Cautious optimism reigns supreme on the first day of EFG Hermes One on One

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: EFG Hermes One on One is on its second day + Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed is in India

Good morning from Dubai, friends, where we have another packed issue for you informed by more than a dozen conversations with global fund and portfolio managers, analysts, and top company execs attending the EFG Hermes One on One.

The Trump administration’s trade turmoil has made for an interesting One on One so far, but the overall feeling here is one of “cautious optimism” — at least when it comes to the impact on the UAE economy. What it all means for financial markets is a more nuanced (and much less settled) question.

The big takeaways here for regional markets based on our conversations yesterday and last night:

#1- Nobody is talking about a disaster scenario for regional IPO and M&A markets. The prevailing mood right now is “let’s wait and see where this settles.” The (so-far) worst case anyone wanted to put on the table: Some IPOs may slip to the fall window from spring. M&As, meanwhile, seem even less likely to be scuppered by the market’s ongoing temper tantrum.

#2- Everyone feels pretty good about where the UAE sits right now. Post-covid reforms including a more relaxed visa regime, a big expansion of major global financial services players setting up shop in the UAE (particularly in Abu Dhabi), the opening of new tourist markets, big inflows of HNWI individuals, and a surge in entrepreneurism will all provide shock absorbers for the economy. Nobody is talking about a repeat of 2008. Could we see an uptick in inflation? Maybe.

#3- 10% is the “new zero” when it comes to trade, and all of us in the Mideast (here in the Emirates, but also in Saudi Arabia and Egypt) could benefit from that. Egypt probably gets the biggest bump, putting it in a position to benefit from inward investment in manufacturing and services if (a) policymakers stay the course with a floating FX rate and (b) there’s no return to the status quo ante bellum on trade in the next 6-12 months.

#4- Markets have a way of quickly equilibrating. One of the smartest investment bankers we know made the point yesterday that from the dotcom meltdown and the global financial crisis, to covid-19 and fallout from the war in Ukraine, financial markets adapt to crises in a fraction of the time they took in the 1970s, 1980s, or even 1990s. No promises, of course, but … is there any reason to think that this time will be different? (Other than, of course, the lack of policy clarity emanating from DC…)

We explore all of this and more in this morning’s news well, below, with coverage of the EFG Hermes One on One Live Poll as well as remarks on stage from senior Dubai officials. We’ll have more for you throughout the week — the One on One wraps on Thursday.

Companies from our part of the world are the stars of the show. Among the top UAE firms attending:

ADNOC Group (and its listed units)
Aldar Properties
Alef Education
Alpha Dhabi
Amanat
e&
Emaar Properties
FAB
Fertiglobe
Lulu
Lunate
Parkin
Pure Health
RAK Bank
Taaleem
Talabat

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Tariffs — and the global market turmoil they have sparked — are still the dominant theme across global business pages, though we also have news of impending US-Iran nuclear talks getting attention.

Markets continued to reel yesterday from the uncertainty around tariffs, with the S&P 500 entering the bear market briefly as it fell 20% from its peak — though stocks later saw a seven-minute rally as rumors on social media of a potential 90-day pause on tariffs circulated. The rally helped recover USD 2.5 tn in equity value, though that was later erased during the day. The story is everywhere in the global business press: CNBC | Reuters | WSJ

Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on China after the country slapped a 34% retaliatory tariff on American imports, vowing to hike tariffs if they don’t backtrack on their countertariff by tomorrow midnight. The additional levy would bring total tariffs on Chinese imports to 120%. He also confirmed there would be no pause on tariffs, but said he would be open to negotiations with some countries. (FT | Bloomberg | Reuters)

The European Commission is also considering a retaliatory tariff of 25% on a range of US goods in response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium, Reuters reports, citing a document it had seen.

MEANWHILE- Trump said the US and Iran will begin direct talks on Iran’s nuclear program on Saturday, saying if they don’t go well, Iran could be in “grave danger.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that indirect high-level talks would be held in Oman in an X post. (Reuters | Bloomberg)

THE BIG STORY AT HOME today, other than the takeaways from investors at the conference, is non-oil foreign trade surpassing AED 2.8 tn in 2024, and an 8.3% growth in outstanding issuances of sukuk and bonds in 1Q 2025.

