THIS MORNING: Fujairah has become the UAE’s primary export route + the NBA gives the UAE a pass (for now)

Good morning, everyone. Fingerprints of the war are starting to show through on the economic evidence, even as trade routes keep adapting around it.

The UAE’s GDP growth slowed to 3% in 1Q, that’s down from 3.9% a year earlier and covers a period that only captured the very start of the conflict, meaning that the real cost of the war will only show when the 2Q print is here.

The disruption has already reshaped export routes, however, with Fujairah now becoming the UAE’s primary oil export route rather than just simply a backup, accounting for 66% of total exports last month.

As the Emirates pushes for a bilateral CEPA with the UK beyond the GCC-UK agreement, analysts tell us how a UAE-UK agreement would go further, and which sectors one could cover.

PLUS- DP World is building out its Africa footprint again, agreeing to develop a special economic zone less than 20 km from Kenya’s Port of Mombasa.

Fewer barrels out

Fujairah has become the UAE's primary oil export route, not just a backup: Crude bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via Fujairah — including through the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline — rose to 2.13 mn bbl / d in July, according to tanker-tracking data pooled by Bloomberg, and to 2.28 mn bbl / d on Kpler’s own count, up from 2.17 mn in June — putting Fujairah's share of total UAE exports at roughly 66%, up from 51% in June.

That shift tracks a sharp deterioration in the strait itself: Crude and condensate exports from the UAE overall fell to 3.4 mn bbl / d in July from 3.77 mn bbl / d in June, per the data. Kpler's separate Hormuz-only count is starker: exports through the strait fell nearly 53% to 950k bbl / d, from 2.01 mn bbl / d in June, the National reports. Daily crossings fell to 18.7 in July from 24.7 in June, with the drop-off steepening as a 17 June US-Iran framework meant to reopen the strait broke down within weeks over a dispute about who controls it.

The numbers likely understate the disruption: Most tankers crossing Hormuz now cut their tracking systems to dodge detection, so Vortexa and Kpler are reconstructing transits from satellite imagery with a lag — meaning real-time crossings often aren't caught until later revisions. Tanker congestion from the strait closures has eased, though, and only about 1 mn bbl of UAE crude is currently stranded.

NBA gives UAE a pass

It’s bad news for basketball fans as the fallout from the regional conflict spills over into yet another sector. The NBA is skipping out on playing preseason games in the region, sources told ESPN. While nothing has been confirmed, the league had been floating the idea of possibly playing fixtures in Abu Dhabi and Doha. The UAE has already seen a number of event cancellations due to the war.

On the bright side, games will be coming to Abu Dhabi at some point in the future, they said, after the league renewed its collaboration partnership with the Department of Culture and Tourism.

BACKGROUND- The NBA was previously reported to be actively pursuing partnerships in the UAE, as well as Qatar, and it had partnered with sovereign wealth fund ADQ on fan engagement in the past.

Data point

28% — that's how much UAE jewelry demand fell in 2Q 2026, even as gold coin and bar purchases jumped 30% y-o-y to 5.3 tons, according to World Gold Council data picked up by Khaleej Times. The split signals a move away from discretionary spending and toward gold as an investment and safe-haven play, with UAE buyers favoring bars and coins over jewelry for their liquidity and clean ownership structure.

PSA

WEATHER- It’s another scorcher: Temperatures in Dubai are set to peak at 46°C before cooling to a low of 35°C, while Abu Dhabi will see a high of 47°C and a low of 33°C, according to our favorite weather app.

The big story abroad

The regional war is on the front pages once again, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying that the US and Iran could reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz today. The proposed arrangement would allow freedom of movement in the waterway, Bessent said.

Speaking of Washington, the Trump administration has shelled out some USD 100 bn in tariff refunds since the Supreme Court said that it did not have the authority to use emergency powers to place levies on US trading partners. The figure paid represents 60% of the levies associated with US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff frenzy announced last year.

AI models by OpenAI and Anthropic are in hot water once again, after reportedly taking unauthorized online actions and attempting to deploy harmful code — the latest breaches raising concerns that developers cannot fully control their AI systems. The UK government’s AI Security Institute reported that one model attempted to add harmful code to an open-source software project on cloud-based hosting service Github.

Procter & Gamble has acquired supplement maker Thorne for USD 3.8 bn, expanding the firm’s foothold in a business that has been on the upswing since the Covid-19 pandemic. P&G aims to fortify its position in premium wellness, noting that consumer interest in self-care, prevention, and wellness is widening. The allcash bid will close by 4Q.

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