It’s only March, and yet 2025 feels as if it has been two years long. From tech to geopolitics, the pace of change is dizzying, and its implications for business staggering. As uncertainty continues to weigh on investors and businesses alike, with everything from the ongoing US trade war to potential ceasefires for wars in Gaza and Ukraine shaking up geopolitical relations, markets, and global financial flows, two concepts have emerged as priorities for businesses: adaptability and resilience.

Business owners are looking at future-proofing their businesses, countries — like the UAE — are expanding trade partnerships and diversifying their economies, and everyone in the C-suite is thinking about AI. From Dubai to Cairo, Abu Dhabi to Riyadh, we’re sitting down with the smartest people we know to sort out how to make sense of it all — and identify the trends now taking shape that will change how we all do business in 2025 and beyond.

Today’s guest: Norman Tambach (LinkedIn), group chief financial officer at Mashreq. Norman took on the role a little over a year ago, after more than ten years at ING Germany, where he was also CFO as of 2019. He also spent two decades with KPMG in Europe. Norman, like so many of the Mashreq executives we’ve sat down with, is passionate about tech and staying ahead, and is constantly thinking about bringing into the fold the right people to drive change. Edited excerpts from our conversation:

Enterprise: We’re barely even three months in, and 2025 has already been a wild ride globally. What trends do you see taking shape this year that will change how we all do business in 2030?

NT: If you had asked me that question just a month or two ago, I would have said it was all about how the world reacted to falling interest rates. The European Central Bank started that process last year, cutting rates four times between June and December to 3% from 4% at the start of the year. That process really accelerated toward the end of the year. It was a similar story in the United States, though the Federal Reserve started a bit later, cutting 100 bps between September and December.

The expectation heading into January was that we would likely see the Fed cut rates four times this year, but the combination of trade and fiscal uncertainties in the United States along with high inflation there in January now sees many penciling in two cuts this year totaling 50 bps.

Obviously, fewer rate cuts are better for net interest margins if you’re a bank, but weighing on the other side of the equation is the sheer volume of change now reshaping the global trade and political systems.

E: What does the Trump administration mean for our part of the world?

NT: It’s still too early to tell, really, but it’s clear his second term will be about change on a global scale. His America-first policies will challenge many: Europe, which is struggling with growth, will face headwinds. Many European corporates were already struggling, the continent is still adapting to a lack of cheap Russian energy. Volkswagen was on the verge of closing three factories last year — that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. And Europe also faces significant issues with social security. So I see challenges for Europe. China will also face additional economic headwinds, as the recent imposition of tariffs by Washington underscores.

On the other hand, I am optimistic. The US and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, particularly the UAE, have strong bilateral ties and have always maintained a solid relationship.

E: Let’s imagine you’re seated at a dinner party next to a newly-appointed bank CFO. She asks for three pieces of advice. What do you tell her?

NT: I would start with resilience, meaning diversified revenues, strong risk management, lean in costs and scalable processes. The best time to start building resilience in your organization at all levels was during the last three years. The next-best time is now.

If she’s just been appointed CFO, she has a fresh pair of eyes and doesn’t need me there. But I’d tell her to watch for opportunities in our part of the world, in the GCC in particular. Work with the CEO and the business leaders to grasp these opportunities. Even with all the change happening, I still feel bullish on this region.

You need to keep your eyes open for signals to the contrary, but we’re still in a reasonably benign economic cycle right now. GCC finances are strong and risk costs are still below long term averages. GCC leaders have a steady hand in steering their countries. Furthermore, the economic development of India is also contributing to how our regional story is developing.

E: What “signals to the contrary” are you looking at?

NT: For example: Do we see credit risk going up? As mentioned, we do not see this happening at the moment but are keeping a close watch for signals of a turning of the cycle. Larger companies are cash rich and comfortably paying down loans. Furthermore, we’re not seeing big surges in highly cyclical products such as personal loans, SME loans, or credit cards. Whether you’re a banker or leading another business, trends in consumer and small-business health are critical signals to watch.

Obviously, any change in guidance or sentiment on interest rates. Whether you’re allocating capital or hoping to take it on, interest rate dynamics are a big influence. The ability to source capital when an investor could get 7% and acceptable risk from a portfolio of bonds is very different than when interest rates are half that figure or less.

In 2025, like most of us I’m also watching geopolitics closely. What happens with Ukraine? With Israel-Palestine? How do tariffs and the China-plus-one manufacturing strategies impact supply chains and inflation?

E: What’s your outlook for the UAE?