☀️WEATHER- It’s another warm day today, with the mercury peaking at 36°C in Dubai, before cooling to 24°C overnight, according to our favorite weather app. Over in Abu Dhabi, temperatures will reach 30°C before cooling to 24°C overnight.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed is in India today for an official visit to strengthen bilateral ties and expand cooperation across strategic sectors, state news agency Wam reports. He is leading a high-level delegation holding talks with senior Indian officials on trade, aviation, innovation, AI, and investment. The delegation includes Economy Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, AI Minister Omar Al Olama, and other senior government and economic leaders.

#2- The Geo-Spatial Week is underway in Dubai at the Mohammed bin Rashid Space Center, kicking off earlier this week and running until 11 April. The week-long event will welcome experts in photogrammetry, remote sensing, and spatial sciences.

#3- The AIM Congress 2025 kicked off yesterday and runs through to Wednesday at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The event will bring together senior executives, government officials, and global investors to foster investment collaboration to drive global economic development. Attendees can expect forums, panel discussions, workshops, and a startup competition, Wam reports.

#4- Middle East Energy is on its second day and run through to Wednesday at the Dubai World Trade Center. The exhibition and conference brings together industry leaders, and energy professionals to discuss the energy transition, sustainability practices, innovations in power generation, renewable energy, and energy efficiency.

#5- The World Local Production Forum is also on its second day and runs until Wednesday at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The World Health Organization-backed event will bring together global leaders to discuss localized, sustainable, and diversified medicine production, and strategies to enhance access to quality assured health products.

#6- The Fujairah Bunkering and Fuel Oil Forum (FUJCON 2025) is on its second day and runs through Wednesday at DoubleTree by Hilton Fujairah. Organized by S&P Global Commodity Insights, in collaboration with the Fujairah government, the Port of Fujairah, and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, the event will bring together energy leaders to discuss geopolitical and decarbonization impacts on shipping and bunkering, fuel quality, market trends, and technological advancements.

#7- AWS GenAI Loft Dubai 2025 is on its second day and runs through to Friday, 11 April at Dubai International Financial Centre’s (DIFC) Innovation One building. The five-day event will see industry startups, business leaders, investors, developers, and AI enthusiasts attend workshops and lectures on generative AI technologies and their practical applications across industries.

#8- The two-day World Crisis and Emergency Management Summit kicks off today in Abu Dhabi, state news agency Wam reports. Under the theme Together Towards Building Global Resilience, the event will bring together global leaders to discuss improving international cooperation in crisis management, emergency planning, and risk prediction. The event will also feature two exhibitions — Crisis Management Technologies and Generation Readiness — to showcase new sector-specific technological tools.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright will visit the UAE tomorrow as part of a two-week Middle East tour that will also take him to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Reuters reports, citing a source close to the matter. Wright is set to visit Al Barakah Nuclear Power Plant during his visit, as well as discuss global supply of oil and the UAE’s investments in the US, according to the source.

REMEMBER- The UAE last month pledged a 10-year USD 1.4 tn investment framework in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing, in the US.

DATA POINTS-

#1- UAE the world leader in fibre-to-home network coverage at 99.5%: The UAE has set a new global benchmark in fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) network coverage, reaching 99.5%, according to the FTTH Council Europe’s 2024 report (pdf). South Korea took the second spot with 96.6%, while China recorded 93.6% coverage.

Leading the charge is e& UAE, which now provides high-speed fibre connectivity to 2.88 mn homes via a 14.5 mn km fibre-optic infrastructure, helping the Emirates maintain its top global ranking since 2016, Wam reports.

#2- Hotels in the UAE generated AED 45 bn in revenues, up 3% y-o-y, state news agency Wam reports, citing Economy Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri. Some 30.8 mn hotel guests visited the Emirates, up 9.5% y-o-y. This amounts to some 77% of the National Tourism Strategy’s target of attracting 40 mn guests annually by 2031.

Sixteen new openings brought the number of hotels to 1.3k, while the total number of hotel rooms grew 3% to reach 217k. Occupancy rates averaged 78%, placing the UAE among the top-performing markets globally and regionally.

#2- 2024 saw a 20.7% increase y-o-y in Indian business licenses operating in the Emirates, bringing the total to 245k, state news agency Wam reports. So far this year, 10.7k new licenses were issued to Indian firms in 1Q 2025.

#3- The Central Bank of the UAE issued AED 124.7 mn in financial penalties against 55 entities in 2024, according to its annual report (pdf). These penalties included fines of AED 85.1 mn on 21 exchange houses, AED 35.9 mn on 11 banks, and AED 3.3 mn on 12 ins. Firms — and came in response to breaches of Central Bank law, ins. law, cabinet resolutions, standards, regulations, and guidance notices related to various areas, including Emiratization requirements.

