Economy to grow 5.1%, while current account surplus could narrow

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: India’s Infibeam eyes ADX listing + Alpha Dhabi, Mubadala private credit venture deploys USD 1 bn in capital

Good morning, lovely people. The brief respite from the news last week has all but vanished, with a flood of M&A news coming in from the likes of Emirates NBD, Multiply, and Mubadala, as well as a fresh batch of economic projections from S&P Global and Fitch’s BMI. Plus: Cabinet met yesterday, and approved the country’s new national investment strategy.

We also have the latest data on Dubai’s office market last year — which indicates that the emirate is at near full capacity. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- We’re in for another cloudy day with possible light rain, according to our favorite weather app and the National Center of Meteorology’s forecast (pdf). Temperatures in Dubai are expected to hit 33°C during the day, with an overnight low of 22°C, while Abu Dhabi is expected to see temperatures hitting 26°C and an overnight low of 22°C.

So, when do we eat? Maghrib is at 6:29 pm today in Dubai and 6:33 pm in Abu Dhabi. You’ll have until fajr prayers at 5:15 am in Dubai and 5:19 am in Abu Dhabi tomorrow to finish your sohour.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Infibeam revamps UAE payments division ahead of ADX listing: India-based fintech Infibeam Avenues established a new Abu Dhabi special purpose vehicle (SPV) to manage its UAE payments arm, Avenues World, in preparation for its upcoming listing on the ADX, according to a stock exchange filing (pdf). The restructuring will involve transferring ownership of Avenues World, which operates the CCAvenue.ae payment gateway in the UAE, to the new SPV, Infibeam Avenues ME. The SPV will be 80% owned by Infibeam's existing Emirati subsidiary, Vavian International. This reorganization is aimed at aligning with ADX listing requirements and advancing Infibeam's broader expansion strategy in the MENA region, Entrackr reports.

Infibeam’s UAE unit Avenues World also raised USD 25 mn in a pre-IPO equity placement earlier last year at a valuation of USD 100 mn.

REMEMBER- We knew the payment firm’s UAE subsidiary was eyeing a listing since March last year, with reports that it was planning to raise the pre-IPO equity round.

#2- Shuaa’s management greenlights its MCB issuances: Shuaa Capital’s board approved the issuance of AED 267.1 mn in mandatory convertible bonds (MCBs) to existing noteholders and AED 85-150 mn in new investor MCBs, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The issuances are subject to final adjustments and pending approval from the securities and commodities authority (SCA).

REMEMBER-Shuaa Capital issued USD 150 mn in mandatory convertible bonds to existing notholders as part of the exchange offer for Shuaa’s USD 150 mn notes due 31 March 2025. This follows an April 2024 agreement with bondholders, allowing partial conversion of holdings into equity, while the remaining debt will be settled at a markdown by the due date. The company also previously secured binding commitments from institutional investors for a separate tranche, valued at up to AED 150 mn, convertible into shares at AED 0.32 per share. Shuaa had earlier announced plans to issue a total of AED 642.5 mn in MCBs as part of its broader capital optimization strategy.

What’s next? The expected issuance date of the MCBs is set for on or before 18 March, subject to receiving SCA’s approval.

#3- DFM-listed maritime player GulfNav will review two separate valuation reports for acquisition target Brooge Energy’s companies and assets during an upcoming general assembly meeting on Thursday, with the goal of deciding on whether or not the acquisition will go through, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the DFM. One of the valuation reports was prepared by an independent advisor appointed by the Securities and Commodities Authority, and values the company at a higher share price than the other report, which was prepared by GulfNav’s advisor. The board recommends the approval of the latter valuation, and said the “outcome of the votes on these two valuations will be critical in deciding whether the acquisition moves forward.”

REMEMBER- GulfNav’s board greenlit the acquisition of Brooge Petroleum and Gas Investment Company from Brooge Energy last September. The acquisition, which was initially expected to close in 4Q 2023 after GulfNav submitted the offer in October of that year, will be executed through a share swap agreement: Gulfnav plans to issue 358.8 mn new shares to Brooge Energy with a one-year lock-up period, alongside AED 2.3 bn in mandatory convertible bonds set to be converted into shares. Additionally, a separate AED 500 mn convertible bond issuance will be allocated to existing shareholders with the rump offering, if any, set to be limited to major shareholders. The company will also pay AED 460 mn in cash to settle the transaction.

#4- Good news for holders of online foreign degrees in the UAE: The Higher Education and Scientific Research Ministry will begin accepting degrees obtained through distance learning, open education, and online degrees on certain conditions, Gulf News reports. To qualify, degrees must come from accredited institutions, follow official study programs, and comply with the UAE’s recognition criteria for online learning, which limits online study hours to 18 credit hours per semester.

What to do: Applicants must first verify their degrees through the ministry’s authorized verification partners Dataflow or QuadraBay before obtaining an official recognition report. The process — conducted fully online — takes approximately 30 working days, with a three-month appeal period for denied applications.

