THIS MORNING: UAE plans 5-7 Cepas before year-end + Dubai incentivizes inviting visitors to the emirate

Good morning, friends. It’s a story of contrasts for UAE real estate today — one market is pausing for breath as another pushes ahead with a mega-project.

Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s office markets cooling in 2Q is our big story today, but for different reasons. Dubai rents stopped climbing for the first time since 1H 2021, while Abu Dhabi leasing volumes fell for the first time in the current cycle.

But developers are still pricing in longer-term growth as opposed to short-term headwinds: Aldar has launched its AED 100 bn Marsa Al Saadiyat project, the final phase of Saadiyat Island's development which is set to house more than 58k residents.

On the logistics side, the UAE is beefing up its east coast export options, with DP World striking a deal with Fujairah Ports Authority to build two new deepwater terminals as disruption in Hormuz continues. Elsewhere, the UAE's trade diplomacy push continues apace, with the government eyeing five to seven more CEPAs before year-end.

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More CEPAs on the way

The UAE plans to finalize another five to seven comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPA) by year-end, Foreign Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi told state news agency Wam. The country has now signed 37 CEPAs, with 18 already in force, and more on the way.

In the cards: Negotiations with around 20 countries are currently underway, with agreements with the Eurasian Economic Union and the Philippines expected to enter into force in the next two to three months. Talks with Rwanda, Ghana, and Zambia are in the final stages, and those with Canada are nearing completion, he said. Talks with Bangladesh and Peru are also making progress.

Some are taking longer: Negotiations on the EU-UAE agreement are progressing more slowly than expected, Al Zeyoudi said. In January, the minister said the talks were in their final stretch, after kicking off in April the year before.

Other CEPA ambitions: The UAE is eyeing a bilateral CEPA of its own with London that would go beyond the wider GCC-UK trade agreement. The Emirates is also looking to join one of the world’s biggest trade blocs, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which agreed to kick off preparatory discussions on UAE accession last month.

L’Imad-backed Paramount takeover gets EU greenlight

Paramount's L’Imad-backed USD 110 bn Warner Bros. Discovery buyout just got a green light in Brussels, with the European Commission clearing the acquisition this week, conditional on Paramount ending its distribution tie-up with Universal in Europe within 13 months of closing, the Commission said. It's the latest regulator to sign off — Bloomberg reports bodies across some 65 jurisdictions have now cleared or declined to challenge the merger.

The move comes the same week as a US federal judge paused the Gulf-backed tie-up — which is bankrolled by the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the Qatar Investment Authority through L'imad Holding — on a “strong showing” it hurts competition, after 12 states sued to block it.

What's next: The US hearing on 3 August decides whether the pause holds until trial. Every day past September the transactions doesn't close costs Paramount ticking fees owed to WBD shareholders — and a loss in court could trigger a USD 7 bn termination fee, on top of the USD 2.8 bn it already paid Netflix to walk away.

PSA

You can now unlock rewards when friends and family visit Dubai, with the emirate looking to turn its large expat population into tourism ambassadors with a new incentive program that rewards them for hosting visitors, Wam reports. The move comes as the emirate rolls out support and fiscal packages targeting tourism and the wider private sector since the war started.

The details: The “A Dubai Invite” program runs until 31 October, 2026, offering residents of around 200 nationalities reductions on hotel bookings of up to 45%, resort credits across the city, and transport perks. Residents can register guests until 30 September, with arrivals verified by Dubai’s General Directorate of Identity and Foreigners Affairs. Each resident can claim benefits for up to three guest groups.

WEATHER- Expect the usual hot and humid weather today, with a high of 42°C in Dubai and 41°C in Abu Dhabi, before it cools to an overnight low of 31°C, according to our favorite weather app.

The big story abroad

Escalations in the Red Sea and other regional geopolitical news and earnings season are keeping front pages busy. The Houthis said they hit two oil tankers in the Red Sea, with the UK's Maritime Trade Operations Center confirming a tanker was struck off Al Shuqaiq on Saudi Arabia's coast.

Brent jumped past USD 95 a barrel in the minutes after, given the important role the Red Sea has played as a workaround for Gulf crude exports while the Strait of Hormuz stays a war zone. US Centcom confirmed a 12th night of strikes on Iran the same evening, and Kuwait said it fended off an Iranian drone incursion.

MEANWHILE- The US and Saudi Arabia signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement on Wednesday that hands the kingdom a pathway to enrich uranium on its own soil, a latitude Washington has refused its other Gulf partners. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman signed the pact — a “123 agreement” under the US Atomic Energy Act — alongside a bilateral safeguards agreement, the US Department of Energy said. The deal runs 30 years and involves American firms supplying the technology and expertise to build out the Saudi program.

Further away from home: Alphabet raised its 2026 capex guidance to USD 195-205 bn, up from USD 190 bn and well above the roughly USD 186 bn Wall Street had modeled, even as cloud revenue jumped. The market didn't love it — shares fell 4% after hours. Tesla, meanwhile, saw its adjusted earnings of USD 0.33 a share miss the USD 0.51 Wall Street expected, and the company burned USD 1.1 bn in cashflow — its first negative quarter in two years — as AI, robotics, and Cybercab spending outpaced the auto business's gains.

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