PSA-

New jobs under wage protection system: The Human Resources and Emiratization Ministry (MOHRE) has mandated the Wage Protection System (WPS) for five domestic worker professions, with optional enrollment for others, effective 1 April, according to a statement (pdf) and an accompanying social media post. The system aims to formalize wage payments and improve protection for domestic workers.

Which categories? Private trainers, private teachers, home caregivers, private representatives, and private agricultural engineers now fall under the WPS remit. Enrolment is still optional for another 14 professions, including housekeepers, nannies, cooks, and drivers.

Payment requirements: Wages must be paid in AED via cash-transfer or through approved electronic transfer channels within 10 working days of the due date — the first day of the month following the contract period — through CBUAE-authorized institutions.

Penalties and exemptions: Non-compliant employers face fines for a one-month delay and suspension after two months. Exemptions apply to cases involving active disputes, absconding, or new hires.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Indian Business and Professional Council’s (IBPC) Annual Conference will be held on Friday, 25 April in Dubai, Al Bayan reports. The event will focus on strengthening UAE-India relations and exploring potential investments for businesses in the UAE. It will also cover topics including the digital economy, cross-border transactions using local currencies to boost trade efficiency, and attracting investment in tourism and sustainable development.

TheBTC MENA Conference will be taking place on Monday, 8 and Tuesday, 9 December at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The second edition of the two-day event connects global and Middle Eastern leaders, investors, and developers to discuss Bitcoin’s evolving role, adoption barriers, and technological innovations in the region.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

DFM CEO is “very optimistic” about IPOs this year, as focus shifts towards growth and tech sectors

Dubai’s debt and capital markets are coming off of a strong year that saw double-digit index growth, the world’s biggest tech IPO, courtesy of Talabat, and bns in bonds and sukuk listed on Nasdaq Dubai. Despite the global market turmoil following US President Donald Trump’s introduction of a sweeping tariff regime hitting regional markets over the past week, Dubai officials are optimistic about the way forward for both debt and capital markets and the various sectors that have propped them up over the past years — from real estate to financial services.

That was the key takeaway from a session taking place during the EFG Hermes One on One Conference in Dubai yesterday, which saw Hamed Ali, the CEO of DFM and Nasdaq Dubai, and Hadi Badri, the CEO of the Dubai Economic Development Corporation, discuss the future of debt and capital markets in the Dubai and how they tie into the broader growth targets for the emirate.

So, what’s driving this optimism? Long-standing sectors like infrastructure, real estate, and newer ones like tech and virtual assets, all offer huge growth opportunities for investors, while a growing IPO pipeline and increasingly diversified asset base is inviting more activity into the market. The real estate sector alone is exhibiting incredible amounts of growth amid rising demand, most of which is from end-users, Ali said. This has prompted the emirate to think about boosting supply not just on the commercial and luxury residential side, but across sectors — including mid-income housing and affordable healthcare facilities, Badri said.

Capital markets, by the numbers: Dubai has raised AED 45 bn across 10 IPOs over the past two years, with demand coming in excess of AED 1.2 tn, Ali said. Some 137k new investors were added to the DFM last year, 85% of whom were from outside of the UAE, he added. “The IPOs where we’ve had subscriptions [over the past two years] could’ve been oversubscribed just through international demand,” Ali explained.

Ali is “very optimistic” that this IPO momentum will continue this year, with the team looking forward to a “few” transactions.

The focus now is on building up growth sectors, diversifying the capital base, and continuing to improve accessibility to investors. “We’re in talks with 400 companies that could be potential candidates,” Ali said, referencing not only candidates for listing but also those with a positive long-term outlook that could tap capital markets down the line.

One goal for the DFM for the coming year: to offer multiple growth opportunities for companies, be it through private markets, growth markets, or equity and fixed income. The other side of it — which is what makes the DFM stand out, Ali said — is building relationships with companies beyond just the processing of IPO applications. It’s about developing a “mindset” that would allow companies to tap more opportunities on the DFM and explore post-IPO options, whether in the form of follow-on offerings or private placements.

The focus has been on blue chip companies in the past, but demand and IPO oversubscription suggests many other sectors are lucrative, Ali explained. “Those are the companies that will become unicorns over the next 5-10 years,” he added. Long-standing sectors like real estate and infrastructure — which together account for 30% of the DFM’s market cap — are still a core part of the strategy, but growth businesses are now a major target as the Dubai economic agenda for 2033 takes shape.

