Good morning, friends, and a very happy FRIDAY to us all. We’re rounding out the week with a relatively busy issue, led by fresh investments from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority in data center developer Vantage Data Centers, as well as Arise IIP — the Dubai-based industrial zones developer — landing its own investment.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Israeli weapons manufacturers have been banned from the Dubai Airshow in November, amid rising Gulf backlash against Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and this weekend’s unprecedented strike on Doha, Bloomberg reports, citing a senior official familiar with the matter. Organizers sent letters to a handful of Israeli companies referring to “shortfalls in professional qualifications,” though the decision to bar Israel had been informally conveyed earlier.

Israel’s Defense Ministry confirmed it received a notification from the show’s organizers, but declined to provide further details, Asharq Business reports. The country’s leading aerospace and aviation manufacturer, Israel Aerospace Industries, referred inquiries to the ministry, while Elbit Systems — another major Israeli defense firm — refused to comment.

Over in Europe, Israel was banned from sending a government delegation to a defense tradeshow in the UK earlier this week after it escalated its military operation in Gaza. However, Israeli firms were still able to attend, sparking protests, The Guardian reports. Several Israeli stands were also closed down earlier this summer at an airshow in Paris, the news outlet reported elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Qatar is holding an emergency Arab-Islamic summit of regional foreign ministers on Sunday and Monday to address Israel’s unprecedented airstrike on its capital, Qatar News Agency reports. The attack, launched on Tuesday on a building in Doha, was claiming to target Hamas’ political leadership and drew sharp international condemnation.

#2- M&A WATCH- Adnoc is set to convert a planned EUR 1.2 bn capital hike at Covestro into a shareholder loan at market rates in a bid to ease EU concerns over its EUR 14.7 bn takeover bid, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. Adnoc is also expected to pledge to keep the German chemical group’s technology and IP in Europe. Talks on possible remedies were reportedly held earlier this month.

REFRESHER- The EU opened the probe in July over fears of UAE state subsidies, including an unlimited state guarantee and the committed capital increase. These concerns echo similar concerns raised last year when UAE’s e& moved to acquire parts of Czech telecoms group PPF. The transaction would be Adnoc’s biggest-ever acquisition and one of the largest Gulf-led takeovers of an EU company.

The fix is in: The shareholder loan would address Brussels’ fear that Adnoc could use state-backed subsidies to tilt competition in its favor, since market-rate lending wouldn’t count as unfair state support. Meanwhile, the pledge to keep Covestro’s tech and IP within Europe is meant to reassure regulators that critical know-how won’t be shifted outside the bloc.

The move marks a shift in tone for the Abu Dhabi state oil giant, which only days ago blasted Brussels for irrelevant and “too broad” information requests tied to the bloc’s subsidy probe.

#3- Opec fund taps banks for first sustainability issuance: The Opec Fund for International Development mandated banks for its first sustainability bond issuance, Zawya reports. The fund — a financial institution made up of Opec member countries — is rated AA+ with a stable outlook by S&P and Fitch, and will list its EUR-dominated five-year senior unsecured notes on the London Stock Exchange Main Market.

The proceeds: Net proceeds will go to the fund’s ordinary capital resources, with an equal amount going to financing and refinancing sustainable loans.

ADVISORS- The fund mandated BofA Securities, Citi, Credit Agricole CIB, and Deutsche Bank as joint leads to manage the transaction. Credit Agricole CIB is also acting as sole sustainability structuring advisor, with Sustainable Fitch providing a second opinion.

#4- Dubai Investments Park to IPO by February: DFM-listed Dubai Investments is preparing to list up to 25% of its Dubai Investments Park Development company unit by February, CEO Khalid Bin Kalban told Bloomberg. The company is currently in talks with banks to arrange the offering, and also weighing private placements or bringing in strategic investors. Proceeds from the transaction will be used to expand existing operations and develop additional parks, he added.

Up for grabs: Dubai Investments Park could be valued at as much as AED 10 bn, the business information service reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter. The park is one of the emirate’s largest mixed-use projects, spans 2.3k hectares and has a 90% occupancy rate.

Also in the IPO pipeline: Other subsidiaries, including Emirates Glass and district cooling firm Emicool, may be listed in the coming years as part of its expansion pipeline. Bin Kalban had previously said Dubai Investments was planning to take one subsidiary public on the DFM every year.

MARKET WATCH-

Orascom Construction made a strong debut on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) yesterday, closing up 26.4% from a listing price of AED 30.15 to close at AED 38.10 on their first day of trading. The company saw nearly 34k shares change hands during its first day on the ADX.

