Good morning, lovely people, and welcome to the final workweek of July. Things have quieted down significantly on the news front as we head into August (the preferred month for annual leave for plenty of you).

THE BIG STORY here at home is news that Dubai-based investment firm Beyond One is in talks to acquire Spanish telecoms giant Telefónica’s Mexican operations. Plus: Union Properties just made major headway in plans to settle its debt this year with a AED 700 mn sale of a project in Motor City. We also have some startup funding news and a few earnings for you to dig your teeth into…

WEATHER- Stay indoors, people: Temperatures continue to rise today, with the mercury in Dubai peaking at 47°C today, with temperatures dropping to 34°C overnight. Abu Dhabi will see a daytime high of 48°C, falling to 35°C after dark.

MORNING MUST-READS-

While we disconnected for the weekend, it was an AI-heavy weekend in the rest of the world.

#1- Donald Trump thinks stealing is just fine, saying as he announced a new, maximalist AI policy framework, “You can't be expected to have a successful AI program when every single article, book, or anything else that you've read or studied, you're supposed to pay for. We appreciate that, but just can't do it — because it's not doable.” Wired has more.

#2- The head of Anthropic holds the Middle East in contempt, but he’d sure like some of our money. “Unfortunately, I think ‘No bad person should ever benefit from our success’ is a pretty difficult principle to run a business on,” CEO Dario Amodei said in a note to staff obtained by Wired. The maker of Claude will open to investment from our part of the world as it looks to double its valuation to USD 150 bn, the Financial Times notes.

#3- The Atlantic is the latest competitor in the “AI may be bad for you” sweepstakes. Its entry reads like something from Tipper Gore’s 1985 campaign against heavy metal, punk, and rap: ChatGPT gave instructions for murder, self-mutilation, and devil worship. “OpenAI’s chatbot also said ‘Hail Satan,’” it adds, in case you didn’t get the point.

#4- Reuters Breakingviews warns that the 1995 IPO of Netscape is “casting a shadow” over the AI boom. The parallels are there. If you want to know how OpenAI could create a market and then lose it, this is your morning must-read.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Enec and US’ Westinghouse explore nuclear collaboration in the US: The Emirates Nuclear Energy Company (Enec) and US-based nuclear power firm Westinghouse Electric signed an MoU to assess collaboration on advanced nuclear energy projects in the US, according to a press release. The two companies will look at new projects and potentially restarting existing ones, as well as operational services and fuel supply chains. The partnership will look specifically at deploying Westinghouse's AP1000 reactor technology, and comes amid a growing refocus on the US’ nuclear energy sector under President Donald Trump.

Enec has been eyeing global expansion: The firm has been in talks to develop projects worldwide and is focused on the US, the Global South, Europe, and the Philippines.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The GCC's nominal GDP reached USD 587.8 bn in 4Q 2024, a 1.5% uptick from the USD 579 bn recorded in 4Q 2023, state news agency Wam reports, citing data from the GCC Statistical Center (GCC-Stat). Non-oil activities accounted for 77.9% of GDP, with oil activities contributing the remaining 22.1%.

By the sector: The manufacturing sector led the charge, representing 12.5% of GDP, followed by the wholesale and retail trade at 9.9%. Construction contributed 8.3% to the total, with public administration and defense accounting for 7.5%, finance and ins. came in at 7%, and 5.7% came from the real estate sector.

#2- Some 395.3 mn people used Dubai’s public transport in 1H 2025, a 9% uptick y-o-y, according to a press release from Dubai’s Roads and Transport Transport Authority. Daily ridership averaged 2.2 mn, up from 2 mn during the same period last year.

The breakdown: 143.9 mn people used the Dubai Metro, representing 36.5% of total passengers, and BurJuman Station recorded the highest traffic with 8.6 mn riders. Public buses carried 95.7 mn passengers, while the Dubai Tram recorded 4.9 mn riders.