It’s all about diversification: “Everything we do we think about through a diversification lens,” Badri said. “We want eight sectors to each control a minimum threshold of 5% of GDP by 2033,” he added. These will be a mix of strong sectors like logistics, financial services, and tourism, but the emirate will be targeting new sectors like virtual assets, advanced manufacturing, and proptech and healthtech.

Plus: talent. “[It’s a] simple philosophy: If we bring the world’s best talent, the smartest money will follow,” Badri said.

This is what global investors expect of 2025 as Trump's trade turmoil spreads

EFG Hermes Research’s annual One-on-One live poll — the largest we know of in frontier and emerging markets — could not have come at a more critical juncture this year. The poll this time around was accompanied by plenty of chatter — and audible gasps at most of the results — as attendees of the largest investor conference focused on emerging markets attempted to look through the crystal ball and make sense of the events of the past week and how they will impact key indicators of investor sentiment and economic growth. Over 400 attendees had 10 seconds to respond to each of 10 questions.

The topic on everyone’s minds — the US’ trade war — was clearly causing anxiety, with most of the attendees (58%) expecting the trade war to escalate further from here, while 42% expect no further escalation.

The impact of the trade war is already trickling down to oil prices, prompting nearly half (48%) of respondents to project an average price of USD 70 per bbl for oil this year. Some 38% were even more pessimistic, forecasting a price of USD 60 / bbl or less. Oil prices have taken a hit over the past week since the tariffs were announced, with Brent crude reaching a low of USD 63 at one point.

Gold prices, on the other hand, are expected to rise — 79% of attendees expect it to end the year higher, as investors rush to haven assets amid rising uncertainty.

The majority of respondents also expect the S&P 500 to have a correction year — understandable given the sell-off that has taken place since the announcement of the tariffs, wiping tns of USDs in stock value and bringing it dangerously close to bear market territory. The S&P 500 ended yesterday down 0.2%, and 17.6% below its February peak.

SOUND SMART- A bear market happens when stocks fall 20% from their peak.

The one thing that hasn’t changed much since the tariffs — expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts this year. The majority of respondents — 46% — still see two cuts of 25 bps taking place this year, in line with what most Fed policymakers had penciled in earlier.

Zooming in on the Middle East, most (39%) of the attendees still see the Saudi stock market delivering the best performance in USD terms — same as last year — while 22% chose Dubai. Egypt was third, with 18% of respondents optimistic about the stock exchange’s USD performance.

Geopolitics was identified as the biggest risk for MENA markets, with 55% of respondents choosing it over oil prices and reform fatigue. Oil prices came in at a close second, with 41% of respondents seeing it as a risky factor.

OTHER KEY TAKEAWAYS:

28% of respondents see banks and financials performing the best among other sectors in the region;
The UAE and Saudi Arabia were very close in terms of expectations of strong future returns in the property market, with the former getting 41% of votes and the latter getting 39%;
Some 40% see Dubai real estate prices ending the year higher.

Tap or click here (pdf) to see the full results.

The UAE’s non-oil foreign trade exceeded AED 2.8 tn in 2024 -CBUAE

The UAE saw its non-oil foreign trade grow 13.8% y-o-y in 2024, surpassing AED 2.8 tn, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s annual report (pdf). Non-oil exports grew 29.3% y-o-y, while re-exports grew by 3.8%, and imports climbed by 13.5%. The performance comes on the back of an expansion in the UAE’s trade and economic agreements with several countries last year.

China was the UAE’s largest trading partner, accounting for 11.5% of total trade, followed by India at 8.5%, and Saudi Arabia at 5.4%. Key traded commodities included gold, telecommunication equipment, and motor vehicles.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi’s non-oil foreign trade grew 9% y-o-y to AED 306 bn last year, according to an Abu Dhabi Customs press release. Non-oil exports increased by 16% y-o-y to AED 107.8 bn in 2024, while re-exports grew by 11% y-o-y to exceed AED 58 bn and imports rose 3% y-o-y to AED 140.2 bn.

REMEMBER- Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum previously said that the UAE’s non-oil foreign trade grew by 14.6% y-o-y to AED 3 tn in 2024. Non-oil goods exports were the key drivers of growth, increasing by 27.6% y-o-y to AED 561.2 bn, accounting for 18.8% of total foreign trade last year.