NT: I don’t have a crystal ball but let me say this: If you accept that it is possible our world will be marked by more protectionism, more tariffs, and more friction, then I think being based in the UAE is a very good thing indeed. The UAE continues to build strong relationships with other nations — they are quite neutral in that respect. The UAE wants to trade and do business with everyone. Ultimately, the UAE’s commitment to sound regulation, to peace and prosperity, to open trade relationships are all very good for business. The UAE as a whole, and Dubai in particular, have been very forward-minded and tolerant and that has obviously brought a lot of prosperity.

E: Do you see AI being any less important this year than it was last year?

Not at all. Anyone who thinks the pace of change is slow — that the models have maxed out what they can do — isn’t thinking about this the right way. I think the AI revolution is only just beginning to impact our lives.

E: A lot of senior execs are personally uncomfortable with AI.

When you’re truly at the cutting edge of AI and digitalization, consultants can’t always help. Consulting and tech firms can help in certain areas, but the real work of pioneering, implementing, and sustaining AI must be owned by the business itself.

This isn’t new — this is the reality whenever an industry is figuring out how to adapt to massive change. The way forward for CFOs and others on the leadership team at financial institutions is to break change down into discrete problems or experiments and start with proofs of concept. You really do need to start figuring it out yourself. The alternative is to wait for others to do it and hope that new ideas trickle down to you in time. Instead, we’ve decided at Mashreq that we want to be at the vanguard and thus have to push things forward more aggressively, but with deliberation.

E: How do you deal with internal resistance?

NT: Change can be scary — it’s natural that some people will resist it. But every organization has people who find it very exciting to be at the forefront. You need to find them. You also need to think long and hard about who you’re partnering with — maybe you do want a consultant, but it’s perhaps not always one of the “typical” tech partners you have. Perhaps you’ll find that the solution is in a more boutique tech partner in India or Egypt or Pakistan.

E: How solid is AI proving to be for you folks?

NT: Of course, we’ve already implemented Microsoft’s Copilot and it’s really interesting to see how it’s developing and increasing its capabilities all the time. The challenge on the provider side isn’t so much the Microsoft or the OpenAI or Google, but with your other Tech providers. For example, how quickly can the big Enterprise software companies Oracle and SAP think things through and roll out deeply embedded AI features in their products. What is their roadmap for solving business problems and addressing business needs?

E: Is AI something that will prompt corporates to change technology vendors?

NT: I’m not sure I see that happening. On the AI front, the companies are constantly playing “leapfrog and catch-up.” It’s very, very difficult to imagine a world in which a banker at for example an “Oracle company” would embrace becoming an “SAP company” — the cost of change is huge in time and money. It’s your entire enterprise system so reasons for change has to be compelling.

I think what we could see, based on my experience in Europe, is some companies taking a more modular approach where maybe you use Oracle for your database, but you’re open to other specialist providers for key additional applications or features or integrations. Especially, when companies feel the big Enterprise software companies are not moving fast enough with AI and related features.

The strategy on how to get there is very important and it can be quite challenging to sort out. That’s where good planning and execution, in close cooperation with the Tech counterparts comes into play alongside your willingness to break things down into components — and your ability to plan for the future needs of the business as you grow and develop.

E: Is there an opportunity for an upstart to take market share from established leaders, whether ERP providers or companies that build core banking systems?

NT: If an established provider isn’t moving quickly enough, perhaps. I think the opportunity, though, is in more specialized and discrete applications — like vendor management, spend management, contract management. Your core data remains your core data, but I could see an interesting ecosystem taking shape offering new value to corporations like us.

E: Are there any lessons you’ve learned in the process of driving tech change that folks at an earlier stage in their journey could learn from?

NT: As CFO, you must own and drive the process rather than waiting for your tech counterpart to solve everything. It is an everyday commitment. The second thing is to draw hard lines around how many exceptions you allow, customization of standard applications takes a lot of time and is expensive. Various internal stakeholders always want a new system to work exactly as the old with some new features. Successful implementation requires balancing changes to existing workflows with warranted customizations. Digitalization is made so much easier when you have standardized products — exceptions are the enemy of optimization in that respect.

E: We’re talking about tech change, but you keep coming back to people. Where do you find the people who speak the same language when it comes to change?

NT: Sometimes they’re already on the board. Often they’re your colleagues on the management team. I guess at Mashreq I am quite lucky to find both. However, if you have good talent acquisition, inspiring management and structure the KPIs and incentives right, I am convinced you can build the right team. People who want to make things happen by working agilely and collaboratively. And it’s tough, yeah?