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Dubai’s property market wrapped up 2024 with solid price growth as listings fell amid rising demand, with average residential values climbing 2.7% q-o-q in 4Q 2024, according to Knight Frank’s latest quarterly Dubai Residential Market Review (pdf). This brings the total increase in value for the year to 19.1%, with villas appreciating 20.2% and apartments up 18.9%, and pushes overall prices 13.3% above their 2014 peak.
Supply tightened further, with the number of residential listings down 30%, while prime segment listings dropped 52%, Faisal Durrani, Knight Frank’s head of research for MENA, told Khaleej Times.
End users are starting to dominate the market: “We have noted a rise in genuine end users, rather than speculative purchasers that have defined previous cycles,” said Faisal Durrani, partner and head of research for Mena at Knight Frank.
Ultra-luxury homes priced over USD 25 mn saw an 85% drop in listings, driven by growing demand from m’naires and ultra high net worth individuals relocating to Dubai, Durrani said.
ICYMI- Dubai maintained its global lead for home sales over USD 10 mn for the second consecutive year, with 435 transactions in 2024, including a record 153 sales in 4Q, according to a previous Knight Frank report. Limited supply also continued to support the market, with listings of properties over USD 10 mn declining by 40%.
This won’t last too long: Some 302k units are under construction for delivery by 2029, with apartments making up 80% of the pipeline, according to Knight Frank. However, historical trends indicate a 30% delay in actual completions, with just over half of the 60k units expected in 2024 making it to market, according to Knight Frank.
We know the sector is in for a price correction soon: Knight Frank previously forecast prices to grow 8% this year, while Moody’s forecasted a dip or stabilization in Dubai’s property market over the next 12 to 18 months, as developers face rising construction costs and potential delivery delays, alongside a large pipeline of pre-sales set for completion over the next two to three years. A Deloitte report similarly projected that residential price and rent growth may slow by year-end as new supply enters the market.