#5- DIFC is eyeing 20% growth in 2025 as expansion plans take shape: Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) is targeting 20% growth in new companies in 2025, following strong momentum in the first two months of the year, DIFC governor Essa Kazim told Al Bayan. The center is also finalizing its master plan for its expansion project, DIFC 2.0, with an official launch expected soon.

Background: DIFC 2.0, first announced in 2019, will add 13 mn square feet of office, residential, retail, and innovation space. DIFC buildings continue to see high occupancy rates, with a new tower expected to be completed in early 2026 to meet rising demand.

ICYMI- DIFC saw record growth in 2024, attracting 1.8k new companies — a 25% y-o-y increase — bringing the total number of active firms to 6.9k. The majority of new entrants came from Asia and Europe, with DIFC also welcoming 200 family businesses last year.

#6- The Sharjah Consultative Council’s Legislative and Legal Affairs Committee is reviewing a draft law regulating the emirate’s judicial system, state news agency Wam reports. The proposed law defines the structure of the courts, their jurisdictions, operational procedures, and the criteria for appointing and promoting judges. The committee is conducting a detailed review of its 88 articles to ensure alignment with the existing legal framework.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Alpha DhabiHolding and Mubadala Investment Company’s private credit joint venture (JV) reached USD 1 bn in deployed capital, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf), which did not provide further details on the transactions involved. Established in 2023, the JV is targeting USD 2.5 bn in private credit investments by 2028, leveraging Mubadala’s partnership with Apollo Global Management to access high-quality lending opportunities.

ICYMI- The two formed a JV in 2023 with USD 2.5 bn earmarked for lending in private credit over five years. Mubadala holds an 80% majority stake, with Alpha Dhabi owning the remaining 20%. Other recent investment ventures into private credit by Mubadala include a USD 1 bn co-investment with Goldman Sachs, a multi-bn-USD partnership collaboration with Apollo Management, a USD 1 bn investment to Blue Owl Capital’s tech lending strategy, and a USD 1 bn investment for its JV with Ares Management. It is also the anchor investor in funds for both Starz Real Estate and Blue Opal Capital.

#2- The UAE’s ins. sector is projected to reach USD 20 bn in 2025, growing at 15-20% y-o-y, according to an S&P Global report (pdf). This growth is driven by rate increases in the property/casualty (P/C) sector, especially following the April 2024 floods, and an overall profitable underwriting performance, supported by rate adjustments and reins. commissions.

On the downside, more UAE firms are subject to regulatory intervention: Some 25% of UAE-listed ins. firms operate below or just above the minimum solvency capital requirements, exposing them to a heightened risk of regulatory intervention in 2025. Additionally, rising reins. costs could put pressure on earnings, particularly for small and mid-sized firms. Despite a decline in high-risk asset exposure, capital and earnings volatility remain concerns.

GCC ins. markets are expected to witness a top-line growth of 5-15% this year on the back of infrastructure developments, the launch of compulsory ins. schemes, population growth, and rate adjustments. Companies could also see further consolidation amid stricter regulations and weak capital buffers.

PSAs-

FTA introduces new tax application for family businesses: The Federal Tax Authority (FTA) launched a new application on the EmaraTax platform, allowing eligible family businesses to apply for joint venture status, Wam reports.

Once approved, these firms will no longer need to file corporate tax returns, though individual beneficiaries may still be required to register and submit returns. To qualify, applicants must already be registered for corporate tax and meet the conditions set by Ministerial Decision No. 261 of 2024 (pdf).

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Alpha Data’s shares will begin trading on the ADX today in the exchange’s first IPO of the year. The IT services firm will float a 40% stake in the secondary share sale, with Bin Hamoodah Company — one of Alpha Data’s only two shareholders — selling a 26.67% stake, and Ibbini Investment selling a 13.3% stake. The company priced its IPO at the top of its indicative price range at AED 1.50 per share, raising AED 600 mn.

#2- Adnoc’s CEO Sultan Al Jaber is attending energy conference CERA Week in Houston, with meetings planned in Washington following the event as well as plans to discuss Adnoc’s investment strategy, including in the US.

REMEMBER-The state-run oil giant is reportedly looking to snap up natural gas producing fields in the US, Bloomberg reported earlier this week. The potential acquisitions will aim to support its existing US assets and enhance its access to fuel and feedstock for its chemical plants and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities in the US.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

A single story is dominating the headlines this morning: US President Donald Trump’s tariffs sent US markets plunging yesterday. The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, while tech stocks saw their biggest day of losses since 2022 — thanks to Tesla shares falling 15%, seeing their worst performance in five years — and the Nasdaq dipped 3.8%, wiping out USD 1 tn in value. The Dow Jones also dropped 2.1%.

“This big sell-off feels ugly, it feels nasty,” Citigroup’s Drew Pettit said. “We were coming off very high sentiment and very high growth expectations. All of this is just recalibrating to the new risks that are in front of us,” he said. (Bloomberg | CNBC | FT | Reuters | AP | CNN | BBC)

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S&P Global sees the UAE’s economy growing by 5.1% in 2025

UAE economy seen growing by 5.1% this year: S&P Global’s Market Intelligence Unit sees the UAE’s real GDP growing by 5.1% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026, Al Etihad reports, citing forecasts from S&P Global that it has seen.