Sukuk and bond issuances rose 8.3% y-o-y in 1Q 2025 -Fitch

The UAE’s sukuk and bond markets continued to grow at a steady pace in 1Q 2025, with total outstanding issuances rising 8.3% y-o-y to USD 309.4 bn, state news agency Wam reports, citing Bashar Al Natoor, global head of Fitch Ratings’ Islamic Finance Group.

Sukuk are gaining ground: Islamic finance instruments accounted for 20.2% of total outstanding debt in the UAE, while conventional bonds made up the remainder. Sukuk issuances in 1Q doubled q-o-q to USD 4.9 bn. Bond issuances for the same period came in at USD 24.1 bn.

A major player globally: The UAE now holds a 6.5% share of total global sukuk outstanding, ranking fourth worldwide behind Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia, Al Natoor said. It’s also one of the largest issuers of USD-denominated debt in emerging markets, accounting for 7% of such issuances (excluding China) in 1Q — behind only Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Mexico — he added.

Sustainability-linked issuances on the rise: The UAE ranked third among emerging markets

(also excluding China) in ESG-linked sukuk and bond issuances in 1Q, trailing Turkey and the Philippines. The country led the GCC in green finance issuances last year, with USD 3.2 bn worth of issuances. This was partly supported by the extension of a fee exemption for listing ESG-linked sukuk and bonds in April 2024, part of broader efforts to support sustainability initiatives in financial markets.

Regionally strong: The total value of outstanding sukuk and bonds across the GCC reached USD 1.03 tn by the end of March, with the UAE claiming the second-largest share at 30%, he highlighted, adding that, the country also held 15.6% of total outstanding sukuk in the region.

Credit quality holding steady: Fitch currently rates USD 27.1 bn worth of sukuk issued from the UAE, with 91.9% of those instruments holding investment-grade ratings, Al Natoor noted. Some 39.5% are rated A, 35.6% BBB, and 16.8% AA, with a stable outlook across the board, he said.

Issuances are expected to remain robust for the remainder of the year, with total outstanding debt projected to hit USD 400 bn within the next few years, Al-Natoor said, attributing the continued growth to efforts to diversify funding sources, upcoming maturities, infrastructure financing, and ongoing regulatory reforms.

ADCB launches fintech venture Meedaf

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) launched an ADGM-based fintech arm focused on AI, blockchain, and analytics for financial services firms and banks, naming it Meedaf, according to a press release. The new venture will offer AI-based tools for collections and risk assessment, blockchain-based security systems, and customer loyalty management platforms. ADCB’s Group Chief Business Officer Abdulla Al Shamsi will be responsible for Meedaf’s strategic direction and growth.

Why it matters: The venture aims to address operational challenges in the region’s banking sector, including fraud detection, regulatory compliance, and customer engagement as digital transformation accelerates.

Dubai fintech Fuse raises USD 6.6 mn to simplify cross-border payments in Mena

Dubai-based Fuse has raised USD 6.6 mn in seed funding to build out its cross-border payments infrastructure for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), TechCrunch reports. The round was led by European fintech venture capital firm Northzone, with participation from Flourish Ventures, Alter Global, and angel investors including Flutterwave CEO Olugbenga Agboola and ex-Morgan Stanley MENA president George Makhoul.

Where will the funds go? The capital will support Fuse’s team expansion and product development and push for additional regional licenses, as the company scales beyond its UAE anchor market into Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. Its current clients include platforms like Airbnb, Etsy, Deel, and RemotePass, as well as remittance and crypto firms.

What does Fuse do? Founded in 2023 by George Davis (LinkedIn) and James Smith (LinkedIn), Fuse is the first platform in the region to offer virtual IBANs, with the feature being a standard in Europe but still rare in MENA. Its system allows international companies to move money in and out of regional markets without setting up a local entity or securing banking licenses. It offers USD-denominated virtual accounts for cross border transfers as well as AED-denominated ones for local transactions. Fuse currently processes hundreds of mns of USD per quarter and says revenue is growing by 50% m-o-m.

Fintechs have been seeing strong investor interest: The sector led startup funding in the UAE in 2024, pulling in USD 265 mn over the year. This momentum has continued into 2025, with March alone seeing Enza, NymCard, and Klaim raise a combined USD 65.8 mn, while Myne, Tabby, Mansa, Omnispay and Flow48 secured USD 242.5 mn in February — driven largely by Tabby’s USD 160 mn round. At the start of the year, January saw Pluto and Maalexi raise USD 7.1 mn.