PSAs-

UAE + Pakistan implement diplomatic visa waiver agreement: The UAE and Pakistan activated a mutual visa waiver for diplomatic and official Pakistani passport holders, effective as of last Friday, according to a social media post by the country’s Deputy Prime Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar. The waiver applies at all UAE and Pakistani airports. The development comes after the two countries signed a mutual visa exemption agreement last month.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The US and the EU have narrowly averted a trade war after reaching an agreement that will see the bloc face a 15% tariff on exports to the US. The agreement came following months of talks and just a few days before a Friday deadline will see higher tariffs take effect.

There are still points of contention: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the tariffs covered all exports, including automobiles, drugs, and chips, hitting back at Trump’s claim that the agreement did not cover pharma and metals. The US is working on a probe into pharma that could see it implement a global tariff on drugs later. Conventional wisdom is that we’ll see a low tariff imposed this year — and a much higher one next year after firms have regrouped. (Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | Wall Street Journal | New York Times)

[wwtt4] ALSO- It’s going to be a big week on Wall Street and in Washington, DC, with CNBC’s Jim Cramer saying it could set the tone for markets through the rest of the summer. Here’s what to watch out for:

  • The Federal Reserve’s open markets committee meets tomorrow and the day after. It’s widely expected to stay the course and hold rates steady despite continued pressure from Trump. Its concern: tariff-driven inflation;
  • It’s Big Tech week on the earnings front, with Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all expected to begin reporting 2Q results from Wednesday;
  • Friday will see the US publish its latest jobs report and kick into gear higher tariffs for all trading partners with which it has not reached a trade agreement.

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MARKET WATCH-

#1- Opec+ ministerial committee to hold oil policy steady? The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of Opec+ will likely make no changes to the group’s current oil output policy during today’s meeting, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing four people it said are in the know.

Opec was also quick to clarify the JMMC panel has no say in the decision-making process over production levels, but it can monitor and review them, as well as provide its recommendations, the oil group said on X on Friday.

IN CONTEXT- The oil cartel agreed earlier this month to raise production by 548k bbl / d in August, up from its previous monthly output increments of 411k bbl / d for May, June, and July. This comes as the group seeks to accelerate its plan to return around 2.2 mn bbl / d to the market in monthly increments by the end of 2026.

KEEP AN EYE OUT- Opec+ will meet on 3 August to decide on production levels for September. The return of supply could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions.

#2- ALSO- Dubai crude trading is rising to its highest levels this summer, as Middle Eastern crude becomes a fallback in global energy markets amid tightening supplies of Russian diesel and escalating geopolitical sanctions, Asharq Business reports. Refiners across Asia and Europe are increasingly turning to Arabian grades like Murban, which produce higher yields of industrial diesel and meet fuel demands.

Trading volumes of Murban futures have increased, with nearly 33k lots exchanged on Thursday—the highest in three weeks. Meanwhile, the spread between Dubai and Brent crudes, measured by the Exchange Futures Swap (EFS), narrowed about USD 0.76 a barrel on Thursday, the smallest since early May.

In action: India’s Reliance Industries purchased one mn barrels of Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude, Bloomberg reports. The transaction, made through a series of futures contracts, is expected to be loaded in September, with Reliance currently seeking a counterparty to convert the contracts into physical deliveries using the Exchange of Futures for Physical instrument. This purchase follows an earlier Murban acquisition on the spot market, made shortly after the European Union imposed fresh sanctions on Russian crude supplies.

The outlook: As Indian refiners play a pivotal role in processing Russian oil and re-exporting fuels to Europe, traders are watching to see if Middle Eastern crude like Murban will increasingly replace sanctioned Russian grades like Urals. Murban contracts typically see less activity than Brent or West Texas Intermediate, but the recent uptick marks growing market interest in alternative crude sources as geopolitical tensions shift procurement patterns across Asia and Europe.

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