Driving the growth: The UAE’s non-oil economy is expected to maintain its momentum in 2025, driven by robust demand for services, particularly in tourism, trade, and finance sectors. Meanwhile, the increase in oil production in the UAE in 2025 due to the recent adjustment in its Opec+ quota will help accelerate growth in 2025 and 2026, according to S&P Global. However, weaker oil price expectations for 2025 are likely to lead to a decline in export revenues and government income compared to 2024, the agency said.

Remember: The UAE is set to see a higher production quota of 3.5 mn barrels per day in 2025, up from the current 2.9 mn, after the oil cartel agreed to raise its production quota last year.

S&P Global sees inflation remaining stable at 1.8% in 2025, driven by a strong AED and stable monetary policy, with the only exception coming in the form of a slight interest rate cut expected in May, which would help balance strong domestic demand.

There’s no clear consensus over the UAE’s growth prospects this year: S&P Global’s forecast is in line with that of Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI, which recently revised its forecast for the UAE’s economy this year to 5.1%, slightly down from 5.2% predicted in October, while the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank revised their forecasts for the UAE’s economy this year to 4.0%. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) penciled in a higher growth estimate of 4.5% in 2025 in December.

REMEMBER- The UAE is targeting a GDP of AED 3 tn by 2031. The economy is on track to grow 7.0% annually in the coming period if interest rates and inflation continue to decline globally, Economy Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri said earlier this month. Al Marri has repeatedly said 7.0% annual growth is a “ personal target ” of his, citing that figure in 2023 and 2024.

Emirates NBD gets greenlight to conduct due diligence on Banque Du Caire ahead of a potential acquisition

Emirates NBD will start conducting due diligence on Egyptian state-owned Banque Du Caire as it eyes a stake in the Egyptian lender, a senior banking source told EnterpriseAM. The move was okayed by the Central Bank of Egypt, after the government turned down a separate offer by an anonymous Kuwait-based bidder, Asharq Business reports, citing two unnamed sources it says have knowledge of the matter. The transaction is expected to reach a close in a matter of six weeks, according to the outlet.

The details: Banque Misr is reportedly seeking USD 1-1.2 bn from the direct sale of a 45% stake in BdC, the source told us, implying that the BdC boasts a valuation of c.USD 3 bn, according to our calculations. A separate stake could be debuted on the EGX while the parent company — Banque Misr — retains a non-controlling stake, the source told us, adding that BdC is also open to competing bids from strategic investors.

Background: Sourced had told a local Egyptian outlet last month that Emirati and Kuwaiti financial institutions have begun due diligence to acquire at least 60% of Banque du Caire. The state was said to be looking to exit the lender in 2Q 2025, with CI Capital reportedly appointed as the financial advisor for the sale.

The caveat: Unresolved issues over BdC’s Sinai-based assets, which under Egyptian law cannot be owned by foreign investors, are still being worked through — with options including selling those assets to a local investor or transferring them to a state-owned bank currently under review, Asharq Business reported.

In context: The Egyptian government has floated — and repeatedly delayed — plans to list Banque du Caire since 2018. The government has continued to position BdC as a prime privatization target, with Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly highlighting it in December as one of ten state-owned companies — alongside fellow banking sector stalwart Alexbank — slated for stake sales in 2025.

Part of a wider privatization push: The transaction is unfolding against the backdrop of a broader government push to accelerate state asset sales and attract Gulf capital as part of efforts to shore up FCY reserves and stabilize public finances. The sale also reflects the deepening strategic alliance between Egypt and the UAE, which has already seen major investments like the Modon-backed Ras El Hekma project and Al Dahra’s agricultural expansion.

It wouldn’t be the first time an Emirati investor shows interest in local Egyptian banks: The UAE’s largest lender — FAB — made a run at EFG Hermes back in 2022, while Abu Dhabi’s Chimera acquired financial services firm Beltone Holding. Chimera also took stakes in high-profile non-bank financial services outfits including GB Lease and MNT Investments.

BMI sees UAE’s current account surplus narrowing to 7.7% of GDP in 2025

UAE current account surplus expected to narrow to 7.7% of GDP in 2025: Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI sees the UAE current account surplus narrowing to 7.7% of GDP in 2025, down from an estimated 8.2% in 2024, BMI said in a report. This forecast is a more bearish one than the consensus, which “foresees a narrowing from 9.5% of GDP in 2024 to 8.5% of GDP this year,” according to BMI.

Driving the drop: While BMI sees the services surplus widening throughout the year, the goods trade surplus is expected to fall on the back of “lower oil and non-oil exports,” coupled with a robust increase in imports. The research unit took into account trends recorded in 2024, which showed a 14.6% rise in imports that “more than offset the strong increase in non-oil exports and re-exports.” Rising imports along with a slowdown in Brent prices and increased oil production restrictions are all factors that are expected to carry over to this year, causing the goods trade surplus to narrow further.