Egis taps Justus as CEO, Salama appoints Ex-AIG leader

Global engineering consultant Egis has named Frederico Justus (Linkedin) as Chief Executive Officer for the Middle East and South Asia, according to a press release (pdf). Justus previously served as chief operating officer for the Middle East and South Asia regions at Egis as well as executive vice president at Datagration. He also held leadership roles at energy services firm Weatherford.

Regional ins. company Salama has appointed Mohamed Ali Bouabane (Linkedin) as Group Chief Executive Officer, according to a press release (pdf). Bouabane brings over 20 years of global ins. experience in Canada, Dubai, and Hong Kong. He previously served as CEO of AIG GCC & North Africa, where he led strategic transformations and digital initiatives. He was tapped as CEO for the firm last month.

iEmirates joins the ACC to drive a sustainable aviation supply chain, expands cargo fleet

AVIATION-

#1- Emirates expands its cargo fleet: The UAE’s flagship carrier Emirates is set to uptake five newbuild aircraft for its air cargo fleet, regional air cargo director Faisal Al-Shafei told Amwalaghad. The airline currently has 11 operational carriers in its air cargo fleet and expects cargo operations to grow by 10% through 2025. The move aligns with the firm’s plans to boost its cargo-dedicated fleet to some 32 aircrafts by 2030 and expand its cargo network to reach 72 destinations.

ALSO- Emirates joined the Aviation Circularity Consortium (ACC) to reinforce sustainability in the global aviation supply chain, according to a statement. Through the partnership, Emirates looks to reduce waste, enhance efficiency, and streamline the transition to more sustainable aviation solutions. The Emirati airline will offer up its experience in embedded recycling and circular solutions — which it already deploys across its operations — to other players in the network.

What’s the ACC? The group looks to build a circular economy in the aviation sector by spearheading new ways to boost decarbonization in heavy industry and transport supply chains, according to its website. The network was founded by aviation leaders Jamco, Qantas, Titan Leasing, Vaupell, Nandina and Sumitomo Corporation.

TELECOMS-

e& tests ultra-fast 5G: e& UAE partnered with the Telecommunications and Digital Government Regulatory Authority to conduct tests of newly allocated 6 GHz and 600 MHz spectrum bands, achieving 10 GB per second speeds and extending 5G coverage beyond 6 km, according to a press release. The trials, using commercial-grade equipment, aim to enhance wireless infrastructure for urban and remote areas.

The details: The 6 GHz band supports ultra-fast applications like 8K streaming and industrial IoT, while the 600 MHz spectrum addresses coverage gaps in dense cities and rural zones. A GSMA study estimates mid-band 5G spectrum could drive 65% of the technology’s projected USD 610 bn global GDP contribution by 2030, with UAE sectors like AI and smart cities poised to benefit.

What’s next? The company plans to integrate these bands with existing C-band spectrum to create a balanced network for high-speed, wide-coverage connectivity. Businesses can leverage the hybrid infrastructure for scalable cloud workflows, while households gain fiber-like wireless speeds.

MANUFACTURING-

Dutch metal manufacturing firm Kersten Group established a new production facility in Al Hamra Industrial Zone, expanding its presence in the Ras Al Khaimah Economic Zone, according to a statement. The 12k sqm site includes a production hall and office space, operating 24-hour shifts to supply curved metal components to sectors such as construction, architecture, offshore, and energy.

What’s next? The company plans to build on-site labor accommodation in 3Q 2025, with a second production hall set to follow in 3Q 2026.

SUSTAINABILITY-

New Sustainable City model for the UAE? SEE Holding announced plans for another UAE-based net-zero city Sustainable City 2.0 during the Alternative Investment Management congress, state news agency Wam reports, without clarifying its exact location. Designed to eliminate landfill, the city will convert all waste into usable resources through repurposing, recycling, or energy conversion. Mobility will be fully electric and autonomous, featuring shared e-cars, e-bikes, self-driving shuttles, and homes equipped for seamless contactless delivery via robots and drone pads.

There are already several Sustainable City models spread across the UAE — one operational in Dubai and two others set for handover in 4Q 2025 in Abu Dhabi and Sharjah.

Banks brace for recession, expect earlier Fed cuts as tariffs continue to shock markets

Goldman Sachs raised the probability of recession in the US economy to 45%, up from the 35% it penciled in just last week, Reuters reports. The second adjustment came after the sharper-than-expected tariffs implemented by US President Donald Trump triggered a major sell-off in global markets.

