US stocks see historic “bull crash” amid recession, trade war fears, with investors shifting towards safer assets like gold

There are more signs than ever before that interest in US equities has peaked, with a Bank of America survey showing investors have slashed their allocations by the most ever in March, the Financial Times reports. Investors raised their cash allocation from 3.5% to 4.1%, with the speed of the sell-off “consistent with end of equity correction,” Reuters reports. Some 70% of investors said the “US exceptionalism” theme prevalent in the first few months of the year following US President Donald Trump's inauguration is long gone.

Tech stocks in particular are falling out of favor: The survey found that investors had moved to a net 12% underweight position on US tech stocks, the lowest allocation for more than two years. Shares in tech firms like Elon Musk’s Tesla continued to witness a sell-off yesterday, with the blue-chip S&P 500 closing yesterday 1.1% down, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling 1.7%. Tesla’s shares dipped more than 5%, while Nvidia’s shares fell 3.4%.

In context: Investors have turned bearish towards US stocks after being raging bulls for months earlier this year due to concerns over stagflation, trade tensions, and a potential slowdown in economic growth. Global growth expectations recorded their second-largest decline on record, according to the survey.

The US bond market is also seeing investors shift away from riskier assets amid recession fears and uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies, Reuters reports separately. Investors have been extending bond duration for at least a month, positioning for lower yields. JP Morgan’s Treasury Client Survey revealed that long positions on treasuries are now at their highest level since 2010.

On the other hand, gold is having a much better week, with investors’ shift towards safe-haven assets pushing its price past the USD 3k mark yesterday for the second time this week, Reuters reports. The rally was fueled by a weaker USD and ongoing tariff uncertainty, as well as renewed tensions in the Middle East after Israel broke the ceasefire in Gaza with airstrikes yesterday, killing more than 400 people. Trump’s inauguration has also given gold a new impetus, with the asset hitting record highs 14 times, reflecting strong demand.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei and Topix both up, along with South Korea’s Kospi, while China’s CSI 300 opened flat, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 0.25%. Over on Wall Street, little has changed in futures markets following yesterday’s losses.

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM fell 0.4% yesterday on turnover of AED 378.1 mn. The index is down 0.2% YTD.

In the green: Shuaa Capital (+5.6%), Chimera S&P UAE UCITS ETF (+3.3%) and United Properties (+2.7%).

In the red: Dubai Refreshment (-10.0%), National Cement (-8.9%) and Ekttitab Holding (-4.9%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.1% on turnover of AED 1.4 bn. Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.4%, and up 2.3% YTD.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Amlak Finance advances debt restructuring with new repayment plan: Real estate financier Amlak Finance inked a repayment agreement with its financers for outstanding facilities amounting to AED 1.4 bn, with full repayment scheduled for October 2026, the company said in a statement (pdf). This follows negotiations with six financiers since May 2023, which have already reduced liabilities by AED 800 mn, as of last December, according to a statement (pdf).

Amlak plans to fund the repayment through asset sales, including Ras Al Khor plots, pending shareholder approval. The agreement marks a key step in Amlak’s efforts to exit the Common Terms Agreement for Restructuring, in place since 2014.

National Cement’s general assembly has approved the distribution of AED 71.8 mn in dividends for 2024 equivalent to AED 0.2 per share, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). Shareholders also approved transferring AED 78.3 mn (25% of the statutory reserve) to retained earnings.

PureHealth’s board proposed an AED 343.1 mn dividend for 2024 — its first ever — equivalent to 20% of the company’s net income, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The decision is pending the approval of shareholders at the annual general assembly on 9 April.

Gulf Medical Projects’ board of directors has approved the distribution of AED 104.8 mn in dividends, according to a statement (pdf). The payout represents 15% of the shares’ nominal value, equivalent to 15 fils per share based on net income.

The National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah’s (Rakbank) general assembly approved distributing AED 1 mn in dividends for 2024, equivalent to 50% of its share capital, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the ADX.

The National Bank of Fujairah (NBF) will distribute AED 387.1 mn in dividends for 2024, or 15% of its paid-up capital, after its general assembly approved the move, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the ADX.

Waha Capital’s general assembly approved distributing AED 188.4 mn in dividends for 2024at 10 fils per share, it said in a disclosure (pdf) to the ADX.