Where BMI sees oil prices this year: BMI’s oil and gas team sees Brent prices falling by 4.8% in 2025. The decline in prices means that the research unit also sees oil exports dropping to 10.8% of GDP this year, down from a projected 12.4% of GDP in 2024 — a fall that it sees coming despite higher output levels.

Non-oil exports are also set to see a slight decline: Non-oil exports and re-exports are seen dropping to 49.8% of GDP in 2025, down from 52.5% of GDP in 2024 on the back of “stronger increase in nominal GDP, slower growth in precious metal prices (precious metals exports account for 15.8% of total exports) and weaker demand in key partners such as China, Türkiye and the US,” the report reads.

Imports are also set to increase at a slightly slower pace, slipping to 59.2% of GDP from 61.3% in 2024. This slowdown is expected to be driven by lower global food prices and slower growth in gold prices, but it will be offset by a “strong demand for capital imports given large-scale infrastructure projects.”

Potential risks could bring down our surplus further: US President Donald Trump’s potential oil policies and regional geopolitical tensions stand as two key risks that could further narrow the UAE’s surplus. A decision from Trump to increase the US’s oil supply could prompt “Opec+ to further prolong or increase the supply restrictions,” which would lead to a sharper contraction in the UAE’s oil exports. Meanwhile, a breakdown in ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and a subsequent return of unrest could have an impact on the UAE’s port activity and reduce transport receipts, while an escalation of tension between the US and Iran could lead to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — another factor that could impact the UAE’s ability to export.

Remember: Opec+ agreed to stick to plans to revive supply in April following repeated delays, according to a statement last week. The group cited “healthy market fundamentals” and a “positive outlook,” but kept the door open for future changes in policy, saying the increase may be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. The UAE is set to see a higher production quota of 3.5 mn barrels per day in 2025, up from the current 2.9 mn, after the oil cartel agreed to raise its production quota last year.

Despite the risks, the Emirates are well positioned to weather any economic shocks thanks to FX reserves of USD 218.5 bn, the report said. Growth in services exports may also partially offset the negative impact of the narrowing surplus thanks to an uptick in tourism, logistics activities, and secondary income from the UAE’s foreign population. Additionally, any potential US tariffs aren’t set to have much impact, as aluminum exports to the US only make up 1% of the UAE’s total exports.

Multiply Group eyes sale of district cooling unit + Mubadala exits Calisen

ADX-listed investment firm Multiply Group is said to be mulling the sale of its district cooling unit, Pal Cooling Holding amid the ongoing construction boom in the Emirates, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The firm has enlisted Standard Chartered to advise on the potential transaction, which could see it rake in some USD 1 bn in proceeds, the people said.

Roadshow underway: Despite being in the early stages, the sale has reportedly drummed up interest from both regional and international investors, one person said. Multiply did not confirm or deny the potential sale, saying in an ADX disclosure (pdf) that it “continuously assess[es] strategic options that have the potential to enhance shareholder value, including acquisitions, exits, and other forms of portfolio optimization.”

About Pal Cooling Holding: Founded in 2006, the Abu Dhabi-based firm owns and operates a portfolio of central cooling plants that supply chilled water for air conditioning at various stages of development, according to its website. Pal has long-term contracts to supply over 600k tons of refrigeration (TR) of cooling, in addition to a healthy pipeline of projects.

By the numbers: The energy and utilities vertical of Multiply Group (which consists of two subsidiaries) made up 17% of its net income split last year, according to its 2024 earnings release (pdf). Multiply Group’s net income came in at AED 1 bn, up 7.1% y-o-y (excluding fair value charges). The firm's revenues rose 56.2% y-o-y to AED 2 bn.

Big players in the domestic market have been expanding their market share through acquisitions. Mubadala-backed Tabreed acquired an 80% stake in Emaar Properties’ district cooling unit in 2020, and DFM-listed Dubai-based Empower snapped up Dubai International Airport’s district cooling assets in 2023. It has also recently been on an acquisition spree for more district cooling units across the country. This comes amid an ongoing wave of construction that has hiked demand for district cooling.

IN OTHER M&A NEWS-

Mubadala offloaded its indirect stake in Calisen, a UK-based provider of smart meters and small-scale energy transition infrastructure, according to a press release. The move caps a four-year PE investment cycle alongside a consortium of other investors who took the company private for GBP 1.4 bn in 2020. Information about the value of the sale wasn’t disclosed.

Background: Private equity firm EQT and Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC were said to be acquiring a majority stake in Calisen in December 2024 from the consortium, valuing the company at around GBP 4 bn at the time.

Office lease rates rise in 2024 as space runs out -Knight Frank

Rising demand for Grade A office space in Dubai is forcing businesses to expand into new commercial districts, including Expo City and Dubai Science Park, as occupancy levels in the city’s prime business hubs reach record highs, according to Knight Frank’s Dubai Office Market Review (pdf). With space running out, companies are also pre-leasing offices before they are even completed.

Occupancy levels hit record highs: Occupancy rates at the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) hit nearly 100%, while prime buildings on Sheikh Zayed Road are averaging 95.4% occupancy. Downtown Dubai and Business Bay are also near full capacity with occupancy levels ranging at 95-97%.

