Good morning, friends. Israel struck Iran overnight in what looks to be a major escalation of tensions in the region, sending jitters through markets. We have the details in the Big Story Abroad, below.

THE BIG STORY here at home: We have fresh details on government spending and revenues in 2024, as well as three oil production concessions awarded to Adnoc and other international partners. Plus: Plenty of investment news from Dubai-based Stake, Shaiva Group, and Taranis Capital. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- Don't forget to hydrate: Dubai will be seeing an afternoon high of 45°C today, and an overnight low of 31°C. In Abu Dhabi, the mercury will peak at 37°C, though it will feel like 41°C, before cooling to an overnight low of 30°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Sidara’s Wood takeover deadline pushed again: The deadline for Dubai-based Sidara to submit a takeover bid for UK-listed engineering firm Wood Group has been extended again to 30 June, according to a statement. The extension allows time to resolve outstanding pre-conditions tied to debt restructuring and liquidity arrangements, Wood said. The delay also gives Wood time to finalize its overdue 2024 financial audit, which prompted a temporary suspension of its shares on the London Stock Exchange in April.

REMEMBER- Wood Group has been the subject of an on-again, off-again takeover interest from Sidara for over a year. The most recent proposal — a GBP 0.35 per share allcash offer valued at USD 318.4 mn — includes a USD 450 mn debt package and has been described by Wood’s board as a “better option” for shareholders. Previous takeover proposals had valued Wood at GBP 1.59 bn, though valuations subsequently fell following financial governance issues.

#2- The US Senate rejected resolutions that would have blocked over USD 3 bn in arms sales to the UAE and Qatar, with votes split largely along party lines, Reuters reports. The agreements include a USD 1.6 bn package to the UAE covering helicopters and other equipment, and a USD 1.9 bn sale of armed drones to Qatar. Opponents cited concerns over Gulf-linked gifts and Emirati links to Trump-affiliated crypto ventures (read: here and here), while those voting against the resolutions described both countries as reliable US security partners.

REFRESHER- Announced in May, the UAE agreement includes six CH-47F Chinook helicopters and F-16 parts for use in counterterrorism, disaster relief, and humanitarian operations. The sale follows the UAE’s designation last year as a major defense partner of the US — a status previously granted only to India.

… Gulf-linked gifts? During his Gulf visit, the Trump administration formally accepted a USD 400 mn Boeing 747 jet from Qatar, gifted for use as a future Air Force One aircraft.

#3- Bybit and Bitget to relocate Singapore team to Dubai amid regulatory crackdown: Singapore-based crypto exchanges like Bitget and Bybit are considering relocating employees to Dubai after Singapore's Monetary Authority (MAS) ordered crypto firms offering offshore services to cease operations by 30 June, Bloomberg reports citing sources familiar with the matter. Neither of the exchanges hold local licenses in Singapore, and both already operate in Dubai.

#4- Circle eyes UAE remittance market: Stablecoin issuer Circle is in early talks with UAE-based remittance firms to integrate its USDC stablecoin into local money transfer networks, company president Heath Tarbert told Arabian Gulf Business Insight. The move follows Circle’s IPO on the New York Stock Exchange, which valued the firm at USD 21 bn, and is part of a broader push to expand in high-volume remittance corridors.

The pitch: Circle says USDC, which has a USD 60 bn market capitalization, could dramatically reduce settlement times and costs — as much as “30 to 100x” cheaper than traditional methods — by replacing bank-led clearing with near-instant blockchain transfers.

Why the UAE? The UAE ranks among the busiest global remittance hubs, with USD 44 bn sent home annually by the country’s 9 mn expatriates, and USDC already accounts for over half of crypto transactions in the UAE. Circle secured in-principle approval to operate as a money-services provider in ADGM in April, after receiving Dubai International Financial Center recognition for USDC and EURC as accepted digital tokens earlier in February.

#5- GCC banks with Turkish subsidiaries are expected to benefit from improved operating conditions in Turkey, with easing inflation projected to curb the subsidiaries’ net monetary losses in 2025-2026, Fitch Ratings wrote in a note on its website. GCC banks have sustained net monetary losses since 2022, reporting more than USD 7 bn in losses — equivalent to about 5% of aggregated equity by the end of 2024, as cumulative Turkish inflation exceeded 100% over the previous three years.

Turkish subsidiaries of GCC banks saw net monetary losses of USD 2.5 bn in 2024, down slightly from net losses of USD 2.7 bn in 2023, as inflation averaged 60% over the last year.

Despite the improved operating conditions, GCC banks’ Turkish exposures are seen as a credit-negative, with Fitch deducting one notch from the “domestic operating environment scores for the Viability Ratings (VRs) of Burgan Bank, Emirates NBD, QNB and KFH to reflect exposures to weaker international markets,” the note reads.