Orascom is the first Egyptian contractor to pursue a dual-list in Abu Dhabi and Cairo, a move that underscores the ADX’s growing pull as a regional liquidity center. For the contractor, the shift away from Nasdaq Dubai opens access to deeper institutional flows, while for other Egyptian corporates it could set a precedent on where to anchor secondary listings.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year to 740k bbl / d, up from 680k previously, according to the agency’s latest monthly oil market report. The agency left its 2026 outlook unchanged at 700k bbl / d.

The agency now expects global crude supply to rise by 2.7 mn bbl / d to 105.8 mn bbl / d this year — compared with a prior forecast of 2.5 mn bbl/d rise — and by 2.1 mn bbl /d to reach 107.9 mn bbl / d next year. Net Opec+ output growth from October will come in at just 40k bbl /d — well below the group’s official 137k bbl / d quota hike — due to capacity constraints among some members.

Opec, meanwhile, kept its forecast unchanged in its September oil market report (pdf). The cartel still expects global oil demand to grow by 1.3 mn bbl / d in 2025 and 1.4 mn bbl / d in 2026, with non-Opec supply rising by 0.8 mn bbl/d and 0.6 mn bbl / d respectively. Demand for Opec+ crude is forecast at 42.5 mn bbl / d in 2025, rising to 43.1 mn bbl / d in 2026.

REMEMBER- Opec+ approved a production hike for an additional 137k bbl / d from October through September 2026, fast-tracking the return of 1.65 mn bbl / d that was previously set to stay offline until end-2026. But most members are already pumping at or near capacity, leaving Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the only producers able to meaningfully increase supply.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The UAE’s Universal Postal Congress is running until next Friday, 19 September at the Dubai World Trade Center. The union’s 192 member countries will meet to set policies and strategy for the coming year, with this year’s congress looking to adopt advanced tech under the theme “Leading the Change, Creating the Future.”

TheInternational Real Estate and Investment Show Abu Dhabi is starting today and will run until Sunday in Abu Dhabi. The conference brings together global developers and investors for insights into investment and market trends in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia Pacific regions.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

SHRM MENA will host its Annual Conference + Expo next Wednesday and Thursday, 17-18 September, at Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai. The two-day gathering will bring together HR leaders and professionals from across the region for panels, workshops, and networking focused on the future of work.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

We have a mixed bag of stories in the international business press this morning, including a breakthrough in OpenAI’s restructuring, and reports that Paramount could be looking to buy Warner Bros.

OpenAI will proceed in its restructuring to become closer to a for-profit company, with an agreement to give the existing OpenAI nonprofit “both control a Public Benefit Corporation” and provide the nonprofit with an equity stake that “would exceed USD 100 bn — making it one of the most well-resourced philanthropic organizations in the world,” OpenAI said in a statement overnight. The restructuring comes along with a non-binding MoU between OpenAI and Microsoft that would clear internal hurdles to OpenAI’s restructuring, the two companies said in a separate joint statement

Paramount Skydance is reportedly preparing an offer to purchase Warner Bros Discovery in a bid that would be backed by the Ellison family, which includes Skydance head David Ellison and his father, b’naire Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison. The bid comes after Skydance bought Paramount Global in a USD 8.4 bn agreement. (Wall Street Journal | Reuters)

Meanwhile, a panel of Brazil Supreme Court justices convicted former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro of planning a coup in 2022 designed to upend the country’s elections and keep him in power. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison (Reuters | New York Times)

ALSO- The assassination of pro-Trump conservative influencer Charlie Kirk is still on the front pages, as US authorities released photos of a “person of interest” in the hunt for the gunman. (Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | New York Times | BBC | CNN)

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Syria Recovery and Investment Forum will take place on Wednesday, 24 September in Abu Dhabi. The forum will host leaders in business, regional investors, policymakers, and advisory experts to develop practical solutions for Syria’s road to recovery and economic revival.

TheAfrican, Middle East, and Islamic Finance Aviation 100 Awards will kick off on Monday, 29 September and run through Wednesday, 1 October in Dubai. The event aims to highlight and reward the most remarkable transactions closed by airlines and aviation manufacturing and leasing firms.

Global Rail Transport Infrastructure Exhibition and Conference will run from Tuesday, 30 September until Thursday, 2 October in Abu Dhabi. The event will be hosted by Etihad Rail and is set to welcome over 200 global speakers and upwards of 20k industry attendees to share innovative solutions and develop partnerships.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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