Office lease rates in Dubai’s major business districts jumped 24.3% year-on-year in 2H 2024. The Trade Centre District saw the biggest spike, with rents rising 96%. The Greens and Dubai South followed with an 83% increase, while Sheikh Zayed Road (West) recorded a 50.4% jump.

Companies are scrambling for space, with demand for 1.28 mn sq ft of office space recorded in 2024, up 64% y-o-y from 2023. The banking and finance, real estate, and business services sectors alone accounted for 843k sq ft of that demand.

Office sales transaction volumes jumped alongside leasing demand, with 1.6k transactions recorded in 2H 2024, a 10% increase compared to 1H. Transaction values also jumped, hitting AED 3.8 bn in 2H 2024, a 41% increase from 1H 2024 and a 38% spike compared to 2H 2023, according to the report.

Why is it happening? Dubai’s office boom is fueled by a wave of new businesses, multinational relocations, and local corporate expansions, Khaleej Times quotes head of research for Mena at Knight Frank Faisal Durrani as saying. The city’s zero corporate tax, pro-business policies, and lower real estate costs compared to global financial hubs have made it a magnet for companies.

In context: “Despite recent growth, office rents still trail the pre-global financial crisis. Indeed, prime rates in the DIFC are still about 50% below 2009 levels,” Durrani said.

Relief is on the way: Dubai is set to add 8.2 mn sq ft of office space by 2028, an 86% increase from the previous development cycle between 2021 and 2024. The bulk of new supply will come from major projects like DIFC Square, which will add 5.4 mn square feet, along with Tecom’s 650k sq ft and Aldar’s Sheikh Zayed Road development, which will contribute 88k sq ft. Even with this influx of new office space, rents are expected to stay elevated as demand continues to outpace supply, Durrani added.

Cabinet approves national investment strategy, targeting AED 240 bn in FDI flows

The cabinet approved the country’s new national investment strategy for the next six years at its meeting yesterday, and approved several new initiatives, Wam reports. The new investment strategy targets boosting the total stock of foreign investments to AED 2.2 tn by 2031, and annual FDI flows to AED 240 bn. This will see the share of FDI in total investments increase to above 30%, while FDI will contribute 8% of total GDP.

REMEMBER- FDI inflows came in at AED 112 bn in 2023. Dubai’s greenfield FDI projects alone attracted AED 52.3 bn in capital in 2024, while the value of UAE greenfield FDI projects fell 33% y-o-y to USD 14.5 bn (AED 53.2 bn) in 2024, normalizing after a particularly strong 2023.

ALSO APPROVED AT THE MEETING-

A national policy for combating health risk;
new regulations for organ and human tissue donation and transplantation;
allowing federal employees to work from abroad;
establishing a pharma policies committee to be headed by Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi;
and restructure the Emirates Research and Development Council and the Postal Regulatory Committee.

Three new CEPAs: The cabinet ratified three comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPA) with Malaysia, New Zealand, and Kenya.

National Bank of Fujairah leads USD 100 mn syndicated loan for clinker plant

NBF closes USD 100 mn syndicated loan for UAE cement plant: The National Bank of Fujairah (NBF) finalized a single currency term and letter of credit syndicated loan with a value of USD 100 mn to finance Pure Cement's construction of a clinker production unit and waste heat recovery power plant in the UAE, according to a press release (pdf). The unit will produce 6.5k tons of clinker daily, while the plant will generate 8.5 MW of captive power.

Who’s in? NBF served as the arranger, facility, and security agent, leading the transaction alongside Emirates NBD and The National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah, which each contributed USD 25 mn to the syndicated facility.

Where will the funds go? The funds will go towards acquisitions of plant machinery, equipment, and other fixed assets. The project has a total cost of USD 135.9 mn.

What we know about Pure Cement: The UAE-based Pure Cement awarded Thyssenkrupp Industries India (tkII) a contract to design, engineer, and supply equipment for a clinker plant in Fujairah’s Al Tawyeen region in 2023. The project, handled by tkII’s Polysius Cement division, included raw material grinding systems and pyro processing technology, and marked Pure Cement’s entry into the cement sector.

Operational resilience in 2025 and beyond

In an increasingly digital-first world, operational resilience is a necessity. As we step into 2025, CIOs and CTOs across industries must recognize that technology is not a business function; it is a vital component of operability. Ensuring resilience requires investment, foresight, and a strategic approach that extends beyond traditional risk mitigation.

At its core, operational resilience is about survival in an unpredictable environment. From geopolitical instability to climate events and cyber threats, businesses face an evolving landscape of disruptions. The question is no longer if an incident will happen, but when—and how prepared we are to withstand it.

A key area of focus is tertiary data management. The integrity of data is fundamental to resilience, and organizations must implement robust air-gapping techniques to protect against ransomware attacks. With cyber threats becoming more sophisticated, businesses must shift from reactive defenses to proactive cyber strengthening, ensuring continuous monitoring and rapid response capabilities.