The outlook is turning bearish across the board: Other major investment banks have also revised their recession forecasts in the wake of the tariff-induced market turmoil, the newswire reported separately. JPMorgan now sees a 60% chance of a US recession by year-end. HSBC isn’t far behind, putting the odds at 40%, while S&P Global pegs the probability at 30-35%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had added to the panic earlier, labeling Trump’s tariffs as “larger than expected” and warning it could put the brakes on growth. He also flagged a “highly uncertain outlook,” noting the risk of both higher unemployment and price pressures.

Rate cuts to come sooner? Goldman now expects the Fed’s three interest rate cuts — by 25 basis points each — to start in June, revised from July. JP Morgan seconds the notion, while expecting the benchmark rate to fall to 3% by January of the next year.

Traders went all in on rate cuts in yesterday’s session, expecting the Fed to cut rates by a total of 116 basis points this year over four of the five remaining meetings, Reuters reported, citing data compiled by LSEG. The wager on “emergency” meetings — where rates are going to be cut further — remains far-fetched for now, with the unusual measures last used during the pandemic. Still, it remains to be seen how far the impact of the trade war on inflation will be, as stagflation is currently the best-case scenario for the US economy, Bill Dudley, former New York Fed president, told Bloomberg.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are opening higher today, recouping some of yesterday’s steep losses. Japan’s Nikkei is up 6.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is inching up 2.2%, and Kospi’s up 1.6%. Wall Street futures also indicate a slight recovery at market open.

ADX	8,949	-2.6% (YTD: -5.0%)
DFM	4,799	-3.1% (YTD: -7.0%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	3,823	-3.1% (YTD: -8.2%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.1% o/n	4.2% 1 yr
TASI	11,194	+1.1% (YTD: -7.0%)
EGX30	30,454	-0.6% (YTD: +2.4%)
S&P 500	5062	-0.2% (YTD: -13.9%)
FTSE 100	7702	-4.4% (YTD: -5.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4656	-4.6% (YTD: -4.9%)
Brent crude	USD 64.21	-2.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.64	-0.3%
Gold	USD 2973.60	-2.0%
BTC	USD 79,239.70	+1.5% (YTD: -15.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM fell 3.1% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. The index is down 7.0% YTD.

In the green: Emirates Islamic Bank (+2.5%), Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation (+1.9%) and Emirates REIT (+0.7%).

In the red: Watania International Holding (-9.9%), Al Mazaya Holding Company

(-9.9%) and Talabat Holding (-9.4%).

Over on the ADX, the index fell 2.6% on turnover of AED 1.5 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 3.1%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

NMDC Group approved a total dividend of AED 700.8 mn for FY 2024 — equivalent to 83 fils per share, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). Shareholders also approved a special interim dividend worth AED 2 bn, which was handed out based on a board decision from 25 October 2024.

Americana Restaurants’ shareholders will discuss a proposed dividend distribution of USD 127 mn for 2024 during the general assembly meeting on 29 April, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf).

Dubai Financial Market approved the distribution of dividends equivalent to 3.2% of its share capital, during the annual general assembly meeting, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf).

UAE and Israel discuss a potential ceasefire in Gaza

UAE, Israel foreign ministers discuss Gaza ceasefire efforts: Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed met with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar in Abu Dhabi to discuss strengthening ties and the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. The talks focused on efforts to restore a ceasefire, release the hostages, and avoid further regional escalation following the collapse of January’s truce and renewed Israeli strikes on Gaza. Sheikh Abdullah reaffirmed the UAE’s support for a two-state solution, the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and long-term regional stability.

UAE, Uzbekistan discuss deeper cooperation during climate forum visit: Energy and Infrastructure Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei met with Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to explore enhancing cooperation in renewable energy, transport, and logistics, state news agency Wam reports. Mazrouei also held talks with several Uzbek ministers on the sidelines of Samarkand International Climate Forum.

UAE and Guangzi Zhuang talk cooperation: UAE Economy Minister Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri and the chairman of China’s autonomous Guangxi Zhuang region Lan Tianli met to explore expanding economic cooperation between the UAE and China across sectors including e-commerce, logistics, renewable energy, and tourism, Wam reports.

CALENDAR

APRIL

6-11 April (Sunday-Friday): Geo-Spatial Week, Dubai.

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Investment Summit, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): World Local Production Forum, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Fujairah International Bunkering and Fuel Oil Forum, DoubleTree by Hilton Fujairah.

