED 338.4 mn. The index is up 14.7% YTD.

In the green: Taaleem Holdings (+7.1%), National International Holding Company (+4.3%) and Amanat Holdings (+2.7%).

In the red: National General Ins. Company (-3.2%), Chimera S&P UAE UCITS ETF — Share Class A — Accumulating (-2.6%) and ENBD REIT (-2.4%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.1% on turnover of AED 812.3 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.1%.

UAE, France hold bilateral talks on economy and tourism

UAE, France discuss deepening economic and tourism ties: Economy and Tourism Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri met with French Economy, Finance, and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty Minister Eric Lombard and Tourism Minister-Delegate Nathalie Delattre in Paris to discuss strengthening the countries’ economic and tourism partnership, state news agency Wam reports.

Talks focused on expanding investment cooperation, opening new business channels, and boosting tourism collaboration — particularly in sustainable transport, digital technologies, and circular economy initiatives. The ministers also discussed joint tourism investments and cooperation in AI, smart infrastructure, and startup ecosystems.

UAE, Argentina discuss expanding economic + investment ties: President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan held a phone call with Argentinian President Javier Milei to review bilateral relations and explore new cooperation avenues across economic, investment, and development sectors, Wam reports.

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

5-7 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Najah Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

6-7 October (Monday-Tuesday): AgraME, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

6-7 October (Monday-Tuesday): The Forex Expo, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

6-8 October (Monday-Wednesday): AccessAbilities Expo, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

7 October (Tuesday): Enterprise Egypt Forum 2025.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Symposium on the System of Radiological Protection, the Ritz-Carlton Abu Dhabi, Grand Canal.

8-9 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Quantum Maritime Conference, Mussafah, Abu Dhabi

9 October (Thursday): Family Office Summit, Park Hyatt, Dubai.

9-11 October (Thursday-Saturday): European Arab Medical Congress (EAMC 2025), Abu Dhabi Energy Center, Abu Dhabi.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

12-15 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Expand North Star, Dubai Harbor.

13-17 October (Monday-Thursday): GITEX Global, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

14-16 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Global Future Councils, Dubai.

14 October (Tuesday): Dubai Safari Park, Dubai

15 October (Wednesday): Alec Holding’s shares to begin trading on the DFM.

15-18 October (Wednesday-Saturday): Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.

15-18 October (Wednesday-Saturday): The Future Mobility Expo and Conference, Expo Center Sharjah.

15-18 October (Wednesday-Saturday): Evolve Future Mobility Show, Expo Center Sharjah.

21-22 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): HR Summit and Expo 2025, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): International Family Med. Conference and Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Center.

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual Radiology Meeting (ARM), Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Healthcare Future Summit 2025, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

22 October (Wednesday): Reuters NEXT Gulf Summit, The St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, Abu Dhabi.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Alternative Investment Summit, Jumeirah Emirates Towers, Dubai.

22-24 October (Wednesday-Friday): World Investment Conference, Expo Center Sharjah.

23 October (Thursday): S&P Global’s annual Islamic Finance Conference, DIFC Atrium, Dubai.

27 October (Monday): The UAE Africa Tourism Investment Summit, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

29 October (Wednesday): The Brand Residences Forum, Dubai.

NOVEMBER

1-2 November (Saturday-Sunday): Women's Empowerment Convention (WE Convention), Atlantis The Royal, Dubai.

4-6 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

4-6 November (Tuesday-Thursday): ARABAL International Aluminum Conference, Dubai

4-9 November (Tuesday-Saturday):Dubai Design Week, Dubai.

10-15 November (Monday-Saturday): SASC organizes Abu Dhabi Autonomous Week, Abu Dhabi.

10 November (Monday): SASC organizes The Abu Dhabi Autonomous Summit, Abu Dhabi

11-17 November (Tuesday-Monday): International Council of Museums (ICOM) General Conference, Dubai.

12 November (Wednesday): Dubai Business Forum, Cipriani South Street, New York City.

12-17 November (Wednesday-Monday): RoboCup Asia-Pacific, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 November (Thursday-Saturday): International Financial Markets (ICA) Conference and Exhibition, Conrad Dubai.

15-17 November (Saturday-Monday): Myplant & Garden Middle East Green Expo, Dubai Exhibition Center, Expo City.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

19-20 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Investment and Business Summit, Al Hamra International Exhibition and Convention Center, Ras Al Khaimah

19-23 November (Tuesday-Sunday): Abu Dhabi Art, Manarat Al Saadiyat, Abu Dhabi

24-27 November (Monday-Thursday): Big 5 Global Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

26-27 November (Wednesday-Thursday): DATE (Digital Acceleration & Transformation Expo), Dubai

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

2-5 December (Tuesday-Friday): Sotheby’s Abu Dhabi Collectors’ Week, Abu Dhabi.

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-14 December (Sunday-Sunday): Asian Youth Para Games, APC headquarters, Dubai.

8 December (Monday): DeFi Technologies Insights Global Symposium, Emirates Palace, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): BTC MENA Conference, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Global AI Show 2025, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): The Bridge Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-11 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Al Maryah Island.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

9-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Automechanika Dubai Trade Show, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 December (Saturday-Monday): Mobile Developers Week, Abu Dhabi.

18-23 December (Thursday-Tuesday): Games of the Future, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

29-30 December (Monday-Tuesday): World Sports Summit, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

JANUARY 2026

1 January: Client asset regime changes in Dubai International Financial Center take effect.

9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit, UAE.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai Exhibition Center, Dubai

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

FEBRUARY 2026

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-13 February (Monday-Friday): The World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

MARCH 2026

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

JUNE 2026

15 June-15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY 2026

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

13-15 April ( Monday-Wednesday) : The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.
14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference
Dubai Future Finance Week
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing.
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project.
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing.
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing.
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime between 2027 and 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai.
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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