Additionally, technology leaders must balance innovation with architectural stability. The rapid adoption of AI and automation has the potential to create operational risks if implemented without proper safeguards. Just as an aircraft relies on a well-prepared runway, new technologies must be integrated into an ecosystem designed for stability, security, and efficiency. A misstep here could lead to data breaches, runaway costs, and systemic failures.

Legacy systems also pose a significant challenge. Outdated technology is a bottleneck for resilience, requiring businesses to make strategic decisions on modernization. Whether through phased upgrades or complete overhauls, CTOs must ensure that critical systems remain adaptable and secure.

Beyond infrastructure, regulatory compliance is another pillar of resilience. With payment modernization, evolving cybersecurity mandates, and data sovereignty requirements varying across jurisdictions, businesses must stay agile in managing compliance across multiple regulatory frameworks.

Finally, operational resilience is about people. Talent retention, upskilling, and fostering a culture of adaptability are essential to maintaining a resilient technology organization. The war for tech talent is real, and organizations that fail to invest in their teams will struggle to navigate future challenges.

As we look ahead, resilience is an ongoing journey. CTOs and CIOs must embrace a holistic approach that integrates cybersecurity, data integrity, technology modernization, regulatory agility, and talent strategy. The organizations that prioritize resilience today will be the ones leading the digital economy of tomorrow.

Mohamed Abdel Razek, Group Head of Tech, Transformation & Information at Mashreq

Dubai’s property market rally nears record highs + Another regional business hub contender?

Dubai’s property market is back in the international spotlight: Dubai’s real estate market is approaching a historic bull run, with the Financial Times reporting that the 50-month rally is closing in on the 57-month record set before the 2008 real estate crash. Property prices surged 75% since 2021 to nearly AED 1.8k per sqft, with villa prices in gated communities and golf estates more than doubling, according to data provider Reidin.

The rally is driven by Dubai’s growing population, which exceeded 3.8 mn in 2024, fueled by soaring demand from high-net-worth individuals, professionals, and long-term expats drawn by Dubai’s liberalized visa policies and pandemic-era openness. Analysts say post-2008 mortgage reforms, including higher down payments, have also strengthened market resilience.

But is a slowdown coming? Some warn that “massive competition” among developers could cool price growth, with firms like Danube marketing one-bed flats “for the price of a studio” and MAG Group’s Talal Al Gaddah predicting price undercutting. Developers have some 300k new homes planned by 2029, according to a previous Knight Frank report.

ALSO- Another regional business hub contender? Qatar is emerging as a new rival in the Gulf’s financial hub race, challenging Dubai and Abu Dhabi longstanding dominance, Bloomberg reports. The likes of BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners and venture capital firms are increasingly setting up in Doha, supported by increased activity from its sovereign wealth fund the Qatar Investment Authority after domestic spending needs decline post-World Cup 2022.

Adnoc taps AIQ for USD 340 mn agentic AI deployment

AI-

Adnoc struck a USD 340 mn agreement with its AI JV with Presight, AIQ, to deploy AI solutions across Adnoc’s supply chain, it said in a press release (pdf). The three-year partnership will see EnergyAi rolled out across Adnoc’s upstream operations, and will include seismic analysis, geological modeling and real-time process monitoring, to expedite business processes.

REMEMBER- ADX-listed data analytics firm Presight AI acquired a 51% stake in AIQ last year, in a transaction that valued AIQ, originally Adnoc and G42’s JV, at USD 1.4 bn. EnergyAI is an autonomous AI solution created in 2024 by Adnoc, in collaboration with G42, Microsoft, and AIQ. The AI agent was said to be able to speed up seismic surveys from months to days, and increase the accuracy of production forecasts by up to 90%.

STARTUPS-

Phoenix Venture Partners closes private placement for tech-startups fund: ADGM-based venture capital firm Phoenix Venture Partners (PVP) closed its first private placement for the Phoenix Venture Partners Innovation Fund, it said in a press release. Professional investors, family offices and high-net-work individuals (HNWIs) took part in the private placement. The value of the first close was not disclosed, but the firm plans to raise USD 50 mn by the end of March 2026. It secured an ADGM license last September.

Where will the funds go? PVP will target early-stage tech startups, regionally and amongst G20 countries, they said. It will also focus on startups using tech within the financial, healthcare, education, agrifood systems, logistics and mobility, energy and sustainability, and consumer goods sectors.

PAYMENTS-

#1- UAE digital payment security gets an upgrade: The Innovation Hub of the Emirates Institute of Finance and the Federal Authority for Identity, Citizenship, Customs, and Port Security have partnered with several financial entities to integrate biometrics into payment processes, state news agency Wam reports. This will be integrated into the Central Bank’s instant payment platform Aani and local payment card system Jaywan. The financial entities include Emirates NBD, Sharjah Islamic Bank, Al Maryah Local Bank, and fintech companies PayBy and Tabby.

#2- Al Etihad Payments + Visa launch co-badged Jaywan-Visa cards in UAE: Al Etihad Payments, a subsidiary of the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), has partnered with Visa to introduce Jaywan-Visa debit and prepaid cards, which enable both local and international payments, according to a press release.