7-11 April (Monday-Friday): AWS GenAI Loft Dubai 2025, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Innovation One.

8 April (Tuesday): Allocations and refunds for Methaq Takaful’s rights issue on the ADX.

8-9 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): World Crisis and Emergency Management Summit, Abu Dhabi.

11-13 April (Friday-Sunday): I-Film Festival, Yas Creative Hub, Abu Dhabi.

12-13 April (Saturday-Sunday): Global Justice, Love & Peace Summit, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City Dubai.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Dubai Woodshow, Dubai World Trade Center

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): IPS congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

14-26 April (Monday-Saturday): Solana Economic Zone, Dubai.

15-17 April (Tuesday-Thursday): The Abu Dhabi Global Health Week, Adnec center, Abu Dhabi.

15 April (Tuesday): The Global Islamic FinTech Forum, Dusit Thani Hotel, Dubai.

15 April (Tuesday): G42 to acquire USD 335 mn worth of shares in Cerebras.

16-17 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The FastBull Finance Summit, Coca Cola Arena, Dubai.

16-18 April (Wednesday-Friday): World Future Energy Summit,Abu Dhabi National Exhibition, Abu Dhabi.

21-25 April (Monday-Friday): The Dubai AI Week, Museum of the Future and Area 2071, Emirates Towers, Dubai.

22-24 April (Tuesday-Thursday): DOMOTEX Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

22-24 April (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Conference on Education Quality,General Directorate of Identity and Foreigners Affairs Office, Dubai.

23-24 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Dubai AI Festival, Dubai International Financial Center.

25 April-11 May (Friday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai World Trade Center.

25 April (Friday): The Indian Business and Professionals Council’s (IBPC) Annual Conference, Dubai.

28 April-1 May (Monday-Thursday): The Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center

28 April-2 May (Monday-Friday): The Annual Conference of the International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers’ Associations (IFATCA)

29 April (Monday): Deadline to send comments and feedback on the FSRA proposal.

Signposted to happen sometime in April:

Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League, Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi

MAY

5-6 May (Monday-Tuesday): The Governance of Emerging Technologies Summit (GETS 2025), St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, Abu Dhabi.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Ports Forum, Dubai.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

6-8 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Centre.

13-16 May (Tuesday-Friday): International Union for Health Promotion and Education Conference, Abu Dhabi.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Annual HR Tech MENA, Dubai.

13-15 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Cabsat Middle East and Satellite Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

15 May (Thursday-Sunday): The Economy Middle East Summit, ADGM, Abu Dhabi.

15 May (Thursday): Dewa tender for pumping stations bids deadline.

15-18 May (Thursday-Sunday): The GLA Global Logistics Conference, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

16-18 May (Friday-Sunday): GISEC, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-22 May (Monday-Thursday): Make it in the Emirates, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

20 May (Tuesday): Dubai Business Forum, Hamburg, Germany.

20-21 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): The International Real Estate Investment Summit (IREIS 2025), Al Hamra International Exhibition and Conference Centre in Ras Al Khaimah.

20-22 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

23-25 May (Friday-Sunday): EuroLeague Final Four, Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi.

26-28 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arab Media Summit, World Trade Center, Dubai.

27-29 May (Tuesday-Thursday): INDEX, Workspace, and The Hotel Show, Dubai World Trade Center.

30 May (Friday): Arafat Day.

31 May-2 June (Saturday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

JUNE

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Middle East Rail, Dubai World Trade Center.

27 June (Friday): Islamic New Year.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG’s acquisition of Covestro

JULY

6-7 July (Sunday-Monday): BRICS Summit, Rio de Janeiro.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): DigiHealth exhibition, World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-14 September (Friday-Sunday): The International Real Estate and Investment Show, Abu Dhabi.

16-17 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mohammed Bin Rashid Leadership Forum, Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development, Dubai.

OCTOBER

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Symposium on the System of Radiological Protection, the Ritz-Carlton Abu Dhabi, Grand Canal.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

15-17 November (Saturday-Monday): Myplant & Garden Middle East Green Expo, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow 2025, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): BTC Mena Conference, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): BRIDGE media summit, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)
The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Global Implementation Support Symposium, Abu Dhabi.
Universal Postal Congress 2025, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in the fall of 2025:

2025 Games of the Future, Dubai.
ICOM General Conference 2025, Dubai

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.
12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference 2026, UAE
9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit’s fourth edition, UAE

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime between 2027 and 2029:

The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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