The war is testing the UAE’s status as a popular study-abroad destination for Indian students: While the UAE has seen a drastic surge in enrolments from India in recent years, regional uncertainty due to the war is leading Indian students and families to price risk into their choice of study destinations. That comes as the war tests the Emirates’ main selling point for Indian university students — the promise of a safe, nearby, low-cost alternative to Western education.

The UAE market is heavily skewed toward undergraduate Indian students, making it particularly sensitive to parental risk perception at this stage, Praneet Singh, assistant VP of study abroad at education firm UpGrad, tells EnterpriseAM. He describes the current instability as “unprecedented for a country seen as among the safest globally.”

“The ceasefire will not change sentiment until peace returns in the Middle East. It will take time […] people are confused,” says Sanjay Narang, center director of Delhi at KC Overseas Education. “We were doing so well in the UAE. It was the closest and most secure option, but the war has shaken confidence.” Visa hurdles in the US and Canada, a weak job market in the UK, affordability concerns in Australia, and capacity intake and language limits in Europe are all factors that have limited options for students.

It has an immediate impact: A 10-15% drop in applications from India is expected if disruptions persist through June, says Singh. In Dubai, regulators have endorsed remote learning till 17 April, and campuses are yet to provide firm timelines for resumption.

The next 4-6 weeks will be critical for decision-making, when fee deposits are paid, and travel decisions are locked in. Undergraduate students are highly exposed with limited flexibility to defer, unlike postgraduates, Narang explains. Most admitted for the April intake in the UAE have deferred enrolment to September.

In the interim: Some families are considering options such as starting in private Indian institutions or markets like Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, or New Zealand, though course options in these countries are much narrower and costs are steeper, according to Narang. Some universities are offering hybrid packages — a year of study in India followed by overseas completion — such as Australia’s Deakin University. These pathways are gaining traction as families seek flexibility, he said.

Emirati institutions moved quickly to contain disruptions with online classes or advanced summer breaks while “overcommunicating” with students through check-ins and helplines, Singh tells us. Upgrad has not received any panic-driven transfer requests so far, he added.

Cost is a key stabilizer: Moving from the UAE to the UK, the US, or Canada would raise expenses by as much as USD 42k, limiting the likelihood of abrupt migration despite safety concerns, argues Singh. “The UAE’s return on investment, career outcomes, and residency pathways like the Golden Visa remain intact” and will likely re-anchor demand once hostilities subside. Institutions, however, may have to compete harder on flexibility, refunds, and mobility pathways to offset perceived risk.

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