ICYMI- Jaywan cards are domestic cards issued by the CBUAE using licensing technology from Indian payment operator NPCI. The cards are being rolled out in phases among local banks, with all banks in the UAE expected to transition to Jaywan for debit cards within the next two years.

Breaking it down: Domestic transactions via the new card will be processed through the national card electronic switch UAESwitch, while payments outside the GCC will be handled by VisaNet. Cardholders can use their cards at Visa’s 150 mn partner merchants across 200 countries for international purchases and online shopping. Al Etihad Payments and Visa will work with local banks, fintechs, and merchants to roll out the co-badged cards.

Al Etihad also partnered with China’s UnionPay International to introduce UnionPay-Jaywan co-badged cards, enabling domestic and international payments in more than 180 countries through UnionPay, according to a press release.

#3- Careem Pay expands remittance service to Egypt: UAE residents can now send money directly to Egyptian bank accounts via Careem Pay, Careem's digital payments platform, according to a press release. The service claims to offer an exchange rate up to 50% lower than traditional banks, according to the company.

IN CONTEXT- Egypt is among the top five destinations for UAE remittances, with annual transfers estimated at USD 10 bn in recent years.

REMEMBER- Careem Pay enables transfers of up to AED 150k per transaction and up to AED 450k monthly to supported countries via SEPA, with 80% processed in under 30 minutes at rates 50% below banks.

LOGISTICS-

Metal Park lands at Kezad: Local metal producer Metal Park launched the first phase of its new AED 110 mn storage facility in Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad), according to statements here and here. The project is slated to be completed in three phases with a total storage capacity of 350k mt once operational as well as 54k cmb storage space specifically for metals. The facility has direct access to Khalifa Port through a modular road, Etihad Rail’s network, and highways linking Abu Dhabi to the rest of the country. AD Ports Group inked an agreement with Metal Park to establish the hub back in 2022.

ENERGY-

Dewa explores energy collaboration with EPRI: The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) and the US’ Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) met to explore collaboration in implementing specialized training programs in areas including renewable energy, grid modernization, and energy storage, according to a press release. R&D and energy innovation were also discussed.

US trade war could trigger more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies globally

The ongoing US trade war might push global economies to tweak their monetary and fiscal policies to account for tariff shocks, Fitch Solutions said. Last week, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and doubled tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%. He also announced plans to apply 25% tariffs on EU imports, and plans to place additional 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports starting this week.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

It’s all about inflation and interest rates: To counteract economic slowdowns caused by tariffs, central banks may consider lowering interest rates, but their ability to do so varies across countries. The flexibility of monetary policy depends on how closely inflation aligns with targets and whether interest rates have room for adjustment compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Where do developed economies stand? The European Central Bank and central banks in Australia and Canada may have more capacity to cut rates due to inflation remaining near target. The US and UK stand in a middle position, with some ability to adjust rates but with inflation concerns potentially limiting aggressive reductions. Japan, facing an inflation rate of 4%—double its target—and a minimal policy rate spread, has little room for monetary easing. Meanwhile, China’s policy rate is already far below its 2015–2019 average, significantly reducing its ability to introduce further cuts.

For emerging markets, monetary policy flexibility is closely tied to economic stability. Countries with strong current account balances can lower interest rates with fewer concerns about currency depreciation or capital outflows. However, nations such as Brazil, Romania, and Poland face challenges due to above-target inflation and weaker external conditions, making interest rate cuts more difficult.

Governments looking to respond through fiscal measures such as increased spending or tax cuts face significant limitations. Resources have been strained by recovery efforts following the covid-19 pandemic and the surge in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. Countries such as Germany, South Korea, and Australia, with relatively lower debt and manageable deficits, have more room to implement fiscal stimulus. In contrast, nations like France, Italy, Japan, and the UK, which are burdened with high government debt and fiscal deficits, have little flexibility to maneuver.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

The sell-off on Wall Street extended to Asian markets, with Japan’s Nikkei falling 1.7%, while Topix fell 2%, and South Korea’s Kospi is down 1.5%. China was not spared, with the CSI 3000 falling 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index down 0.9% in early trade.

Wall Street futures indicate a lower open later today, as concerns over a potential recession continue to drag down stocks.

ADX	9,393	-0.6% (YTD: -0.3%)
DFM	5,136	-1.7% (YTD: -0.5%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,220	-1.5% (YTD: +1.3%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.3% o/n	4.4% 1 yr
TASI	11,746	-0.8% (YTD: -2.6%)
EGX30	31,137	0.0% (YTD: +4.7%)
S&P 500	5,615	-2.7% (YTD: -4.5%)
FTSE 100	8,600	-0.9% (YTD: +5.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,387	-1.5% (YTD: +10.0%)
Brent crude	USD 69.23	-1.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.46	-0.7%
Gold	USD 2,892	-0.2%
BTC	USD 79,442	-1.1% (YTD: -15.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.6% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. The index is down 0.3% YTD.

In the green: Sharjah Cement and Industrial Development (+9.3%), Emirates Telecom Group (+2.5%) and Eshraq Investments (+2.2%).