SHUTTING DOWN THE RUMOR MILL- Kuwait’s GFH quashes market chatter of potential Shuaa tie-up: Kuwait-listed Bahraini investment bank GFH Financial Group shut down rumours about a potential merger with Dubai-based investment platform Shuaa Capital, according to a bourse disclosure (pdf). The firm said the pair were not engaged in any talks, negotiations or agreements on the matter, and that the information was “incorrect.” The statement came out following unverified chatter online, which had been circulating on social media for days.

Based on somewhat of a true story: The two firms briefly explored a merger back in 2017, but those talks were dropped, after failing to both agree on acquisition terms and secure initial regulatory approvals, and have not since reopened.

PSA-

Fancy visiting Armenia this summer? The country will implement no-visa travel for citizens and residents of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries effective 1 July, according to a press release. The policy allows stays of up to 90 days within any 180-day period for tourism, leisure, or business purposes.

The details: The visa waiver applies to passport holders from all six GCC states (the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman) and extends to foreign residents holding valid GCC residency permits with at least six months' validity. Armenia previously introduced individual visa exemptions for UAE in 2017, as well as for other GCC countries.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The China Home Life Expo is on its final day at the Dubai World Trade Center. The event will showcase a wide range of Chinese consumer products including building materials, textiles, consumer materials, and will connect manufacturers and buyers from across the region.

#2- The International Appliances and Electronics Show is also wrapping up today at the Dubai World Trade Center. The exhibition showcases the latest advancements in home appliances and consumer electronics, featuring product launches, technology showcases, and networking chances.

#3- Economy Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri is currently leading a UAE delegation of over 50 representatives from government institutions, businesses, and startups to tech conference and exhibition Viva Technology in Paris that runs until Saturday. The event will bring together 3.2k investors and 13.5k startups.

REMEMBER- The UAE is heavily involved in France’s tech sector. Abu Dhabi’s MGX and Nvidia have partnered with French AI leaders to build Europe’s largest AI data center campus near Paris, after the Emirates signaled plans to invest USD 30-50 bn in French AI and data infrastructure.

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

UAE's president to attend G7 summit: President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will be attending the G7 summit due to be held in Canada from Sunday, 15 June until Tuesday, after receiving an invitation from Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, state news agency Wam reports. The summit is set to discuss international peace and security, the digital transition, and global economic growth.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

THIS JUST IN- Israel attacked Tehran just a few hours ago in a major escalation of regional tensions, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said targeted the country’s nuclear and military sites. This comes days before another planned round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US was set to take place in Oman, after the US sent Iran a proposal that involves restrictions on its nuclear program, including on enriching uranium. The head of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, General Hossein Salami, along with other officials and nuclear scientists, are suspected to have been killed in the attack, according to Iranian state TV.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a special state of emergency and said Israel’s strike was “preemptive” and that he expects retaliation from Iran. Netanyahu said the operation “will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.” The US said it was not involved in the attack.

Market reax: Oil futures soared 10% on the news, with Brent Crude futures climbing to USD 76.48 a barrel.

The story is grabbing headlines everywhere: Bloomberg | CNBC | Reuters | Financial Times | AP

Elsewhere, an Air India crash in Ahmedabad, India killed over 240 passengers after crashing before heading on its way to London. The Boeing 787 crash — which is the deadliest aviation crash in more than a decade — left only one known survivor. Boeing’s shares fell 4.8% yesterday. (Bloomberg | Reuters | FT | AP |

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OIL WATCH-

Fitch Ratings revised its 2025 outlook for the global oil and gas sector to deteriorating from neutral, according to a statement. The agency pointed to reduced economic prospects following US tariffs, a quicker-than-expected rollback of Opec+ voluntary cuts, and accelerating output from non-Opec+ producers as key reasons for the downgrade.

The ratings agency slashed its oil price assumption for 2025 to USD 65/bbl, down from USD 70 in April, though it left its medium-term and mid-cycle price forecasts unchanged.

Geopolitical risk remains a wild card for oil markets, Fitch said. The agency flagged the potential risk of price spikes from further sanctions targeting Russia, Iran, or Venezuela, as well as the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Fitch now expects global oil demand to grow by 800k bbl/d in 2025, down from earlier projections of over 1 mn bbl/d. Opec+’s spare capacity stood at 5.7 mn bbl/d as of May, highlighting that the market will remain oversupplied this year due to faster supply growth, the agency added.

On the natgas front: Fitch expects prices to remain supportive for producers, helping offset some of the revenue pressure from lower oil prices. US oil producers are slashing capex and output plans in response to price signals, with natural gas-focused upstream players set to benefit as lower oil output will reduce associated gas production, potentially supporting natural gas prices.

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