In the red: Umm Al Qaiwain General Investment (-9.9%), Pure Health Holding (-7.2%) and Space42 (-6.5%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 1.7% on turnover of AED 686.1 mn. Nasdaq Dubai was down 1.5%, and up 1.3% YTD.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Adnoc petrochemicals JV Borouge appointed Al Ramz Capital as its liquidity provider, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). Following regulatory approvals, Al Ramz will begin trading Borouge’s shares within specified parameters starting today.

Cryptocurrency company Phoenix Group’s CEO Munaf Ali (LinkedIn) has increased his stake in the company, acquiring 20 mn ordinary shares through direct market purchase since November 2024, according to a press release.

Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) will distribute AED 3 bn in dividends to its shareholders for 2024, it said in a disclosure (pdf) to the ADX. This represents 83.43 fils per share and 83.43% of its paid-up capital.

NBQ considers AED 360 mn in dividends: The National Bank of Umm Al Quwain ’s (NBQ) board approved the distribution of AED 360 mn, or 18% of its paid-up capital, in dividends for 2024, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the ADX.

CALENDAR

MARCH

7 February-29 April (Friday-Tuesday): The Abu Dhabi Festival, Abu Dhabi.

11 March (Tuesday): Alpha Data shares begin trading.

18-19 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

29 March (Saturday): New traffic regulations and minimum driving age to take effect.

31 March-2 April (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Fitr, national holiday.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1Q 2025:

The first eight fronds of the Palm Jebel Ali will be site-ready, allowing for the commencement of villa infrastructure and civil works.

APRIL

1 April (Tuesday): New ADGM employment regulations come into effect.

1 April (Tuesday): New personal status law comes into effect.

1 April (Tuesday): Cabinet to roll out new tightened merger control rules,

6-11 April (Sunday-Friday): Geo-Spatial Week, Dubai.

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Investment Summit, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): World Local Production Forum's 3rd edition, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

11-13 April (Friday-Sunday): I-Film Festival, Yas Creative Hub, Abu Dhabi.

12-13 April (Saturday-Sunday): Global Justice, Love & Peace Summit, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City Dubai.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Dubai Woodshow, Dubai World Trade Center

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): IPS congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

14-26 April (Monday-Saturday): Solana Economic Zone, Dubai.

15-17 April (Tuesday-Thursday): The Abu Dhabi Global Health Week, Adnec center, Abu Dhabi.

15 April (Tuesday): The Global Islamic FinTech Forum 2025, Dusit Thani Hotel, Dubai.

16-17 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The FastBull Finance Summit, Coca Cola Arena, Dubai.

16-18 April (Wednesday-Friday): World Future Energy Summit,Abu Dhabi National Exhibition, Abu Dhabi.

21-25 April (Monday-Friday): The Dubai AI Week, Museum of the Future and Area 2071, Emirates Towers, Dubai.

22-24 April (Tuesday-Thursday): DOMOTEX Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

25 April-11 May (Friday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai World Trade Center.

28 April-1 May (Monday-Thursday): The Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center

28 April-2 May (Monday-Friday): The 64th Annual Conference of the International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers’ Associations (IFATCA)

Signposted to happen sometime in April:

Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League, Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi

MAY

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Ports Forum, Dubai.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

6-8 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Centre.

13-16 May (Tuesday-Friday): International Union for Health Promotion and Education Conference, Abu Dhabi.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Annual HR Tech MENA, Dubai.

13-15 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Cabsat Middle East and Satellite Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

15 May (Thursday-Sunday): The Economy Middle East Summit, ADGM, Abu Dhabi.

15-18 May (Thursday-Sunday): The GLA Global Logistics Conference, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

16-18 May (Friday-Sunday): GISEC, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-22 May (Monday-Thursday): Make it in the Emirates, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

20-22 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East 2025, Dubai World Trade Center.

23-25 May (Friday-Sunday): EuroLeague Final Four, Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi.

26-28 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arab Media Summit, World Trade Center, Dubai.

30 May (Friday): Arafat Day.

31 May-2 June (Saturday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

Signposted to happen sometime in May:

Asean and summit, Malaysia.

JUNE

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Middle East Rail, Dubai World Trade Center.

27 June (Friday): Islamic New Year.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

JULY

6-7 July (Sunday-Monday): BRICS Summit, Rio de Janeiro.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): DigiHealth exhibition, World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-14 September (Friday-Sunday): The International Real Estate and Investment Show, Abu Dhabi.

16-17 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mohammed Bin Rashid Leadership Forum, Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development, Dubai.

OCTOBER

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Symposium on the System of Radiological Protection, the Ritz-Carlton Abu Dhabi, Grand Canal.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

15-17 November (Saturday-Monday): Myplant & Garden Middle East Green Expo, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow 2025, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)
The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Global Implementation Support Symposium, Abu Dhabi.
Universal Postal Congress 2025, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in the fall of 2025:

2025 Games of the Future, Dubai.
ICOM General Conference 2025, Dubai

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.
12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference 2026, UAE
9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit’s fourth edition, UAE

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime between 2027 and 2029:

The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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